Three-way trade with A's, Braves; Brewers get William Contreras

[thebruce44]

8 hours ago, clancyphile said:

On the flip side, won't we also see more steals from Frelick/Mitchell/Yelich/Turang, among others? Ruiz's speed and SB ability is good, don't get me wrong, but Vince Coleman 2.0 is a small price to pay for someone who could potentially end up the second-best catcher in franchise history behind Jonathan Lucroy.

BJ Surhoff would like a word, may he rest in peace.

.

[MNBrew]

Missing the GIF/MEME reference, but B.J. Surhoff is very much still alive.

[Robocaller]

7 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

That said, Milw is filled with high k pitchers.

why would that lessen SB? High K means they tend to go deeper in the count, so more pitches to time the steal.

[Robocaller]

4 hours ago, TURBO said:

I just don't see them carrying 3 catchers on a daily basis.

yeah, maybe when someone is nicked up but not put on the DL.

And we'll probably always have a C on the taxi squad, if that's still a thing.

[Robocaller]

4 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Taylor is a 4th or 5th OFer who is not a very good hitter and he's not a great defender. 

He's a better-than-average hitter and a better-than-average fielder.

He has value, particularly after trading Ruiz, who is a RH bat that could have been on the roster on O.D.

 

[sveumrules]

42 minutes ago, umphrey said:

I can't believe I'm defending Hiura, I wouldn't mind seeing him go, but wasn't he a better hitter last year than Winker and Tellez?

Hiura (115 wRC+) hit better than Winker (109 wRC+) and Tellez (110 wRC+) last year, but it was in a small sample of only 266 PAs with a bunch of alarming (41.7 K%) or unsustainable (.355 BABIP | 29.8 HR/FB%) inputs under the hood.

Even with ranking 15th in Barrel% for 2022 (min 200 PA), StatCast still thought Keston “got lucky” with actual AVG/SLG of 226/449 vs expected AVG/SLG of 205/425.

Among 247 players with at least 1,000 PA from 2019-22, Winker (12.7 BB% | 17.8 K%) ranks 14th in BB/K ratio, Rowdy (8.6 BB% | 22.1 K%) is essentially average at 131st, while Keston (7.4 BB% | 36.0 K%) comes in 236th.

Those plate discipline profiles are a big part of why Steamer gives Winker (122 wRC+) and Rowdy (123 wRC+) better projections than Hiura (99 wRC+) for 2023.

[JosephC]

18 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Law not very high on Ruiz. He wrote, Ruiz can run and make contact but his hard contact is lacking and Ruiz has not been one of his 100 prospects (nor were any of the prospects in this three way trade).

Not sure if it's already been posted, but Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs says "says the most likely outcome for him is as a reserve outfielder" when evaluating Ruiz.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/three-teams-nine-players-one-surprising-winner-examining-the-sean-murphy-blockbuster/

Worth noting that the A's GM took over in 2019, and they were a 102 loss team in 2022.  Is it fair to point that out since the ownership has tanked payroll?  You be the judge.  I do know that all sorts of handicapped payroll teams have done better than 102 losses.

So I tend to think that the experts are right on this and the A's have ridiculously overvalued what they are getting back in this deal.  This package isn't just Ruiz, Kyle Muller - who MLB.com had as the Braves #1 prospect - also went to the A's in this deal, and it's possible they could see Royber Salinas as prime lottery ticket material (he had 175 strikeouts in 109 innings between A+ and A ball last year).  But they are really going against what all the experts are saying.  And I'll point out that these experts are not just watching 5 minutes of video and forming an opinion based on that, they get a bunch of information and opinions from various scouts and various "front office" folks.

Nobody has a crystal ball and, really, if just one of the guys that the A's get back turned into a solid 2.5 WAR player, that guy should make up what they will lose from parting with 3 years of Murphy.  But if this turns out to be a bad deal for the A's, they are in line for some heavy criticism because, at the time the deal was made, it doesn't appear they got nearly what they should have gotten back for dealing Murphy.  Murphy was a 5.1 fWAR player last year, Realmuto was the only catcher that posted a better fWAR.

But certainly nice for the Brewers to get what seems like a bargain.  Especially since it wasn't looking like they wanted to throw any significant money into the position, to have a young, cheap player fall into their lap is welcome.

[Redd Vencher]

Rutschman had a higher fWAR as well.

[JosephC]

Sorry, I forgot to adjust plate appearances, so only qualifiers showed up on the list I was looking at.  Rutschman only had 470 plate appearances, but did have a higher fWAR than Murphy.

[brewcrewdue80]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

why would that lessen SB? High K means they tend to go deeper in the count, so more pitches to time the steal.

 

You know how 30% or higher k rate for batters are frowned upon? It carries an expected lower BA. Meaning less times getting on base.

Well for our pitchers less men getting on base mean less runners to steal a base. Brewers pitching had a .302 OB. With a 3.1 pct HR pct.  So about .290 OB? Pct.. 

This vs the Cardinals who has a .314OB but 2.4pct HR rate. About 306 OB.   About 95 less baserunners throughout an entire season.

