Braun's patience

[jjfanec]

I am really impressed with Braun's improved patience at the plate so far. I know it is a small sample but he currently has more walks (10) than strike outs (9). He has improved this each year but even last year it was almost two to one. Considering he is batting in front of Fielder and pitchers would not seem to want to put him on at all, that is impressive.

[danzig6767]

I think it's pretty clear that Braun will never become a 100 plus walk guy like Prince is, Ryan likes to swing the bat to much and he has success sometimes on pitches out of the zone because of his above average plate coverage. I could though eventually see him becoming a guy who walks about 70-75 times a year. Given the high average he hits for all the time, that would likely translate into an OBP of around .370-.400, depending how high above .300 he hit.

[logan82]

Braun's ISO has gone down every year as well. I am not sure his improved plate dicipline is necessarily a good thing.

[endaround]

Braun's ISO has gone down every year as well. I am not sure his improved plate dicipline is necessarily a good thing.

His BB% hasn't moved really until this year though (SSS alert). Going from 6-8BB% isn't that big of a thing.

[carniesandrubes]

Seems like he always starts each season being more patient, but after a couple months, he's back to the way he always played. Check his walks for each month over the last few years.

[jjfanec]

I started this thread and I knew some people would be quick to dismiss it as small sample size. Carnie brought a valid point with past starts by Braun but I feel like his approach just looks different. Maybe that will change but right now he has walked 15 times which is more than he had any month in his career. So in 18 games he has shown better pitch selection than any point in his career so maybe a change is occurring.

 

His power numbers have been great along with his patience.

[DHonks]

It could also be that Braun is finally adapting to pitching styles. His first year he wowed the league. Pitchers kept challenging him. He may never repeat that rookie year, but he may be evolving as a hitter

[danzig6767]

Well, Braun had walked 57/56 times in the last two years and i said that i could see him upping that to around 70-75 times, but i couldn't envision him being the type to walk 100 plus times as the elite patient hitters do. I could be a bit low in those projections. We'll see.

 

I do agree with you that his approach this year does seem more real and not just an early in the season deal which will fade away significantly as the season goes along. Maybe playing with Prince who is elite at taking walks has finally rubbed off on Braun? Maybe his good, but not great season last year made Ryan decide that he had to force pitchers to throw him more strikes by getting ahead in the count more often? Maybe it's simply a guy maturing as a hitter? Or maybe it's a combination of the three?

 

Braun had such incredible production from the minute he stepped on to major league diamonds, he could put up big numbers without doing stuff like working the count and getting himself in favorable ball/strike situations more often than not. Like Vlad somewhat, Ryan with his great plate coverage was often able to swing at stuff off the plate and still get big hits. Last year though, Ryan struggled a bit, at least for the kind of standards he sets for himself. So i wonder if that made him do some reevaluation of his approach at the plate and deciding that with more patience, he can get back to the .900 plus OPS/30 plus homers guy he expects of himself.

[berniebrewer4life]

Yea, 100 walk hitters are very rare(10 in the last two years), but if he can start getting 75 walks a year, that will solidly put him in the top 25 most years. That's excellent considering where he started his career.

[davemakovec]

Some hitters (usually good ones) pick their walk rate up a little bit as they mature. Braun's only around 28, so he's just getting into his prime. He won't take 100 walks, but 70 would be a huge difference, especially because if pitchers can't get him to strike out on junk off the plate as much, that will boost his power numbers (less junk off the plate, more favorable counts => more good pitches to hit).

[JohnBriggs12]

It's not the walk rate that's important, it's that he's chasing less pitches out of the zone. If he continues to do that, he will put up monster numbers and be a prime MVP candidate, whether his walk total is 50, 75 or 100.

[rluzinski]

Any Brewer fan has to be thrilled about Braun's start but I wouldn't assume any change in approach based on only the results of 80 PA. I agree that by virtue of being a year older, we would hope Braun improves his plate discipline, however.

[Dollarbill13]

It's not the walk rate that's important, it's that he's chasing less pitches out of the zone. If he continues to do that, he will put up monster numbers and be a prime MVP candidate, whether his walk total is 50, 75 or 100.

He's chasing the same number of pitches outside the strike zone, he's just making more contact on the ones he chases and fouls many them off to extend the at bat.

