Packers 2023 Discussion Thread

[CheezWizHed]

On 5/20/2023 at 10:07 AM, brewcrewdue80 said:

If Love starts 16 games or all 17 games, I think it's a failure if they don't win 9games this season. 10 of he starts all 17.  Obviously that can be adjusted if the defense suffers multiple injuries to key guys like Gary's impact did. And no team plays a full season without losing at least 1 top 8 player on it for numerous games.

Wow.  Those are some high expectations.  Rodgers won 6 games his first year with some very good experienced WRs and a similar (maybe a touch worse) defense. 

You listed off a bunch of things that Love is going to have to work out in-game.  Plus, a stable of WRs and TEs still figuring out the game.  If they can win 10 games next year. Love is probably destined for the HOF (i.e. not because of one year, but because he is that caliber of player).  

Either that, or you think Rodgers really held us back last year?

[Fear The Chorizo]

35 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Wow.  Those are some high expectations.  Rodgers won 6 games his first year with some very good experienced WRs and a similar (maybe a touch worse) defense. 

You listed off a bunch of things that Love is going to have to work out in-game.  Plus, a stable of WRs and TEs still figuring out the game.  If they can win 10 games next year. Love is probably destined for the HOF (i.e. not because of one year, but because he is that caliber of player).  

Either that, or you think Rodgers really held us back last year?

I think his injured thumb and father time really limiting his mobility in and outside the pocket for the first time in his career actually did lead to Rodgers no longer being the field-tilting win with whatever's around him quarterback talent we had all grown to expect for ~15 seasons.  That doesn't mean I think Love starting in 2022 would've meant the Packers were a better team, but it does mean that I think the dropoff in quarterback play isn't as steep as it would've been from what Rodgers did in 2020-2021 seasons when he was the league MVP.  The Packers weren't a 2-win roster that the best quarterback in the league managed to get to 8 wins last season -  I think they were a playoff caliber roster that was too inconsistent/injured to evolve into a contending team, quarterback included.

Factor in the schedule for this season, and I don't think it's a huge stretch for this Packer team to finish above 0.500, even with all the youth/warts.

[Vgmastr]

I don't think people realize how bad Rodgers was last season, he finished 26th overall in QBR.  He finished behind Matt Ryan who was so bad the 4-12-1 Colts benched him.  If Love is just an average QB they likely match their win total from last season.

[CheezWizHed]

Good points about schedule... I hadn't factored that in before. 

But I think our WR and TE core is going to have a worse performance.  I believe they are higher ceiling overall, but that won't come out this year...yet.  Especially at the TE level. 

And I think it will take Love a bit to get used to blitz calls, avoiding pressure in the pocket, when to run, etc... things you don't get in practice time. 

I also don't see this team better defensively.  Still have a gaping hole at safety and out DL depth is suspect (not to mention the starting DL isn't overly proven). 

Personally, I'm ok with a step back this year and think the talk of a losing record being a failure is sad.  Give the team a year to get some experience, grown, and gel before expecting too much. 

[Vgmastr]

Just announced, 2025 Draft will be in Green Bay.

[brewcrewdue80]

10 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Wow.  Those are some high expectations.  Rodgers won 6 games his first year with some very good experienced WRs and a similar (maybe a touch worse) defense. 

You listed off a bunch of things that Love is going to have to work out in-game.  Plus, a stable of WRs and TEs still figuring out the game.  If they can win 10 games next year. Love is probably destined for the HOF (i.e. not because of one year, but because he is that caliber of player).  

Either that, or you think Rodgers really held us back last year?

No it's the expectation because he has 2 veteran RBs to shorten down and distance to go. It's the expectation because Gutekunst used 2 draft picks in 2020 to select Love over helping the current team. He's  special, that's what that move suggested. Love has had 3 years to prepare for this role. Burrows, Herbert, Tua, and Jalen Hurts had none. Hurts drafted after Love already established top tier QB besides Burrows and Herbert.  I expect better from Love than rookie level record. Year 2&3 from the 4-Herbert 9&10 wins. Hurts 8&14 wins. Tua 7&8 wins.  Burrows isn't fair to comp considering his sure fire generational QB taken 1-1, but 10&12.

