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"Buy Low" Free Agents...


Looking through the Athletic's list of free agents (https://theathletic.com/3087046/2022/01/25/top-70-remaining-mlb-free-agents-jim-bowdens-cheat-sheet-for-when-baseball-returns/), I see some of players who might be good "buy low" candidates.

 

Zach Greinke - He's older, but if you were looking to deal Houser and/or Lauer for offensive help, Greinke could be someone who wouldn't be a bad #4 starter behind Woody/Burnes/Peralta.

Ryan Zimmerman - Also older, and not quite the offensive force he was, but might be an interesting "soft platoon" candidate/insurance for Tellez.

Zach Davies - He's 28, pitched well in 2020 and with the Crew. Probably would be excellent to replenish depth assuming a Houser/Lauer trade.

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"Though he’s back on the free agent market, Zimmerman has stated on multiple occasions that he never plans to suit up for another team."

 

I know that guys will generally go where the most money is, but Zimmerman has made enough money that if he can't play in Washington, he's probably just gonna hang up the spikes.

 

https://wtop.com/washington-nationals/2021/11/ryan-zimmerman-plans-to-play-in-2022-but-no-decisions-either-way-yet/#:~:text=2%20months%20old-,Ryan%20Zimmerman%20plans%20to%20play%20in%202022,no%20decisions%20either%20way%20yet'&text=Though%20he's%20back%20on%20the,suit%20up%20for%20another%20team.

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I don't believe the Brewers are going to play much in FA and none of the players suggested so far look to be a target the Brewers would go after. If the Brewers trade Lauer or Houser they would more than likely just go with Anderson again than go with Greinke or Davies.

 

The Brewers have a better chance of convincing Yount to come out of retirement and play for them than they do with signing Zimmerman.

 

I think Conforto makes the most sense for the Brewers. Put him in LF and have Yelich DH for the majority of the games. I don't believe Conforto will cost all that much and he should be available when the Brewers start to sign FA which is going to be after Burnes, Woodruff and Hader have their arbitration settled.

 

Some relievers to keep in mind to fill out the bullpen: Rosenthal, Colome, Carlos Martinez, Martin Perez or Marshall.

 

I believe the Brewers will go with 1 or 2 relievers in FA and then one bat. Depending on how much Burnes, Woodruff and Hader cost in arbitration there maybe enough to sign someone like Schwarber or Conforto.

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"Though he’s back on the free agent market, Zimmerman has stated on multiple occasions that he never plans to suit up for another team."

 

I know that guys will generally go where the most money is, but Zimmerman has made enough money that if he can't play in Washington, he's probably just gonna hang up the spikes.

 

https://wtop.com/washington-nationals/2021/11/ryan-zimmerman-plans-to-play-in-2022-but-no-decisions-either-way-yet/#:~:text=2%20months%20old-,Ryan%20Zimmerman%20plans%20to%20play%20in%202022,no%20decisions%20either%20way%20yet'&text=Though%20he's%20back%20on%20the,suit%20up%20for%20another%20team.

 

You are almost certainly right, but if Stearns likes him it would be worth the call. Maybe he'd come back to play a limited role for a team that has a pretty good shot at making the playoffs. Then he can sign a one-day deal with the Nats next offseason to retire with them.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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Zimmerman is done, why are we even discussing this guy?

 

Once again, if he is the best target we can think of for DH, we are in trouble.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
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I don't believe the Brewers are going to play much in FA and none of the players suggested so far look to be a target the Brewers would go after. If the Brewers trade Lauer or Houser they would more than likely just go with Anderson again than go with Greinke or Davies.

 

The Brewers have a better chance of convincing Yount to come out of retirement and play for them than they do with signing Zimmerman.

 

I think Conforto makes the most sense for the Brewers. Put him in LF and have Yelich DH for the majority of the games. I don't believe Conforto will cost all that much and he should be available when the Brewers start to sign FA which is going to be after Burnes, Woodruff and Hader have their arbitration settled.

 

Some relievers to keep in mind to fill out the bullpen: Rosenthal, Colome, Carlos Martinez, Martin Perez or Marshall.

