sveumrules

Adrian Houser threw 69 not so nice IP with a 5.84 ERA | 4.93 FIP as a member of the Mets. Tyrone Taylor has 768 PA of 79 wRC+ for 1.2 WAR with the Mets. He was traded in part because we had just picked up Blake Perkins (829 PA of 81 wRC+ for 2.5 WAR so far) for free. I hereby propose that Coleman Crow's nickname should be GRAVY.

All managers do really dumb things. That the Brewers have the 2nd highest winning percentage in MLB since Murphy took over is probably a pretty good sign that he does really dumb things with less frequency than other MLB skippers.

So there are 365 days in a year and over the last two plus seasons Pat Murphy has now managed 365 games. The Brewers have scored the fourth most runs in MLB (1,792) over the last two plus years while allowing thee fewest runs in MLB (1,424) for a +368 run differential over that span. The 2017 (+35), 2018 (+95), 2019 (+3), 2021 (+115), 2022 (+37) and 2023 (+81) teams combined for a +366 run differential over 973 games.

The Brewers five best hitters when everyone is healthy are Turang, Contreras, Yelich, Chourio, and Vaughn so ideally they would bat one through five in some order. Given that Murphy likes to stagger L/R when possible, and three of those guys are righty, and Chourio is the fastest of the three is probably most of the answer. Though for his career Chourio has 532 PA batting second versus 295 PA leading off for whatever that is or isn't worth. Another wrinkle to maybe consider are the bases empty versus RISP splits of the players in question (all numbers since Chourio's first season in 2024)... Chourio MPTY: 693 PA of 118 wRC+ RISP: 274 PA of 121 wRC+ Yelich MPTY: 533 PA of 119 wRC+ RISP: 280 PA of 147 wRC+ Contreras MPTY: 811 PA of 109 wRC+ RISP: 432 PA of 142 wRC+ Turang MPTY: 853 PA of 96 wRC+ RISP: 379 PA of 141 wRC+ Vaughn MPTY: 134 PA of 155 wRC+ RISP: 96 PA of 162 wRC+ Jackson is fractions off Yelich for the best bases empty production (excluding Vaughn's small sample though he isn't really a typical leadoff candidate anyway) but is considerably lower than the other four with RISP, so that could be another factor playing into things. A little more zoomed out answer would be that the way the league in general views lineup construction has changed to emphasize getting your best hitters the most plate appearances. League average wRC+ for a leadoff hitter was a couple two tree points higher than league average wRC+ for a cleanup hitter in each of 2023 (111 to 108), 2024 (109 to 106), and 2025 (110 to 108).

All teams runs per game ranked, Brewers ranked #5 out of 30. Yay! Good thing MLB isn't just an HR Derby (yet).

Jesus MadeLuis PenaLogan HendersonLuis LaraCooper PrattJett WilliamsJeferson QueroMarco DingesJosh AdamczewskiBraylon PayneAndrew FischerBlake BurkeShane DrohanColeman CrowRobert GasserCraig YohoBishop LetsonTyson HardinJosh KnothDylan O'Rae ONE and TWO Made and Pena are a class of their own THREE Henderson should be graduating soon with 33 IP of 59 ERA- | 60 FIP- under his belt prior to his 0510 start against NYY FOUR thru SEVEN The AAA gang ranked by personal pref EIGHT thru TWELVE The A+ gang plus Burke again ranked by personal pref THIRTEEN thru SIXTEEN Interesting MLB pitching depth SEVENTEEN thru NINETEEN Next wave of arms TWENTY Fun return from a lost 2025 season for DO'R

The 2021 staff put up an 83 ERA- and 87 FIP- which are both the best full season marks in franchise history, They had Woodruff (179 IP of 61 ERA- | 69 FIP-), Burnes (167 IP of 58 ERA- | 38 FIP-), Peralta (144 IP of 67 ERA- | 73 FIP-), Houser (142 IP of 77 ERA- | 101 FIP-), Lauer (118 IP of 76 ERA- | 94 FIP-), Suter (73 IP of 73 ERA- | 91 FIP-), Boxberger (64 IP of 79 ERA- | 85 FIP-), Hader (58 IP of 29 ERA- | 39 FIP-), Williams (54 IP of 59 ERA- | 66 FIP-), heck even Hunter Strickland (36 IP of 41 ERA- | 86 FIP-) and Jake Cousins (30 IP of 64 ERA- | 90 FIP-) chipped in some. Now here we are five years later with the youngest pitching staff in baseball by over half a year on BRef, rocking an 85 ERA- and 85 FIP- entering tonight's game. Granted we're talking 38 games versus 162 games so there's still a long ways to go, but to be in a position to challenge for the best staff in franchise history coming up on a quarter way into the season with such a young group is pretty exciting stuff.