Average year 2- 8.5 wins.

Year 3- 11 wins.  

I don't get why it should be comparable to Rodgers' 6wins just because 7 games lost were by 7 pts or less, with 5 being 3pts or less. Expected w/l was 8.9.  8.9wins in a 16game season is where the comp should be. Not the actual w/l.  So again 9 at 16games and 10 if 17games. 2007 they faced a schedule for a 1st place 13win team.  This season is following a 3rd place 8 win team.  Easier schedule. 

Jennings was Rodgers #1 WR a 3rd year 52nd pick in 2nd rd. And Driver. Nelson and Finley were rookies that season. Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson RBs with Kuhn FB.

Compare Watson-Jennings

Doubs-Driver

Musgrave/Reed-Nelson

Kraft-Finley

Jones/Dillon-Grant Jackson.

Seems to me Love has more weapons to play with better RBs again. He just doesn't have the veteran Driver but a higher drafted similar size Doubs.

I think Gutekunst should be removed from GM if the team doesn't win 7 or more games. With only Love suffering a 10game or more injury saving him from that expectation. He built this roster for Love's emergence,  not at all to surround Rodgers the last 3 seasons.

 

 

[SeaBass]

I'm optimistic on Love but man the odds are still more against him working out than in favor of him. I'm more than ok ignoring record this season I'm just looking for signs of progress and development. If they win 10 games, fantastic. Do I expect it? Hell no. Every single receiver on our roster is greener than the grass in June. They had the same running backs to shorten the field last year. Defenses are going to make Love beat them with his arm until he proves he can. I think folks need to be prepared for a losing season no matter how weak the schedule appears. Nobody is scared of playing against the Packers, that's for sure.

[brewcrewdue80]

On 5/23/2023 at 12:26 PM, SeaBass said:

I'm optimistic on Love but man the odds are still more against him working out than in favor of him. I'm more than ok ignoring record this season I'm just looking for signs of progress and development. If they win 10 games, fantastic. Do I expect it? Hell no. Every single receiver on our roster is greener than the grass in June. They had the same running backs to shorten the field last year. Defenses are going to make Love beat them with his arm until he proves he can. I think folks need to be prepared for a losing season no matter how weak the schedule appears. Nobody is scared of playing against the Packers, that's for sure.

The counter I'd have on the RBs to shorten the field, is Rodgers had the green light to run, pass option change Lafluer's(whoever) called play at his discretion.  He'd pass out wide to a WR when the O-line/RBs were in motion for the play to be a run. If the WR didn't catch the ball or break that first tackle, very little yards gained/none/lost yardarge. Had the running play happened, well Jones has a 5yards per carry avg. Dillon below 4 I believe. 

Expect it'll be different this season as Love won't be reading defenses anywhere as well Rodgers did to change the play without anyone knowing but him and the WR. Rbs will get the ball fed to them running more clock and more consistent pulling 4yards or more to shorten the field, even gaining 1st downs.

Expect this to lead to a bunch of play action utilizing the 2 TEs or over the top deep balls to Watson. He really does have the full array of weapons that Rodgers never had. 2 receiving TEs vs Kuhn plus Finley.

[Joseph Zarr]

OTA's this week. It appears Doubs and Love have built good chemistry this off-season as he is an early 'Go To' guy. And, reports coming out are glowing re: TE Luke Musgrave who is causing big headaches down the seam. Several comments of the "...he's just different than what we've had here..."

AND, obvious addendum: this is OTA's. The AFL of the NFL season. It's fun to track but we can generally toss this out the window. Lots of injured absences (No Douglas, Jaire, Kraft, Dubose, Bakhtiari etc)

[CheezWizHed]

4 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

OTA's this week. It appears Doubs and Love have built good chemistry this off-season as he is an early 'Go To' guy. And, reports coming out are glowing re: TE Luke Musgrave who is causing big headaches down the seam. Several comments of the "...he's just different than what we've had here..."

AND, obvious addendum: this is OTA's. The AFL of the NFL season. It's fun to track but we can generally toss this out the window. Lots of injured absences (No Douglas, Jaire, Kraft, Dubose, Bakhtiari etc)

Tis the season for "best shape of my life" and "finally got my head on straight" news articles to abound.  

