Brian Roberts Signs 4/$40M extention with Baltimore

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3921371

 

$10 million a year for age 33,34,35,36 at 2nd base (he was born in 1977 and the deal runs through 2013). What are the Os thinking? He went from very marketable to a white elephant overnight

[Fatter than Joey]

He's worth $10M for sure right now... the 4th year may not be the best value -- but I think calling this signing of Roberts a white elephant is a bit much.

[gobrew23]

I'm surprised the deal is for that much. Before this offseason I would have thought it was good, but the way the market is right now it seems like quite a bit to lock up a player who is 32 years old.

[cwolf2012]

For what it's worth, Fangraphs has his value at $20.4 mil last year, and $18.1 mil in 2007.

 

I can't see that sustaining though. I think the odds that he is worth 40 over the next 4 years are pretty good.

[Mr Southpaw]

Can you say Suppan.

[Matt Breen]

Roberts is one of the top 5-6 2B in the league - average, obp, steals And a switch hitter. I can't say much about his fielding, as i don't see him often. four years is probably much, but he should be good for a couple of years.

 

He's certainly not a Suppan - Suppan was always nothing more than an average (at best) pitcher. Roberts has played at an above average level for three of the last four years.

 

Again, those end years are probably no bargain, but they have an all-star caliber player and are keeping him. bully to them.

[apirk]

I'd bet Orioles fans are excited about the signing. They at least have a small core of talent that is locked up for a few years.

[craigharmann]

Guess we don't have to worry about him getting traded to the Cubs.

[TooLiveBrew]

Can you say Suppan.

 

That's not even close to being fair to Roberts. Suppan was average when we signed him... Roberts has been very good. Like others have mentioned, he may not be worth $10M in the 4th year of the deal. However, aside from the fact that we don't know how the contract is structured, he'll probably be worth the deal on the whole.

[logan82]

Fangraphs estimated that Roberts should get $46M over a 4 year deal. Looks kind of like they got a discount, but that isn't considering the current market.

[fallingleaves]

I like this deal for the Os, topping off a strong off season for the club.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Per the article, the deal is $10 in 2010, $10 in 2011, $10 in 2012, $10 in 2013.
I still think given this market that this is way overpaying.

[Invader3K]

This is one of those signings the Orioles almost had to do to prove they're not just going to be a farm system for the big market teams. He's a good player, and a core member of the team.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Would this compare to us giving Weeks 4/40 in 2 years? Weeks has shown great flashes in OBP and as a leadoff hitter... I guess my problem is that i can't think of any 2B that i would pay $10/m year

 

I'd prefer to save my $$ for elite 3B, SS, P, C, and CF (or def Braun in his case)

[endaround]

The fact that Chase Utley didn't come right to mind tells us how badly he is underrated.

[cwolf2012]

Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, and Dan Uggla come to mind as well.

[Ennder]

I don't agree on Uggla but Kinsler and Utley for sure are worth $10M and Pedrioa most likely is too (have to see him do it again to be sure).

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I concur that Utley is worth it. He is a once in a decade player at his position however...

[TooLiveBrew]

I still think given this market that this is way overpaying.

 

Per cwolf's post #3, Fangraphs had him estimated at roughly half the value of this deal in 2008. It's reasonable to think he'll be close to that value in '09, and then it won't take much more than average play to earn the rest of the value of the contract.

[kramnoj]

It's reasonable to think he'll be close to that value in '09, and then it won't take much more than average play to earn the rest of the value of the contract.

 

This deal kicks in for 2010 season. This is clearly a PR move, not really a good baseball move. Roberts was already locked in for this year, so there was no need to extend him now. The market doesn't really pay 2B that well, there was little chance that Roberts would have got anything close to this offer if he were a FA. Fangraphs value is based on the FA market of past years, and doesn't reflect the smaller salaries that many players are getting this year.

 

It's an overpay, in years and in dollars. It's not a terrible move, but it's not a good contract given the current market. The Orioles are in a tough spot. It would be an accomplishment for them to finish 3rd in their division, let alone compete for the playoffs. So if they are years away from being competitive, they may as well retain a guy that their fans like. If a team was willing to stock the Orioles farm system by trading for Roberts, that would be their best move, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

[Fatter than Joey]

The market doesn't really pay 2B that well

 

There aren't many 2bs that are as all around good as Roberts. If Cameron is a good deal at $10M, so is Roberts.