[rickh150]

10 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

The trade values site REALLY struggles assigning values to young prospects that haven't yet made a significant contribution in the majors. Having a value on Ruiz of roughly 4 is a joke, especially after the breakout he had and the fact he was traded as a major piece for the top relief arm in the game a few months ago. Yes, perhaps the Athletics had an uncharacteristic high value on him, but obviously so did the Brewers. And those are two teams who are generally well run and are pretty spot on with player evaluations much of the time. 

I get the feeling that opinions here are skewed on Ruiz because of the Hader trade fallout. People want to think that the Brewers were fleeced in that deal because they need justification for their anger. But in reality, Ruiz obviously holds a high value, and the Brewers likely did pretty well in that deal, picking up what now looks like two very high-end prospects in Ruiz and Gasser.

Ruiz obviously holds high vale to the A’s. Kudos to the Brewers for uncovering this fact. 

[MrTPlush]

From that FA graphs article:?

“Because now it’s time to come down to Milwaukee’s role in this trade. If you want to know why your life is harder than it should be, you should become familiar with an economic concept called rent-seeking. Rent-seeking is the behavior of middlemen, people or more often companies that insert themselves between the people who produce goods and services and those who consume them, charging additional fees and exploiting regulatory loopholes while providing little or no additional value to the proposition. Examples include: Health insurance companies, Ticketmaster, rideshare and gig economy startups. Think sub-cable company levels of cost-to-usefulness ratio and you’ll be on the right track. 

That’s how much the Brewers won this trade.”

Honestly, the A’s are stupid. They should have just taken Contreras, because that would have made way more sense. At minimum, they should have traded for Contreras and then shipped him off to the Brewers after the fact. I have no doubt Matt Arnold is like every Brewers fan under the sun and would have shipped Ruiz plus multiple other players to get Contreras. The fact the Brewers only sent Ruiz and got a bullpen pitcher and a prospect on top of Contreras is really just a total failure by the A’s. This must have been a trade completely done via text because there is no way Arnold could have kept a straight face in person or composed himself on the phone hearing this offer.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

From that FA graphs article:?

“Because now it’s time to come down to Milwaukee’s role in this trade. If you want to know why your life is harder than it should be, you should become familiar with an economic concept called rent-seeking. Rent-seeking is the behavior of middlemen, people or more often companies that insert themselves between the people who produce goods and services and those who consume them, charging additional fees and exploiting regulatory loopholes while providing little or no additional value to the proposition. Examples include: Health insurance companies, Ticketmaster, rideshare and gig economy startups. Think sub-cable company levels of cost-to-usefulness ratio and you’ll be on the right track. 

That’s how much the Brewers won this trade.”

Honestly, the A’s are stupid. They should have just taken Contreras, because that would have made way more sense. At minimum, they should have traded for Contreras and then shipped him off to the Brewers after the fact. I have no doubt Matt Arnold is like every Brewers fan under the sun and would have shipped Ruiz plus multiple other players to get Contreras. The fact the Brewers only sent Ruiz and got a bullpen pitcher and a prospect on top of Contreras is really just a total failure by the A’s. This must have been a trade completely done via text because there is no way Arnold could have kept a straight face in person or composed himself on the phone hearing this offer.

The A’s just DFA’d two players today. Had the Brewers not taken Payamps, odds are he would’ve been DFA’d anyways.

As for the “prospect,” Yeager was available in the Rule 5 draft, but apparently wasn’t worth the $50,000 fee as he went unselected. Nothing wrong with picking up a live arm for essentially for free, but not really a “prospect”.

[MVP2110]

12 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

The A’s just DFA’d two players today. Had the Brewers not taken Payamps, odds are he would’ve been DFA’d anyways.

As for the “prospect,” Yeager was available in the Rule 5 draft, but apparently wasn’t worth the $50,000 fee as he went unselected. Nothing wrong with picking up a live arm for essentially for free, but not really a “prospect”.

Payamps had a 3.23 ERA last year & a 3.35 career ERA. He wasn't getting DFA'd

[BigWoo53]

I am still stunned Matt Arnold was allowed to pull off this heist. Kudos to him getting involved in that deal for that kind of steal. 

[brewmann04]

hopefully his next move will be just as good.

[sveumrules]

35 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

As for the “prospect,” Yeager was available in the Rule 5 draft, but apparently wasn’t worth the $50,000 fee as he went unselected. Nothing wrong with picking up a live arm for essentially for free, but not really a “prospect”.

Rule 5 picks have to stay on the MLB roster all year.

That seems like a way more important factor than the 50K.

[MrTPlush]

24 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

The A’s just DFA’d two players today. Had the Brewers not taken Payamps, odds are he would’ve been DFA’d anyways.

As for the “prospect,” Yeager was available in the Rule 5 draft, but apparently wasn’t worth the $50,000 fee as he went unselected. Nothing wrong with picking up a live arm for essentially for free, but not really a “prospect”.

As in the MLB Rule 5 draft? If so, that’s just poor analysis. He would have to be on an MLB roster the entire year. Many notable prospects with MLB upside aren’t drafted. Even non competing teams rarely make Rule 5 picks to waste MLB roster spots.