Nothing to see here.. please disperse... 😉

 

[BrewerFan]

On 5/23/2023 at 12:26 PM, SeaBass said:

I'm optimistic on Love but man the odds are still more against him working out than in favor of him. I'm more than ok ignoring record this season I'm just looking for signs of progress and development. If they win 10 games, fantastic. Do I expect it? Hell no. Every single receiver on our roster is greener than the grass in June. They had the same running backs to shorten the field last year. Defenses are going to make Love beat them with his arm until he proves he can. I think folks need to be prepared for a losing season no matter how weak the schedule appears. Nobody is scared of playing against the Packers, that's for sure.

I completely agree. The schedule the Packers have, they could(should) win at least ~8 games and could get to 9 or even 10(so I guess we disagree a bit there)

But I'm not nearly as interested in the Packers win total as I am Love. We could win 10 games and be in a worse place than we were after Rodgers rookie season. You saw it quickly. You saw the discipline, you saw the big time throws, how elusive he was(I'm thinking of that NFCCG vs ATL where Rodgers was ducking free runners like he was Lamar).

You knew. The team wasn't there yet, but you knew.

That's all this year is about. Development and gauging who should be in the long term plans. If Love is the guy, the Packers are set up almost perfectly. 7-8 young targets with a TON of athletic ability, they can figure out who will separate themselves(Toure seems to be the guy the Packers FO mentions unprompted every time they talk about the team). Likely 2 1sts to hopefully fill out the team. Maybe a LT, keep building that DL, but they've got the answer to the big question.

That's the best case clearly.

The worst case is a Trey Lance type season. Not even in the sense that he suffers an injury, but just one in which they come out not knowing.

The 2024 draft will be the "Caleb Williams" draft. I see mocks with Maye going ahead of him, I don't buy it. 

So hopefully either proves he's the guy and will continue to improve or we figure out definitively he is not.

I believe in Jordan Love, HOWEVER, if he's just not the answer, I don't think making a huge investment in trading up to get him would be a bad idea. He's special. He's got a Mahomes type quality to him. Probably more athletic, so, so accurate and a QB in the Peyton, Luck, Lawrence mold...in that you know they're going to hit. It'll likely take a kings ransom(way too premature, but I'd guess both 1sts+2 more),

 

But that's truly putting the cart before the horse.

Either way, it'll be a fun year. See if Watson, Doubs, Musgrave, LVN, Tom can do, can Stokes get back to his rookie form, if a guy like Caleb Jones forces his way into the lineup.

Who knows...maybe Love come out and he IS like Mahomes and he sets the league on fire in a weak NFC...50 TDs, 12 picks, 5000+ yards. Is that asking too much?

[BrewerFan]

On 6/2/2023 at 3:29 PM, CheezWizHed said:

Tis the season for "best shape of my life" and "finally got my head on straight" news articles to abound.  

Nothing to see here.. please disperse... 😉

 

In something that's actually news...aside from the "best shape of my life," platitudes, Bakhtiari is taking reps in team activities. That's a pretty big deal. You'd assume if he wasn't absolutely 100%, they wouldn't risk him in off-season activities that...he really doesn't need to be a part of. Perhaps confirmation that Gutekunst was telling the truth when he said they have "zero long term concerns about Bahktiari's health). 

All the talk about Love's weapons is great, but we know there's no greater weapon for a young QB than a great OL. Bakh/Jenkins all the way back healthy, and then some combination of Tom, Myers, JRJ, NIjman, maybe Jones or Walker(Jones is apparently weighing around 350, so he MIGHT actually be in the best shape of his life, though I remain skeptical). 

 

A more simplified, strictly MLF offense, experienced OL, an Elite RB and then Dillon trying to redeem himself from last year and explosive young WRers, If the OL holds up, that's everything a young QB needs to get a fair shot...and frankly more than just about any other 1st year QB gets.

[CheezWizHed]

I am optimistic about the O-Line this year and also noted that Bakh has been running drills this year.  That is great to see.

