Javy Guerra to Brewers, PTBNL (RHP Victor Castaneda) to Rays

[sveumrules]

MLBTR reporting Brewers have acquired Javy Guerra from the Rays for a PTBNL.

[sveumrules]

Looks like Javy has a pretty nondescript 6.60 ERA and 5.41 FIP in 43 IP spread over four MLB seasons.

Was pretty dominant at AAA last year though with 41 IP of 1.74 ERA and 2.61 FIP with 11.32 K9 vs 3.48 BB9.

FanGraphs lists him as out of options.

[jay87shot]

He has a great arm, averaged 98 on heater. A little tweak and he has some late inning potential. Better than Gustave, Gott, Suter, or Perdomo.

[Brewcrew82]

46 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

He has a great arm, averaged 98 on heater. A little tweak and he has some late inning potential. Better than Gustave, Gott, Suter, or Perdomo.

Agreed. Seems like that starts with ditching the 2-seamer, which had less than a 10% whiff rate, in favor of the 4-seamer, which induced whiffs more than 30% of the time with a significantly lower xSLG. 

Just don't make the same mistake I did and get unnecessarily peeved because you looked at the stats for the wrong Javy Guerra. lol

[dlk9s]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

FanGraphs lists him as out of options.

Sounds dire.

[Ro Mueller]

Let’s hope 2023 out-of-options Guerra is as effective as 2022 out-of-options Gott.

I suppose Bush will move into Boxberger’s role, but we still need a high leverage lefty reliever, in my view.

[Robocaller]

12 minutes ago, damuelle said:

Let’s hope 2023 out-of-options Guerra is as effective as 2022 out-of-options Gott.

I suppose Bush will move into Boxberger’s role, but we still need a high leverage lefty reliever, in my view.

Why? We kept our higher-leverage but not closer reliever.

[Ro Mueller]

2 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Why? We kept our higher-leverage but not closer reliever.

We’ve lost Hader-Rogers and Suter, so our only lefty reliever appears to be Milner, plus Ashby and Small depending how we use them. I assume that’s not enough, so I expect we’ll add one more solid lefty reliever.

[Jopal78]

With the exodus of relief pitchers they’re creating a lot of innings that will need to be covered. 

[SF70]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

With the exodus of relief pitchers they’re creating a lot of innings that will need to be covered. 

I think the team sees Middendorf & Uribe as 2 new shuttle arms that can join Milner & Strezlecki & Cousins giving the team good middle inning coverage, especially if Gasser & possibly Small pitch out of the pen at some point next season.

They still need a veteran HL arm added, preferably LH, that can hopefully form a nice 3- headed monster at the backend among Williams, Bush, & Guerra.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

I think the team sees Middendorf & Uribe as 2 new shuttle arms that can join Milner & Strezlecki & Cousins giving the team good middle inning coverage, especially if Gasser & possibly Small pitch out of the pen at some point next season.

They still need a veteran HL arm added, preferably LH, that can hopefully form a nice 3- headed monster at the backend among Williams, Bush, & Guerra.

I guess I was thinking between Suter, Boxberger and Gott that’s 170+ innings from three quality relievers. That will be a tall order to cover those innings and maintain the status quo. 
 

Seems like they’re stacking the deck against themselves to get better in the pen with jettisoning these arms. 

[Thurston Fluff]

2 hours ago, SF70 said:

I think the team sees Middendorf & Uribe as 2 new shuttle arms that can join Milner & Strezlecki & Cousins giving the team good middle inning coverage, especially if Gasser & possibly Small pitch out of the pen at some point next season.

They still need a veteran HL arm added, preferably LH, that can hopefully form a nice 3- headed monster at the backend among Williams, Bush, & Guerra.

I'm not sure the plan is to hope Guerra can be a back of the pen guy. Usually those cost more than a player to be named later. I think the more realistic hope is he takes Suter's role. Even that is questionable.

[SF70]

19 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I guess I was thinking between Suter, Boxberger and Gott that’s 170+ innings from three quality relievers. That will be a tall order to cover those innings and maintain the status quo. 
 

