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Taylor Jungmann Thread


MrTPlush

The chatter on Jungmann is starting to increase on Jungmann so I think he deserves his own thread. Many are wondering how he is doing it here, but had a sky high ERA in AAA. Calm that excitmemt because he will come back down to earth eventually(not to AAA numbers):

 

1. His walk rate is not very characteristic of him. He has been at 2.35/9 here and for most of his career he has sat at 4.0/9. He has battled in a lot of 3 ball counts over his MLB starts and it wouldn't be surprising to have his walk rate go up some.

 

2. Opposing teams are batting .252 on balls in play...that is not going to stay that low. Those are dominant cy young level numbers and Jungmann should regress to at least his .300 minor league numbers eventually.

 

3. He is only a 2 pitch pitcher right now. Both of his main offerings are pretty average so he is going to have to figure out a 3rd pitch eventually. He has hardly thrown his change up to this point. Long term this is a big cause for concern.

 

People can't forget the fact that Jungmann has never been that impressive throughout his MiLB career. He has the chance to be a solid back end of the rotation pitcher or a mid rotation guy if he harnesses better control and a 3rd pitch. This is no knock on Jungmann, he has done a lot of things to like. I have been quite impressed with him even taking the above into consideration. That doesn't change the fact he is playing over his head and taking advantage of the lack of knowledge on him though.

 

(Feel free to use this thread for anything related to Jungmann)

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Ben sheets was a two pitch pitcher as well. While Jungman may not be Sheets, to say his two main pitches are average is pretty far off the mark. His problem was never his stuff. It was always location. Which is why you can't just go off of his minor league numbers to project what he is going to be in the majors. It should come as no surprise that he is improving his location given his age and time in professional baseball. Nor should the fact that he does better than his minor league numbers indicate he would since he gained some control. I have no idea if he can maintain his control over the course of the season, or his career for that matter, but he has the stuff to be more than a back end of the rotation guy.
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I think you are missing a big part of his game, he does have 3 pitches, because has is using 2 distinct fastballs, the 2 seamer that is diving down and away to lefties and then hes using another fastball, I dont know what it is and i dont claim to, i dont want to call it a four seamer, but its different than his 2 seam and its a little straighter and also sinks but it sink in on lefties.

 

So he has a very effective 3 pitch mix right now because he in controlling both fastballs and commanding both sides of the plate. So far in the games i have watched, except for the start in colorado where both pitches straighten out, they are both plus (cant argue that, thats why there is so much weak contact against him). The fact that his curve is solid average pitch is really setting it off, it doesnt need to be a hammer when he has 2 plus hard pitches, just need to be average and break, keep hitters off balance and that is exactly what he has done.

 

Now, imo the reason hes been so successful is because those fastballs have been plus. They are both moving and hes controlling both of them. If for some reason his control regresses, there will be more pressure for him to spot the curve and flash the change, that might be where we see him come down to earth a bit. But, its also possible that hes just taken a step forward and if thats the case we can get excited because hes a stud! Pair that with Jimmy Nelson and Willy Peralta and it look like the brewers have developed 3 front end starters, or have them in the making.

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Ben sheets was a two pitch pitcher as well. While Jungman may not be Sheets, to say his two main pitches are average is pretty far off the mark. His problem was never his stuff. It was always location. Which is why you can't just go off of his minor league numbers to project what he is going to be in the majors. It should come as no surprise that he is improving his location given his age and time in professional baseball. Nor should the fact that he does better than his minor league numbers indicate he would since he gained some control. I have no idea if he can maintain his control over the course of the season, or his career for that matter, but he has the stuff to be more than a back end of the rotation guy.

 

I did mention I thought he could be a solid mid rotation guy if he found a way to control the baseball and add a third pitch. I also called his pitches average in scouting terms...Which would be a lot more strict than what you are probably thinking. He has two quality pitches no doubt about it. Neither is going to blow hitters away though.

 

I'd like him to do something similar to Jimmy Nelson and add that third pitch. If he could do that I think his outlook/potential would look a lot better. I'd also like to wait and see if he can really keep up the good control/location. That is a ton to ask out of a guy of his height.

 

Right now I'd probably say he ends up a 3.50-4.20 ERA pitcher. Mainly hinging on whether or not he can utilize his height consistently(has so far.) He is an exciting arm though and cool to have a guy come up dominating like he has. Watching him as the season progresses should be one of the more interesting things to watch.