 

[BrewLongma34]

I’m not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but Contreses will be the gift that keeps giving.  We’re no doubt going to be able to pay him in the future so Aaron old will definitely be trading him at some point before 2027.  If he continues to be an all-star caliber catcher/DH…just think of what prospects we’ll be getting in return for him down the road.   
Cheers Matt Arnold!  Cheers indeed! 

[wiguy94]

5 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Potential post-trade lineup with (2023 Steamer Projections)

Yelich (119 OPS+)
Frelick (111 OPS+)
Adames (111 OPS+)
Winker (122 OPS+)
Rowdy (123 OPS+)
Contreras (115 OPS+)
Urias (110 OPS+)
Mitchell (99 OPS+)
Turang (94 OPS+)

This is where a Justin Turner type signing makes sense. Balances that lineup so we don't have 6 LHH. 

[MNBrew]

36 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

The A’s just DFA’d two players today. Had the Brewers not taken Payamps, odds are he would’ve been DFA’d anyways.

As for the “prospect,” Yeager was available in the Rule 5 draft, but apparently wasn’t worth the $50,000 fee as he went unselected. Nothing wrong with picking up a live arm for essentially for free, but not really a “prospect”.

I'd heard the same thing for Payamps.  However, I think you're off on the logic behind your assessment of Yeager.  It's a possibility, but far from the only one.  Lots of decent prospects were Rule 5 eligible.

Not being drafted very well could indicate that other teams don't view the player as likely enough to stick on a major league roster for the whole year.  Yeager split 2022 between A+ & AA and had decent results.  I can't imagine there are many guys who finally make it to AA for part of the year & aren't on (or added to) a team's 40-man roster who are likely good shots to stick in the majors for all of the next year.

[Eye Black]

6 hours ago, JosephC said:

Only real concerning stat that I could find is that Contreras makes contact 68.4% of the time when he swings.  At the MLB level, that is better than what he had done previously.  But 68.4% is the 15th worst number of the 246 players that had 350+ MLB at-bats last year, so he's in the bottom 7%.

Here are the 14 players that finished lower, just looking at batting average and on-base percentage-

Joey Gallo = .160/.280

Chris Taylor = .221/.304

Christopher Morel = .235/.308

Luke Voit = .226/.308

J.D. Davis = .248/.340

Avisail Garcia = .224/.266

Kole Calhoun = .196/.257

Franmil Reyes = .221/.273

Giancarlo Stanton = .211/.297

Oneil Cruz = .233/.294

Patrick Wisdom = .207/.298

Javier Baez = .238/.278

Bobby Dalbec = .215/.283

Teoscar Hernandez = .267/.316

Lots of really low on-base percentages there.  Maybe the Braves saw him as having a problem with getting on base in the future base on his current swing-and-miss rate.

Thanks for sharing this, and I agree that you’d like to see the contact rate a little higher. Luckily, a low contact rate alone isn’t guaranteed to be a death knell, and there are a few outliers in terms of players that can produce big time value with a lower contact rate. One notable example that comes to mind is Fernando Tatis Jr. who had an even worse 67.2% contact rate during his monster 2021 season which included 42 home runs.

One plate discipline stat that’s slightly more favorable to William Contreras is swinging strike rate. If you do the same query of 350 plate appearances from last season, the younger Contreras ranked 40 spots from the bottom in SwStr% at 14.0%. Some notable names he finished better than included Nick Castellanos (17.0%), Salvador Perez (16.9%), Jeremy Peña (15.7%), Luis Robert (15.2%), Nelson Cruz (15.0%), Bryce Harper (14.8%), Byron Buxton (14.6%), Julio Rodriguez (14.4%), Rafael Devers (14.2%). One spot better than Contreras was Dansby Swanson (13.9%) who was in the midst of having a career season offensively. William even finished ahead of brother Wilson (14.4%) in swinging strike rate. 

Plate discipline is obviously a crucial part of the equation, but as long as he’s barreling the ball and doing damage when he is making contact I think he’ll end up proving to be a valuable offensive threat. 

[Brewcrew82]

59 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

As in the MLB Rule 5 draft? If so, that’s just poor analysis. He would have to be on an MLB roster the entire year. Many notable prospects with MLB upside aren’t drafted. Even non competing teams rarely make Rule 5 picks to waste MLB roster spots.

 

They also said that contenders don't dabble in Rule 5 picks, when the Phillies, Padres, Mariners, Cardinals, and Mets all made selections this year, so I wouldn't listen to this particular poster for factual analysis on the Rule 5 draft...

[Jopal78]

31 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

Payamps had a 3.23 ERA last year & a 3.35 career ERA. He wasn't getting DFA'd

That maybe so, but there’s a reason he’s been with 5 organizations in the last two years.

[Brewcrew82]

18 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

This is where a Justin Turner type signing makes sense. Balances that lineup so we don't have 6 LHH. 

Or Wil Meyers for the OF and 1B. 6 LHH is fine against RHP, but it's not exactly going to help us get past this year's woes against LHP.