DO NOT GIVE UP ON THE 2022 SEASON!!!

[KeithStone53151]

The Brewers sit currently 1.5 back of the Cardinals/Phillies and 2 back of the Padres. Of those 4 teams, 1 won't get in to the playoffs. There is certainly plenty of reason to think the Brewers will improve down the stretch. Some teams got a shot in the arm with big deadline moves, the Brewers did not. That type of morale impact is temporary, it certainly seemed like trading Hader lowered morale and cost us some games...it's unlikely that lasts much longer. We have reinforcements coming on the pitching front in Houser, Cousins, maybe Topa...and I'm still hopeful that Frelick forces his way into the CF role for the stretch run. We have the pitching that if the bats can heat up a bit at the right time...we can still be very dangerous down the stretch and into the playoffs. On paper, this team loses every time to the Dodgers and Mets. But baseball isn't played on paper. If we can get into the playoffs, it's certainly feasible that the players play a bit above their heads and have a few things go their way.

[adambr2]

I mean I don't like their chances much at this point, but not much you can do anymore other than play out the fiddle and see what happens. 

Nothing about Houser and Topa makes me think that our reinforcements are going to move the needle much. Maybe Cousins I guess.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Early returns on Matt Bush are positive, and I'm honestly very interested in seeing what Rosenthal has left in the tank. Hopefully Trevor Rogers' performance Sunday was a hiccup and he'll be an asset as well. If the starters can get through 5 innings, the bullpen could theoretically shut things down from there. 

The offense certainly needs a kick in the pants, though. Maybe its time to consider giving Frelick or Ruiz some run in CF? 

[Jopal78]

Being 1.5 games back with 4 games remaining against the Cardinals isn't great, With 7 of the Brewers next ten games being against the Dodgers, while the Cardinals next 10 games are all against teams on pace lose 90 games certainly suggests they could be finished before the calendar hits Labor Day. 

However, like  adambr2 said, they have no other choice but to see what happens in the next two weeks. Sometimes teams get lucky. 

[KeithStone53151]

Without looking, I would guess playoff odds are in the low 50s right now...and lower than the other 3 teams i identified. They could stoop lower if we only get 2 or 3 from the Dodgers, but there are plenty of "easier" games on the schedule. I also think a guy like Frelick could potentially spark the team a bit if he hits the ground running. Ruiz as well if he comes up in Sept to at least be a SB/runner late in games.

Cousins/Houser take innings from our current worse 2 players on the roster...right now probably Strzelski and Alexander. Rosenthal if he's effective adds to the pen as well. Having more guys available in late innings allows more flexibility so we don't have to force Rogers to pitch back to back days of a day/night set. It's all cumulative even at this point.

As others have noted, nothing to do except play the games out and hope. The Brewers obviously had a bit of a morale lull that first week after the break and gave away 5 of 6 winnable games. Since then, they have seemingly reset and took 3 of 5 against contenders. I'm hoping we can get 4 from the Dodgers over these 7, but 3 would be ok so long as we can clean up against the other teams.

[StearnsFTW]

Thread title doesn't make sense, but I agree with the thought.

 

[Outlander]

53 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Thread title doesn't make sense, but I agree with the thought.

 

Yeah, I assumed the poster was going to point out they are only 1.5 back but has given up on the team and they won't make the playoffs.

[shanedog19]

It is becoming increasingly frustrating to me that they don’t call Frelick up to play CF. That position is a massive black hole and Frelick looks like the real deal. Calling him up would give me a renewed optimism that I don’t have in the team since the Hader trade:

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

 On paper, this team loses every time to the Dodgers and Mets. But baseball isn't played on paper. 

This. Baseball is more random than any other sport w/regard to outcomes & success in a given day, week, etc. Yet people still need to be reminded of that. The team hasn't played well for an extended period for a LONG time, and it has to change. That's job 1 right now, more important than who they're chasing, who's coming up on the sked, etc. The 3 games in St Louis are pretty much what their games are going to have to look like from here on (with the exception of the blowup in the eighth inning Sunday). A little more of a "less is more" approach would help. Renfroe has shown that, and it's gotten him pitches to pull. Adames even shows that approach at times, but it's way too intermittent. And not to make excuses, but they could use a little luck, which is always part of the equation if you have a successful season. There were maybe 10 balls hit very hard this weekend that went for outs.