I'm sort of "cheering" for a starting lineup of Bakh-Jenkins-Myers-Tom-Nijman.  I think this gives them the best "upside" starting OL.  Tom obviously needs to start somewhere.  Myers has the most to improve from last year, but also has the physical gifts to do so.  Nijman was great at LT, very good at RT (save for the last game when he was injured and benched).  That leaves us with Runyan.  Runyan is OK (though I'm more down on him than most), but is physically limited and probably maxed out at "average".  

[adambr2]

https://fansided.com/2023/06/13/packers-broncos-aaron-rodgers-trade/?amp&amp&utm_campaign=minutemedia&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=minutemedia

Boat missed so badly by Gute if this is true. 

[homer]

 

 

[BrewerFan]

13 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I am optimistic about the O-Line this year and also noted that Bakh has been running drills this year.  That is great to see.

I'm sort of "cheering" for a starting lineup of Bakh-Jenkins-Myers-Tom-Nijman.  I think this gives them the best "upside" starting OL.  Tom obviously needs to start somewhere.  Myers has the most to improve from last year, but also has the physical gifts to do so.  Nijman was great at LT, very good at RT (save for the last game when he was injured and benched).  That leaves us with Runyan.  Runyan is OK (though I'm more down on him than most), but is physically limited and probably maxed out at "average".  

I agree on Runyan. He's a solid starter. He's extremely reliable. Assignment sure. All those things have value, but he's as you said, physically limited.

I'd like to see Tom at C, Myers at G and then open the competition up at RT. 

Tom has the athletic ability you need at Center where Myers doesn't. Myers struggles to get to the next level, he can be a bit slow off the snap and allows defenders to cross his face, however, he is a mauler and I think he has enough athleticism to play OG.

But this is mostly about Tom. I think he could develop into a Kelce like Center. The way he comes out in the run game, he's smooth, quick and most importantly low. He just wasn't very strong last year.

At RT, Jones looked interesting, but it's an uphill battle for him in this offense as he's also not a great athlete, but he's so damn big, it's was incredible how he was walling guys off last year. Some were even solid veterans trying to make teams. 6'9 and 36 inch arms and he looked pretty smooth out there.

 

But the most likely scenario is Myers/JRJ and Tom pushing Nijman at RT.

Whatever they end up doing with Tom, I think he's going to be a cornerstone of this OL moving forward, and outside of Watson, the player from the last couple drafts who has the most upside for their respective positions. With very few true Superstars, I believe those two are the most likely to ascend to that level. 

And I just think you start with putting your best players at LT, C and RT, then fill in the Guards around that. But despite MLF saying Tom would get snaps at C, and both spots on the right side, I'm not sure he's gotten those snaps at Center yet which would mean they think more highly of Myers than I. Sean Rhyan is playing some Center. I think that could be interesting despite most people writing him off after an unproductive rookie year culminating in a suspension.

 

Whatever they choose to do, having their two top OL back to anchor the left side gives the whole group an enormous advantage over what they had going into last year or the end of '21 when both were out with injuries.

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, adambr2 said:

https://fansided.com/2023/06/13/packers-broncos-aaron-rodgers-trade/?amp&amp&utm_campaign=minutemedia&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=minutemedia

Boat missed so badly by Gute if this is true. 

That is an incredibly difficult situation to be in. To be coming off two straight years where you're SO close to the SB and a QB who's won back to back MVPs...but man, with the benefit of hindsight, that is a franchise altering. A Super Bowl win is forever, so it's hard to blame them too much, but that's almost a Herschel Walker type trade. 

I wonder if the Broncos had just waited ~10 days...once Adams was traded, if the Packers would have changed course? If things had just moved quicker, perhaps this gets done. That gives us two years, a couple of premium picks and still an extra 1st for the '24 draft IF Love doesn't work out.

 

I think Gutekunst did a nice job of squeezing out what compensation he could from NYJ...and again, I understand a SB is worth 2-3 1sts, but when you look back at an 8-9 season and you could end up with basically 2 2nd round picks and then the value of a late 3rd/early 4th to move up 2 spots, that's a stark contrast.

That's not even addressing the salary cap and how much healthier we'd be when it comes to that.

