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Corbin Burnes Contract Talks (or lack thereof)


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So I looked into pitcher extensions around the league and if a pitcher doesn't sign an early extension (Freddy and Ashby style) it is pretty rare for them to sign deals before they are FA or a year away from FA. The few that do sign extensions are usually on the team friendly side and only buy out a year of FA. Long-term extensions for pitchers just seem pretty uncommon. I think Cole might be the last mega deal for SP and we will move to smaller term with larger AAV (similar to Scherzer) style deals.

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Communication is a two way street.  There was nothing stopping him going to his agent and asking for a contract extension.  I don't think either side would have came to an agreement for a contract.  Burnes' agent would have told him to wait for free agency and the Brewers would have only offered him a team friendly contract.  Right now or even last year it just didn't make any sense for the Brewers to approach Burnes on a contract.  

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The time to have extended him to a friendly deal would have been 2018 or 19 most likely. At this point, unless he's willing to take an extreme discount, I don't see how the two sides work out a deal. It sucks but it is what it is. 

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It pains me to say this is exactly right. Corbin isn't signing here. If he continues high level, elite pitching, he'll sign for $400 million somewhere. Not Milwaukee. You'd think Milwaukee would try but I'm sure they see the writing on the wall.

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1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

So I looked into pitcher extensions around the league and if a pitcher doesn't sign an early extension (Freddy and Ashby style) it is pretty rare for them to sign deals before they are FA or a year away from FA. The few that do sign extensions are usually on the team friendly side and only buy out a year of FA. Long-term extensions for pitchers just seem pretty uncommon. I think Cole might be the last mega deal for SP and we will move to smaller term with larger AAV (similar to Scherzer) style deals.

Joe Musgrove just signed an extension with the Padres despite the fact he was set to hit free agency after the season. So, not impossible, but the question is are the Brewers willing to pony up enough to make Corbin even consider forgoing free agency. If he's willing to do a shorter deal than Yelich but with a high AAV, I could see the Brewers getting involved. Any long-term commitment like Yelich, though, and that's almost suicide for this organization.

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6 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Joe Musgrove just signed an extension with the Padres despite the fact he was set to hit free agency after the season. So, not impossible, but the question is are the Brewers willing to pony up enough to make Corbin even consider forgoing free agency. If he's willing to do a shorter deal than Yelich but with a high AAV, I could see the Brewers getting involved. Any long-term commitment like Yelich, though, and that's almost suicide for this organization.

Yeah I mentioned it is usually early extension like (Ashby or Peralta) or extensions the year before FA (Musgrove and Berrios). Seems pretty rare for guys to get contracts in between pre-arb and final year of arb. I really just don't see any way we retain Burnes unless he takes a super team friendly contract. Short length, higher AAV contract likely puts Burnes in the $35-40M range and I just can't see the Brewers shelling out that much money per year to a SP. 

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On 9/12/2022 at 8:53 PM, MoreTrife said:

It pains me to say this is exactly right. Corbin isn't signing here. If he continues high level, elite pitching, he'll sign for $400 million somewhere. Not Milwaukee. You'd think Milwaukee would try but I'm sure they see the writing on the wall.

Jacob deGrom...who is probably the most dominant pitcher of this generation and was coming off 3 straight 200IP season signed a 5/138M extension.

Soto is getting 400M
Turner may get 400M

It's VERY unlikely Burnes or any pitcher will, and for the Brewers to not even approach him to TALK about a contract extension is...asinine. 

3 YEARS until he was set to become a FA and they didn't even talk to him. Gauge his interest? And the argument is, "well, why bother, he'd probably say no."


I guess there is a reason SO many GMs were shocked at what the Braves signed Albies and Acuna Jr for(or even Riley, though that was at least closer to market value). 

100M guaranteed for a guy who's one injury away from a career ending/altering injury...he PROBABLY doesn't sign. Though the fact that he's even made mention of it would infer that there was at least some interest on his part. 

Quote

Yeah I mentioned it is usually early extension like (Ashby or Peralta) or extensions the year before FA (Musgrove and Berrios). Seems pretty rare for guys to get contracts in between pre-arb and final year of arb. I really just don't see any way we retain Burnes unless he takes a super team friendly contract. Short length, higher AAV contract likely puts Burnes in the $35-40M range and I just can't see the Brewers shelling out that much money per year to a SP. 

Certainly...as a FREE AGENT. Not with 3 years and potentially 600 innings, 3 playoff races and all the risk that comes with that between him and unrestricted free agency. 

THAT should come out to ~20-25M AAV. 

Ronald Acuna should be in line for a 35M dollar a year deal. Instead he's coming up on what would be his 3rd arbitration year next year and he's locked in at 17M per year. 
He's been "worth" roughly 150M dollars.

