Packers 2023 Discussion Thread

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

Because we won't need to move up?  If we can't get healthy, we might be top 10.

Hell, I might still trade up! If you could get Fashanu, I'd do it(but I'd settle for the next best).

If the Packers did this...I actually would storm Gutey's office! I'm convinced he wouldn't be so foolish.

https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/nfl/chicago-bears/bears-news/2024-nfl-mock-draft-bears-pick-qb-caleb-williams-with-no-1-pick/509725/

 

We need a safety. But not that bad. And Savage may be having a nice bounce back. But I'm still willing to give up that early 2nd to move up in this scenario. It's just too important. I'd much sooner try and get by with Rudy Ford and Savage than Tom and Walker or Jones. 

And again, with Walker, I think you kill two birds...

[BrewerFan]

Did anyone notice that Bakh underwent surgery and then has another surgery planned to finally alleviate the issues he's been having with Cartlidge?

THIS surgery(not the one he had, the next one) will allow him to continue playing and he really wants to keep playing in GB. He was practicing and they were planning on him playing for ATL until the day of, but not he's likely out for the year...but he definitely wants to come back?

 

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2023/9/28/23895182/green-bay-packers-news-david-bakhtiari-injury-update-knee-surgery-salary-cap-dead-cap-contract

 

You know what? I'll welcome him back. He needs to sign a 1 year deal with a veteran minimum and we'll add incentives. That's it. Otherwise, he can go to and join his body on the turf at Met Life.

 

I'll say, it's that much more insane that this guy has been so good in the few games he has played given apparently how bad his knee is hurt, but he can prove how much he wants to play for the Packers with his wallet. You got 3 years 72M and you earned that based on previous performance. Now, play '24 based on your previous performance.  

[adambr2]

My overanalysis on yesterdays game after reflecting:

Have to keep things in perspective a little bit and realize that 2-2 with some ups and down is about where I expected us to be right now. I don't have super high expectations from this season. Jordan looks like he could be the guy but he has a long way to go and they have a long way to go around him. He looks comfortable and decisive with a clean pocket, but when he has to improvise, it usually isn't pretty. 

On that note, it's clear they again shot their shot on Bahk's knee and are paying dearly for it. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times...come on now, guys. Move on. It's a sunk cost now for this season, so you just make the best of it and get what you can out of him, but you have to go into this offseason with all intent to cut ties. Tackle will be right up there with safety on the draft priority list. I expect a mid 1st and a couple early to mid 2nd's, so they should be able to address some needs. 

The running game also isn't where it needs to be for this offense to be successful. It's pretty clear without a healthy Aaron Jones they just don't have any talent in the backfield. I can see the possibility of a 2nd round investment in a RB next spring, provided it isn't another A.J. Dillon. 

Obviously this horse is dead, but Joe Barry is so bad. You can win with Joe Barry, but it requires a perfectly executed game by a talented defense to do so. Having Jaire out is not ideal, but Barry does nothing schematically to improvise if he's shorthanded to try to put the starting 11 in the best possible position to succeed. This man has SIX ...again, a SIX season sample size of being an unsuccessful defensive coordinator. 

Beyond Barry, it was a pretty poorly coached game by the entire staff. Coming out completely flat two weeks in a row isn't a good look for MLF and his preparation, and this is not a pattern that just started showing up this year. Bicassia's units failed over and over again, there's no getting around it. Constant flags on special teams. Nixon costing us constant field position with poor kickoff return decisions. Walker not staying disciplined and committing a horrible penalty that iced the game. A near turnover on a botched punt return. The mistakes were numerous. We are not good enough to constantly give away yardage on the simple mental things that we can control. 

Two winnable games coming up against the Raiders and Broncos, so it's not unrealistic to think they could come out of them 4-2, but there's so much to clean up. I'd like to think they come off of the mini-bye against the Raiders well-prepared and executing well, but historical precedent with this staff tells me that that isn't necessarily going to be the case. 

 

[adambr2]

7 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Did anyone notice that Bakh underwent surgery and then has another surgery planned to finally alleviate the issues he's been having with Cartlidge?

THIS surgery(not the one he had, the next one) will allow him to continue playing and he really wants to keep playing in GB. He was practicing and they were planning on him playing for ATL until the day of, but not he's likely out for the year...but he definitely wants to come back?

 

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2023/9/28/23895182/green-bay-packers-news-david-bakhtiari-injury-update-knee-surgery-salary-cap-dead-cap-contract

 

You know what? I'll welcome him back. He needs to sign a 1 year deal with a veteran minimum and we'll add incentives. That's it. Otherwise, he can go to and join his body on the turf at Met Life.

 

I'll say, it's that much more insane that this guy has been so good in the few games he has played given apparently how bad his knee is hurt, but he can prove how much he wants to play for the Packers with his wallet. You got 3 years 72M and you earned that based on previous performance. Now, play '24 based on your previous performance.  

He's got "gets released and takes a sweetheart deal with the Jets to go play with Aaron in '24" written all over him. And he'll probably end up playing 15 games there, too. 

