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scooter gennett and Victor Roache.


rarjake

Didn't want to make two different topics so i just put them both here.

 

Victor roache making his debut a couple days ago really dominated. Just in low class a ball now, but he might be an offenisve star of the future, aoki won't be here forever. Will nice to see how he devlops.

 

But the better question for right now is, when Scooter will be called up. To me their is no IF at this point. Weeks has been struggling, badly. I know he makes 10 mil this year and 11 mil next year, at some point you got to take a guy batting under .200 out of the line up. When is the question. Do they wait in till late may so they can avoid a year with scooter? I don't think they will be that desprite with him considering he is not a top prospect. So what are they waiting for?

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If they do it in May I will be surprised big time. I suspect it will be sometime in late June/July if this continues. Just look at how long it took them to take action on Hall/Hardy as proof.
Robin Yount - “But what I'd really like to tell you is I never dreamed of being in the Hall of Fame. Standing here with all these great players was beyond any of my dreams.”
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It's hard to know what to make of Gennett. I've always thought he'd play in the big leagues, and I've thought he'd probably be a starting second basemen for a few seasons, and then play as a bench guy for a while. I still think that.

 

I haven't seen him play in person, so I'm going by stats, and scouting reports. My take on him is that he's an average defender, and an average runner in terms of speed; he's also a guy who piles up hits, has very little power, and doesn't walk much.

 

My question to all of you is, does he walk very little because he's not patient enough at the plate, or is it because pitchers pound the strike zone against him because they know a mistake is probably a single?

 

I would assume, with his ability to make contact, he's not up there flailing away, so I'm guessing he sees a lot of strikes, and puts his bat on the ball. Is that right, or should he be walking more?

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BABIP would be a good stat to go by. I am not sure if any site keeps track of that, obviously also the slugging percentage would be a good stat to see how many of his hits are singles , or 2b or 3b.

maybe baseball ref has bbip . basically its an average of balls that are in play. home-runs don't count, strike outs dont count, walks dont count.

so if you get a hr walk k ground out hit your total will be 1(ground out) + (hit) so 1/2

sorry if you already know this. would be nice if someone kept track of sabermetric stats for minor leaguers.

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Would love to be proven wrong but I don't see anything more than a bench guy in Scooter. His 293/330/385 line in Huntsville would seem to be his everything breaks right/best case scenario MLB line and I'd expect closer to 260/290/350, especially out of the gun. Put that together with below average defense with no positional versatility and marginal speed and you hope the whole is better than the sum of its parts.
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his isloated power is obviously low

again, braun is a class act of the mlb. here is a good comparison of the best

brauns isolated power .276 (2012)

gennets isloated power .065 (2013)

isloated power is slugging - average

 

Speed they have is a good indicated to good a picture of gennets speed

Braun speed number is 5.7 in 2012

gennets speed number is 6.2 in 2013

 

just some numbers to bat around.

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I know I am dreaming would so cool if fan graphs had all the stats they did on regular mlb players for triple A teams. Like the plate displine stats, or what pitches a hitter gets. Just so much useful info. I know someone within the org, is probably tracking that but damn would be nice if fangraphs could do it :(
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http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa501939&position=2B

 

His BABIP this year is .470 which is hella good.

 

I believe MLB avg is around .300

brauns last year was .350

 

It's hella lucky. It doesn't make him a good hitter.

 

The BABIP stat is a lot more than luck. Better hitters make better contact, and use the entire field and that leads to higher BABIP. I assume Gennett uses the entire field too. Now certainly .470 has a fairly large element of luck to it and it can't be sustained, but that doesn't mean Gennett is not a good hitter. He raked in the AFL a couple years ago, and I think last season was sort of an off year for him. His power is a bit underrated too. A .418 slugging percentage (his career number) for the position is pretty decent and a lot better than a guy like a Chris Getz or a Darwin Barney. Offensively, I think he projects to be similar to a Skip Schumaker. Schumaker never hit with enough pop to start in the outfield where he primarily played in the minors but he learned to play 2B well enough to get his bat in the lineup.

 

Bottom line is I don't think Gennett will ever be a "core player", in the majors, but I think he'd be a guy who could start on a good team in the right circumstances.

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I think BABIP needs to be taken in context with other stats like line drive percentage. If Gennett is hitting a bunch of grounders eventually those will be fielded for outs.
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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Consensus seems to be Gennett will be a bench player, but that doesn't make sense to me. All he can play is 2B, so he really doesn't project as a utility IF. Plus he's a very avg defensive 2B, avg speed, very little power. Bottom line, he's a one tool player. But if you're going to have a tool, it may as well be hitting. That alone could give him a shot at starting at some point. It's going to take timing, right place/ right time type of thing. He may never get the chance, because i don't see the Brewers or any team going out of their way to clear a spot at 2B for him to start and play there every day.
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Unless Weeks gets hurt, or the Brewers find a way to trade him, he will be the second baseman at least until sometime next season. He has talent, and they owe him too much to give up on him with 1.5 years left on his contract.

 

It would be nice Weeks could play well enough for the remainder of the year that he makes himself tradeable this offseason, allowing Gennett to man 2B starting next year. Gennett won't be a star, but he should be good enough to merit playing time while he's young & cheap, and knocking Weeks' salary off the 2014 books would be very helpful.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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I can't see Scooter being a viable starter in the Majors. He will certainly be above replacement level but not good enough to be THE GUY at any position. Right now I'd rather take Weeks and his current slump with the potential for him to be the old Weeks than Scooter at his best.
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Scooter on 'range factor', if you can compare MLB to the minors, is a bit better than Weeks. A 4.8ish for Gennett to 4.5ish guy (Weeks is actually around 4.1 now - but was 4.5 - I am not sure if the ankle caused the last two year drop).