Why would a 21 year old and his agents let him pass up a couple hundred MILLION in earnings? I don't know, and I don't care, but the deal doesn't get done without approaching Acuna Jr.

 

The Braves have set themselves up to compete with the top payroll teams by signing players when it was advantageous for them(Acuna Jr, Albies, Riley, Olson, Micael Harris, ANOTHER 21 year old who's worth ~5 WAR this year) all for smart long term deals. And then when a player doesn't extend, they move on. 

What did they save over the next decade on those deals? Half a billion? More?

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3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Joe Musgrove just signed an extension with the Padres despite the fact he was set to hit free agency after the season. So, not impossible, but the question is are the Brewers willing to pony up enough to make Corbin even consider forgoing free agency. If he's willing to do a shorter deal than Yelich but with a high AAV, I could see the Brewers getting involved. Any long-term commitment like Yelich, though, and that's almost suicide for this organization.

I really doubt many pitchers are looking at or for the 9 year deals at this point.

They're more in the 3-5 year range.

I really don't know how these things are initiated, but this seems just...lazy and stupid on the Brewers behalf. I think dress this up. You at least sit down and have that conversation. If they come out with something going INTO this year in the 5/150 range, you say, "we think he's worth it, we just can't commit those resources to one player," go about your day.

But the guy wins a Cy Young and you don't even have the cursory meeting? Really? The same organization that was outbidding the Cubs for Yu Darvish reportedly? Or at LEAST had a 100M+ offer on the table after signing LoCain?

9 years though...I sincerely doubt either side would have wanted that.


This is just maddening to hear. I would assume the same is true of Woodruff as well. Now the question is do they make some cursory Prince Fielder, Carlos Lee type offer so you can say you tried later on?
 

And to be clear, I don't think the Brewers did this because they're "cheap" and Mark Attanasio is "lining his own pockets," I think they likely did this because they're generally pretty risk adverse. Well, it takes a little risk to win a WS. 

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how much longer can we keep Burnes before we really have to pay??im fine with getting a haul for Burnes in the near future instead of paying an absurd amount of money

thats life as a Brewers fan in our market....obviously if he will take a little less or some sort of team friendlier deal you do it, but i just dont see that happening 

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I’m sure Corbin Burnes is willing to listen to offers…at market prices. 
 

I’m equally sure the Brewers are not going to pay a pitcher 30-35 million dollars a year or more. 
 

If you don’t have money to afford a Mercedes, does it make any sense to go to the showroom and ask about financing?

 

 

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4 hours ago, Neazy32 said:

how much longer can we keep Burnes before we really have to pay??im fine with getting a haul for Burnes in the near future instead of paying an absurd amount of money

thats life as a Brewers fan in our market....obviously if he will take a little less or some sort of team friendlier deal you do it, but i just dont see that happening 

Yeah, it's REALLY hard to see it happening when they don't even talk to you about it.

I am FULLY resolved to being a small market team with a limited number of fans(fans that support their team more than any other fanbase...but there are simply fewer of us). 

That's doesn't mean you just...don't...try. 2025, we'll have a top 4-5 offense, good starting pitching, just lacking that true ace to pitch Game 1 of playoff series or just dominant teams. Well...we probably wouldn't regardless, but at least you would have been told no instead of even talking to him and seeing if MAYBE he valued 100+M in guaranteed money 3 years out than just not even approaching him. 

And the fact that he seems bothered by it....maybe he was looking for it. It IS the only organization he's ever known. But, now we'll never know.

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I’m sure Corbin Burnes is willing to listen to offers…at market prices. 
 

I’m equally sure the Brewers are not going to pay a pitcher 30-35 million dollars a year or more. 
 

If you don’t have money to afford a Mercedes, does it make any sense to go to the showroom and ask about financing?

Corbin Burnes was 3 years away from Free Agency. He was NOT getting a market value contract. 

Again, I just named a whole bunch of players who signed team friendly deals. 

Also, you CAN absolutely afford the money that Mercedes costs. You can't buy that Mercedes and then...I don't want keep going with this analogy, but you're obviously limited in other areas. Good thing that you've got a loaded farm system with MLB ready players and not only are you getting a significant raise from your own TV deal, but a big raise from the National deal.

The Brewers payroll isn't going to approach the Cohen tax, but it should reasonable be able to sit in the 150 range. Especially if it means keeping the best pitcher you've ever developed. 

 

But AGAIN, we don't even know what the price is. We're presuming he wants FA money 3 years before he was eligible to become a FA. That was never realistic. The Mets, the Yankees, the Dodgers, no team does that. Why would we?

They've clearly already determined they'er going to trade him and they have a good idea when that's going to happen.

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Just now, UpandIn said:

Yeah, it's REALLY hard to see it happening when they don't even talk to you about it.