I have no idea if we'll see him, but they have to be at least thinking about Frelick. As for the pitchers, I agree Cousins could make an impact if he can consistently work ahead in the count. Saw Topa throw last night & thought he looked very ordinary. Mechanics look OK, everything comes out of the same slot but just don't see much movement or ability to miss bats. Regarding Houser, Ashby might've turned a corner Sunday; if that's the case Houser could return as a 2-3 inning guy out of the pen which could be very useful.

I wasn't a fan of the Rosenthal deal but it's sounding likely we'll see him at some point so that'll be interesting. 

[KeithStone53151]

6 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I have no idea if we'll see him, but they have to be at least thinking about Frelick.

Frelick isn't on the 40, but we could punt Kelley or Davis and they would not be missed. If Davis were to even touch a bat in October, that's a big problem. His defense/running could be replaced by Frelick at minimum...and Frelick should provide a lot more with the bat as well as being left handed to platoon Taylor.

[Hopper]

I don't understand the thread title.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Right, if they decide to go with Sal the 40-man thing is really no problem.

I actually appreciate Davis. Looking at his entire career, what he's given us is about what we should expect plus probably a little more. But yeah, I think it's just about time. 

[Team Canada]

@KeithStone53151 can you edit it to make sense?

It seems like it was just a typo and should be "It is not too early to give up on this season," but the optimism of you post would imply that what you're really saying is "It is too early to give up on this season."

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Without looking, I would guess playoff odds are in the low 50s right now...and lower than the other 3 teams i identified. They could stoop lower if we only get 2 or 3 from the Dodgers, but there are plenty of "easier" games on the schedule. I also think a guy like Frelick could potentially spark the team a bit if he hits the ground running. Ruiz as well if he comes up in Sept to at least be a SB/runner late in games.

Cousins/Houser take innings from our current worse 2 players on the roster...right now probably Strzelski and Alexander. Rosenthal if he's effective adds to the pen as well. Having more guys available in late innings allows more flexibility so we don't have to force Rogers to pitch back to back days of a day/night set. It's all cumulative even at this point.

As others have noted, nothing to do except play the games out and hope. The Brewers obviously had a bit of a morale lull that first week after the break and gave away 5 of 6 winnable games. Since then, they have seemingly reset and took 3 of 5 against contenders. I'm hoping we can get 4 from the Dodgers over these 7, but 3 would be ok so long as we can clean up against the other teams.

The '22 Brewers are only afloat because of the poor quality of their Division. They'd be  4th in the NL East, 3rd in the NL West, and 3rd in the AL West.

The Brewers are  9th in runs scored and 8th in runs allowed.  Their record against non-losing teams in the NL is 18-25. Now given they're 1.5 games behind St. Louis, and the Cardinals have the easier schedule the rest of the way tells you the Brewers are pretty much cooked. Maybe Goldschmidt and Wainwright get hurt, or Yelich and Adames get white hot, but absent those type of events I'd put the Brewers post season chances this year at slim to none. 

[KeithStone53151]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

The '22 Brewers are only afloat because of the poor quality of their Division. They'd be  4th in the NL East, 3rd in the NL West, and 3rd in the AL West.

The Brewers are  9th in runs scored and 8th in runs allowed.  Their record against non-losing teams in the NL is 18-25. Now given they're 1.5 games behind St. Louis, and the Cardinals have the easier schedule the rest of the way tells you the Brewers are pretty much cooked. Maybe Goldschmidt and Wainwright get hurt, or Yelich and Adames get white hot, but absent those type of events I'd put the Brewers post season chances this year at slim to none. 

Brewers888, is that you?

[Austin Tatious]

I love the pitching staff, especially if CC can tweak his reliever usage a tad.  Be less pedantic and look at the situation.  Maybe its Rogers in the 7th and Bush in the 8th based on who is coming up.  But, you have to love the pitching.

