Grade the Deadline

[Ulice Payne]

Preller was like a guy putting a trip to Disney on the credit card.

Stearns was like a guy making his 401K contributions, flossing, and getting to bed on time.

Which approach was better?  We shall see. 

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

 

Hosmer posted a positive  season WAR one time in San Diego and is negative again this year, 

 

This is just factually incorrect. I agree Hosmer isn't an answer to anything though, because our real only weakness on offense is hitting lefties which he can't do.

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

 

[Guest]

I give the deadline a B grade. Bad timing on the Harder trade but it's hard to argue we didn't get more talent. Other trades are ok, not a ton gained or lost.

Realistically I see our team about as good as last week, but with a better farm system.

[patrickgpe]

i know this is a necessary thread, but its impossible. I give them a C. like we shall see. 

[patrickgpe]

 

3 hours ago, Ulice Payne said:

Preller was like a guy putting a trip to Disney on the credit card.

Stearns was like a guy making his 401K contributions, flossing, and getting to bed on time.

Which approach was better?  We shall see. 

honestly, would it make sense to move a jackson chourio, Weimer, or Frelik to mortgage the future to try to still go head ot head with the dodgers and padres. Brewers will always play the long game. 

[pitchleague]

I think that I would grade the deadline for the Brewers to be a solid B-

I think Bush will be fine.  I think Rogers and Lamet will be fine.  And the prospects will be fine.

Rosenthal, though, seems to be a wild card, to me.  He could be awesome to have around.  And he could be a complete nothing-burger.  Time will tell.

 

The real reason I graded them a B-, though, is because I am very fearful that trading Hader away has really hurt the clubhouse chemistry and may help out in a precipitous fall in the standings and completely out of the playoffs.  I'm thinking "2021 Padres" kind of fall.  It seems like the clubhouse, as a whole, was not too happy with the trade of their friend.  Clubhouse chemistry is sometimes just as important--if not more important--than the skills they have out on the diamond.  

I just wouldn't be surprised if they win all of 8 games in August and maybe 10 in September.

I hope that I am wrong.

[dlk9s]

1 minute ago, pitchleague said:

The real reason I graded them a B-, though, is because I am very fearful that trading Hader away has really hurt the clubhouse chemistry and may help out in a precipitous fall in the standings and completely out of the playoffs.  I'm thinking "2021 Padres" kind of fall.  It seems like the clubhouse, as a whole, was not too happy with the trade of their friend.  Clubhouse chemistry is sometimes just as important--if not more important--than the skills they have out on the diamond.  

I don't think it's going to be THAT bad, but it does seem like losing Hader has been a big hit to morale. Losing last night didn't help, either. I don't think it will be a problem long-term - win a couple games and they'll feel ok, especially if Rogers comes in and does a good job from the jump.

[liveforoctober]

34 minutes ago, timpep said:

This is just factually incorrect. I agree Hosmer isn't an answer to anything though, because our real only weakness on offense is hitting lefties which he can't do.

Yeah, this was my fault. I was looking at his dWAR, not his overall WAR. His dWAR has been negative in 4 out of 5 seasons. I'll walk this one back.

[Playing Catch]

After a good night's sleep, I've recovered from the disappointment of yesterday. In part because I'm sure Stearns tried to get a bat, and that the "needle-moving" bats for this Brewers team (Contreras/Reynolds/Mullins/Laureano) were too expensive. None of those players were dealt. Losing Kelly and Peters simply isn't a big deal, and I'm one of the biggest prospect-nerds on the site. The Brewers are, collectively, a better team now, and in the future. In a better position financially, as well. For that reason alone, it was a successful deadline.

But I am worried about the team morale. Players and former players say it all the time. They like it when they feel backed/supported by the Front Office. But most of the time, their context for what makes the team better is as flawed as it is for us fans. They'll get over it. This is why the Yeliches/Cutches/Willys/Woodys on the club are important. Sometimes the downs of a season aren't necessarily on the field.

