2022 Brewers Offense

[DR28]

14 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Most of those players you mentioned are not all that good and even the good hitters like Adames and Urias are nothing special. 

Wow tough crowd… U dont think Yelich, Adames and Urias are a good core… And guys like Renfroe, Taylor, Tellez, Wong are good supporting cast?

[brewers888]

7 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Wow tough crowd… U dont think Yelich, Adames and Urias are a good core… And guys like Renfroe, Taylor, Tellez, Wong are good supporting cast?

Yelich hasn't been good in years and while Adames and Urias are decent players they shouldn't be the best hitters on a contending team. 

[DR28]

5 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Yelich hasn't been good in years and while Adames and Urias are decent players they shouldn't be the best hitters on a contending team. 

Got it, who should be on this team then??

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

I noticed Yeli has been in leadoff spot since Wong has been out of lineup... If he keeps hitting in leadoff spot, does everyone think he stays there and Wong drops to 7 spot when he's back?

Idk how I feel yet about him in leadoff spot and also dont know how I feel about Cutch as 3 hole hitter.

I would bat Yelich leadoff for the time being whether Wong is in the lineup or not. Maybe it will help Yelich if he just focuses on getting on base instead of being in a primary RBI position. And when he gets in base he is the team’s best base runner. 

[trwi7]

2 hours ago, DR28 said:

Wow tough crowd… U dont think Yelich, Adames and Urias are a good core… And guys like Renfroe, Taylor, Tellez, Wong are good supporting cast?

If it was, the offense would be good and this wouldn't be a thread.

[Warning Track Power]

Can we finally accept that Counsell gets a pass for having no answers for the offense being consistently terrible?  For as much as the “pitching lab” gets credit, the inability of this regime to identify and coach their way out of slumps and the lack of questioning baffles me. 

[brewers888]

52 minutes ago, Warning Track Power said:

Can we finally accept that Counsell gets a pass for having no answers for the offense being consistently terrible?  For as much as the “pitching lab” gets credit, the inability of this regime to identify and coach their way out of slumps and the lack of questioning baffles me. 

Stearns deserves far more of the blame for this offense because these players just aren't any good. As well as he has done with the drafting of pitchers he has been equally inept in turns of developing position player talent.

[DR28]

I must be the only one on here that believes in Yelich, Adames, Urias core and likes the players we have around them.

[DR28]

I dont get it, offense has looked terrible but we’re still 12th in MLB in runs scored.

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, DR28 said:

I dont get it, offense has looked terrible but we’re still 12th in MLB in runs scored.

3 runs a game over the last 11. That puts a lot of pressure on the pitching to be elite, and they haven't stepped up (6.64 runs per game).

[Pugger]

9 hours ago, DR28 said:

I must be the only one on here that believes in Yelich, Adames, Urias core and likes the players we have around them.

No you are not.  These 3 along with Wong, Peterson and Telles are players we can build around.  The shocking thing right now is a lack of hitting up and down the lineup along with shaky pitching is causing this long nightmare of a losing streak.  I can't believe they will never win again but right now things are pretty bleak.

[Thurston Fluff]

11 hours ago, DR28 said:

I dont get it, offense has looked terrible but we’re still 12th in MLB in runs scored.

It's an all or nothing offense. There will be times like this but there will also be times when they hit multiple home runs several games in a row. I really don't know how that can be fixed given our limited resources in both money and prospects. The good news is if the team gets on one of those good streaks in the playoffs this team can beat anybody.

[Fear The Chorizo]

On 6/11/2022 at 9:25 PM, DR28 said:

I dont get it, offense has looked terrible but we’re still 12th in MLB in runs scored.

Look around the rest of the league - many teams have all or nothing offenses and as a whole, offensive production looks like MLB found a way to raise the pitchers mound without telling anybody.  The leaguewide batting average in 2022 puts this rendition of offense into the late 1960s or dead ball era.  The average hits per team per game during seasons 2020-2022 are the same - either dead ball era or late 1960s.

 

Teams with good offenses are actually the outliers - I expect production to go up a bit now that summer is here across the league, but there are just 15 qualified hitters across all of MLB hitting over 0.300, and just 1 over 0.350.

 

Specific to the Brewers, Rowdy is their OPS team leader at 0.780, 48th in the league...and he has been slumping of late.  To not have a single hitter in the top 50 MLB hitters for OPS means you just aren't putting consistent pressure on opposing pitchers - the brewers are still 3rd in MLB in team HRs, they just aren't doing anything else offensively than occasionally popping one over the fence.

