Josh Hader Traded to the Padres

[Eye Black]

While I realize it likely won't remain intact for long, the Brewers updated top ten prospects list is looking quite solid. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I realize that. But how does this trade improve the Brewers prospects for making or advancing in the playoffs this year.

Rogers at his best has never been as good as Hader at his best and Lamet is nothing special. 
 

 

Again, if Hader is elite, Rogers is dang close. Lamet is an upside arm with a history of legit MLB success to add to the pen this year. Rogers is not equal straight-up for Hader, but Rogers/Lamet for Hader may well be a net positive. If Ruiz can give the MLB team anything this year, it could very easily turn into a win.

[Ro Mueller]

Hader’s elite, Rogers is decent, Lamet hasn’t been good in a while and Ruiz is going to commence in AAA, so I’m not going to try to convince myself that this trade makes the Brewers better this season.

However, Ruiz is having a Grisham-type breakout this year and Gasser immediately slots in as one of our top pitching prospects, so it looks like we’re getting better as an organization.

More moves will be made to improve the MLB club, undoubtedly. In Stearns I trust.

[monty57]

2 minutes ago, nate82 said:

He is a better CF than he is at 2B.  

From the articles I read, it sounds like he was a horrible 2B and had to move. Seems like he's doing a lot better at CF. 

Love the improvements he's made in pitch recognition. Do you think we could trade some of our "pitching lab secrets" to San Diego for some of their "Hitting lab secrets?"

[Brock Beauchamp]

17 minutes ago, patrickgpe said:

I have yet to see a National MLB writer or outlet criticize this trade for the brewers, the sentiment is universally that they got a good return and didn't jeopardize their chances for 2022. FWIW. 

Yeah. Once I got over the knee-jerk reaction, this trade doesn't look bad.

Swap out Rogers for Hader and it's a downgrade but not a huge downgrade. Also, Hader's salary comes off the books while Rogers is being paid by the Twins this season. The Brewers have a little more flexibility going into tomorrow's deadline.

The Brewers might be able to get something out of Lament over the next 14 months so maybe that even adds value. Overall, the performance this season could be anything from disastrous to a wash to very good for Milwaukee. A lot rides on how Hader and Rogers finish the season after both looked really bad for a stretch.

So we're left with 2023 Hader for Gasser and Ruiz. I'm not over the moon for that return but it's not nearly as lop-sided as it felt initially.

[mothershipconnection]

My frustration with this trade made me come here to post for the first time in eons.

The fact that I hate it probably means that time will prove it to be a huge win for the Brewers.

 

[SRB]

If you go by Fangraphs Depth Charts rest-of-season projections, we traded Hader (#5) but still have the #3 (Williams) and #6 (Rogers) best relievers in baseball over the rest of the year. ?

[djoctagone]

12 minutes ago, SRB said:

Seems obvious that one of the catchers has to go, as none of them can get sent to the minors and we aren't going to keep three catchers forever.

that's not correct.

[SRB]

1 minute ago, djoctagone said:

that's not correct.

Not really my point, as practically speaking there's no way Narvaez/Caratini get sent down. Severino would be the guy to stash but he's the one who can't be optioned.

[monty57]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah. Once I got over the knee-jerk reaction, this trade doesn't look bad.

Swap out Rogers for Hader and it's a downgrade but not a huge downgrade. Also, Hader's salary comes off the books while Rogers is being paid by the Twins this season. The Brewers have a little more flexibility going into tomorrow's deadline.

The Brewers might be able to get something out of Lament over the next 14 months so maybe that even adds value. Overall, the performance this season could be anything from disastrous to a wash to very good for Milwaukee. A lot rides on how Hader and Rogers finish the season after both looked really bad for a stretch.

So we're left with 2023 Hader for Gasser and Ruiz. I'm not over the moon for that return but it's not nearly as lop-sided as it felt initially.

I think that's a good take on things.

For those wanting a Top 100 guy or two, I think we'd have gotten that if Rogers wasn't included in the deal. But, we're trying to win this year, so it was important to get Rogers in the deal. 

Stearns continues to amaze me. I didn't think that there would be a chance Hader was traded because playoff teams don't trade their closers mid-season. Stearns did it and ended up not really hurting the bullpen, in that at least on paper Rogers and Lamet should provide as much as Hader this year. That's pretty amazing.

The more I read about the young guys we got, the more I like them. They seem like guys who have improved their stock a lot, and neither is that far off from a potential move to Milwaukee. You never know with prospects, but there is reason to hope on them. If they keep up their progression, I think they'll be on some Top 100 lists soon for whatever that's worth.

[tmwiese55]

15 minutes ago, SRB said:

Seems obvious that one of the catchers has to go, as none of them can get sent to the minors and we aren't going to keep three catchers forever.