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Two things:

 

1) Having watched most of all of his starts, I would not say that his curveball is "pretty average". When it's on, it's pretty darned good. Occasionally he won't throw it well, but last night he made one of the best hitters in the game, Adrian Gonzalez, look pretty bad with it. It has a late, sharp break, with both vertical and some horizontal break.

 

2) Fastball quality isn't all about velocity, it's about deception and location too. See: Fiers, Mike. Jungmann throws a few mph harder than Fiers, but Fiers delivery is so deceptive that it appears faster than it really is, and because of that Fiers can go up the ladder to strike guys out on high 90 mph fastballs. Jungmann has some deception to his delivery, which can make his fastball appear faster than it really is, and he's done a good job of locating it low in the zone. A common comp for Jungmann has been Jered Weaver, and while it has been a few years since I've seen Weaver pitch, I don't recall Weaver throwing harder than 91-92. Too many people (pitchers and armchair evaluators) focus too much on the radar gun and not enough on deception and delivery.

 

You can't go entirely on minor league numbers because most players are learning different mechanics/new pitches and it takes a while to learn them. They have said that they made a lot of mechanical adjustments to TJ's delivery - he supposedly used to throw even more cross-fire than he does now - and it takes a while to learn that. Certainly pitching in Colorado Springs isn't going to help with your curveball because you need friction between the air and the seams to make the ball break, and when the air is thinner there is less friction.

 

I don't doubt that he will regress a bit, certainly the BABIP suggests he will, but I think he is a better pitcher than his minor league numbers may indicate.

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Definitely reason to be optimistic. I'd say he certainly has the long-term potential to be a solid #3 or #4 starter, which, considering the Brewers' struggles to develop pitching, is fantastic

 

I like the intangibles I see from Jungmann: he competes. He has some intensity about him. He likes to go after hitters

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!
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I guess I could back track and say he does have a third pitch. Not a great third pitch, but a more of a change of pace pitch to keep hitters on their toes. His sinker is his calling card, curve, and then his straight fastballs.

 

2 steamer/4 steamer

Sinker

Curveball

 

I think what we are seeing right now is his ultimate ceiling if he had everything go right for him. If he were to be a consistent pitcher and have everything working for him, which is a 3.25 ERA type pitcher. However, with his height I just don't think it is realistic to expect him to have his command consistently enough to warrant a ERA that low. Hence why I went with more of a mid 3 ERA for his ceiling.

 

You never know though. He wouldn't be the first guy to just suddenly figure out what he is doing once he makes the show. The defense behind him could also play a big factor in his long term success. A 6'6" starter is always very attractive...Even more so when half your games are at Miller Park.

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Having watched most of all of his starts, I would not say that his curveball is "pretty average". When it's on, it's pretty darned good. Occasionally he won't throw it well, but last night he made one of the best hitters in the game, Adrian Gonzalez, look pretty bad with it. It has a late, sharp break, with both vertical and some horizontal break.

 

Joe Block was on Twitter last night stating that Jungmann changed his curveball grip after he was drafted and was first comfortable with the pitch last season. Block also said Jungmann cited the altitude in Colorado Springs with difficulties spinning the curve.

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The chatter on Jungmann is starting to increase on Jungmann so I think he deserves his own thread. Many are wondering how he is doing it here, but had a sky high ERA in AAA. Calm that excitmemt because he will come back down to earth eventually(not to AAA numbers):

 

1. His walk rate is not very characteristic of him. He has been at 2.35/9 here and for most of his career he has sat at 4.0/9. He has battled in a lot of 3 ball counts over his MLB starts and it wouldn't be surprising to have his walk rate go up some.

 

2. Opposing teams are batting .252 on balls in play...that is not going to stay that low. Those are dominant cy young level numbers and Jungmann should regress to at least his .300 minor league numbers eventually.

 

3. He is only a 2 pitch pitcher right now. Both of his main offerings are pretty average so he is going to have to figure out a 3rd pitch eventually. He has hardly thrown his change up to this point. Long term this is a big cause for concern.

 

People can't forget the fact that Jungmann has never been that impressive throughout his MiLB career. He has the chance to be a solid back end of the rotation pitcher or a mid rotation guy if he harnesses better control and a 3rd pitch. This is no knock on Jungmann, he has done a lot of things to like. I have been quite impressed with him even taking the above into consideration. That doesn't change the fact he is playing over his head and taking advantage of the lack of knowledge on him though.

 

(Feel free to use this thread for anything related to Jungmann)

 

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"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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I really like the way the kid has come in and pitched and love the way he gets grounballs. I guess we see over the course how he does but all fans have to be excited to see the young arm doing well.