Payne doubled, walked, and stole a base. Adamczewski had a single and sac fly. That's really all you need to know from the Wisco box.

Rylan Mills continues to bang with his second bomb of the year though the ACL Crew trails 6 to 3 after five.

HITTERS Brewers 97 wRC+ (19th) | 5.13 R/G (5th) | +2.06 WPA (4th) Padres 92 wRC+ (25th) | 4.25 R/G (20th) | +1.59 WPA (5th) [both teams have been opportunistic on offense ranking 1st and 2nd in FanGraphs Clutch metric] STARTING PITCHERS Brewers 85 ERA- (6th) | 88 FIP- (3rd) | +1.44 WPA (7th) Padres 116 ERA- (26th) | 101 FIP- (19th) | +0.50 WPA (16th) [clear edge to the Brewers here] RELIEF PITCHERS Brewers 85 ERA- (6th) | 81 FIP- (3rd) | -0.50 WPA (24th) Padres 90 ERA- (8th) | 79 FIP- (2nd) | +1.91 WPA (4th) [not too different on a rate basis in terms of either run prevention or peripherals, but big leverage advantage for the Padres with only five credited losses for their pen on the season versus eight for the Brewers. Arrows pointing in opposite directions though with Brewers relievers at -1.52 WPA (25th) thru April 25th but +1.03 WPA (8th) since while the Padres were at +2.12 WPA (3rd) thru April 25th but -0.21 WPA (25th) since] FanGraphs gives the Brewers 54.4% Playoff Odds compared to 38.2% for the Padres while PECOTA has it as 66.3% for the Brewers versus 45.2% for the Padres. If we flip FanGraphs from their default projections over to Season to Date mode it jumps to 82.8% Playoff Odds for the Brewers and 46.8% for the Padres. Looks like FG's Season to Date mode also slightly favors the Brewers (41.5%) over the Cubs (36.1%) to win the division at this point.

Gray has had a pretty interesting career. RHP under six feet tall are a rarity, but since his first full season in 2014 Sonny has managed to throw the third most IP in MLB anyway. His K rate has jumped around all over the place though and it's kinda coincided with him moving between the American League and NL Central teams... 2014-18 OAK/NYY (836 IP) 99 K+ | 104 BB+ | 79 HR+ 122 GB+ | 78 FB+ 93 ERA- | 94 FIP- [pretty blah K/BB rates with good HR suppression on account of a strong ground ball rate] 2019-21 CIN (366 IP) 122 K+ | 108 BB+ | 76 HR+ 114 GB+ | 86 FB+ 77 ERA- | 78 FIP- [big spike in K rate levels Gray up a couple notches, trades some ground balls for fly balls] 2022-23 MIN (303 IP) 106 K+ | 88 BB+ | 50 HR+ 110 GB+ | 85 FB+ 71 ERA- | 74 FIP- [reduced strikeouts but big improvements in limiting walks and HR] He had done it a few different ways, but up to this point Gray had posted a 3.51 ERA and 3.61 FIP with his ERA beating his FIP in six of those ten seasons. His most consistent attributes besides being healthy were a high ground ball rate helping him to limit home runs. But things changed in more way than one when he got to the Cardinals... 2024-25 STL (347 IP) 128 K+ | 66 BB+ | 105 HR+ 102 GB+ | 92 FB+ 100 ERA- | 82 FIP- [best K and BB rates of his career, but a big spike in HRs as his ground ball rate continues to fall off. Where he previously had a history of mild FIP beating, his +0.81 wrong way differential was the fourth highest over those two seasons among 114 pitchers with at least 200 IP] In his small sample of 28 IP to start this year he has flipped the script yet again with a 3.54 ERA versus a 4.30 FIP, but StatCast thinks he's really lost it with a 5.45 xERA so far after being between 3.24 and 3.89 each season for a cumulative 3.64 xERA from 2019 to 2025. His ground ball rate has spiked back up (118 GB+) but his K rate has absolutely cratered (57 K+).