[BruisedCrew]

On 6/11/2022 at 9:25 PM, DR28 said:

I dont get it, offense has looked terrible but we’re still 12th in MLB in runs scored.

Two things about this. 
 

One, the Brewers have played more games than several other teams, so if you look at runs scored per game, the Brewers are 18th in MLB with 4.31 RPG, just a fraction below the MLB average of 4.33 RPG.

Maybe more importantly, the Brewers goal is supposed to be to make the playoffs, not just league average. Look at the teams above and below the Brewers in RPG and you’ll see an almost perfect line between playoff contenders and teams that are either rebuilding or tanking. 

The preseason prognosis for the Brewers was that they would have great pitching (among the very best in MLB) but the big question was whether they would have “enough” offense to win even with that great pitching.

The problem for the team right now is that it definitely does not have one of the top pitching teams in MLB in terms of performance (not potential). In terms of runs allowed per game, the Brewers are 15th in MLB with 4.23 runs allowed per game, slightly better than the league average of 4.33.
 

Whether that worse than expected position in runs allowed per game is because of leaky defense, injuries, or unexpectedly poor performance is largely irrelevant. A team that is around average in both runs scored and runs allowed (and sinking in both categories over the last month) is likely to be more of a .500 team than a solid playoff contender. 
 

 

[edfunderburk]

On 6/11/2022 at 9:22 PM, DR28 said:

I must be the only one on here that believes in Yelich, Adames, Urias core and likes the players we have around them.

Yes, you just might be 

[Lathund]

On 6/12/2022 at 4:22 AM, DR28 said:

I must be the only one on here that believes in Yelich, Adames, Urias core and likes the players we have around them.

You're not the only one, but you won't hear much of that during a bad streak. 

Mind you, I don't think it's a great offense. But when you read these forums, you'd think it was some historically bad offense, when it was always projected as, and has been so far, league average-ish. And with more upside than downside based on the more predictive metrics. Of course I'd like it to be more than that, but combine average offense with elite pitching, above average defense and above average baserunning and that's a playoff team for sure, especially in a weak division. Now what this team needs is primarily to improve offense in CF and from the DH spot. Get anything even close to league average production there and it's an above average offense already. I just hope MA is committed to getting an upgrade there; his talk about "stretching the budget" for a 1-year deal for McCutchen doesn't bode well. 

[brewers888]

When your cleanup hitter is either Urias and his .215 average or McCutchen you are not a good offensive team.

[BruisedCrew]

On 6/11/2022 at 9:22 PM, DR28 said:

I must be the only one on here that believes in Yelich, Adames, Urias core and likes the players we have around them.

A significant part of the disagreement is that some people consider a “core” player for an offense to be a consistent, proven All Star caliber hitter who can anchor the middle of the lineup.

I put players like Moilitor, Yount, and Cooper and Braun and Fielder in that category. 
 

Compared to the best teams in the NL, what you are considering core players are closer to supporting cast than core. Yelich was supposed to be a core player, and Hiura supposedly had that potential. But neither of them fits that category now.
 

Adames could be a core player if he could hit the way he did for the Brewers last season. But there was always a question about whether that was a realistic expectation, and this season so far he has fallen far short of that. Urias’ track record is even less established, and he isn’t even producing like a good supporting player this season. 

[Jopal78]

37 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

A significant part of the disagreement is that some people consider a “core” player for an offense to be a consistent, proven All Star caliber hitter who can anchor the middle of the lineup.

I put players like Moilitor, Yount, and Cooper and Braun and Fielder in that category. 
 

Compared to the best teams in the NL, what you are considering core players are closer to supporting cast than core. Yelich was supposed to be a core player, and Hiura supposedly had that potential. But neither of them fits that category now.
 

Adames could be a core player if he could hit the way he did for the Brewers last season. But there was always a question about whether that was a realistic expectation, and this season so far he has fallen far short of that. Urias’ track record is even less established, and he isn’t even producing like a good supporting player this season. 

There isn't anything wrong with Adames, he's a great hitting shortstop, nobody should have realistically expected him to continue to produce an .890 OPS. Even with his drop in production he's still a top 5 hitting shortstop in the NL. 

Their core hitters are Yelich, Adames, and Tellez players who have been productive in the majors, are in the prime of their careers and under team control for multiple seasons. The problem is Tellez and the current version of Yelich have been disappointments this year.  

