2022 Brewers Offense

[brewers888]

We have a manager and I'm sure the front office is in agreement in thinking that Cain and McCutchen have to be in the lineup nearly every day. The appeal of McCutchen was against lefties and lefties only yet he plays every game and lets be honest Woodruff can probably outhit Cain at this point.

[sveumrules]

18 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

FanGraphs projected the Brewers to be 20th in MLB in runs scored before the season started. It's going to take more than just players returning to their projected performance for them to have even an average offense, much less one that isn't significantly less potent than the top teams in the NL.

For whatever it is or isn't worth, BPro has them projected 6th in the NL/11th in MLB by DC RS if I counted right, so they are a little higher on the Brewers positive regression potential as the season progresses...

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ 

But yeah, in a macro sense the guys we have need to start hitting better and even if (hopefully when) they do Stearns & company are still likely going to need to supplement the offense during the season.

However it shakes out, I'm pretty confident they'll end the season much higher than the 75 wRC+ (28th) and 3.29 R/G (26th) marks they've put up through the first 10% of the season, 

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

We have a manager and I'm sure the front office is in agreement in thinking that Cain and McCutchen have to be in the lineup nearly every day. The appeal of McCutchen was against lefties and lefties only yet he plays every game and lets be honest Woodruff can probably outhit Cain at this point.

Also has a negative effect on Hiura, as he is relegated to spot duty against lefties despite his reverse splits. Maximize the talent you have!

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

We have a manager and I'm sure the front office is in agreement in thinking that Cain and McCutchen have to be in the lineup nearly every day. The appeal of McCutchen was against lefties and lefties only yet he plays every game and lets be honest Woodruff can probably outhit Cain at this point.

Cain has started 10 of 17 games so far, about 59%. He's on pace for for about 362 plate appearances.

Not sure that's enough for nearly every day.

[Brock Beauchamp]

19 hours ago, brewers888 said:

Surely I will be criticized but how is this team a real threat to win the World Series when the lineup is this bad.

If the lineup continues to be this bad, sure. They're currently 28th in baseball with a wRC+ of 75.

Looking up and down this lineup, this is not a 28th place squad. They're not great by any means but they're also not terrible.

[Harold Hutchison]

Maybe Urias comes backs and boosts the offense at third.

Otherwise, maybe we'd better start praying for Ocho to decide it's time to make a comeback to don the blue and gold and maybe that Rookie of the Year offensive form returns...

[sveumrules]

15 hours ago, sveumrules said:

However it shakes out, I'm pretty confident they'll end the season much higher than the 75 wRC+ (28th) and 3.29 R/G (26th) marks they've put up through the first 10% of the season, 

One game of pouring it on later the Brewers are up to 82 wRC+ (24th) and 3.78 R/G (20th).

Team wRC+ going up 7% & R/G increasing by almost half a run after just one game is a pretty great illustration of how early in the season we are & how volatile all these numbers still are.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Maybe Urias comes backs and boosts the offense at third.

Otherwise, maybe we'd better start praying for Ocho to decide it's time to make a comeback to don the blue and gold and maybe that Rookie of the Year offensive form returns...

I'm not even sure Braun really enjoyed playing baseball when he was in his MVP prime. He certainly isn't going to come back now.

[young guns]

Clearly the offense doesn't suck, they just haven't played the pirates enough.

[MVP2110]

Kind of an oddity, not really hitting related but just position player related, Jace Peterson currently is tied for the 5th highest WAR on the team(tied for 2nd highest among position players). This is entirely due to his Defensive WAR of 0.5(-0.1 offensive WAR)

[Opening Day]

2 hours ago, young guns said:

Clearly the offense doesn't suck, they just haven't played the pirates enough.

So far they played 22% of their games against the Pirates, 11% of their games all season are against the Pirates.  They've also played 17% of their games against the AL Pirates (Orioles).

Im happy with the record but also hoping Urias gives them a boost going forward.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Opening Day said:

So far they played 22% of their games against the Pirates, 11% of their games all season are against the Pirates.  They've also played 17% of their games against the AL Pirates (Orioles).

Im happy with the record but also hoping Urias gives them a boost going forward.

True. But thankfully the hitters currently on the roster are massively underperforming their expected stats, too. You figure that a return to the mean, along with the addition of Urias, should bring this offense to the middle of the pack offensively, which is right where they were last year. Now, we obviously saw where that got us, so hopefully Stearns has a move or two up his sleeve to bolster the offense and get it to a point where we're not relying on our pitchers to be perfect for us to win games in the postseason. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Opening Day said:

So far they played 22% of their games against the Pirates, 11% of their games all season are against the Pirates.  They've also played 17% of their games against the AL Pirates (Orioles).

Im happy with the record but also hoping Urias gives them a boost going forward.