 

I believe the Brewers will go with 1 or 2 relievers in FA and then one bat. Depending on how much Burnes, Woodruff and Hader cost in arbitration there maybe enough to sign someone like Schwarber or Conforto.

 

I agree about Zimmerman and I think he wouldn't be worth the money anyway. I think Brosseau has a lot of upside and is much more versatile.

Conforto made $12.5 last year and with borass as an agent, he will be looking for a lot more and a long term deal. Schwarber declined $11.5M and is said to be looking for $18-20M plus a longer term deal. I

think both are going to be quite a bit out of the Brewers' price range.

I don't know how much Rosenthal will be looking for. He's coming off hip surgery, but had an $11M contract last year. If he is healthy and willing to come down to $4-5M he might be worth it. Martinez really stunk for the last two years, but getting him out of StLouis may be worth it if he too would be willing to come way, way down from his $11M previous contract. Colome and Perez would be a waste of roster space.

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Zimmerman is done, why are we even discussing this guy?

 

Once again, if he is the best target we can think of for DH, we are in trouble.

 

Because he can still hit LHP.

 

2021 vs LHP (116 PA) .291/.319/.582/.901 133 wRC+

2020 Did not play

2019 vs LHP (53 PA) .367/.415/.551/.966 151 wRC+

 

As noted, he is highly unlikely to sign anywhere, but his ability to hit LHP is why he could be appealing to platoon at 1B or DH.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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I don't believe the Brewers are going to play much in FA and none of the players suggested so far look to be a target the Brewers would go after. If the Brewers trade Lauer or Houser they would more than likely just go with Anderson again than go with Greinke or Davies.

 

The Brewers have a better chance of convincing Yount to come out of retirement and play for them than they do with signing Zimmerman.

 

I think Conforto makes the most sense for the Brewers. Put him in LF and have Yelich DH for the majority of the games. I don't believe Conforto will cost all that much and he should be available when the Brewers start to sign FA which is going to be after Burnes, Woodruff and Hader have their arbitration settled.

 

Some relievers to keep in mind to fill out the bullpen: Rosenthal, Colome, Carlos Martinez, Martin Perez or Marshall.

 

I believe the Brewers will go with 1 or 2 relievers in FA and then one bat. Depending on how much Burnes, Woodruff and Hader cost in arbitration there maybe enough to sign someone like Schwarber or Conforto.

 

I would love to add Conforto but pretty sure he's gonna want more than the $18.4 mil QO he declined... Hope Im wrong as I would really love to add him or Soler as our DH.

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Conforto may want more than the QO or more than he made last year but I doubt he tops the QO or even gets close to it. I don't think he will sign a long term deal and will instead sign a one year deal. Schwarber more than likely gets more than he made last year but again on a short term deal 3-4 years is my guess.

 

Rosenthal coming off an injury would definitely get less and Martinez due to performance will also get less. Colome and Perez wouldn't be a waste as they would be back of the bullpen pieces. The Brewers have a few that they need to replace from last year and one of Colome or Perez would be good additions. Both shouldn't cost more than $5m and probably will sign for less. Perez had an off year last year with the Red Sox but put together a really nice 2020. I think he is better than what he was in 2020 and will improve in a bullpen role over a starting role. Having to throw only a couple of pitches instead of his whole arsenal should give him some improvements. Colome I think will bounce back and will be a good bullpen addition for anyone who signs him. Should be a one year deal around $3-5m.

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Greinke would be of interest on two fronts should the Brewers trade Houser and/or Lauer:

1. He still is a darn good pitcher, even if he isn't at his peak.

2. It does let Ashby stay as a relief option.

 

I'd probably also take Davies as a possible #7/#8 starter option that would be better than Lindblom, depending on option years.