 

I can't crush Gutekunst for holding on, but when they lost Adams, then they turn around and move Rodgers a year later, it's definitely a move you'd love to have back.

[CheezWizHed]

On 6/13/2023 at 6:39 PM, adambr2 said:

https://fansided.com/2023/06/13/packers-broncos-aaron-rodgers-trade/?amp&amp&utm_campaign=minutemedia&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=minutemedia

Boat missed so badly by Gute if this is true. 

I could've bought Walmart, Microsoft, Google and Amazon before they exploded too.  Life would be very different if we could predict the future. 

[CheezWizHed]

23 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I agree on Runyan. He's a solid starter. He's extremely reliable. Assignment sure. All those things have value, but he's as you said, physically limited.

I'd like to see Tom at C, Myers at G and then open the competition up at RT. 

Tom has the athletic ability you need at Center where Myers doesn't. Myers struggles to get to the next level, he can be a bit slow off the snap and allows defenders to cross his face, however, he is a mauler and I think he has enough athleticism to play OG.

But this is mostly about Tom. I think he could develop into a Kelce like Center. The way he comes out in the run game, he's smooth, quick and most importantly low. He just wasn't very strong last year.

At RT, Jones looked interesting, but it's an uphill battle for him in this offense as he's also not a great athlete, but he's so damn big, it's was incredible how he was walling guys off last year. Some were even solid veterans trying to make teams. 6'9 and 36 inch arms and he looked pretty smooth out there.

 

But the most likely scenario is Myers/JRJ and Tom pushing Nijman at RT.

Whatever they end up doing with Tom, I think he's going to be a cornerstone of this OL moving forward, and outside of Watson, the player from the last couple drafts who has the most upside for their respective positions. With very few true Superstars, I believe those two are the most likely to ascend to that level. 

And I just think you start with putting your best players at LT, C and RT, then fill in the Guards around that. But despite MLF saying Tom would get snaps at C, and both spots on the right side, I'm not sure he's gotten those snaps at Center yet which would mean they think more highly of Myers than I. Sean Rhyan is playing some Center. I think that could be interesting despite most people writing him off after an unproductive rookie year culminating in a suspension.

 

Whatever they choose to do, having their two top OL back to anchor the left side gives the whole group an enormous advantage over what they had going into last year or the end of '21 when both were out with injuries.

Yeah, I thought about Tom at center and Myers at G, but it doesn't seem like there is any path to that with the team. But I disagree about his athletism.  He actually does well getting to the second level and leading the run.  I think his misses come more from instincts/lack of experience.  Maybe he is thinking too much and tends to whiff when he doesn't get a good start; especially on reach blocks. 

Maybe experience helps things slow down for him this year (basicallly having played just over one season).  Or maybe he'd be a much better guard when he really only has to focus on the person directly in front of him. 

[LouisEly]

Unless Tom has made significant strength gains in the offseason, I don't see him at center.  He struggled with anchoring against bigger DEs (Rams game) last year, much less NT/DTs.

[adambr2]

On 6/14/2023 at 10:30 PM, CheezWizHed said:

I could've bought Walmart, Microsoft, Google and Amazon before they exploded too.  Life would be very different if we could predict the future. 

True, but foresight is kind of part of the job of a GM, no?

[wallus]

I was told vehemently that Rodgers wouldn't have gotten a trade like that. Big opportunity missed by Gute.

Oops

[BrewerFan]

On 6/15/2023 at 7:09 PM, LouisEly said:

Unless Tom has made significant strength gains in the offseason, I don't see him at center.  He struggled with anchoring against bigger DEs (Rams game) last year, much less NT/DTs.

Strength is LESS of a priority at Center than it is at guard. Obviously you'd like maulers all over the place, but Centers are the smallest position on average along the OL. Yes, they have to deal with NTs...and they ALMOST never have to do it alone. You're getting a double on that NT from the Guard probably 90% of the time unless you're running away from him.

Athleticism is the priority over size/strength at C.

 

That's not to say Tom didn't need to make significant gains in terms of functional strength. It was an issue at any position along the OL. But he does look noticeably bigger this year. 