But they played the AL Pirates in Camden, where fly balls now go to die. It’s a rough ballpark for offense now, despite it being occupied by the AL Pirates’ pitching staff. 

[Opening Day]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

But they played the AL Pirates in Camden, where fly balls now go to die. It’s a rough ballpark for offense now, despite it being occupied by the AL Pirates’ pitching staff. 

I was speaking more about the strength of schedule than specifically the offense.   I saw today them listed as 29th in SOS.  11-7 is great, Im not complaining, but the offense is going to have to get better as the competition inproves.  And I know SOS, like every other stat at this point is a small sample size, however I dont see those aforementioned teams getting much better over time.

[RobDeer 45]

Should fan’s expectations of their team’s offense be lower moving forward?  Between the new baseballs and the pitching getting better every year, it’s tough out there, I’m starting to wonder if bad offense is the new normal.  This team is built for pitching and defense as well.  It seems that if we are middle of the pack on offense we should be ok with that.

[torts]

5 hours ago, RobDeer 45 said:

Should fan’s expectations of their team’s offense be lower moving forward?  Between the new baseballs and the pitching getting better every year, it’s tough out there, I’m starting to wonder if bad offense is the new normal.  This team is built for pitching and defense as well.  It seems that if we are middle of the pack on offense we should be ok with that.

DS was years ahead of us all

[Brewcrew82]

If people thought we were the only ones with offensive problems early on, the Red Sox are currently being shut out by the Blue Jays, with.....(checks box score).....JACKIE BRADLEY JR hitting in the heart of their order. Meanwhile, Travis Shaw is also in the lineup as their DH and remains HITLESS on the SEASON. Granted, they also have Devers and Bogaerts but I still can't really say I'd wanna switch places with them at the moment.

[owbc]

Unless the ball also got smaller, it's hard to blame it on the ridiculously high strikeout rate. 

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

Unless the ball also got smaller, it's hard to blame it on the ridiculously high strikeout rate. 

Strikeouts are actually down slightly so far this year (23.1 K%) vs April of last year (23.8 K%).

HR/FB% on the other hand is waaay down this year (10.0%) vs last April (13.4%). Which has really cut into SLG & R/G where AVG/OBP are only down slightly…

Apr 21: 238/313/397 (4.26 R/G)  

Apr 22: 231/307/369 (4.04 R/G)

Offense typically heats up with the weather & 2021 ended up at 247/321/418 (4.53 R/G) with a 22.6 K%, will be interesting to see if the humidor/new ball combo cuts into those gains somewhat this summer.

[BruisedCrew]

On 4/28/2022 at 9:33 AM, RobDeer 45 said:

Should fan’s expectations of their team’s offense be lower moving forward?  Between the new baseballs and the pitching getting better every year, it’s tough out there, I’m starting to wonder if bad offense is the new normal.  This team is built for pitching and defense as well.  It seems that if we are middle of the pack on offense we should be ok with that.

When offense is down all over, I agree that fans should lower their expectations for offense in an absolute sense. Expectations for things like individual BA, OPS, HR totals, and team runs scored totals should be lower.

The same should also be true for absolute pitching stats like ERA, where numbers that would have been exceptional in some recent seasons will now be more common.

But, in a relative sense, middle of the pack is still middle of the pack. In any given year there are likely to be almost half of the teams that are going to be non competitive, in  many cases because they are actively rebuilding or borderline tanking. Being middle of the pack probably means close to the bottom of the pack of serious playoff contenders, several of which are likely to have both pitching and hitting close to the top of the pack.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

31 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

When offense is down all over, I agree that fans should lower their expectations for offense in an absolute sense. Expectations for things like individual BA, OPS, HR totals, and team runs scored totals should be lower.

The same should also be true for absolute pitching stats like ERA, where numbers that would have been exceptional in some recent seasons will now be more common.

This is why I almost always use relative stats like OPS+, ERA+, wRC+, etc. No need to do mental gymnastics to evaluate a number, the number itself does the adjusting for you.

[tmwiese55]

True.  But being likely one of the true elite pitching teams along with LAD, if the offense could just get to average rather than below average should be enough to have a solid chance come playoffs.   Asking this bunch to actually become good is too much to ask, only way that could've happened was if Yelich and/or Huira became their old selves.   

Sure it's frustrating to watch sputtering offense every day, but big pic with this pitching they're likely to win the division and a good shot at the top two seed for the bye.  I know it's frustrating being in the playoffs and losing for several years, but once you're in you have a chance in baseball.  As MKE fans we jsut have to understand you're almost always going to be underdogs at that point, just the nature of the financials of baseball.  But this is the sport with the most chance for underdogs winning in postseason, especially if you're an elite pitching teams.  Do it enough times and hopefully it falls your way once. 

