Hader VERY BAD for Padres

[jerichoholicninja]

I doubt Josh would want to come back to Milwaukee if he's DFA'd. It didn't seem like he had a great relationship with the organization. Also, whatever we would offer him the Dodgers or Yankees would just throw a couple more million on top of it anyway.

[liveforoctober]

32 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

I doubt Josh would want to come back to Milwaukee if he's DFA'd. It didn't seem like he had a great relationship with the organization. Also, whatever we would offer him the Dodgers or Yankees would just throw a couple more million on top of it anyway.

Where have you seen or heard he had a bad relationship with Milwaukee?

[nate82]

In arbitration for relievers the biggest stat that is looked at are saves.  Everything else doesn’t really matter.  ERA is used but it is not a big determining factor in arbitration for relievers.

It goes saves —> strikeouts —> ERA.  With that being considered even if Hader sucks for the rest of the year he will still be getting $15-18m.  If he recovers and is dominant in September a $20m arbitration figure is still possible.  

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, nate82 said:

In arbitration for relievers the biggest stat that is looked at are saves.  Everything else doesn’t really matter.  ERA is used but it is not a big determining factor in arbitration for relievers.

It goes saves —> strikeouts —> ERA.  With that being considered even if Hader sucks for the rest of the year he will still be getting $15-18m.  If he recovers and is dominant in September a $20m arbitration figure is still possible.  

This is why he is setting himself up to be non-tendered. No way the Padres are going to pay that much if Hader continues on this track. We should be counting our blessings that we traded Hader when we did and managed to get two quality prospects in return, in addition to a nice late-inning reliever in Rogers. 

[nate82]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

This is why he is setting himself up to be non-tendered. No way the Padres are going to pay that much if Hader continues on this track. 

I highly doubt the Padres will non-tender Hader.  If anything they will trade him to someone like the Red Sox who need all kind of pitchers.  The Padres are not going to just release Hader.  It makes no logical sense for them to do that.

[jerichoholicninja]

19 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

Where have you seen or heard he had a bad relationship with Milwaukee?

The whole my agent and I decided "I'm only going to pitch 1 inning and it will be the 9th inning" thing. I don't know if it's a bad relationship but it just feels like one where both sides are content to move on from each other.

[torts]

2 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

Josh seems to have control issues. His bad Jul/Aug he is walking a batter per inning.  He isn't locating nearly as well and maybe even taking something off to make sure he can hit the strike zone and those balls are getting hit harder than in the past as his soft% is low compared to his previous periods of elite pitching. When he can start locating his pitches better I think he will begin to have better success, but as long as he's struggling to find the strike zones hitters are going to lay off pitches or make him pay when they know he has to throw a strike.

he also went from a couple pretty good catchers who he's known in Narv-dawg and Caratini to Austin Nola and Jorge Alfaro?  the catchers might be just as confused as the batters?

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I highly doubt the Padres will non-tender Hader.  If anything they will trade him to someone like the Red Sox who need all kind of pitchers.  The Padres are not going to just release Hader.  It makes no logical sense for them to do that.

What team wants to guarantee $20 million to a reliever who has been as historically bad as Hader has been since the beginning of summer, and especially since the deadline? No one is going to trade for that when they can just force the issue on the Padres, who aren't going to want shoulder that cost either. 

[nate82]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

What team wants to guarantee $20 million to a reliever who has been as historically bad as Hader has been since the beginning of summer, and especially since the deadline? No one is going to trade for that when they can just force the issue on the Padres, who aren't going to want shoulder that cost either. 

Plenty of teams would take that bet on a 1-year deal.  Hader only gets to $20m if he has a dominant September.  Meaning he lowers his ERA and he gets more saves.

If he continues on his current path it would be $15-18m.  At $18m for one year there are plenty of teams who would be interested in Hader.  

[tmwiese55]

46 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

The whole my agent and I decided "I'm only going to pitch 1 inning and it will be the 9th inning" thing. I don't know if it's a bad relationship but it just feels like one where both sides are content to move on from each other.