[BrewerFan]

On 6/16/2023 at 8:04 PM, adambr2 said:

True, but foresight is kind of part of the job of a GM, no?

That's a GMs job within reason.

Again, this looked much different a week later when they couldn't convince Adams to stay. 

-Defense finished outstanding.

-Hired one of the top STC in the NFL

-You were returning the #1 WRer and back to back MVP

They have AMPLE reason to believe they would as good or better heading into last year.

 

I think it's fair to wonder what could have been now that we don't have Rodgers and see what happened last year, but trading away Rodgers at that point, when he was still talking about playing a few more years and wanted to finish his career in GB, it's easy to see why they didn't do it as well.

It's even easier(not) to go back a year when the offer was Jeudy,+ Surtain(their 1st that year)+ 2 more 1sts+3 2nds/3rd round picks.
That's a superstar in Surtain, an elite #2, maybe a #1 in Jeudy with 4 years left and 5 more picks.

But when you think you can win a Super Bowl...which they had every reason to believe at the time assuming Bakh would be back and that core...

I don't think you can predict lingering injuries, new injuries(Gary, Stokes, Bakh's appendectomy)...Barry seemingly figuring it out and then reverting again, etc...

 

What's more, how much of the fanbase do you alienate? You lost due to STs(and of course poor Rodgers play, but directly due to STs failures). You were better than the Rams that season, the SB champs. 

 

We'd be saying Gutekunst doesn't care about winning Super Bowls, he's more worried about his ego. I'd also submit, particularly 2 years ago when the best deal was floated, it would have been very detrimental to Love's development. He wasn't close to being ready to step in at that point.

 

But it sure as hell stings when you think you could have Surtain, Jeudy, Charlie Cross, you still likely end up with Watson or you only have to give up a ~3rd at most to move up. And you're still left with a 1st+2 more day 2 picks.

That sucks, but again, it's tough to blame Gutekunst for not pulling the trigger.

[BrewerFan]

On 6/14/2023 at 10:38 PM, CheezWizHed said:

Yeah, I thought about Tom at center and Myers at G, but it doesn't seem like there is any path to that with the team. But I disagree about his athletism.  He actually does well getting to the second level and leading the run.  I think his misses come more from instincts/lack of experience.  Maybe he is thinking too much and tends to whiff when he doesn't get a good start; especially on reach blocks. 

Maybe experience helps things slow down for him this year (basicallly having played just over one season).  Or maybe he'd be a much better guard when he really only has to focus on the person directly in front of him. 

It doesn't appear thus far that's the direction they'll go, but remember when Linsley lost the job in back to back years, then started due to injuries to...Even Dietrich Smith IIRC.

Turned out to be the best thing that happened to them. 

As for Myers, he can get to the end level...vs slower NT or if they're shaded on his right shoulder and they're running that outsize zone the other way. But he's rarely beating DL to their spot. If you're talking about when they come out with the DTs playing a 3i, sure, he can chip and get to the next level, but I'm talking about beating his name to the spot, sealing and then going.

 

Remember, this is a guy who was projected by some as 4th-6th rounder at Center due to his limited athleticism. Put when he locks onto a guy, he's more than capable of just planting a guy.

 

Now...a big physical Center works great in...Dallas or Philly, but in a scheme where you need really athletic Centers such as our ZBS, that pick never made sense to be. Myers over Creed is like a...Sternberger over McClaurin type pick...if they were both WRers and one was the consensus #1 play at his position, scored a 10.0  RAS. There were concerns about Humphrey's ability to make calls(I think that's why he was available when he was).

 

Maybe we'll pivot a bit this year. Especially if a guy like Jones works his way in there. More iso type FB, double teams at the point and just more physical. That'd play to his strength. Or maybe as Stenovich recently said, Tom WILL compete at all 3 spots, C, RG and RT. 

 

Or maybe Myers with Jenkins on one side, maybe he'll just play better. Just looking at Tom long term though, if he's not a Center, then his future position has to be LT or RT. Otherwise it seems like a bit of a waste to stick such a great athlete at RG.

 

I hope you're right though, he just needs to play more consistently. It's not like he hasn't made some highlight level blocks. It's just a matter of how consistent he is.