[BruisedCrew]

20 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If people thought we were the only ones with offensive problems early on, the Red Sox are currently being shut out by the Blue Jays, with.....(checks box score).....JACKIE BRADLEY JR hitting in the heart of their order. Meanwhile, Travis Shaw is also in the lineup as their DH and remains HITLESS on the SEASON. Granted, they also have Devers and Bogaerts but I still can't really say I'd wanna switch places with them at the moment.

I don't know of anyone who thinks the Brewers are the only team with offensive problems.

As I said in a post on this thread a few days ago, offense is down all over, but the Brewers are well below the league average., Even after the 12 run outburst the other day, the Brewers are still 20th in MLB in runs scored per game. The fact that that game was surrounded by games of scoring 1,2,3, and 3 runs suggests that the 12 run outburst was an outlier, not a sign that the offense is coming around. Maybe some games in the relative warmth of AFF against the Cubs and Reds will bring the offense to life.

As for the Red Sox, they are one of the teams seen as a playoff contender in the brutal AL East that has struggled offensively early in the season. After yesterday's shutout, the Bosox RPG of 3.60 puts them at 21st in MLB, just behind the Brewers. But, using yesterday's lineup and performance to illustrate anything is somewhat misleading. Facing Jays' ace Alex Manoah they fielded a vintage getaway day lineup, giving both Bogaerts (who was 4 for 4 the night before and has an OPS of .943) and JD Martinez who has the team's second best OPS of .826.

Between having some established veteran hitters in the middle of the lineup and, like the Brewers, some other hitters who are having early struggles (including Story and Hernandez), I would bet that, as the season progresses, the Red Sox offense will be more productive than the Brewers. They probably feel like they can absorb Bradley's offense in order to have someone who can cover ground in the outfield.

I would swap offenses with theirs in a second. Regardless, if I was rooting for a team that has won 4 World Series in the last 20 years, I would probably be more patient.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

I don't know of anyone who thinks the Brewers are the only team with offensive problems.

As I said in a post on this thread a few days ago, offense is down all over, but the Brewers are well below the league average., Even after the 12 run outburst the other day, the Brewers are still 20th in MLB in runs scored per game. The fact that that game was surrounded by games of scoring 1,2,3, and 3 runs suggests that the 12 run outburst was an outlier, not a sign that the offense is coming around. Maybe some games in the relative warmth of AFF against the Cubs and Reds will bring the offense to life.

As for the Red Sox, they are one of the teams seen as a playoff contender in the brutal AL East that has struggled offensively early in the season. After yesterday's shutout, the Bosox RPG of 3.60 puts them at 21st in MLB, just behind the Brewers. But, using yesterday's lineup and performance to illustrate anything is somewhat misleading. Facing Jays' ace Alex Manoah they fielded a vintage getaway day lineup, giving both Bogaerts (who was 4 for 4 the night before and has an OPS of .943) and JD Martinez who has the team's second best OPS of .826.

Between having some established veteran hitters in the middle of the lineup and, like the Brewers, some other hitters who are having early struggles (including Story and Hernandez), I would bet that, as the season progresses, the Red Sox offense will be more productive than the Brewers. They probably feel like they can absorb Bradley's offense in order to have someone who can cover ground in the outfield.

I would swap offenses with theirs in a second. Regardless, if I was rooting for a team that has won 4 World Series in the last 20 years, I would probably be more patient.

Wasn't really a systematic argument as much as it was a rhetorical point. A lot of teams, including the Red Sox, are having major offensive issues right now. We are 13-7 despite ours. Does that mean that our offense as presently constituted is "good enough" and that we shouldn't pursue upgrades? Of course not, and I'm fully expecting that they will the further the season goes on. But it really gets quite tiring having to constantly hear on here (from the same few people, mind you) how "bad" our offense is despite the fact that 1) we're winning 2) we're significantly underperforming our expected stats 3) we've been without one of our best hitters the entire time and 4) Stearns' proven history of in-season trade upgrades. 

[BruisedCrew]

6 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Wasn't really a systematic argument as much as it was a rhetorical point. A lot of teams, including the Red Sox, are having major offensive issues right now. We are 13-7 despite ours. Does that mean that our offense as presently constituted is "good enough" and that we shouldn't pursue upgrades? Of course not, and I'm fully expecting that they will the further the season goes on. But it really gets quite tiring having to constantly hear on here (from the same few people, mind you) how "bad" our offense is despite the fact that 1) we're winning 2) we're significantly underperforming our expected stats 3) we've been without one of our best hitters the entire time and 4) Stearns' proven history of in-season trade upgrades. 

Do you think it is also tiring to constantly hear on here every time some other team gets shut out (or no hit) as if that has any relevance to the Brewers offense?