 

Of course. I just wanted to counter some of the comments I have seen. I have seen one person call him a possible ace, many consider him a top 3 prospect, and outside of this forum many are calling him a future all star. I think much like Fiers people need to maybe not get those kind of aspirations. A lot of people want to connect his draft scouting report to these successes and he is nothing like that Jungmann anymore.

 

Good point on the groundballs, that is no fluke. If he can locate his pitches that sinker plus his height is going to create a lot of ground balls. Big part of his success.

 

I know some people don't get excited about mid rotation guys, but that is one less $10mil annual contract and another possible Garza/Wolf/Suppan avoided.

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I really like the way the kid has come in and pitched and love the way he gets grounballs. I guess we see over the course how he does but all fans have to be excited to see the young arm doing well.

 

Of course. I just wanted to counter some of the comments I have seen. I have seen one person call him a possible ace, many consider him a top 3 prospect, and outside of this forum many are calling him a future all star. I think much like Fiers people need to maybe not get those kind of aspirations. A lot of people want to connect his draft scouting report to these successes and he is nothing like that Jungmann anymore.

 

Good point on the groundballs, that is no fluke. If he can locate his pitches that sinker plus his height is going to create a lot of ground balls. Big part of his success.

 

I know some people don't get excited about mid rotation guys, but that is one less $10mil annual contract and another possible Garza/Wolf/Suppan avoided.

 

 

One guy would called him a potential ace was jonathan lucroy.

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i hear you but you can almost bet that Cravy will be back in Colorado as soon as Garza and Perelta are back unless one of the top 2 starters are gone. Wager will probally not move from Biloxi and at this point can't see any reason why Jungmann is not in this rotation.
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Who knows at this point what exactly his future holds, way to early.

 

That said, i'm just thrilled that Jungmann is pitching so well so far given his minor league stats to this point had been pedestrian at best for a guy drafted 12th overall.

 

I do wonder though if there might be something to him focusing better by being in the majors? Not only is his living his childhood dream by being in the majors, he's no long pitching in Colorado, getting frustrated, and wondering if he'd ever reach that dream.

 

Or this great start to his MLB career could be mostly a fluke. I don't know what to think except being extremely happy to see what he's doing so far compared to the pessimistic expectations i had for him.

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Looking a little deeper at his stats, there are a few things that are a cause for concern:

 

LHB's have a .322 OBP vs him

 

He has struggled in Miller Park (opponents hitting .306 vs him there with a .395 OBP in *small sample alert* 2 games)

 

Most of his success has come in extreme pitcxher's parks (LA) or vs teams that are really struggling (CIN/PHI). He did pitch really well at Pittsburgh

 

We'll see.....

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!
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I am sure there is something degrading about going out and getting rocked every start in Colorado. Knowing that your curve just isn't going to work etc. Very crummy situation the Brewers will have to live with another season.
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From a mental standpoint, this is his stage and he feeds on it. He likes the big stage and U think it helps his confidence and focus by being now at the highest level. Anyone who use to watch him in college know he has that competitive it factor when pressure is on.

 

Last year 2nd half, he was phenomenal! Sadly this year, him and his peers were feed to the dogs in Colorado Springs. In beginning of career, he had to change curveball grip, change mechanics a little bit. With an under developed change up and learning to control a new curveball, hard to see great results. He slid over on mound last year, harnessed curve more, and started to see results.

 

I'm not saying he is an ace but I don't look seriously at what he did a AAA this year and understand earlier issues. With him, it's all about command. He is a contact hitter so defensive and luck is also important. As of now I'm encouraged and he is the most consistent starter in rotation with Fiers as of right now.

Proud member since 2003 (geez ha I was 14 then)

 

FORMERLY BrewCrewWS2008 and YoungGeezy don't even remember other names used

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I think Young Geezy1 has hit on something with the embracing of the big stage. That appears to be in his makeup. Texas is a big time program and he excelled there.

 

I'm excited about a rotation going forward that features Peralta, Nelson and Jungmann at the top of it. Is there an "ace" in that group? Possibly, but I think they push each other and regardless have the chance to be successful starting pitchers. They don't need vets like Lohse around to "guide" them. Those predicting a period of "darkness" for this franchise need to take off the shades.

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Well, the period of darkness has already begun. Not sure if you've checked the standings lately. With that said, if Peralta, Nelson, and Jungmann can pitch at or near their ceiling consistently- then yes the period of darkness will be reduced.
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