[homer]

No way he goes and plays on turf for half a season

[GAME05]

I assumed Nixon was only taking it out when he otherwise shouldn't have because we were down by a lot so soon and we were hoping for the big play. If we were tied that's one thing, but isn't it a more reasonable risk to take when you're down three scores?

Is Dillon really that bad or is it more that he's strictly a N/S runner and he's stuck hoping Newman and Myers hold their blocks? I couldn't find any Jones vs. Dillon YPC average when running between tackles. Two years ago Dillon danced a lot and now he never does, so I wonder if he also suffers a lot from the coaching staff trying to change too much about him. I think he'll see more success as a RB eventually, just not on the Packers.

[kestrel79]

Just got done watching some 2020 Dillon highlights. He just looks bigger and slower now. Doesn't break as many tackles. I'm sure the run blocking isn't as good this season so far than years past but maybe that whole Door County thing went to his head and he's eating good in the neighborhood.

Nixon was awesome last year what happened? Is the blocking just not as good this year so far? Just looks completely different.

[BrewerFan]

 

1 minute ago, GAME05 said:

I assumed Nixon was only taking it out when he otherwise shouldn't have because we were down by a lot so soon and we were hoping for the big play. If we were tied that's one thing, but isn't it a more reasonable risk to take when you're down three scores?

Is Dillon really that bad or is it more that he's strictly a N/S runner and he's stuck hoping Newman and Myers hold their blocks? I couldn't find any Jones vs. Dillon YPC average when running between tackles. Two years ago Dillon danced a lot and now he never does, so I wonder if he also suffers a lot from the coaching staff trying to change too much about him. I think he'll see more success as a RB eventually, just not on the Packers.

Nixon took it out early and often and from 7-8 yards deep. To his credit, he usually got it to the ~22 or so, but...there are SO many holding and block in the back penalties just normally, it's a bad call just in general. A yard or two deep...fine. You were an AP. But you can't keep forcing it. 

Now your 2nd post is actually a decent post. I don't need to see YPC between the tackles to know that Jones is a lot better(I would think we'd agree). But Jones is special and surprisingly strong runner inside. 

Dillon has just gotten North and South more this year and he's lowered his shoulder to try and gain additional yards and Henry wouldn't be getting more yards in those cases. 

I will allow that last year Dillon tried to bounce it more and tried to be more elusive. He hasn't really gotten that chance this year. So sure, there's a chance it's just terrible OL play in front of him in Myers, Newman and then really just decent G play at RG. 

On top of that, Tom is not a RT that moves guys. He stays in front of guys and he seals the edge...he doesn't move guys like...Darnell Wright in Chicago for example. That's why I thought(when Bakh was expected to be healthy) Center was his best position.

So maybe thats' part of it.

[homer]

Nixon was very close a couple of times to breaking long runs. I am more than fine with him bringing it out if he's five yards deep. 

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, adambr2 said:

My overanalysis on yesterdays game after reflecting:

Have to keep things in perspective a little bit and realize that 2-2 with some ups and down is about where I expected us to be right now. I don't have super high expectations from this season. Jordan looks like he could be the guy but he has a long way to go and they have a long way to go around him. He looks comfortable and decisive with a clean pocket, but when he has to improvise, it usually isn't pretty. 

On that note, it's clear they again shot their shot on Bahk's knee and are paying dearly for it. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times...come on now, guys. Move on. It's a sunk cost now for this season, so you just make the best of it and get what you can out of him, but you have to go into this offseason with all intent to cut ties. Tackle will be right up there with safety on the draft priority list. I expect a mid 1st and a couple early to mid 2nd's, so they should be able to address some needs. 

The running game also isn't where it needs to be for this offense to be successful. It's pretty clear without a healthy Aaron Jones they just don't have any talent in the backfield. I can see the possibility of a 2nd round investment in a RB next spring, provided it isn't another A.J. Dillon. 

Obviously this horse is dead, but Joe Barry is so bad. You can win with Joe Barry, but it requires a perfectly executed game by a talented defense to do so. Having Jaire out is not ideal, but Barry does nothing schematically to improvise if he's shorthanded to try to put the starting 11 in the best possible position to succeed. This man has SIX ...again, a SIX season sample size of being an unsuccessful defensive coordinator. 

Beyond Barry, it was a pretty poorly coached game by the entire staff. Coming out completely flat two weeks in a row isn't a good look for MLF and his preparation, and this is not a pattern that just started showing up this year. Bicassia's units failed over and over again, there's no getting around it. Constant flags on special teams. Nixon costing us constant field position with poor kickoff return decisions. Walker not staying disciplined and committing a horrible penalty that iced the game. A near turnover on a botched punt return. The mistakes were numerous. We are not good enough to constantly give away yardage on the simple mental things that we can control. 