Going back to Matt Arnold's first year at the helm in 2023 thru the end of last year MLB as a whole hit for a 96 wRC+ with the bases empty and a 104 wRC+ with runners in scoring position for an eight point gap over those three seasons. The Brewers themselves during that time came in at a 95 wRC+ with the bases empty (18th) and a 116 wRC+ with RISP (3rd) for a 21 point gap which tied with the Nationals (85 to 106 wRC+) for the highest in MLB over that stretch. Cranking it up with RISP, plus the Brewers league best +41.0 BsR over those three seasons, is a big reason why their overall 102 wRC+ (17th in MLB) is nothing impressive but their 2,311 runs scored end up ten spots higher at 7th in MLB. This was not necessarily as prevalent an element in the mix for the 2017 to 2022 Stearns helmed squads who had a more standard split at 97 wRC+ bases empty versus a 105 wRC+ with RISP. In this year's small sample it's been even more extreme with the Brewers currently sporting a 78 wRC+ with the bases empty (29th) but a 137 wRC+ with RISP (2nd) that has helped them score 5.15 R/G (5th) so far despite their overall 97 wRC+ ranking only 17th. Base running has helped again too at +2.2 BsR (7th) but not quite as overwhelming as the last three years. For literally a decade now the Brewers have been "making their own luck" on the pitching side by running out stellar defenses that have helped them shave 0.16 runs per game (4th) off their FIP from 2016 to 2022, then shaving a whopping 0.45 runs per game (1st) off their FIP from 2023 to 2025. Are we seeing the Brewers starting to put together a long enough RISP track record here at three plus years now to think that maybe they aren't just getting lucky and it is the residue from some sort of good design? So far this year with neutral sequencing BaseRuns thinks the Brewers should be scoring 4.42 R/G instead of their actual 5.15 R/G. In 2025 it was 4.77 BaseRuns to 4.98 actual, 2024 was 4.77 BaseRuns to 4.80 actual, 2023 was 4.24 BaseRuns to 4.49 actual. Here are some of the individual player splits from here in the early going... Brice Turang MPTY (91 PA of 160 wRC+) wRISP (46 PA of 161 wRC+) [mister consistency] William Contreras MPTY (84 PA of 104 wRC+) wRISP (51 PA of 147 wRC+) [not too far off his 118 to 142 split from 2023 to 2025] Sal Frelick MPTY (79 PA of 96 wRC+) wRISP (36 PA of 7 wRC+) [didn't get the memo] Garrett Mitchell MPTY (70 PA of 56 wRC+) wRISP (39 PA of 213 wRC+) [get this man a Mountain Dew Code Red. EXTREME. 41.4 K% bases empty versus 28.2 K% with RISP] Luis Rengifo MPTY (67 PA of 26 wRC+) wRISP (40 PA of 20 wRC+) [mister consistency, but not in a good way. Hitting for a 1.038 OPS over 17 PA with just a runner on 1st though] Jake Bauers MPTY (66 PA of 117 wRC+) wRISP (46 PA of 170 wRC+) [has a 6.1 BB% and .177 ISO bases empty versus a 19.6 BB% and .324 ISO with RISP] David Hamilton MPTY (61 PA of 0 wRC+) wRISP (25 PA of 212 wRC+) [no comments, put in frame, send to the Louvre] Gary Sanchez MPTY (51 PA of 146 wRC+) wRISP (28 PA of 177 wRC+) [the anti-Rengifo with only a .330 OPS over his 19 PA with just a runner on 1st] Brandon Lockridge MPTY (51 PA of 67 wRC+) wRISP (30 PA of 202 wRC+) [heal up quickly please] Joey Ortiz MPTY (48 PA of 33 wRC+) wRISP (31 PA of 100 wRC+) [even Joey getting in on the action but still no extra base hits in those 31 PA with RISP] Blake Perkins MPTY (26 PA of -39 wRC+) wRISP (19 PA of 78 wRC+) [pales in comparison to his 131 wRC+ vs LHP and -68 wRC+ vs RHP split so far this year] Christian Yelich MPTY (22 PA of 30 wRC+) wRISP (18 PA of 204 wRC+) [all the kids look to old man Yelly for guidance] Tyler Black MPTY (12 PA of 9 wRC+) wRISP (10 PA of 318 wRC+) [ice cold Canadian blood coursing through his veins]

