Josh Hader Traded to the Padres

[adambr2]

Not sure if this was posted but Gasser and Ruiz have slotted in as the Brewers' #8 and #9 prospects respectively according to MLB Pipeline.

[Joseph Zarr]

1 hour ago, damuelle said:

Hader’s elite, Rogers is decent, Lamet hasn’t been good in a while and Ruiz is going to commence in AAA, so I’m not going to try to convince myself that this trade makes the Brewers better this season.

However, Ruiz is having a Grisham-type breakout this year and Gasser immediately slots in as one of our top pitching prospects, so it looks like we’re getting better as an organization.

More moves will be made to improve the MLB club, undoubtedly. In Stearns I trust.

Hey are you that guy who posts in the Minor League forums and writes Minor League reports? I like your thoughts!

[JefferyLeonard]

If this was all the Crew was going to get for Hader, I'd rather they had let him walk after 2023 and got nothing in return. Everyone wants to spin this like Stearns is some god getting what he got, but personally I think he got fleeced. Sure, he got "two" major leaguers back, but they aren't great major leaguers.  I was one who always said, IF/when they traded Hader, the return had to be MASSIVE. This, by no stretch of the imagination is MASSIVE

[Never Outhustled]

I like the Hader trade. I also hope we aren't done. I'm cool with being a seller, as long as we're also a buyer. Trading a closer is always a smart move. They get overvalued.

[Pugger]

20 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Today, with Hader still in the Brewers depth chart listings on FanGraphs, they are at 90.6% playoffs, 81.7% division and 5.4% World Series odds.

Once the depth charts are updated I'll post the new odds with Rogers swapped in for Hader. My guess is that the impact will be negligible.

If the Brewers front office didn't believe they were as good as their division lead suggests (I personally think the Brewers front office believes this team is better than their division lead suggests given the pitching injuries/underperformance they've endured to this point), they probably would have tried for more future value in the return in favor of present value or near-present value in guys like Rogers, Lamet or Ruiz.

If the trade impact is negligible then why do it if you believe the team is better than the division lead suggests?  I would have thought Stearns would want to get a bigger impact for a pitcher of Hader's caliber than this.  I just hope they aren't done dealing... 

[Never Outhustled]

41 minutes ago, Pugger said:

Then who is our backup to Caratini should we make the postseason?

Who cares? With the days off in the postseason you don't give starts to the back up catcher, and I think Caratini will prove to be our best catcher.

 

It's also a sneaky way to get Feliciano big league experience without burning service time.

[treego14]

When are we trading Corbin Burnes?

We will not be able to afford him, either.  :'(

[Joseph Zarr]

As always, with all trades; with all draftpicks; and with all FA signings, I'm going to wait and see how this shakes out - this year and into the future. There's just too many unknowns with every aspect of this trade. As others have pointed out, parts of this trade might be used in trades over the next 24 hrs. OR parts of this trade might be enabling parts of trades in the next 24 hrs. I'll always trust the personnel department has a more nuanced approach and understanding of why they're doing what they're doing. I'll be excited, either way, to see new prospects in the system - to watch them and share my thoughts. 

I'll also miss Josh Hader the pitcher. He's been a fantastic Brewer - an all time great. And, I wish him all the best success in the West.

[sveumrules]

Just now, Pugger said:

If the trade impact is negligible then why do it if you believe the team is better than the division lead suggests?  I would have thought Stearns would want to get a bigger impact for a pitcher of Hader's caliber than this.  I just hope they aren't done dealing... 

Because they are exchanging what is likely a negligible decrease in current playoff odds for a drastic increase in expected future value.

Also the salary freed up by exchanging Hader for an essentially free Rogers (Twins are paying most of his salary this year) gives them more flexibility to still improve at the deadline and again in the offseason.

[djoctagone]

interesting to note: the padres had three guys on their 26-man roster who are now gone. they play a home game tonight. and they play a home doubleheader tomorrow. definitely gonna be a lot of scrambling booking flights for replacements.

it's conceivable that the brewers will be able to activate dinelson lamet and taylor rogers before the start of tomorrow's game in pittsburgh.

[Never Outhustled]

9 minutes ago, JefferyLeonard said:

If this was all the Crew was going to get for Hader, I'd rather they had let him walk after 2023 and got nothing in return. Everyone wants to spin this like Stearns is some god getting what he got, but personally I think he got fleeced. Sure, he got "two" major leaguers back, but they aren't great major leaguers.  I was one who always said, IF/when they traded Hader, the return had to be MASSIVE. This, by no stretch of the imagination is MASSIVE

Hader was 0 WAR this year. You don't get a haul for a reliever. That said, the 2 prospects we acquired are really exciting. We finally traded for a high OBA hitter!