Two winnable games coming up against the Raiders and Broncos, so it's not unrealistic to think they could come out of them 4-2, but there's so much to clean up. I'd like to think they come off of the mini-bye against the Raiders well-prepared and executing well, but historical precedent with this staff tells me that that isn't necessarily going to be the case. 

 

Edit-I do a stream of consciousness thing when writing and they get away from me.
Summary-Mostly agree. OL=bad. Run game=Bad. Barry-very Bad.
Walker, Gary=Great
Team, about where I expected except the OL which is again hurt and ruining everything.
MLF=Not bad, can't overcome that type of dominance at the LOS when Detroit is daring you to beat them with 11 players within 10 yards of the LOS, you have Watson and you don't have time to let him get open.

 

 

-I agree, this was always going to be an up and down season. Feels like the Packers did everything they could to put a good OL in front of Love, but...things just keep breaking down. Jenkins is a huge loss. It felt like they were worse inside than the OTs were last night, but we'll see when they grade it out.

-I think Love is fine when he has to improvise...as a young QB. But when the pocket is collapsing every play...and you can't bail out because you have DEs who are rushing wide, there's just not much to do. He's inconsistent there. The two point vs the Saints last week to Toure and he's made some nice plays getting out of the pocket. Even the left handed push pass was pretty big and gained some yards.

-Joe Barry is terrible. Again, he just comes out and plays a preseason, bland, vanilla defense and his entire scheme is our guy can beat yours and that's actually been working...vs poor OLs and with Jaire on the field, Quay and Gary dominating.

 

-I'll push back on the "coming out flat." I don't think they did come out flat in either half. I think they just came out and got their asses whooped. But the first couple series, they were getting off blocks, they were battling. They got a pick on the first play. 

The defense had breakdowns, but two huge plays given up by Douglas. One in which he tried jumping a route in cover 3. You just cannot do that. You're responsible for the deep 3rd. The other in man, he had Laporta in a blanket and Goff made a perfect throw. 

 

But it wasn't an effort issue. Guys were flying around. Wyatt was making tackles 10 yards downfield, Walker was...everywhere last night. He's been outstanding at flying around, filling the gap and been a sure tackler, great in the open field. 

STs-I'm still not dinging Walker too much. 30-17, I don't think we're coming back. Nixon can't be bringing it out 8 yards deep every time. You're giving the KO team the best of both worlds. They don't have to try and kick it high and short to try and entice you into bringing it out, you just do it regardless. And I'd guess there are penalties on about 20% of returns. It's just not each to block guys who are changing course constantly and there's holding on every punt(I know we're talking about KRs) as the gunners are getting mugged out there. 

-Reed trying to pick it up on the 2nd bounce...you're taught never to do that, but it bounced right up to him. A "clean" bounce. He just took his eyes off it. I get what he was trying to do. 

 

 

Bottom line, I can't figure out exactly what Love IS, only what he could be after 4 games. And I can see that he's got Pro Bowl or EVEN All Pro potential. Potential is so often unreached though and we're going to get beat up vs good DLs.

Defensively, I can see what we are. We're a much better, more physical team that's faster, flies around and hits players and we're also CONSTANTLY out-schemed. All the rules favor the offense. ONE play last night I saw Colby Wooden drop on a zone blitz and McDuffie coming flying in giving us numbers.

I saw that ONCE. 

Otherwise it was Detroit with that big, strong OL and one of the best young players in the game in Sewell just washing away whoever was in front of him and then usually taking out another player at the next level and the defense by the 30th carry just getting wiped away and the group tackling was just bad.

 

 

I believe in the foundation of what this team has built. I really do. I think the last two drafts have been outstanding. 

-Love was ALWAYS going to struggle and have his ups and downs. But at least his ups at this point have been...VERY high level. The throw to Reed last night as the 3rd Q expired. I don't care if it did or didn't(I've been told...I think but you @adambr2that it wasn't close)...but he still had to make that throw and Detroit was still covering. 

The question aside from the OL is can he clean up those quick outs where he it's hitting them quite in time?

-The Two INTs. The first was just bad. If it's not tipped, that's a ball that(I believe it was to Doubs as well as the 2nd one) is going to at best get him rocked and will probably be broken up. 
The 2nd one, I have more understanding for. @CheezWizHedwas right, he did come back to Doubs late, but from his vantage point, he's watching Doubs run his route, pocket is collapsing and if he has another .3 tenths of a second, maybe he reads Doubs going upfield behind the D and hits it, but he threw the ball to where Doubs was supposed to be when he let it go.

 

You won't fix either side of the ball until you make another round of significant investments into the OL and defensively until you just fire Joe Barry. 

Lets hope that...I guess Jenkins comes back, we continue to improve at OT with Walker, Tom, get through the season with Myers and JRJ and then we need just massive changes next year to that OL first and foremost. 

Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy. Both look like very good QBs. They're not more talented than Jordan Love. Justin Fields looks like absolute trash(and so many before him) and it's because they never had a chance due to their OLs. 