Seems like they’re stacking the deck against themselves to get better in the pen with jettisoning these arms. 

Guerra replaces Gott. Suter can be replaced by a starter arm like Small or Gasser or Houser andBox can be replaced by the HL acquisition they need.

[Jopal78]

46 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Guerra replaces Gott. Suter can be replaced by a starter arm like Small or Gasser or Houser andBox can be replaced by the HL acquisition they need.

You saw Small pitch this last year, right?

But for a major improvement, he’s  not a major league pitcher. The fact they gave journeyman Jason Alexander 70+ innings ahead of Small says a lot.

[MVP2110]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

You saw Small pitch this last year, right?

But for a major improvement, he’s  not a major league pitcher. The fact they gave journeyman Jason Alexander 70+ innings ahead of Small says a lot.

Ah yes, I forgot pitchers stop developing after 6.1 innings in the Major Leagues 

[SF70]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

You saw Small pitch this last year, right?

But for a major improvement, he’s  not a major league pitcher. The fact they gave journeyman Jason Alexander 70+ innings ahead of Small says a lot.

Yes, I’ve seen Small pitch and he’s lost his release point. Can he get it back? I think so, and if he does, he can help out of the bullpen until he’s needed in the rotation. If he can’t throw strikes he’ll be out of baseball.

 

[jerichoholicninja]

11 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Guerra was a top 100 prospect 7 years ago. 
I guess they're thinking that sometimes the **** you throw against the wall will stick.

 

He was also a shortstop 7 years ago, for what it's worth. It's not too often a 22 year old makes it to the majors as a position player and then moves to the mound.

[Robocaller]

7 hours ago, SF70 said:

I think the team sees Middendorf & Uribe as 2 new shuttle arms that can join Milner & Strezlecki & Cousins giving the team good middle inning coverage, especially if Gasser & possibly Small pitch out of the pen at some point next season.

They still need a veteran HL arm added, preferably LH, that can hopefully form a nice 3- headed monster at the backend among Williams, Bush, & Guerra.

If they put Guerra at the backend of the bullpen at the beginning of the year, that would be bad. 

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

Yes, I’ve seen Small pitch and he’s lost his release point. Can he get it back? I think so, and if he does, he can help out of the bullpen until he’s needed in the rotation. If he can’t throw strikes he’ll be out of baseball.

 

I think Small is our next Suter. Whether he does that in 2023 or 2024, I don't know.

[SF70]

27 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

I think Small is our next Suter. Whether he does that in 2023 or 2024, I don't know.

If he gets his release-point fixed and can get back to strike-throwing, Small can be more than a bullpen arm. Prior to his wildness, he had been making progress on his SL, which if he can get that pitch to average, would give him the third pitch he needs to rotation.

 

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

If he gets his release-point fixed and can get back to strike-throwing, Small can be more than a bullpen arm. Prior to his wildness, he had been making progress on his SL, which if he can get that pitch to average, would give him the third pitch he needs to rotation.

 

A guy who sits at 90mph needs to have a filthy breaking ball to be a quality starter. I don't think Small qualifies. I'd like to be wrong.

[SF70]

29 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

A guy who sits at 90mph needs to have a filthy breaking ball to be a quality starter. I don't think Small qualifies. I'd like to be wrong.

Small has a 55 grade FB because of its spin and deception. He also has a plus CH, so 2 out pitches. The improvement of his SL is key to how good a starter he can be. He had 12 whiffs in his start last year vs the Cubbies in less than 3 innings before he lost his release point, so he has swing and miss stuff.

 

[Outlander]

Player to be named later announced.

 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Hmmm.  Bigger price to pay than I expected.  I assume this means Guerra is making the team.  Still, Castaneda probably has a ceiling of a long reliever in ML, so I guess its a fine trade.

[SF70]

28 minutes ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

Hmmm.  Bigger price to pay than I expected.  I assume this means Guerra is making the team.  Still, Castaneda probably has a ceiling of a long reliever in ML, so I guess its a fine trade.

The Rays are such a smart organization. Casteneda could excel imo, as a reliever with his plus splitter. It’ll be interesting to see what the Rays do with him.