And they had a long arbitration battle and there was a decision on his years as well they fought over.  I definitely got the same vibe but both sides were professional to avoid drama/leaks.      And just in general, I'm guessing Hader wanted to lock in a legit big contract recently and MKE didn't, forcing Hader to play on year to year contracts that could come back to bite him if injured or if what is happening right now were to happen. 

What SD does will be interesting. If they just let him go after the year I'd be surprised if LAD doesn't sign him. They'd throw 10 mil at him and hope he figures it out when no one else might be willing since money means nothing to them.   SD should probably look to trade just to avoid that happening. 

[NBBrewFan]

2 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

What SD does will be interesting. If they just let him go after the year I'd be surprised if LAD doesn't sign him. They'd throw 10 mil at him and hope he figures it out when no one else might be willing since money means nothing to them.   SD should probably look to trade just to avoid that happening. 

Well the Dodgers do have a good track record of getting return from Brewers RP Castoffs.

[BruisedCrew]

17 hours ago, Axman59 said:

We have no way of knowing if Hader would have pitched this poorly he had stayed in Milwaukee. It's very possible the trade messed with his head. Relief pitching relies a lot on the mental aspect, rather than just physical.

You have to factor in that this was already an especially stressful time in his personal life. It’s possible that adding to that stress by forcing him to move and deal with the pressure of performing for a new team affected him.

 

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

In arbitration for relievers the biggest stat that is looked at are saves.  Everything else doesn’t really matter.  ERA is used but it is not a big determining factor in arbitration for relievers.

It goes saves —> strikeouts —> ERA.  With that being considered even if Hader sucks for the rest of the year he will still be getting $15-18m.  If he recovers and is dominant in September a $20m arbitration figure is still possible.  

I'd be surprised if he got that much. I'm not sure he'll get more than 2-3 years right now.

[Robocaller]

29 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

Well the Dodgers do have a good track record of getting return from Brewers RP Castoffs.

Bickford's been crap this year.

[edfunderburk]

Another article detailing Hader’s sudden collapse

https://www.thecoldwire.com/mlb-insider-wonders-if-josh-hader-has-reached-rock-bottom/

[brewcrewdue80]

17 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

And they had a long arbitration battle and there was a decision on his years as well they fought over.  I definitely got the same vibe but both sides were professional to avoid drama/leaks.      And just in general, I'm guessing Hader wanted to lock in a legit big contract recently and MKE didn't, forcing Hader to play on year to year contracts that could come back to bite him if injured or if what is happening right now were to happen. 

What SD does will be interesting. If they just let him go after the year I'd be surprised if LAD doesn't sign him. They'd throw 10 mil at him and hope he figures it out when no one else might be willing since money means nothing to them.   SD should probably look to trade just to avoid that happening. 

We threw 10mil didn't we at Gagne?  Hader will still command more. Rosenthal got a prorated 4.5m contract.  

Hader can just sign a 1yr deal and skip Arb. Pay him what he made for this season or even bump it 1-2.5M more.

All it would take is a solid couple ST innings for a team like Yankees to make a trade for Hader.  Just because of that is why he won't be non-tendered.

[monty57]

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

We threw 10mil didn't we at Gagne?  Hader will still command more. Rosenthal got a prorated 4.5m contract.  

Hader can just sign a 1yr deal and skip Arb. Pay him what he made for this season or even bump it 1-2.5M more.

All it would take is a solid couple ST innings for a team like Yankees to make a trade for Hader.  Just because of that is why he won't be non-tendered.

And the Gagne and Rosenthal deals were both complete wastes of money. At least, Gagne was a waste and Rosenthal is looking that way as there's still a chance the Brewers get something out of him. How are those good examples? Someone has wasted money before, so it makes sense for someone to waste money in the future?

Hader can't "just sign a deal and skip arby." The Padres have to first offer him arby, and then negotiate with him. If he is offered arby and believes that he will get a certain amount (say $15M) in arby, why would he negotiate for a deal that would pay him less than that? Arbitration is binding, and it looks likely that he will get somewhere around $15M in arby regardless of how poorly he pitches for the remainder of this season. If the Padres offer him arby, they have to be willing to pay him something like $15M for the 2023 season.