 

Bakh-I'll bring him back if he restructures, waives the 9.5M roster bonus, drops the 10.7M base to a vet minimum and we add that money back in incentives. See how much he really wants to rehab and play for the Packers(to be fair, I do think he WANTS to and is trying, but you can't pay him the remaining 19M hoping at this point if that's not obvious to everyone). 

 

I've already said what I'd do in the off-season.
1-Move up for the OT that you want or you're convinced is a franchise LT. There are maybe 10 who at this point look like they could be that guy, but if it's Alt or whoever.

2-The Dolphins run a similar offense. Spend the money to steal their center...who is 26 and playing at an elite level in a similar system. They'll be 40M over the cap and Tua hasn't been paid yet. 

3-Move Walker to Guard.

4-RB/DL/S in the draft

But none of this transition to Love matters is he's getting beat up. Rodgers had 18 years worth of playing time to process and get the ball out quick and it still wasn't good enough. Fix it for your young guy. I loved LVN. I'd love Darnell Wright better, but moving forward, that HAS to be their top priority, right?

 

[BrewerFan]

14 minutes ago, homer said:

Nixon was very close a couple of times to breaking long runs. I am more than fine with him bringing it out if he's five yards deep. 

Yes, he got some nice returns. I think the closest he came to breaking one was on the PR, but...lets assume you're right. The first few series, we're getting our teeth kicked in and now he's taking it out 5-8 yards deep and there are a couple holding calls and we start a series on our own ~10. 

 

I guess you could argue at that point you need a big momentum changer and he's an All Pro KRer and he should be given the benefit of the doubt, but by the time it started to open up, the game was pretty much over. 

[homer]

11 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Yes, he got some nice returns. I think the closest he came to breaking one was on the PR, but...lets assume you're right. The first few series, we're getting our teeth kicked in and now he's taking it out 5-8 yards deep and there are a couple holding calls and we start a series on our own ~10. 

 

I guess you could argue at that point you need a big momentum changer and he's an All Pro KRer and he should be given the benefit of the doubt, but by the time it started to open up, the game was pretty much over. 

The holding calls are a separate issue from whether or not he should be running kicks out of the end zone I think the risk/reward is worth it for a guy of his caliber. 

[BrewerFan]

2 minutes ago, homer said:

The holding calls are a separate issue from whether or not he should be running kicks out of the end zone I think the risk/reward is worth it for a guy of his caliber. 

I disagree. There are SO many of them called on returns, you HAVE to factor that in, plus you're 5+ yards deep, so you need a 30 yard return just to break even. You're putting your offense in a hole when they're having enough trouble. Now if they kick it to the GL or a yard or 2 deep, sure. 

Lets also not confuse Nixon for Hester. They've changed the rules to make it advantageous to not return the ball and he had...maybe 5 really good returns last year that made him an AP? Minnesota a few vs Miami and then vs Philly when we were getting blown out. 

[LouisEly]

I'd move up for an OT in the first if all it costs is their second 2nd rounder since they have two.  Anything more than that is too much to give up.  Pro Bowl OTs have been found late in the first and 2nd rounds, and the team has too many needs to give up multiple high picks.

Whether or not the first INT was a good throw is debatable - tough catches while being hit have been made - but what no INT does is at least flip field position ~60 yards the other way with a punt.  Maybe the Lions score on that possession, maybe they don't.  Love makes a better decision in the 4th and avoids the INT and it's a close game.  Take 7 away from the Lions and it's 27-20 and GB has a legit shot with 4 minutes left in the 4th.  Walker doesn't get that BS penalty on the FG and it's 23-20 and GB can tie w/a field goal.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

I'd move up for an OT in the first if all it costs is their second 2nd rounder since they have two.  Anything more than that is too much to give up.  Pro Bowl OTs have been found late in the first and 2nd rounds, and the team has too many needs to give up multiple high picks.

Whether or not the first INT was a good throw is debatable - tough catches while being hit have been made - but what no INT does is at least flip field position ~60 yards the other way with a punt.  Maybe the Lions score on that possession, maybe they don't.  Love makes a better decision in the 4th and avoids the INT and it's a close game.  Take 7 away from the Lions and it's 27-20 and GB has a legit shot with 4 minutes left in the 4th.  Walker doesn't get that BS penalty on the FG and it's 23-20 and GB can tie w/a field goal.

Penei Sewell was the player who changed the Lions franchise more than any other player...IMO.

Bakhtiari is the player who HURT the Packers in '20, '21, '22 and now this year more than any other. Losing him.

You CAN get an All Pro in any round. Your chances obviously improve the further up you go. I won't know what the Packers draft grades will be, but if you have hypothetically, Fashanu and Alt graded MUCH higher than whoever is 3rd, then you might have to give up more.

Plus, what real needs to they have outside that OL?

OT/C. I think Walker moves inside if you do this. 

And then Safety is a position you obviously could use, but you're much, much more likely to find a safety in the 2nd/3rd who can play than a premier LT.

They'll have 10 picks(an extra 2nd, 5th and 2 6ths in comp picks). You've got a ton of cap room coming available in '24 and even more in '25. 