Tampa Bay needs a catcher and has an insanely deep farm system. I'd either look for an upside reliever or a mid-range prospect in their system (who would still be quite good). Narvaez is a good player, shouldn't give him away for free.

Unless I missed an acquisition I think Hous needs one too.  Just had Maldonado recently so Narv would be a good LH compliment to him 

[rickh150]

37 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

No. That would be a step too far. Woodruff can be traded just as easily this offseason if that's the direction they wanted to go. 

I would be opposed to do this unless we are getting back two top #25 guys. I didn’t think we’d trade Hader now either, but who knows now.

[SomewhereInTime]

1 hour ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Hader's postseason contributions to the Brewers since he arrived in 2017 have been 1 save and 2 losses. That's not saying he's not valuable. But what's he's delivered when it matters most, wouldn't be tough to beat

He has a 1.88 ERA in 14.1 postseason innings.

[Playing Catch]

I love that I've read in different places today, that each of Ruiz, Gasser and Lamet are the "wildcard[s] in this deal".

[Jim French Stepstool]

To those who question how it makes them better right now, I think the mindset is that, if Rogers pitches to his capability, it doesn't make them any WORSE, plus you've added two prospects, one of whom we may see this year, plus Lamet.

Is there any official announcement re the Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer to Nashville rumor? I like all three, but Ruiz being added makes one or two of them being packaged more likely.

In a playoff scenario, are we comfortable with Alex Jackson & Caratini as our catchers if Narvaez gets dealt? Don't think they trust Felicianos' defense yet.

[ny_chez]

It’s surprising that last year the price for a terrible Daniel Norris was a near- top 5 prospect Reese Olson.

This year the price for the best closer over the past five years does not involve a top 5 prospect.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Just now, Jim French Stepstool said:

In a playoff scenario, are we comfortable with Alex Jackson & Caratini as our catchers if Narvaez gets dealt? Don't think they trust Felicianos' defense yet.

At this point, would the Brewers acquiring yet another catcher really be all that surprising?

[Jim French Stepstool]

Just now, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

At this point, would the Brewers acquiring yet another catcher really be all that surprising?

When you put it that way..........?

[ecjimg]

4 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

At this point, would the Brewers acquiring yet another catcher really be all that surprising?

Too bad it wasnt Campusano!

[bensheeps]

4 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

At this point, would the Brewers acquiring yet another catcher really be all that surprising?

So you're saying the Brewers are going to get Contreras to fill the "middle of the order/good against LHP" role?

[Fear The Chorizo]

So this means the Astros won the Gomez trade now, right?

[Lathund]

Rogers in 2022: 4.35 ERA / 2.35 FIP. Career: 3.29 ERA / 2.93 FIP.

Hader in 2022: 4.24 ERA / 3.47 FIP. Career: 2.48 ERA / 2.70 FIP. 

I would expect Hader to be better rest of the season, but honestly not by a ton. They will at most pitch another ~30 innings or so each, and even a 0.70 ERA difference over that many innings is 2-2,5 runs. Which is a simplified way of looking at it of course, but useful as a rough measurement of the size of the downgrade. 

[MrTPlush]

42 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

If Ruiz is headed to Nashville and Frelick, Wiemer and Mitchell are all headed there, something else has to be up…

Not necessarily. These kind of log jams happen often. It is pretty easy for everyone to get plenty of time in the field and batting. It would muddy it up a bit as none of them play outside of the OF. Usually those kind of situations are a little easier if at least someone splits time at 1B or something.

Of course it is quite plausible someone gets traded as it is a position of strength and they are good trade chips. However, that would require a pretty notable trade and I doubt they are 100% sold on that happening.

[MrTPlush]

1 minute ago, Lathund said:

Rogers in 2022: 4.35 ERA / 2.35 FIP. Career: 3.29 ERA / 2.93 FIP.

Hader in 2022: 4.24 ERA / 3.47 FIP. Career: 2.48 ERA / 2.70 FIP. 

I would expect Hader to be better rest of the season, but honestly not by a ton. They will at most pitch another ~30 innings or so each, and even a 0.70 ERA difference over that many innings is 2-2,5 runs. Which is a simplified way of looking at it of course, but useful as a rough measurement of the size of the downgrade. 

The logic is basically that, over a short sample the difference...even if large, isn't crippling...in theory. Now the effects in the postseason is a bit more debatable, but that is a bit of a crapshoot once there. Then they can make moves in the offseason to replace the performance lost with Hader. Will they go grab a Hader? No, but they will also be saving $15mil or so by not having Hader on the team. Might lose talent in the bullpen, but hopefully the gain elsewhere outweighs that. 

[treego14]

Brewers and A’s once again showing the MLB is rigged for the big market teams … we cannot keep our superstars very long.