[dlk9s]

Deadline is an A+ now:

 

 

[Jopal78]

As for not adding a bat, the Brewers did move Wiemer, Frelick and Mitchell to AAA along with Ruiz. Seems to me, over the next couple of weeks they will see if any member of that quartet gets hot and likely 1 if not 2 of them will be in Milwaukee for the stretch run in September

[Pugger]

16 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

C-

I was hoping we would unload Hiura so I don’t have to endure another year of speculation that he is part of our future

Who would want Hiura?

[Pugger]

2 hours ago, patrickgpe said:

honest

honestly, would it make sense to move a jackson chourio, Weimer, or Frelik to mortgage the future to try to still go head ot head with the dodgers and padres. Brewers will always play the long game. 

This team is never going to mortgage its future fore a one season run for a WS.  It is obvious they prefer to try to get as many bites as possible instead.  It is frustrating for long time fans still waiting for 40 years...

[brooks_quichenick]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

But I am worried about the team morale. Players and former players say it all the time. They like it when they feel backed/supported by the Front Office. But most of the time, their context for what makes the team better is as flawed as it is for us fans. They'll get over it. This is why the Yeliches/Cutches/Willys/Woodys on the club are important. Sometimes the downs of a season aren't necessarily on the field.

Clubhouse morale post-deadline is a big concern of mine too, which is why I was encouraged to read this comment by Willy last night, and why he (and the others you mentioned) are so important in that regard:

"I don't really pay attention to that, but I'll say that I take it like a compliment," Adames said of the Brewers not bringing in any new players to the offense via trade. "I feel like they trust the guys that are out here and we do, too. We're trusting ourselves and we have a pretty good team, a pretty good lineup and we can do a lot of damage. We just have to be more focused and try to do our job and try to do our best, and we can be great." 

[brewerfan82]

I think they took the responsible route. The roster is full of guys hovering around or above 100 wRC+. Only Davis (88), Taylor (92), Severino (92), and Narvaez (94) are below 100. That doesn't leave any glaring holes to improve on cheaply. The payroll is likely on the verge of being maxed out and management probably didn't want to mortgage the future for an "upgrade" anywhere that any of our current guys could outproduce over a short period of time in the playoffs anyways.

We've been hovering around the 5% mark for WS Victory odds, 5th highest in the NL, and are close to a shoe-in for the playoffs. Let's say they went all in at the trade deadline and traded for Soto, Reynolds and Bell, What would that increase their WS Victory odds to? 10%? The Dodgers have the highest odds at 15.7%. So even if you trade away the farm, you probably will still not win the WS somewhere between 5 out of 6 to 9 out of 10 times.

The biggest factor in winning the World Series is getting into the playoffs, not necessarily being the best team, and having affordable, controllable talent come through the minors is the only way we can sustain this run of playoff appearances we've been on.

We may not be the best team in contention and we may go into the playoffs as an underdog, but we are a good team and we're in a solid position to make the playoffs for the 5th year in a row. So let's ride this roster as far as it can go and see where it takes us! ?

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

I think they took the responsible route. The roster is full of guys hovering around or above 100 wRC+.

I think this is the correct take. To make a difference on offense they needed someone who was a legit star, or at least a star vs lefties. The thing that Stearns has done the best since being here is raising the talent floor. No more captain Kirk or Jett Bandy's for this team. It's really hard to make a big improvement when you don't have anyone 'bad' on the team.

 

[MrTPlush]

59 minutes ago, Pugger said:

This team is never going to mortgage its future fore a one season run for a WS.  It is obvious they prefer to try to get as many bites as possible instead.  It is frustrating for long time fans still waiting for 40 years...

Call it mortgaging the future, but they did it twice (2008 and 2011) and all that talent was mostly a trash heap. Anyone in the Yelich trade do anything yet? Michael Brantley was about the only thing that really ever did anything and even he took seven years to actually become something above average. 