 

Corbin Burnes was 3 years away from Free Agency. He was NOT getting a market value contract. 

Again, I just named a whole bunch of players who signed team friendly deals. 

Also, you CAN absolutely afford the money that Mercedes costs. You can't buy that Mercedes and then...I don't want keep going with this analogy, but you're obviously limited in other areas. Good thing that you've got a loaded farm system with MLB ready players and not only are you getting a significant raise from your own TV deal, but a big raise from the National deal.

The Brewers payroll isn't going to approach the Cohen tax, but it should reasonable be able to sit in the 150 range. Especially if it means keeping the best pitcher you've ever develop. 

 

But AGAIN, we don't even know what the price is. We're presuming he wants FA money 3 years before he was eligible to become a FA. That was never realistic. The Mets, the Yankees, the Dodgers, no team does that. Why would we?

They've clearly already determined they'er going to trade him and they have a good idea when that's going to happen.

What are you talking about? If Corbin Burnes was interested in an extension in 2019 or 2020 it would’ve happened already. Players might be dumb, but the mega sports agencies like CAA are not. They know Burnes will do best financially going year to year and hitting free agency after 6, and he apparently has taken their advice. 
 

If you pay attention when other players are asked about an extension (Soto, Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant, etc.), every single time the response is “they’re willing to listen” to extension offers. But they always leave out the second part “if the money is right”. Burnes is no different.

And why wouldn’t they listen to offers, they can always say no? Then when ultimately declare free agency they could then do so with a set of numbers already as a floor. 
 

 

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I would have thought that the team would have at least reached out in the offseason to at least gauge what Corbin would have wanted. I get that after he won the Cy Young it is almost guaranteed he will want 30+ million at some point which we likely can't afford with Yeli on the books. Still, the organization should at least fake some interest or something to keep a guy happy.

It does tell me that we may be more open to dealing Corbin in the offseason than I previously would have thought.

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4 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I would have thought that the team would have at least reached out in the offseason to at least gauge what Corbin would have wanted. I get that after he won the Cy Young it is almost guaranteed he will want 30+ million at some point which we likely can't afford with Yeli on the books. Still, the organization should at least fake some interest or something to keep a guy happy.

It does tell me that we may be more open to dealing Corbin in the offseason than I previously would have thought.

What makes you think he’s unhappy? Or put another way: if he was hypothetically offered 5yrs/100 he would feel love for the team, or feel more appreciated?

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2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

What are you talking about?

I'm talking about Corbin Burnes coming out and publicly stating that the Brewers didn't even approach him while he was THREE years away from free agency...and players THREE years away from free agency do not get paid market value for those three arbitration years. 

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

If Corbin Burnes was interested in an extension in 2019 or 2020 it would’ve happened already.

Bit tougher when the team not only doesn't make an offer, but doesn't even engage in talks. 

4 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Players might be dumb, but the mega sports agencies like CAA are not. They know Burnes will do best financially going year to year and hitting free agency after 6, and he apparently has taken their advice. 

Players are the ones making the decisions. Pitchers in particularly are not always best served going year to year. Jimmy Nelson for example, NOT best served going year to year.

5 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

If you pay attention when other players are asked about an extension (Soto, Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant, etc.), every single time the response is “they’re willing to listen” to extension offers. But they always leave out the second part “if the money is right”. Burnes is no different.

Except the players who sign extensions...or possibly, AGAIN, with 3 years of arbitration and about 2M in career earnings thus far on top of his under slot ~500K signing bonus as a 4th round pick.

But now, almost through another season, NOW Mark Attanasio wants to talk about a contract extension for Corbin Burnes and he really wants to keep him together.


Of course the "money has to be right." That doesn't mean that the money has to be top of the FA market type money, but again...3 years of arbitration left changes that equation. Each year changes that equation. The cost to sign goes up, the impetus to sign and guarantee yourself 100+M goes down. 

 

That you believe they couldn't have signed him is...immaterial to this particular discussion. To not even get an idea of what it'd cost...to not even talk to him...it's just a bad look. I'll once again use Ronald Acuna Jr. NOBODY would have predicted that extension saying he'd never accept it. And he wouldn't have...if the Braves had never approached him and started the talks.

Burnes likely doesn't sign an extension, that's not even the point here. Not even talking to him about one, that's not doing your due diligence. 

 

Especially for an owner still talking about signing him now, but who still hasn't had any talks with him. Anyway, I'll check this out later...

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1 minute ago, Jopal78 said:

What makes you think he’s unhappy? Or put another way: if he was hypothetically offered 5yrs/100 he would feel love for the team, or feel more appreciated?

“You would think maybe there would have been some initial talks last offseason, but nothing.”

Doesn't sound like he's thrilled by it. 