It's sad to have this type of staff, where you have some front line starters for the playoffs, and still not be optimistic about this year's Brewers.  The offense can show average stats in runs and so on, but it's a dysfunctional mis-match of talent.  Which means I will be wrong and we will go all the way.

With some rising prospects for the lineup potentially coming up in the next 2-3 years, with some key starters expiring, and a massive albatross of a contract weighing finances down, it will take extraordinary creativity and planning in the off-season to sort through this.  I love Stearns and I believe he is a smart guy who can be a big thinker.  I have not been thrilled with recent events or even the lineup he drew up this season, but I have hopes that he will get all these moving pieces sorted out.

[rickh150]

Really, if we lose the NL Central, does it really hurt us that much? The #3 spot doesn’t give us a bye anyways. Of course a little considering that we still would not have a playoff spot.  But playoff spot #6 and #3 are not much different. I actually do not think playing in Milwaukee helps us with the Cards. I’d rather play in St. Louis with this club for two or three games. The pressure would be off, and our pitchers would have a pitchers park, which negates the big bats a bit.  I am watching the Phils and Padres closer now.

[NBBrewFan]

This is kinda silly.  Of course they still have a chance.  They are only 1.5 games back of another flawed team.  The problem isn't enough support from the Brewers Fans, it's that schedule and team makeup don't favor this team.  Both the Cardinals and Phillies have easier schedules moving forward.  The Brewers are worse than any team in the NL with a playoff spot in run differential which at this point in the season is somewhat indicative of their overall talent (#7 in the NL is about right). That's kind of amazing considering all the games they've played against the dregs of the NL central.  They still have a chance, but they can't keep having a 10-game window that's a losing record.  They need to start winning more than they lose for more than 8 days. And no surprise they haven't outside of their best start ever and that they are 3+ months of performing as a below average team.

[Jopal78]

13 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Brewers888, is that you?

Nope, it's just reality. I acknowledge there's a reason they play the games, anything can happen.  However, you can potentially get $320 on a winning $100 bet in Vegas right now on the Brewers making the post season. 

[KeithStone53151]

12 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Nope, it's just reality. I acknowledge there's a reason they play the games, anything can happen.  However, you can potentially get $320 on a winning $100 bet in Vegas right now on the Brewers making the post season. 

Where are you seeing this? I just went to fanduel and they have the Brewers -140 to make the playoffs...

[Pugger]

But even if we get into the playoffs I don't see us doing much.  Pitching isn't the issue.  This group has a hell of time scoring without hitting HRs.  If we get behind by more than a couple of runs I don't have a lot of faith we can come back.  ?  

 

 

 

 

  

[Brewin]

Jopal78 - The Brewers have been negative money to make the postseason all year. I'm not sure where your seeing them at +320, but I have a really hard time believing that is accurate

[Brewin]

In fact I just looked and they are -185 on Draftkings today

[KeithStone53151]

21 minutes ago, Pugger said:

But even if we get into the playoffs I don't see us doing much.  Pitching isn't the issue.  This group has a hell of time scoring without hitting HRs.  If we get behind by more than a couple of runs I don't have a lot of faith we can come back.  ?  

 

 

 

 

  

The path to winning in the postseason, is using maybe our top 10 pitchers. Burnes, Woodruff, Lauer, Houser, Peralta, Ashby, Williams, Rogers, Bush. Those are the guy that'll will pitch the most. We might see Gott, Milner, Cousins, maybe Rosenthal pitch some...but aside from Rosenthal they'll be used sparingly. You won't see Gustave or McGee or whoever else going in and giving up 3 runs in the 7th. More likely is Burnes pitches 6-7, Ashby pitches to the 9th, Williams closes. Game 2, Woodruff pitches 5-7, Peralta pitches 2, Milner gets a lefty out, Rogers pitches the 9th. That type of path is how this team is structured to win in the postseason. The focus will be scratching out a few runs and limiting to 2 or less, that's the path to victory for this team in the postseason as constructed.

[Axman59]

"It is not too early to give up on this season"

I guess we should give up now, then.

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