I'm doing whatever I can after drafting Jordan Love and going through EVERYTHING they've gone through the past 4 years with Rodgers, you have to do whatever you need to in order to give Love the best chance at success. 

If it's a 1st+2nd and 2nd in '25, I don't care. That position is too important to hope you can develop someone with a much lower grade.

[LouisEly]

Bakh, Jenkins, Alexander, Campbell, and Stokes were out from the get-go.

Watson and Jones limited.

Musgrave gets knocked out with a concussion,  JRJ gets knocked out with a sprained ankle.

That's 9 starters who were out, knocked out, or limited, not including Tom who was questionable going in.  No wonder they didn't look good.

[Jopal78]

On 9/29/2023 at 9:17 AM, adambr2 said:

He's got "gets released and takes a sweetheart deal with the Jets to go play with Aaron in '24" written all over him. And he'll probably end up playing 15 games there, too. 

No team is going to give a 31+ year old who has missed 38 of 51 games (‘21-‘23) with 5 operations on a knee any sort of guarantee. I doubt Bakhtiari puts his body through the grinder for the veteran minimum. (Remember Urlacher refused a 2.5 million dollar deal from the Bears as not worth the punishment to his body,  defacto ending his career). Thus, despite Bakhtiari saying he’s not retiring, it’s likely the end of the line. 

[homer]

4 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Bakh, Jenkins, Alexander, Campbell, and Stokes were out from the get-go.

Watson and Jones limited.

Musgrave gets knocked out with a concussion,  JRJ gets knocked out with a sprained ankle.

That's 9 starters who were out, knocked out, or limited, not including Tom who was questionable going in.  No wonder they didn't look good.

And it's not like their replacements were seasoned vets for the most part - particularly the receiving corps. If they don't get the penalty on the FG and get points in the red zone instead of the turnover...

[BrewerFan]

14 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Bakh, Jenkins, Alexander, Campbell, and Stokes were out from the get-go.

Watson and Jones limited.

Musgrave gets knocked out with a concussion,  JRJ gets knocked out with a sprained ankle.

That's 9 starters who were out, knocked out, or limited, not including Tom who was questionable going in.  No wonder they didn't look good.

Yes, we had injuries(Detroit had injuries as well by the way). That was not the difference. We were physically outmatched on the OL and on the DL, front 7, that's just a schematic issue. You were in Nickel on the Goaline with NOBODY in the C gap for Detroit's final TD. That's...so ridiculous. We also pulled out a couple zone blitzes on 3rd and 4th and short. I think Colby Wooden dropped on a 3rd and Van Ness on a 4th(the latter not to much of an issue as OLBers drop). But Barry was so bad, a new DC can fix the defense. They have so much talent there, that is the solve to make this defense at least in the top 5-7. 

 

-Jaire...that hurt because Barry plays like such a delicate little flower with him out. Valentine showed enough coverage ability and the 1 big throw he gave up, he was in PERFECT position, just got beat. So Barry went soft. 

-JRJ played and finished the game

 

I think the problem here is even if you were healthy, this team was simply overwhelming. It's happened before, but the problem is, this team came out playing hard. Firing off the ball, they were stopping the run early. This wasn't a Packers@Chargers breakdown where they just looked off.

This was more like the Packers vs the Broncos from 2015. Packers were 2.5 point favorites on the road and they went up against Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, a young Shaq Barrett, a good interior pass rush and the Packers just got pushed around. 

 

 

So I'm taking Bakh off the board. He's no longer an injured player we can use as an "if he played." He's not someone you should ever count on again and IF he does come back and figure it out, good for him. He's said he wants to come back and he'd like to play in GB. Well...fine. They can bring him back on a cheap deal. Urlacher was a HOFer, he's not. If this ACTUALLY fixes the knee, cool. I am not a doctor, I don't know what issue you could have that fixes the "Cartlidge" issue that the last 3 surgeries after the ACL didn't, but...maybe. It's no longer an ACL. 

-Stokes- He suffered two very serious injuries. It's not like he was a question. The question is IF he'll start practicing. The old, "The Packers are hopeful." 
-Jones/Watson- They played ~half the snaps and what difference would it have made it they were good to go all game? They didn't have time to get the ball to Watson. Jones had NO running lanes. 
-Tom played. And he played pretty well. He's just not QUITE physical enough vs the Bosa, Hutchingson types just yet, but competitive. 
-Musgrave got a concussion during the game.
-Jenkins was out, that's a big one, but you CAN'T be that weak behind him. If Sean Rhyan is that bad, that's a problem. Meaning if Royce Newman who was blocking air is the BEST you can do...the hell are we doing? Bring Jordan up from the PS. 