[Invader3K]

I think he's going to have a monster year, regardless of where his walk totals fall.

[endaround]

It's not the walk rate that's important, it's that he's chasing less pitches out of the zone. If he continues to do that, he will put up monster numbers and be a prime MVP candidate, whether his walk total is 50, 75 or 100.

He's chasing the same number of pitches outside the strike zone, he's just making more contact on the ones he chases and fouls many them off to extend the at bat.

Yep. His O-swing is 30.3% vs 31.3% for his career. His O-contact% is 74.5% vs 61.9% for his career. He's swinging less overall because he's swinging less at in the zone pitches.

[bork]

The key for Braun is to stay healthy (knock on wood). He had a monster start last year before getting hurt.

[Warning Track Power]

I think he's going to have a monster year, regardless of where his walk totals fall.

Agreed and not just because I am a Brewer fan. I really believe he's going to be MVP this season with a .320, 35 HR, 115 RBI kind of year.

 

 

[dlk9s]

Yep. His O-swing is 30.3% vs 31.3% for his career. His O-contact% is 74.5% vs 61.9% for his career. He's swinging less overall because he's swinging less at in the zone pitches.

It would be interesting to see how far out of the zone the pitches are. He doesn't seem to be flailing at pitches that are way outside or way high as he has in the past. I wouldn't be at all surprised if balls outside the zone that he offers at are just barely off the plate or close enough to swing at when protecting with 2 strikes.

[jjfanec]

Yep. His O-swing is 30.3% vs 31.3% for his career. His O-contact% is 74.5% vs 61.9% for his career. He's swinging less overall because he's swinging less at in the zone pitches.

It would be interesting to see how far out of the zone the pitches are. He doesn't seem to be flailing at pitches that are way outside or way high as he has in the past. I wouldn't be at all surprised if balls outside the zone that he offers at are just barely off the plate or close enough to swing at when protecting with 2 strikes.

That is my question too. There is a difference between swinging at pitches out of the zone like Jenkins did toward the end of his career and protecting the plate. I want a guy who protects the plate and with his power Braun can put some of those just off the plate pitches in play. I dont want him watching a pitch that an ump could call strike three

[areacodes]

Seems like he always starts each season being more patient, but after a couple months, he's back to the way he always played. Check his walks for each month over the last few years.

But that is not really true. Over the past 3 years his walks by month:

 

2008 Season

4 - Mar/Apr - 26 games

6 - May - 29 games

6 - June - 26 games

8 - July - 25 games

6 - August - 19 games

12 - Sept/Oct - 26 games

 

2009 Season

14 - Mar/Apr - 22 games

12 - May - 26 games

9 - June - 27 games

5 - July - 25 games

7 - August - 27 games

10 - Sept/Oct - 31 games

 

2010 Season

12

 

- Mar/Apr - 23 games

9 - May - 26 games

6 - June - 27 games

5 - July - 27 games

14 - August - 26 games

10 - Sept/Oct - 28 games

 

No real pattern, but his higher walk totals have generally been in the beginning and end of the year.

[The Truth]

With 15 walks already this season, Braun's OBP & OPS are way up. He only walked 56 times all year last season and 57 is his career high

[jjfanec]

Thought I would bump this since the sample size is higher now. Braun had a span of 15 games where he only walked once, but has really come around again with his plate discipline walking 13 times in 18 games. He has only homered twice this month so I am not sure if there is a correlation to his increased walking and decrease in power. He is still on pace for nearly 40 home runs and has added base stealing again. He is 12 for 13 in stolen bases.

[BrewCrewForever]

He has a shot at 100 walks this season or darn close. I could see 30/30 from him this year to. Love Braun.

[theavrock]

I would be ecstatic if he can walk 100 times this year while keeping his power numbers up. His approach has looked great lately. Braun has a .632 OBP and 1.401 OPS in his last 5 games.

[Oxy]

He has a shot at 100 walks this season or darn close. I could see 30/30 from him this year to. Love Braun.

A 30/30 season with 100 walks would be a rare feat indeed. In fact, only three guys in history have ever done it, but they each did it multiple times for a grand total of eight 30/30 100 walk seasons in MLB history. Does anybody have any guesses who the three might be? One guy is a gimme.