There is certainly a good chance that the Padres will offer him arby. There is just a lot of risk to that decision. They could be throwing a lot of money down the drain, and since they're already pushing the luxury tax threshold, they could be paying a penalty to throw that money down the drain. 

[torts]

?

[BruisedCrew]

Hader picked up a save as the Padres completed a sweep of the Giants. 
 

Gave up a bloop single and a WP that the catcher should have stopped but retired the next 3 hitters on a K and two easy fly outs. 

[SomewhereInTime]

On 8/29/2022 at 12:05 PM, jerichoholicninja said:

The whole my agent and I decided "I'm only going to pitch 1 inning and it will be the 9th inning" thing. I don't know if it's a bad relationship but it just feels like one where both sides are content to move on from each other.

Yeah that was pretty much the moment I thought Hader needed to be traded (Or more specifically, after 2020 when we saw him being used this way that season).  They almost waited too long but luckily they still got good value for him.

[UpandIn]

On 8/29/2022 at 2:20 PM, nate82 said:

Plenty of teams would take that bet on a 1-year deal.  Hader only gets to $20m if he has a dominant September.  Meaning he lowers his ERA and he gets more saves.

If he continues on his current path it would be $15-18m.  At $18m for one year there are plenty of teams who would be interested in Hader.  

What's the realistic list of teams that's paying 18M for Hader?

NYY
LAD
SD-Because they traded for him and they'd look just bad giving up on him.
NYM
Philly
Houston
Tor/LAA/Bost-MAYBE they'd pay. They're all capable, but Toronto has a closer and they're already pushing their payroll(they could obviously push more). LAA needs someone other than Ohtani who can pitch the first 5 before even talking about the last one. Boston seems in this no-mans land with their spending where they're not really willing to match what what TOP players are getting. They have to figure out Xander and Devers contracts. They're either gonna be handing out 70M a year for those two players, or...they'll trade Devers(and 70 may be conservative). 
No NLC, no ALC team I don't think
 

Not many teams can pay a closer 18M and even fewer can do so on a longer contract. There's always a team that jumps in out of nowhere like Minnesota did for Correa. Baltimore could be that type of team, but they've got a closer now who's pretty damn nasty and they feel like they're probably still a year away from really competing. 

 

[UpandIn]

On 8/30/2022 at 8:59 AM, brewcrewdue80 said:

We threw 10mil didn't we at Gagne?  Hader will still command more. Rosenthal got a prorated 4.5m contract.  

Hader can just sign a 1yr deal and skip Arb. Pay him what he made for this season or even bump it 1-2.5M more.

All it would take is a solid couple ST innings for a team like Yankees to make a trade for Hader.  Just because of that is why he won't be non-tendered.

Yeah, but he won't be getting the same as he got this year or just 1-2.5M more. I think you're still looking of a floor of ~16/17M if you go to arbitration with Hader. 

So you'd have to on-tender him, THEN try and work out that deal. Or just try and work it out before the deadline...and there's no real reason for Hader to do that.

[CheezWizHed]

Interesting comments by the dulcet tones of Brian Anderson on Hader showing signs of problems before being traded. 

https://www.mlb.com/video/brewers-postseason-chances

Go to 4:35 min mark (though the whole interview is good)

[KeithStone53151]

14 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

Hader picked up a save as the Padres completed a sweep of the Giants. 
 

Gave up a bloop single and a WP that the catcher should have stopped but retired the next 3 hitters on a K and two easy fly outs. 

I happened to notice this happening and tuned in. Hader was hitting 98 pretty regularly, location was an issue though. His k was on 98 literally middle middle, the hitter was just a hair late. While watching, as much as I knew him imploding again would have been great for the Brewers, I was rooting for him to finish the game off. I've been a big fan of Hader for a long time and feel for the guy as much as I can feel for a multi-millionaire baseball player. I feel like he needed that one. Hopefully this weekend against the Dodgers the Padres just get smoked by 5 runs a game and Hader doesn't even have to pitch, that sounds way better.

[rickh150]

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds-graphs
Hader has been bad sure, but boy did our playoff % went down fast at the deadline.