 

I don't know, Detroit had injuries. Houston who had 8.5 sacks in the last 8 games last year was out.
-Decker and Ragnow were both playing injured, Decker was out last week, Ragnow was injured this week.
-Jameson Williams, a ELITE talent is out with a suspension and will be coming back. 
Their starting RG was out.
-Starting safety and one of their better players.
-Paschal the young 2nd Rd DE who's a very athletic player and came up BIG in the KC game with a couple pressures, but especially vs the run, he was out. 
-CJ Gardner-Johnson a really good CB/Safety was out. 

They lost guys as well in game. But that's at least 6 quality starters and some depth. 

But what they had was a Center who was making the blocks he needed to. He was sealing off the big guys and at least getting in their way and a RT who was just moving the OL. That's a dominant OL. When we had Bakh, we could mitigate any weakness you had on the other side(Hutchinson is a bit too physical for Tom at this point). You could use a back to chip or just know where the pressure was coming from.

 

 

I watched the UGA game today and made a point to watch Sedrick Van-Pran which is now I think Sederick Van-Gerald. Whoever, he's the #1 ranked C and it's a HUGE gap in the rankings. He's the 44th overall prospect, next is ~130. But he looked like he'd slide in perfectly. 

I watched Alt vs the OSU team with two prospects projected to go in Day1 or Day2 and he dominated them and then kept getting on LBers. 

The bigger problem was definitely the IOL. Newman and Myers would get beat SO bad, now Love is dropping 10 yards trying to buy time and the OTs are not blocking for that and it blows the whole unit up.

 

 

Bottom line-I think we can fix the Defense with 1 big move(Defensive Coordinator) and then a couple smaller moves. As smaller moves.

I don't think we can fix the offense(in a way that we're a competitive team) without a SIGNIFICANT investment in the LT/C position. 2 extremely valuable positions. And I don't think you can try to do this over 2 seasons or with modest improvements. We should approach this off-season the way the KC Chiefs approached the off-season where they added Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Orlando Brown, Trey Smith. That was a 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th for Brown and a 2nd. Humphrey was a 2nd. Thuney got a 5/80M deal, they feel into Smith in the 5th rd.

For the Packers, if the Buccs can't make a deal with Wirfs work, I'd give up 2 1sts and get him signed. Then I'd come back, trade up to get the UGA Center if he's available at the end of the 1st round. I think that gives you an elite OL as you would have...hypothetically, Tom/Jenkins/Van Pran/Walker/Wirfs. Wirfs could play either side, he's been an elite RT, Tom seems more suited to LT. 

Walker would be able to play G.

OR you identify which OTs are good enough to be franchise OTs in the draft(maybe there's 5 and you only need to move up a few spots, maybe there are 3 and you need to move up more) and then you sign Connor Williams from the Dolphins, a 26 year old elite Center in the same scheme the Packers play. The Packers will have salary cap room again and Miami is ~40M over the cap and they will need to pay Tua, especially if he carries on.

 

Get those two positions locked down and you've fixed the talent game up front. We're so young elsewhere with half our roster coming from the last two drafts or UDFAs and all that dead cap falling off this year and then even more in the next two years, we can afford to spend again on positions of need.

More importantly we can't afford NOT to. We can't afford to put Justin Love in the position that Justin Fields has been in where he's just being abused.

 

As it stands, the type of absolute bloodbath it'd be if we had to play the Eagles or 49ers right now? Pressure up the middle with overwhelming talent, off the edge? We're not competitive and your OL sets the tone. If you're soft up front...you're goin to keep getting your ass kicked by a team that just rushes 4 like Detroit or a team that has less talent(Detroit BTW, not the most talented up front, one dominant player, Philly has 4-5, SF has Hargrave and Bosa who are both ELITE).

I'm sorry to ramble on so long, but there's no way the Packers can delude themselves into thinking they're competitive. Worse OLs have caused us to lose to TB, SF...and that was with Aaron friggin' Rodgers at an MVP level. Asking MORE of Jordan Love is truly the definition of insanity. 

Priority 
1-OT
1A-OC and it's a small gap.
1AA-Fire Barry







-Anything else, they can address in the later rounds or with stop gaps, and no other needs are nearly as big.
(This assumes, obviously Rashan Gary also gets signed). 
 

 

[BrewerFan]

15 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

No team is going to give a 31+ year old who has missed 38 of 51 games (‘21-‘23) with 5 operations on a knee any sort of guarantee. I doubt Bakhtiari puts his body through the grinder for the veteran minimum. (Remember Urlacher refused a 2.5 million dollar deal from the Bears as not worth the punishment to his body,  defacto ending his career). Thus, despite Bakhtiari saying he’s not retiring, it’s likely the end of the line. 

I think when he said "sweetheart deal," he meant Bakh would sign for relatively cheap.

But honestly, as close as they are, I don't think he's playing in NY next year. He's talked about being the "face of the franchise now." I think he has to know if he wants to come back and play and earn his way to Canton(which would take 3 more good years...which is possible if the mythical "cartilage issue is address," as they said) GB is his best chance. 

