Dave Bush's fastball velocity: mechanics, or injury after-effects?

[TooLiveBrew]

One thing I've noticed this season is that Dave Bush, while never accused of being a flamethrower, has slipped down into Davis/Suppan territory in terms of fastball velocity. Here are his average fastball velocities (per FanGraphs) since joining the Brewers --

2006: 89.2

2007: 88.7

2008: 88.7

2009: 87.9

2010: 86.1 (this was prior to tonight's game, but he looked right around this number if not a bit lower)

A drop in overall velocity in '09 makes sense, since he pitched after getting drilled in the elbow (& injured) with a line drive. But with much of last season to recover, followed by an entire offseason & full Spring Training, what are we to make of his even slower velocity this year so far? Could it just be something mechanical? Is he still building strength back coming off the injury? He's only in his age-30 season, so I can't believe it's an effect of aging.

[Ennder]

Most pitchers have lower velocity early in the season so I'd assume it is just normal.

[dlk9s]

He's looked fine to me this year. Aside from walking more guys than he usually does, his pitches have looked pretty good to me. I believe last night his fastball was hitting 89-90 at times.

[Teatoe993]

I swear I saw saw him hit 92 last night. He's been doing OK for a #4 guy. He went 5 last night with 1 ER. He'd have gone another inning or more if Prince hadn't dropped that ball with 2 outs.

[trwi7]

I believe last night his fastball was hitting 89-90 at times.

Gameday had him at 84-87 all game. Nothing higher than 87.

 

[dlk9s]

Thought I saw it higher on the telecast, but I'm on east coast, so it was later for me and my eyes may not have been communicating with my brain properly.

[jerichoholicninja]

I wouldn't be too worried about fastball velocity being down. Small sample size, early in the season too. His fastball has movement and his curveball's been pretty good so far.

[rluzinski]

On average, pitchers lose something like 1/2 MPH per year (I don't recall the exact number). I would chalk up the 2 MPH difference to it being early but it's certainly worth keeping an eye at. I would think that you have to be a pretty special pitcher to have success with a 86 MPH fastball and Bush isn't.

[FVBrewerFan]

Could be he's just learning how to command his fastball. Maybe he's learned he gets better cut throwing it at 86-87 rather than 88-89?

[TooLiveBrew]

I believe last night his fastball was hitting 89-90 at times.

Gameday had him at 84-87 all game. Nothing higher than 87.

Yeah, that's what I kept seeing, and why I was/am concerned. And it's not just this past start.

[TooLiveBrew]

I just think the league had adjusted to him in 2007 and he isn't the same guy since the injury.

This is from your latest post in the Rangers-Brewers pitching thread. I know not much more time has elapsed, but I'm still very concerned about Dave Bush. His average FB velocity has actually dropped since I started this topic, and as of today sits at 85.9mph. Both his cutter & slider are also significantly slower than they have ever been.

 

If it's related to mechanics, I guess that's better, since it's correctable. However, if it's something due to and/or left over from the injury, is that cause for alarm? Could that mean Bush is still not recovered, or even worse, that the injury has permanently affected his ability? I'll be hoping for the best for Dave, but at this point, I'm not sure what to make of things.

[JohnBriggs12]

Bush is leading the NL in HR allowed (8). He's on pace to give up around 40. This is nothing new. His problem is he doesn't get enough movement on it and when he misses in the middle of the zone, it gets crushed whether it's 85 or 90. I never feel comfortable with a 1 or 2 run lead with Bush pitching even when he's put up zeroes. He can give up the long ball at any moment.

 

He's a FA after this year. He'd be one of the first I'd look to deal if they are out of it at the deadline.

[joepepsi]

4 of Bush's 8 homers came in that one, horrible start. So it's a bit of stretch to conclude he's gonna hit 40. That's like saying Pujols was on a pace to hit 324 homers after Opening Day. That said, his BB rate is up and K rate down. So I too have some worries, but so far his results have been fine.

[PlayerHader]

I don't think anyone concluded anything. It is a fact that he is on pace to give up 40 dingers this year. We're roughly a 1/4 of the way into the season now, so projections such as that aren't so ridiculous.

 

Also, it is a FACT that Pujols was on pace to hit 324 HR after opening day. There is nothing ridiculous about that statement.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think joepepsi's point is that it isn't very useful, whether it's factual or not. Dave Bush has never even allowed 30 HR in a season, so I actually do think it's pretty ridiculous to suggest that 40 is an accurate projection. Besides, that's using a 200 IP season from Bush, which he hasn't turned in since 2006.

[rluzinski]

Right, the problem isn't stating "on pace" numbers. It's an easy way to give early season numbers scale. The problem is when "on pace" numbers early in the season are used as a kind of projection. I would hope that knowledable basebal fans know better. Bush won't finish 40 HRs, Braun won't bat .365 for the year and the Brewers won't finish 19-62 at home.

[PlayerHader]

Totally agree. And once again, JohnBriggs didn't say anything about projections. He made factual statements about the pace Dave Bush is on after 1/4 of the season. No one said he was going to give up 40 dingers. But you can't argue with the fact that he is currently on pace to do so (or nearly so) if he continues to pitch as he has so far.

 

I guess my post was just clarifying that joepepsi was spinning JB's words into something he didn't say or even imply.

[joepepsi]

Fair enough. But saying he's on pace to give 40 homers and ignoring the fact half the dingers he's given up came in one game, is misleading at best. It may be every 4th game Bush gives up 4 homers, but with only 7 starts so far in the season it's hard to reach any conclusion. As I said above though, it is valid to be concerned about his K:BB ratio, since that has been mediocre is pretty much every outing.

[Ennder]

His average fastball is now down to 85.8 MPH. His K/9 has fallen below 5 which makes it hard to be successful unless you are an extreme groundball guy. His BB/9 is at a career high and while people will say it was '1 bad start' it was actually a correction that was due on his ERA all year long. His xFIP and ERA almost match up exactly now, he has pitched like a 5+ ERA guy all season long and was just lucky until this point. Since the injury he has made Suppan look good and I can't see him making it to the all star break in the rotation unless something changes. I'm a Dave Bush fan but they need to start exploring different options soon because he just hasn't been the same since the injury last year.

[markedman5]

I'm hoping they DFI Suppan, move Bush to long relief, and give Estrada a chance in Bush's spot.

 

At this point I would just like to see them try somebody else.

[logan82]

What is DFI? Designate for injury?

[craigharmann]

Does Bush have any options left? I wonder if he would be willing to be sent down to AAA to work out whatever issue he currently has.

[GormanHarvey]

Does Bush have any options left? I wonder if he would be willing to be sent down to AAA to work out whatever issue he currently has.

He's been in the league long enough that he would have to approve being sent down. Doubt he would

[craigharmann]

That's what I thought. Might be the best for him to figure out what the issue is.....or if there is any way to fix it. Not really sure how to fix a drop in velocity other than rest.

[GormanHarvey]

You have to wonder if it still has to do with that liner Hanley smoked him with last year. Something is not right