Adamczewski only has a 19.6% strikeout rate so far this year (21 K / 107 PA). Think maybe you were seeing his Steamer projected MLB K-rate (25.6%) that is one row down on his FanGraphs page?

A Tale of Three Seasons... 0326 to 0406 (8 W - 2 L) 133 wRC+ | 6.8 R/G 90 ERA- | 105 FIP- 3.8 RA/G | 1 bullpen loss [bats carry us to glory, pitching looks like a normal Brewers FIP beating kind of scenario] 0407 to 0425 (5 W - 11 L) 68 wRC+ | 3.7 R/G 103 ERA- | 88 FIP- 4.7 RA/G | 7 bullpen losses [regression comes fast and strong for the bats, but the pitcher peripherals show some improvement] 0426 to 0509 (8 W - 3 L) 104 wRC+ | 5.8 R/G 54 ERA- | 61 FIP- 2.3 RA/G | 0 bullpen losses [pitching across the board dominant allowing only 25 runs over the last 11 games, bats rounding into shape with the 2025 Brewers posting a 107 wRC+ and scoring 4.98 R/G for comparison]

BRef pitcher WAR includes an adjustment for team defense that generally dings Brewers pitchers to some extent. For instance, Corbin Burnes had 15.2 WAR at BRef from 2020 to 2023 but was at 18.7 runs allowed based WAR at FanGraphs. 2019-23 Woodruff was 15.9 bWAR | 18.2 rWAR, 2021-25 Peralta was 14.7 bWAR | 18.7 rWAR. The version of WAR that best captures Misio's strikeout dominance would be the default FIP based WAR at FanGraphs which just takes into account Ks, BBs, HRs, and Infield Fly Balls. In addition to his league best K rate, Jacob also has a 16.7 IFFB% that is 2nd in the NL behind only Chase Burns at a whopping 20%. By that measure Misio (44 IP of 64 FIP- for 1.4 fWAR) is tied for 3rd/4th in the NL with Shota Imanga (47 IP of 70 FIP- for 1.4 fWAR) behind Christopher Sanchez (48 IP of 57 FIP- for 1.6 fWAR) and Nolan McLean (45 IP of 59 FIP- for 1.5 fWAR).

Ultimately it boils down to five guys on the active roster and seven guys on the season who have been negatives at the plate so far (all numbers before tonight's game)... Rengifo (116 PA) 47 wRC+ | -7.1 runs Ortiz (90 PA) 36 wRC+ | -6.7 runs Perkins (53 PA) 15 wRC+ | -5.3 runs Jones (22 PA) -56 wRC+ | -4.0 runs Hamilton (107 PA) 77 wRC+ | -2.8 runs Frelick (133 PA) 82 wRC+ | -2.8 runs Matos (21 PA) 25 wRC+ | -1.9 runs Before tonight those seven players had combined for 542 of the 1,402 total team PA (38.7%) so more like a turd or two fits than fiddy percent.

Guardians have traded for Patrick Bailey from San Francisco in exchange for the 29th pick in this year's draft plus pitching prospect Matt "Tugboat" Wilkinson (45 FV on FanGraphs with a 1.59 ERA / 2.60 FIP over 28 IP at AA to start the season). Considering Cleveland has let Austin Hedges stick around for 1,042 PA of 44 wRC+ with +58.5 DEF their interest in Bailey and his 1,253 PA of 76 wRC+ with +97.1 DEF from 2023 to 2025 should come as no surprise. Thing is that Bailey is off to a horrendous start with 89 PA of 146/213/183 (16 wRC+) that would make Joey Ortiz blush. His xwOBA of .283 so far this year is actually up a bit from last year's .264 mark, but still a considerable step down from the .317 xwOBA he posted over his first two seasons. Will be interesting to see how much his bat bounces back as the season plays out.