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Conforto was really really bad last year and needs to platoon. Who knows I guess, baseball markets are crazy but I'd guess people aren't lined up to hand him a big deal. I think he could fall in line with the idea of this thread, in that he might be a Moose/Grandal type option. Not bargain shopping like some guys here that'll go for under 5 mil, but still a buy low (relative to what he looked like 12-24 months ago) in that you might hope you can get on 1 year not crazy deal so he can hope for a rebound and cash in the following year.
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Conforto was really really bad last year and needs to platoon. Who knows I guess, baseball markets are crazy but I'd guess people aren't lined up to hand him a big deal. I think he could fall in line with the idea of this thread, in that he might be a Moose/Grandal type option. Not bargain shopping like some guys here that'll go for under 5 mil, but still a buy low (relative to what he looked like 12-24 months ago) in that you might hope you can get on 1 year not crazy deal so he can hope for a rebound and cash in the following year.

 

I just don't see any use for Conforto, especially on a one year, prove it deal. He has borass as an agent and didn't play well in his walk year. The Brewers are paying Cain about $18M to play CF, Yelich in LF, and Renfroe in RF, with Taylor in reserve. I don't think they would want to take a chance on paying him as a DH.

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I personally wouldn't pick him either. He was awful last year and then we have to worry about platooning him because he can't hit lefties. Only way I'd consider is a one year deal at a reasonable rate, I wouldn't go to Moose/Grandall levels. Thing is we do have good platoons for him with Taylor/Renfroe already. Will he take that here, I doubt it, and I wouldn't lose sleep over it. But, it would be a buy low hope for bounceback type thing which is what this thread is about.

 

To that post, Yelich would likely be the primary DH in such a scenario, of course with a lot of guys getting rest days at DH. He's constantly hurt and is poor at D anyway.

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Tommy Pham I think offers some "buy low" opportunity, though I'm not sure his buy low contract will be low enough to involve the Brewers.

 

If you really want to scrape I like taking a shot on Vince Velasquez. If he could harness some control he's still got potential. Maybe a transition to the bull-pen is in order.

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I'm hoping that Yelich sees the bulk of our DH duties if the roster stays like it is now.

 

Taylor, Cain and Renfro full time in the OF, Yelich DH. Yelich can then play a game or 2 in the OF per week and Have Taylor slide to CF for the Cain off days.

 

I'd bet that Cain plays fewer than 81 games this year though, so I think we are definitely going to have to have another OFer that we can count on to get 400 at bats.

Edited by turborickey
"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
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Good catch with Velasquez. No idea on what contract he'd pull and whether it would be reasonable here. But he really seems like the type this pitching training/coaching could get a hold of and turn into a good piece. As you said, more likely in relief spot, maybe getting 2-3 innings out of at times.
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Brad Hand is projected as a 0.1 WAR player on Fangraphs Free Agent Tracker. If that's the way MLB front offices see him, then he's probably looking at a 1 year deal somewhere around 4 million dollars. There are some red flags in that his 2021 K rate went way down and the BB rate went way up. His slider was as effective as it has been in the past, but his fastball effectiveness went way down. Normally one would then expect to see a big drop in velocity, but his fastball velocity was the best it has been since 2018. The % of hard hit balls also went way down, maybe that's just in line with the move away from a juiced ball, but the key is it dropped by 6% and didn't stay where it was at. Another odd thing was the hitters made contact with pitches outside of the strike zone 70.9% of the time they swung at those pitches, which is much higher than it's been the last few season could be a fluky number that partially explains the drop in the K%. Overall, there's enough in the peripherals to make me want to take a chance on him if the price is right, despite coming off a poor season.
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I wonder what Kevin Pillar is looking for, decent cover for Cain, can probably fill in any of the OF positions. Good for 15 to 20 HR, might not be a bad 4th/5th OF .
unless there’s a trade or Cain surprisingly retires, he seems redundant with Taylor already providing a 4th OF
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I wonder if Yusmeiro Petit might be a good low cost option for the pen. He’s from Venezuela too.

 

I'd be cool with Yusmeiro. Over the last five seasons he's at 363 IP (1st) with a 72 ERA- which shakes out to 7.6 rWAR & +8.27 WPA, with both those marks ranking 6th among all relievers.

 

His peripherals, 89 FIP- & 102 xFIP-, and age (37 for the 2022 season) could keep the size of his contract in reasonable range.

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