As for the supporting cast of veterans and short-timers, Kolten Wong has always been an up and down player and is not far from his career norms, ditto with Hunter Renfroe. When a player is a one or two good games from being at their career norms, its hard to be disappointed in their play. Narvaez smells that free agent money and is having a terrific year. Jace Peterson is probably amongst the best utility players in the NL. Caratini has been the best back up catcher in the NL this year. 

Tyrone Taylor is just a guy, Lorenzo Cain and McCutchen are two washed up veterans trying to hang on. I don't know if anyone knows what they truly have in Urias; sometimes he looks like an every day player, at others he looks like another light hitting middle infielder. 

What the Brewers lack and why their offense will likely continue to struggle is they have a collection of hitters who when going their best are fair to average hitters, they do not have that guy that hits for both average and power to pick up the slack. 

 

[BruisedCrew]

I agree that Adames is fine as an overall player. 
 

But when the subject is offense, Adames should not be expected to be a good team’s best hitter. 
 

Your final paragraph is a good summary of my opinion about the Brewers offense. 

[Brewcrew82]

Christian Yelich since being moved to the leadoff spot: .343/.378/.514 (152 OPS+), albeit in a small sample size. Still, that is the sort of production that we are paying for. Also, in nearly half of the games, he's almost equaled his HR and WAR totals from last season. 

Have the last two plus seasons been a disappointment following his otherworldly 2018-2019 campaigns? Sure. But he wouldn't be the first player to struggle for a few seasons only to suddenly rediscover his all star form. The main thing for Christian is to keep hitting the ball hard and to elevate it just a bit more often. 

[sveumrules]

4/7-5/15 (Renfroe/Adames healthy) 103 wRC+

5/24-6/5 (Renfroe/Adames hurt) 83 wRC+

6/8-6/19 (Renfroe/Adames back) 104 wRC+
 

[BruisedCrew]

On 6/20/2022 at 12:55 PM, sveumrules said:

4/7-5/15 (Renfroe/Adames healthy) 103 wRC+

5/24-6/5 (Renfroe/Adames hurt) 83 wRC+

6/8-6/19 (Renfroe/Adames back) 104 wRC+
 

So, my conclusion from this (and several other relevant stats) is that at full strength the Brewers offense is about average, but the worst among the 8 NL teams that are legitimate playoff contenders.

With any injuries they are even worse than that. 
 

Unless you expect a team to have no injuries to good players, while other teams deal with the normal and expected numbers of injuries,  as the season approaches the half way point, the clear conclusion is that the Brewers have a bad offense for a playoff contender.

[brewers888]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

So, my conclusion from this (and several other relevant stats) is that at full strength the Brewers offense is about average, but the worst among the 8 NL teams that are legitimate playoff contenders.

With any injuries they are even worse than that. 
 

Unless you expect a team to have no injuries to good players, while other teams deal with the normal and expected numbers of injuries,  as the season approaches the half way point, the clear conclusion is that the Brewers have a bad offense for a playoff contender.

With probably close to half of the teams in tank mode what does having an average offense mean. When you look at all the contenders in the National League which include the Mets, Braves, and Phillies in the East, Brewers and Cardinals in the Central, and the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants in the West the worst offense is the Brewers and they are substantially worse than most of those other teams. Being better on offense than teams like the Pirates and Nationals means little to nothing since those teams aren't even trying to compete.

[brewerfan82]

2 hours ago, brewers888 said:

With probably close to half of the teams in tank mode what does having an average offense mean. When you look at all the contenders in the National League which include the Mets, Braves, and Phillies in the East, Brewers and Cardinals in the Central, and the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants in the West the worst offense is the Brewers and they are substantially worse than most of those other teams. Being better on offense than teams like the Pirates and Nationals means little to nothing since those teams aren't even trying to compete.

Run differential is more important than rankings among contending teams. So having an average offense around 100 wRC+ is still significantly better than having an offense like the A's or Tigers around 76-77 wRC+ even though we'd be the worst playoff team offensively either way.

We have the second best xFIP in the majors at 3.58 (only behind the Yankees' at 3.48). That's how we can still be competitive with other playoff teams in limited playoff series with an average offense (that could also play above average for a short period of time during a playoff run).

That said, we could definitely use an offensive boost, I think everyone agrees on that, it's just a matter of what's realistic and what the cost is to get it.