I just rambled for about 25,000 words effectively saying this, but you can't count on him, if you do it again, you're absolute morons. If he comes back and he's really good, then...I would presume the player we acquire by whatever means we choose to do so, trade or draft, would be capable of playing both RT and LT. The best like Sewell are. Or Wirfs in a bit of a dream scenario that TB actually trades him. 
Then you're in just great shape with Bakh at LT, whoever at RT, Tom can play C/G, Jenkins at G and you'd have depth. 

 

I think he's playing in GB next year if he's playing at all and I think he's either cut and re-signed or he simply restructures, drops the 9.5M roster bonus, his base salary from 10.7 to ~4M and they load it up with incentives for games played and snaps. He is still good enough that if BY CHANCE they fix the knee, he's an elite LT....which is really the shocking part and a sign of what we've actually lost in him. What a core piece of the team. How can he come back, dominate NFL pass rushers vs Detroit or Chicago and then just be done for the season in both cases? He is right. If he just sucked, it'd be a lot easier to move on. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Packers 2-2 and could easily be 3-1 or 1-3.  Two very winnable games coming up over a stretch that also hopefully gets some key guys back healthy and able to go the full game.

Lions are clearly the better squad now, but Packers have a legit shot at a playoff berth in the NFL with their schedule, and that's all you can hope for in this type of transition season with such a young team.

let's see where they are when the calendar hits November...

 

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Packers 2-2 and could easily be 3-1 or 1-3.  Two very winnable games coming up over a stretch that also hopefully gets some key guys back healthy and able to go the full game.

Lions are clearly the better squad now, but Packers have a legit shot at a playoff berth in the NFL with their schedule, and that's all you can hope for in this type of transition season with such a young team.

let's see where they are when the calendar hits November...

 

I wrote a lot...because I'm not concise.

I'm VERY excited about this team. I think they could win 10 games. Those weren't "the sky is falling" posts. But they WERE the foundation is crumbling posts. The foundation is the OL. You have all the fixtures and I think the QB, the skill players, the defensive players(maybe a position or two could use some help). 

There's just so much talent, but the OL is just such a massive weakness in comparison to the rest of the team and it's not going to fix itself and I always thought Rodgers covered up for them. Myers isn't the answer and Walker could be a solid LT, but I would aim for much higher.

 

But I still like this team and I'm excited about this team. And to be clear, the year KC went nuts and spent a ton of money, traded a bunch of picks and then used picks on the OL...they were coming off a SB appearance in which they lost to TB 31-9(we lost 31-26) because TB had such a great pass rush and both of us had such weaknesses at OT it got exposed. So it's not like I'm saying it's some tear down and rebuild. I'm saying I think they're two really good players away from solving pretty much all their problems(and a good DC of course). 

[Fear The Chorizo]

18 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I wrote a lot...because I'm not concise.

I'm VERY excited about this team. I think they could win 10 games. Those weren't "the sky is falling" posts. But they WERE the foundation is crumbling posts. The foundation is the OL. You have all the fixtures and I think the QB, the skill players, the defensive players(maybe a position or two could use some help). 

There's just so much talent, but the OL is just such a massive weakness in comparison to the rest of the team and it's not going to fix itself and I always thought Rodgers covered up for them. Myers isn't the answer and Walker could be a solid LT, but I would aim for much higher.

 

But I still like this team and I'm excited about this team. And to be clear, the year KC went nuts and spent a ton of money, traded a bunch of picks and then used picks on the OL...they were coming off a SB appearance in which they lost to TB 31-9(we lost 31-26) because TB had such a great pass rush and both of us had such weaknesses at OT it got exposed. So it's not like I'm saying it's some tear down and rebuild. I'm saying I think they're two really good players away from solving pretty much all their problems(and a good DC of course). 

I wasn't necessarily responding directly to you in my previous post - in general agreed...

Specific to Bakhtiari - honestly I think the best thing the Packers can do for short-, mid-, and longterm outlook of their franchise is set plans in place for his eventual roster cut at the start of the next league year, and use the rest of this season to evaluate if they have their longterm answer at LT currently on the roster or if they need to find one in the 2024 draft.  And don't shy away from that question in public - flat out indicate that they feel for Bakh with this injury, but it's part of this sport and the Packers as an organization have to move on.  Even if Bakh makes a full recovery AND can still play next season, I highly doubt he's going to be willing to sign some team-friendly vet minimum contract.  There's no way the Packers should want to keep him on the 2024 roster under his current contract - and frankly I don't see the point of even trying to explore a restructure that extends any future years with him to try and avoid having to cut him and potentially add a couple more seasons to the contract.  Deal with that ~$19M dead cap hit on their 2024 cap ledger and move forward with a clean slate afterwards.

If he makes it back healthy and plays a few more seasons at a high level elsewhere, great for him - the Packers shouldn't have any more desire for that to be in Green Bay based on how the last 3 years have gone.  Take Bakh off the OL on this year's roster in terms of talking about how good it is or isn't.  I think the Packers need to do several things over the course of October to better assess their O line needs next offseason:

• Get Jenkins healthy and back at the starting LG position.  
• Make sure Royce Newman is released or no longer a starting or initial backup option at guard
• Give Sean Ryan a shot at guard snaps or potentially center if Myers' inconsistent play continues into November - he simply cannot be a worse option than Newman
• Flip Tom and Walker at tackle positions, consider Nijman as well.