 

[ToolShed55]

I wanted Reynolds, but the fact that he wasn't traded to the Crew, OR a team with significantly more money and/or prospects, suggests to me that the VALUE wasn't there. Once Bell went in the megadeal, the thought of trading for trading's sake is one I'm glad Stearns avoided.

How many megadeals have the Padres been involved in now? Machado, Soto, Darvish, etc. How many WS wins are they rocking? Let's see how this plays out, shall we?

[Thurston Fluff]

11 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

The biggest factor in winning the World Series is getting into the playoffs, not necessarily being the best team, and having affordable, controllable talent come through the minors is the only way we can sustain this run of playoff appearances we've been on.

 

This.^^^ We've tried the all in route and got one playoff appearance and lost to an inferior team in the playoffs. That happens. All. The. Time. The team adopted a more bites at the apple approach years ago and I applaud them sticking to it. The worst thing a team can do is bounce from one organizational strategy to another in the heat of the moment. If you don't trust your plan you should not have implemented it and you probably shouldn't have been given the job.

As for grading the moves, incomplete. It's hard to tell if depth trumps top end talent minus depth. Nobody doubts we are deeper in the pen. But we also have elite talent in the pen. We still have an elite elite reliever in Williams. It isn't like Hader was lights out in the post season to begin with. I know small sample. But that's the point. The post season is all small samples. Thus the strategy of getting there more often.

The other reason for the incomplete grade is given the odds of going all in is still well below 50% we could still be closer to a World Series title now than we were before the trades. I can see a scenario where we went all in, dialed 1-900-getabigbat this season, and still have lost in the playoffs. In fact that would be the most probable outcome. That would mean less chance to win in the future as well. If a few of these new additions help win a World Series two years from now while still giving us a legit chance this year then we very well could be closer to winning it all than we were two days ago. Even if it isn't this year.

[Thurston Fluff]

25 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Call it mortgaging the future, but they did it twice (2008 and 2011) and all that talent was mostly a trash heap. Anyone in the Yelich trade do anything yet? Michael Brantley was about the only thing that really ever did anything and even he took seven years to actually become something above average. 

 

How many World Series titles did those two mortgaging the future moves get us? I know it got the Royals two appearances and one title but the Brewers? Not so much.

[BallFour]

28 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Call it mortgaging the future, but they did it twice (2008 and 2011) and all that talent was mostly a trash heap. Anyone in the Yelich trade do anything yet? Michael Brantley was about the only thing that really ever did anything and even he took seven years to actually become something above average. 

 

Jake Odorizzi and Lorenzo Cain had pretty good careers to a lesser extent so did Escobar

[Patrick425]

19 hours ago, sveumrules said:

A+. Upgraded bullpen without trading our #1 best hitter Keston Hiura.

Not sure how the "multi quote" works.  Wanted to respond to this and the post wondering if it was sarcastic.

Anyways, not sure why anyone would think the thought about Hiura was sarcastic.  .805 OPS when he was sent down and hit righties far better than anyone on the roster. Has always fared better against righties.  1.069 vs righties this year.  I didn't understand why he was sent down.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

9 minutes ago, Patrick425 said:

Not sure how the "multi quote" works.  Wanted to respond to this and the post wondering if it was sarcastic.

Anyways, not sure why anyone would think the thought about Hiura was sarcastic.  .805 OPS when he was sent down and hit righties far better than anyone on the roster. Has always fared better against righties.  1.069 vs righties this year.  I didn't understand why he was sent down.

Likely his 40%+ K rate is the culprit. 

[torts]

A+ if only for entertainment value on this forum.

its like, once hader became the closer, everyone forgot that closers are just a position of timing.  

we went from having one option to close to multiple, that all have experience and success at different points of time.

Jake McGee saved 31 games last year

Taylor Rogers saved 30 games in 2019 and has 28 this year

Rosenthal has 130+ saves over his career (if he comes back)

and internally, we have

Williams with 15 saves over the last 2 seasons

Boxberger saved 41 in 2015 and 32 in 2018