 

there was little chance that Roberts would have got anything close to this offer if he were a FA. Fangraphs value is based on the FA market of past years, and doesn't reflect the smaller salaries that many players are getting this year.

 

I disagree -- I think that a lot of the "low salary talk" is being overstated -- First, Orlando Hudson will get $8M if he stays healthy, so it is not as if money won't be spent. If Hudson did not have the wrist issue, he'd have been signed a lot sooner, and he would be getting $8M in base salary. Good players are still being paid well. Second, the salaries are going to fluctuate, in 4 years $10M may be a bargain -- it's really hard to say. I think the guys who aren't getting paid, are the crappier type A guys that teams do not want to give up a pick for. If Roberts was a FA teams would not have been as concerned about giving a pick for him as they are for a Juan Cruz type of player.

 

If a team was willing to stock the Orioles farm system by trading for Roberts, that would be their best move, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

 

I absolutely think that Roberts is still very tradeable -- if he keeps doing what he does, a $10M contract is not going to scare away playoff teams that need a 2b.

 

The bottom line, I would have loved to have the Brewers sign Roberts to a 4yr $10Mper deal

[Ennder]

I'd be worried about the 3rd and 4th year since speedy MI don't generally age well but yeah I'd have given him that contract most likely.

[kramnoj]

There aren't many 2bs that are as all around good as Roberts.

 

That's true, but he has been signed to a deal that will take him to a point where 2B tend to collapse. 2B careers generally don't last as long as others, which is why they don't tend to get offers like this.

 

I disagree -- I think that a lot of the "low salary talk" is being overstated

 

The most sought after FA are getting the big dollars, but lots of other players are getting less than they would in previous years. Looking at the mediocre pitcher market, they were getting 3-5 year deals at $10M each over the last few years. Now they are getting one year guarantees for $5-$8M. Roberts isn't mediocre, but I don't know that I would put him at the elite level (and if he is, I certainly don't think he'll be elite for this contract).

 

Second, the salaries are going to fluctuate, in 4 years $10M may be a bargain -- it's really hard to say.

 

"May" is the big word here. The Orioles didn't need to sign him now, and they signed him to a 4 year deal that will take him to his age 35 season. They had to give him 4 years, because Roberts agent knew that the Orioles wanted him that badly and were willing to concede that.

 

I absolutely think that Roberts is still very tradeable

 

You write that like I don't think he's very tradeable. I don't doubt that the Brewers would trade for Roberts if they felt they needed to do so for the playoffs in 2009 and if they felt it was good value. The question is what is a good value. Roberts seemed to be on the trade market for all of last season, and the Orioles didn't find a match that was worth it. What would you give up for Roberts? It didn't seem like the Brewers were willing to give up what the Orioles wanted, nor were the Cubs.

 

The bottom line, I would have loved to have the Brewers sign Roberts to a 4yr $10Mper deal

 

That may be your bottom line, but it's not the one the Orioles faced. They had the option of offering arbitration to Roberts after this year. A couple of things could have happened. They could have got him for one more year at about this price without having to lock him up. Or he could start to decline and they would have dodged a bullet. Or Roberts could have declined arby, evaluated his market, and the Orioles could have signed Roberts to a deal that was more representative of that market. Or Roberts leaves because he wasn't treated well, and the Orioles finish in 5th place again (with picks when Roberts signs with another team). Paying a 35 year old declining 2B $10M/year seems like a worse result than any of the others.

 

From a business side, this may have been the best decision. It seems like Roberts is that popular and the Orioles have certainly lost their luster. But I don't think it was the best baseball decision.

[logan82]

Per Fangraphs

If he declines by a half-win each season, and the average annual dollars/win stayed $4.5 mil, with a 10% discount for the contractual guarantee, the four-year deal would be valued at $46 mil.

Link

[Fatter than Joey]

From a business side, this may have been the best decision. It seems like Roberts is that popular and the Orioles have certainly lost their luster. But I don't think it was the best baseball decision.

 

Baseball is a business. The best baseball decisions are the best business decisions.