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I wasn't necessarily responding directly to you in my previous post - in general agreed...

Specific to Bakhtiari - honestly I think the best thing the Packers can do for short-, mid-, and longterm outlook of their franchise is set plans in place for his eventual roster cut at the start of the next league year, and use the rest of this season to evaluate if they have their longterm answer at LT currently on the roster or if they need to find one in the 2024 draft.  And don't shy away from that question in public - flat out indicate that they feel for Bakh with this injury, but it's part of this sport and the Packers as an organization have to move on.  Even if Bakh makes a full recovery AND can still play next season, I highly doubt he's going to be willing to sign some team-friendly vet minimum contract.  There's no way the Packers should want to keep him on the 2024 roster under his current contract - and frankly I don't see the point of even trying to explore a restructure that extends any future years with him to try and avoid having to cut him and potentially add a couple more seasons to the contract.  Deal with that ~$19M dead cap hit on their 2024 cap ledger and move forward with a clean slate afterwards.

If he makes it back healthy and plays a few more seasons at a high level elsewhere, great for him - the Packers shouldn't have any more desire for that to be in Green Bay based on how the last 3 years have gone.  Take Bakh off the OL on this year's roster in terms of talking about how good it is or isn't.  I think the Packers need to do several things over the course of October to better assess their O line needs next offseason:

Yeah, that all makes sense.

Just one point of clarification(and again might not have been talking to me) but when I said restructure his contract, I'm talking about him taking a pay cut. Not adding years or void years or any of that. It's really hard for me to see any team signing him to a big deal. He said he wants to play here, I'd let him. But not for a 9.5M roster bonus+whatever the base is. It's gotta be nearly 10M. 

The Eagles cut Fletcher Cox and then re-signed him to kinda clean up the cap and go year to year with him. I'd do that. Cut him, he comes back and I'd welcome him back...for a couple million+ incentives... if he can practice and this 5th surgery actually solves anything fine. 

Otherwise I'm right there. He doesn't factor into their plans, they move forward as though he's not there.

3 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I think the Packers need to do several things over the course of October to better assess their O line needs next offseason:

• Get Jenkins healthy and back at the starting LG position.  
• Make sure Royce Newman is released or no longer a starting or initial backup option at guard
• Give Sean Ryan a shot at guard snaps or potentially center if Myers' inconsistent play continues into November - he simply cannot be a worse option than Newman
• Flip Tom and Walker at tackle positions, consider Nijman as well.

Yeah, I suppose it makes sense to have Tom playing LT...but I don't think they'll do that in-season. I think you pretty much know what you have in him. An extremely athletic LT who's just not quite strong enough at times, but he compensates with great balance. He actually had a good grade vs the Lions(82 per PFF I believe). 

-Newman...feels like Sean Rhyan can't be worse. I'd bet Rhyan makes more mental mistakes, but that still can't be as bad.

I think they know what Nijman is at this point. I really hoped he'd keep growing, but he made a huge jump and now he's kinda plateaued for the last couple years. 

 

I suppose if they were REALLY trying to do everything they could to win this year(without making that silly Tristan Wirfs trade that I doubt TB would even consider) you could play Walker and Nijman at the OTs and Tom at Center when Jenkins comes back. That's your best 5 most likely and nobody else can really play Center.

Ultimately though...I think you're right, just let the young guys play, see if they can hold up. Maybe you'll be surprised. I was pretty adamant that Bakhtiari wasn't good enough and they needed to draft another OT. He was just good "for a 4th round pick at rookie," I never imagined he'd become what he has.

I don't think we'll find out we've already got our two franchise OTs on this team. I hope I'm wrong. I think we have 2 core pieces in Jenkins and Tom, Walker I think fits in there, ideally for me at RG. And then you have some freedom with this OT class. There are guys who are better fits at RT. Oak Creek's own Amarius Mims at 6'7 340 and a smooth athlete, he may be a better RT. So having Tom already in place is huge.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospect-rankings/offensive-tackles/

That is insanely stacked. Morgan from AZ is exactly the Packers type of prospect. So is Barton from Duke(he sounds more like a OG prospect). Guys they could take later. The top of that class though, 4-5 guys who would be easy day 1 starters and produce an immediate upgrade.

I think this is going to be one of those drafts where you saw the Packers go CB back to back to try and finally address the need. 

 

Or this will be the year the Packers take a WRer in the first round, or Brock Bowers if he falls...because....of course the Packers do things differently than everyone else expects. 

 

I'm just going to enjoy watching the team grow and develop and not have expectations of them beating a Philly or SF type team. 

[bjkrautk]

Confirming what we mostly knew.  I very much hope things get sorted out on the health front for Bakh, irrespective of the contractual implications for the Packers.