[Team Canada]

4 minutes ago, treego14 said:

When are we trading Corbin Burnes?

We will not be able to afford him, either.  :'(

Take it to a different thread.

[HarveysWBs]

5 minutes ago, JefferyLeonard said:

If this was all the Crew was going to get for Hader, I'd rather they had let him walk after 2023 and got nothing in return. Everyone wants to spin this like Stearns is some god getting what he got, but personally I think he got fleeced. Sure, he got "two" major leaguers back, but they aren't great major leaguers.  I was one who always said, IF/when they traded Hader, the return had to be MASSIVE. This, by no stretch of the imagination is MASSIVE

I'm wary of extreme, dualistic thinking about these things.  Professional GMs rarely get taken to the cleaners on deals, and there are a whole range of possibilities between "Stearns is some god" and "he got fleeced."

I assume Stearns is acutely aware of exactly what Hader's market value is at the moment, what it is likely to be this winter, and made a call on that basis.  Going off of his comments (posted earlier in the thread and on Brewers media), this was a decision based on liking Gasser and Ruiz more than most rankings did (and, as a reminder to any who need it, such "rankings" are fairly amateurish exercises--but awfully fun for the fans and for the clicks), and also with an eye towards both immediate and long-term competitiveness.

I think you can fairly disagree with the strategy, which Stearns has often referred to as an attempt to increase the number of "bites at the apple," but that is an argument about tactics.  I think the fairest criticism one could make is that Stearns knows exactly what he is doing, but his strategy is a faulty one.  I think a fact-based discussion about an all-in approach (yielding boom and bust cycles) vs. a consistently good approach (yielding teams that never do multi-year rebuilds and are always in the mix but never the "buzzy" team) would be the way to go with this.

[JefferyLeonard]

I mean, shouldn't this paragraph say it all in describing just how valuable Hader should have been?? If any reliever should have gotten a massive haul, it was him. This is from the Athletic:

 

It’s almost unprecedented for any team to trade for a bullpen monster like Josh Hader. Then again, maybe we’ve never seen a bullpen monster like Josh Hader in any of our lifetimes.

 

He’s the most unhittable closer in history. He’s allowed the least contact of any closer in history. He’s had to work from the stretch less often than any closer in history. Looking for a definition of late-inning dominance? That about covers it.

[Playing Catch]

The busy-est and buzzi-est team of recent vintage may be the Padres. Who, "got fleeced," by Stearns pretty recently.

Watching the Red Sox series reminded me of the Tyler Thornburg trade.

[markedman5]

 

[edfunderburk]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Sure. But he cost us big in two elimination games. Especially 2019. 

Fact … he did not pitch well enough in elimination games … no one can argue with that fact

[Lathund]

Not sure if this has been posted, but this was an interview with Gasser on Fangraphs a couple of weeks ago. He certainly sounds like someone who would buy into the kind of pitching development the Brewers do. Seems to know a lot about pitch design etc, and understands his game well. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/padres-pitching-prospect-robert-gasser-doesnt-believe-in-being-bland/

[craigharmann]

3 hours ago, MoreTrife said:

Stearns plays 3D chess.

Seems like it. 

[dlk9s]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

They traded Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs for Gleyber Torres....so yeah they would

That was a much different situation. The Yankees weren't in contention and Chapman was a free agent at the end of the season. They knew they could trade him, get some prospects, and then re-sign him, which they did for 5 years/$86 million.

[craigharmann]

1 hour ago, Pugger said:

Perhaps we aren't as good as our division lead suggests?

Then….wouldn’t you want to…..improve? 

[JefferyLeonard]

I wouldn't have done it for any less than Hassell, Campusano and Rogers. That to me is the proper return for a guy as dominant as Josh has been

[markedman5]

 

[edfunderburk]

3 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

If Ruiz is headed to Nashville and Frelick, Wiemer and Mitchell are all headed there, something else has to be up…

I’m okay with moving Wiemer & Small

I hope they keep Turang, Frelick, & Mitchell

[Joseph Zarr]

7 minutes ago, Lathund said:

Not sure if this has been posted, but this was an interview with Gasser on Fangraphs a couple of weeks ago. He certainly sounds like someone who would buy into the kind of pitching development the Brewers do. Seems to know a lot about pitch design etc, and understands his game well. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/padres-pitching-prospect-robert-gasser-doesnt-believe-in-being-bland/

That's a fantastic interview. Love his understanding and nuance and evolving approach. Man, I'm excited to watch him in Biloxi and hope he can share his grip learnings from this year to the greater staff. Fun stuff!