With 17.65 K9 | 1.56 BB9 | 0.00 HR9 he is currently sporting a -0.27 FIP.

There were 166 starting pitchers with at least 60 IP last year, Misio's 73.8 Contact% was an impressive 27th on the list. So far this year there are 143 starting pitchers with at least 20 IP, Misio's 64.4 Contact% is thee lowest on the leaderboard almost a full two percent ahead of Dylan Cease at 66.3%.

Looking through the options I'd imagine there are around 15 guys that will be on just about everybody's ballot, but competition for those last five or so spots should be intense. @Brock Beauchamp if you could please also add Robert Gasser to the voting options. Thanks!

Looks like Zerpa came in at $1.095M for his first Arby season. After getting hurt he won't see much of an increase so probably closer to $1.5M for year two. Since he will be out for most of next year too (and who knows how much of the season will maybe be lost to labor strife anyway) he also will be unlikely to see a big increase for his third Arby's trip either. My guess is the Brewers liked him enough to trade for him so they will keep him around as a low salary flier to see if they can't eventually accomplish what they set out to.

From 2023 to 2025 Leonard had 947 PA in AAA with the following numbers... 257/323/458 (104 wRC+) 7.4 BB% | 21.8 K% .200 ISO | .292 BABIP So far over 125 PA this year he is at... 343/419/602 (166 wRC+) 8.8 BB% | 18.4 K% .259 ISO | .388 BABIP Obviously the BABIP is unsustainably high, but a nice improvement in plate discipline stats with his BB/K ratio increasing from 0.34 to 0.48. Looks like the big drivers for his strong start are an increased line drive rate (23.3% up to 31.7%) which likely ties into the elevated BABIP and an uptick in his HR to fly ball ratio (16.5% to 21.4%) that explains some of the ISO gains. All of that stuff outside of the plate discipline stats is pretty prone to wild fluctuation over small samples, and looking at the limited StatCast info available on his FanGraphs page it doesn't look like he's seen any meaningful improvement in his contact quality. I don't doubt that Eddys has seen some improvement in his true talent level, but also am pretty sure it's not as big a jump as the numbers imply. All that said, I'd be more than fine with giving him a shot and seeing what he's got since we already know what Perkins is all about. Then again the out of options part complicates things with Yelich looking pretty close to returning. Guess once Christian is back they could option Black back down and keep Eddys as the 13th man then?

From yesterday's minor league game thread it looks like Pena recently posted some pictures of himself in TRats uniform to Instagram (but no accompanying text) perhaps hinting at an imminent return.

PCA has a 97 wRC+ currently and a 98 wRC+ for his career, Dansby is at a 102 wRC+ currently and a 101 wRC+ from 2023 to 2025...there might be a little upside there but Bregman (98 wRC+ vs 122 wRC+ last three years) and Busch (104 wRC+ currently vs 129 wRC+ last two years) are the only real under-performers to this point for the Cubs. Meanwhile they've got Hoerner (129 wRC+ so far vs 106 wRC+ last five years), Happ (149 wRC+ so far vs 117 wRC+ last five years), Suzuki (160 wRC+ so far vs 127 wRC+ last four years), Carson Kelly (140 wRC+ so far vs 115 wRC+ career high last year), and Michael Conforto (160 wRC+ vs 99 wRC+ last five years) who are over-performing their established baselines to pretty large extents. Guys like Ballesteros (153 wRC+) and Shaw (120 wRC+) don't really have established track records but are probably both above their true talent level at the moment as well.

Think Gasser should be an option at some point. Looks like he had some health issues at the start of the season though with his first three appearances spaced out quite a bit on 0327, 0410, and 0425 before getting on a more regular schedule recently with starts on 0430 and today. As far as other lefties go Rob Zastryzny should be back maybe in June or so? Deep cut non-40 Man options at some point later this year could be Tate Kuehner (if they want ground balls / length) or Drew Rom (if they want strikeouts) but neither are really big time strike throwers with walk rates of 10.4% and 10.6% so far this year in AAA, though the league average walk rate in the International League is 11.9% (compared to 9.5% in MLB) so they've at least been better than their current peers in that regard.