 

It does look like Scooter dovetales well... with two options years left (this and next), then I guess Weeks will be gone after next year. So you end up with a league minimum, average, left hand 2nd baseman. It would not be bad. It would be great if Scooter had a really good year - to prove he is growing. You cant have all $10 mill players on the roster.

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If you're talking about the stat RF, SoupTown, that's really a poor way to evaluate a fielder. RF rewards players that have groundball pitching staffs & punishes players whose pitchers strike out more batters. It tells you how many plays a defender made, not how good he is.
Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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For a guy who is only 5'10" (listed) Gennett's walk rate is abysmal - worse than Gomez and almost as bad as Yuni. It's not like he's 6'6" and has a huge strike zone like Corey Hart. Maybe the lack of power makes pitchers less careful when pitching to him and thus they throw him more strikes than other players, but for having a relatively small strike zone compared to taller players his walk rate should be higher. Especially in the minor leagues when facing pitchers that have less control than major league pitchers. He's a guy I'd have no problems trading if another team is high on him and willing to give up decent value.
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Gennett's hit tool is without a doubt good & his best tool, but compare his MiLB career so far to Weeks's:

 

- Scooter: .304/.342/.416/.758

- Rickie: .289/.404/.493/.897

 

In almost twice the MiLB PAs, Gennett has tallied 23 HRs to Weeks's 21. Without power, almost every hitter struggles to make an impactful jump to the bigs. I would be more on Gennett's bandwagon if his defense was another plus skill, or if he were versatile enough to also cover SS & 3B. A low- to mid-.700s OPS 2B with average to below-avg. defense just doesn't have much value.

 

As for Roache, he unquestionably has the power to play corner OF in the Show, but it'll be how he develops his hit tool that determines his future.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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His BABIP this year is .470 which is hella good.

 

Dear God, I haven't heard "hella" since I graduated college in 2003. You just gave me horrible flashbacks to stupid California girls managing to fit that pseudo-word into a sentence 3 or more times. I was grateful that by 2003 that expression was dying out in California. Still, I blame CA and WA for ever making that expression popular. If I'm ever hella good at something, please shoot me.

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At what point are we going to keep on questioning Gennett's ability to hit the ball and become an everyday big leaguer?

 

He just keeps on hitting at every single level, and every year I hear(read) how his skills won't translate to the next level.

 

And as a guy who's been Weeks biggest fan, how many years can we afford to have a complete blackhole in the lineup for the first several months of the season...2-3-4 months how many times? I love everything about the guy his talent, toughness, power from 2nd base, worth ethic, leadership....but it's not longer a fluke that he's going to be god awful the first few months of the season.

 

The guy can hit the ball, hit for a good average and is an ideal #8 hitter in the future, and Weeks half years of excellence and half year of absolute abysmal play(defensively this year as well as offensively).

 

I love Weeks, and I really hope he can get hot, have great half a season or 4 months, whatever it may be, but I don't trust him up in a big spot anymore, I don't believe he's ever going to be the player his talent suggests and I think we need to stop searching for reasons why a minor leaguer who's moved up and performed at every single level won't be a good, above average starting 2nd basemen. He's a guy I think will be a lot closer to a .280/.340/.420 type guy with good D who hits 30 doubles and 8-10 HR's. Saves the money to spend elsewhere or better yet...NOT SPEND IT!! I know it's totally different, and I was pleasantly surprised the Brewers didn't overspend this year just for the sake of spending, but I'd like to see them build up a Packers like fund for when the opportunity arises.

 

Bottom line, people have doubted Gennett at every single level, and we keep using Weeks season ending totals to justify his terrible, atrocious first 2-3 months of sub .200 hitting every year(seemingly).

 

 

Sometimes players play above their measurables and I don't with there was minor league sabermetrics as the game is totally different. It's already analyzed to death. Gennett can hit the ball and he has a little power and should add more. Leave it at that without trying to break down why he's not really as good as his consistently good numbers suggest.

Icbj86c-"I'm not that enamored with Aaron Donald either."
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what have the brewers got to lose at this point? what if we call up gennett and he plays well? that would be another impact bat added to the lineup. power numbers aren't everything. you can never have enough guys that get on base consistently. weeks is a good guy and most of us wish he could go back to his old ways. this isn't spring training. every game counts now. the time for experimentation has come and gone. the best possible move for the team is to give the young guy his chance. weeks has had plenty of opportunities to show that he's still got something in him. he hasn't shown anything. what kind of a message does it send to the minor leaguers if we keep trotting weeks out there? the message of we'll keep starting you even if your poor play hurts the team isn't a good one. thats a loser mentality. when a guy isn't getting the job done you give him a chance to fix himself. if he still cant getthe job done after you've given him a second chance, you find a replacement. weeks is now in the position that the previous 2B was in. the old guy wasn't cutting it so the team gave the young weeks a chance. it ended up working out. weeks has declined and the time has come to find a replacement. the team has nothing to lose at this point. starting gennett answers questions.
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vegasbrewcrew, the problem is that Gennett likely is not an impact bat. Nothing says that he is. And you mention getting on base consistently...sorry, but it's unlikely that Gennett carries an OBP higher than Weeks. I suggest if you want OBP, you check out Nick Shaw in AA.
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