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24 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

And why wouldn’t they listen to offers, they can always say no? Then when ultimately declare free agency they could then do so with a set of numbers already as a floor. 

I missed this. Are you saying that 3 years into the future...IF the Brewers had made an offer to Burnes, now he can use that offer to get a contract when he's on the open market?

But, you mentioned Bryant. Just...to illustrate the point how players values can decrease, he turned down a 250M dollar contract with the Cubs. Ending up signing with one of the worst run franchises in Colorado(I sincerely doubt he WANTED to go there) and he signed for significantly less. 

In fact, Bryant went from 8/250 extension to a 7/182.
From the Cubs where he was a cult hero...to the Rockies who give away historically great players while paying the other team to take them. 

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Yeah the fact that he went out of his way to say the Brewers haven’t even approached him yet suggests to me that he’s at least a little miffed with the front office. This front office has been fantastic overall the past 5+ years but there seems to be a disconnect between them and the players this year for whatever reason.

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4 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Yeah the fact that he went out of his way to say the Brewers haven’t even approached him yet suggests to me that he’s at least a little miffed with the front office. This front office has been fantastic overall the past 5+ years but there seems to be a disconnect between them and the players this year for whatever reason.

I don't know if I would characterize it as "went out of his way". I thought it was pretty obvious that McCalvy asked him that question directly, and he simply answered truthfully.

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I'm not the least bit surprised that there has been no movement on this at all. In many cases, both teams and/or players shut down contract talks once the season begins. What happens through November and December will be interesting.

I wouldn't entirely rule out a Burnes extension, though it's unlikely to happen.With two years of control remaining, there is a pretty significant incentive for Corbin to sign a deal before the 2023 season, as pitching arms are notoriously fickle and he may find himself more interested in $200m guaranteed today than the possibility of $300m in two years.

If the Yelich contract did not exist, I would be a lot more bullish on the Brewers extending Burnes.

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51 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I don't know if I would characterize it as "went out of his way". I thought it was pretty obvious that McCalvy asked him that question directly, and he simply answered truthfully.

I get what you’re saying but Burnes could have also said no comment or any contract talks goes through my agent, something to that effect.

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2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I'm talking about Corbin Burnes coming out and publicly stating that the Brewers didn't even approach him while he was THREE years away from free agency...and players THREE years away from free agency do not get paid market value for those three arbitration years. 

Bit tougher when the team not only doesn't make an offer, but doesn't even engage in talks. 

Players are the ones making the decisions. Pitchers in particularly are not always best served going year to year. Jimmy Nelson for example, NOT best served going year to year.

Except the players who sign extensions...or possibly, AGAIN, with 3 years of arbitration and about 2M in career earnings thus far on top of his under slot ~500K signing bonus as a 4th round pick.

But now, almost through another season, NOW Mark Attanasio wants to talk about a contract extension for Corbin Burnes and he really wants to keep him together.


Of course the "money has to be right." That doesn't mean that the money has to be top of the FA market type money, but again...3 years of arbitration left changes that equation. Each year changes that equation. The cost to sign goes up, the impetus to sign and guarantee yourself 100+M goes down. 

 

That you believe they couldn't have signed him is...immaterial to this particular discussion. To not even get an idea of what it'd cost...to not even talk to him...it's just a bad look. I'll once again use Ronald Acuna Jr. NOBODY would have predicted that extension saying he'd never accept it. And he wouldn't have...if the Braves had never approached him and started the talks.

Burnes likely doesn't sign an extension, that's not even the point here. Not even talking to him about one, that's not doing your due diligence. 

 

Especially for an owner still talking about signing him now, but who still hasn't had any talks with him. Anyway, I'll check this out later...

All this is a bunch of nonsense. Did Burnes say he would give up additional years for an extension, no. Did Burnes say he would sign a team-friendly deal, no. Does Corbin Burnes likely feel he should have been paid more money to this point based on his performance in '18, '20, and '21? Absolutely.  Every player complains about the salary structure for pre-arbitration eligible players.

Frankly, we don't know if Burnes is willing to give the Brewers additional years, or take less money than he could earn as a free agent to stay with Milwaukee. But the Brewers need one of those if not both to be affirmatives in order for an extension to make any sense for them. 

Moreover, with regards to Jimmy Nelson its apples and oranges. He suffered a catastrophic arm injury that has nearly ended his career (50 IP since that injury). Yes, there is a risk of injury going year to year, but the salary arbitration rules pretty much make it a given that players will earn more going year to year in arbitration, than selling off their arbitration eligible years up front. 

With respect to Acuna, he was a 17 year old kid from a third world country when he turned pro, for a $100,000 bonus. Corbin Burnes was a college pitcher from southern California who got over a half million dollars to turn pro. That difference is likely your explanation why Acuna signed an upfront extension.

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