Packers 2023 Discussion Thread

[Fear The Chorizo]

55 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

The good news is a 5th + Douglas for a 3rd is excellent compensation in theory. 

The bad news is that with our success rate in the 3rd we might as well take that extra pick and light it on fire. 

They'll likely have a top 10 pick in round 1, 2nd round picks will be top 40 and top 50, 3rd round picks now likely top 70 and top 90.

I get the 3rd round pick stigma, but those are also good ammo to move up in round 1 if there's someone you really like at the top of the draft after the 1st couple selections that's a franchise cornerstone.  Thinking the best LT in next year's draft.

[HarveysWBs]

Reading the tea leaves, I’d imagine this trade is an indication that Gutekunst feels his job is secure going into next year.  He would have to be pretty darn altruistic to make this deal while knowing his tenure was riding on this year’s stretch run.  So if I were a betting man, I’d say he’s going to be the one to be making that draft selection he just traded for.

[LouisEly]

Called the Douglas trade.

Helluva pickup signing him off of Arizona's practice squad, keeping him for two years, then flipping him for a swap of 3rd and 5th round picks.  According to Rich Hill's draft value chart, the difference in slots as of right now is 30 points or the equivalent of the #109 overall pick (assuming a few 3rd round comp picks, a high 4th round pick).

Using PFF's rankings and where their picks currently are, both of which will likely change, I'd be pretty pleased with this:

#7) Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
#39) Calen Bullock, S, USC
#48) Jonathan Brooks, RB, Texas
#71) Kingsley Suamatia, OT, BYU or Sedrick Van Pran, C, Georgia
#88) Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
#106) Lathan Ransom, S, Ohio State
4th (comp for Lazard): Cooper Beebe, G, Kansas State

[Fear The Chorizo]

9 hours ago, adambr2 said:

In addition to what I had already pointed out, Gute's original offer to Adams was under 20M per year before he actually made a reasonable effort to keep him when it was too late. Given his production and the state of the WR market both now and at the time, this is insulting low and it's no wonder that Adams ended up telling the Packers to pound sand. 

 

https://wisportsheroics.com/green-bay-packers-davante-adams-trade/

No matter how you dissect it, Gute dropped the ball big time in the 2022 offseason. 

 

While true, it's also a bad idea for any nfl team to pay pass catchers that kind of money longterm.  Despite how good he is, i didn't want gb paying adams longterm a few offseasons ago, and was happy with the trade package they got for him.  One way or the other we pretty much knew the math wasn't going to work out to keep both Rodgers and Adam's around together unless both were ok taking less than market value.  Neither were, and Gute opted to extend a two-time league mvp instead of paying an elite wr a market setting contract that would then have led to Jordan love being his quarterback in 2022.  If anything, Gute should have traded both before the 2022 season started, and he would have been equally roasted for taking that approach, too.

I look at it as the previous Packer core missed its chance for a title in 2020-2021 seasons, and it didn't make sense to try and keep them all together beyond those seasons both financially and personnelwise.

[HarryDoyle]

BREAKING NEWS: Preston Smith has now moved up the depth chart at corner and is now CB2.

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, HarryDoyle said:

BREAKING NEWS: Preston Smith has now moved up the depth chart at corner and is now CB2.

The dude was slighted by all the complaints of his coverage on Adams... picked it up last game to shut down TJ Hockenson.

[patrickgpe]

3 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Called the Douglas trade.

Helluva pickup signing him off of Arizona's practice squad, keeping him for two years, then flipping him for a swap of 3rd and 5th round picks.  According to Rich Hill's draft value chart, the difference in slots as of right now is 30 points or the equivalent of the #109 overall pick (assuming a few 3rd round comp picks, a high 4th round pick).

Using PFF's rankings and where their picks currently are, both of which will likely change, I'd be pretty pleased with this:

#7) Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
#39) Calen Bullock, S, USC
#48) Jonathan Brooks, RB, Texas
#71) Kingsley Suamatia, OT, BYU or Sedrick Van Pran, C, Georgia
#88) Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
#106) Lathan Ransom, S, Ohio State
4th (comp for Lazard): Cooper Beebe, G, Kansas State

Alt and Bullock would be an awesome haul. I want a tackle and safety early and both would help right away 

[adambr2]

5 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

They'll likely have a top 10 pick in round 1, 2nd round picks will be top 40 and top 50, 3rd round picks now likely top 70 and top 90.

I get the 3rd round pick stigma, but those are also good ammo to move up in round 1 if there's someone you really like at the top of the draft after the 1st couple selections that's a franchise cornerstone.  Thinking the best LT in next year's draft.

Oh, I'll take it, don't get me wrong. We have a lot of holes to fill, so we need all the Day 1 and Day 2 picks that we can get. 

I expect us to add at least RB and I would not be surprised if one comes in the 3rd. 

[BrewerFan]

On 10/30/2023 at 4:36 PM, HarveysWBs said:

Cynical me says unless one of them is giving his knee to Bakhtiari, it probably doesn’t change anything vis-a-vis a title.

But big-picture, I think opinions of Gutekunst would be drastically improved if Gute had picked Higgins over Love, IF (and this is the key assumption) Rodgers still took the year 2 leap in MLF’s system.  

The stakes of that draft pick were just so high that anything less than another SB win under Rodgers or a smooth transition to Love would be viewed as a massive failure.  And it’s looking like Gute is going to miss on both those outcomes.

Don't buy that Rodgers played better because of Love.

Also don't buy it's possible to know how good Love is with this slop he's playing with. And it's nobody in particular(I heard Walker had a poor game, but missed my first game in ~25 years Sunday). 

 

[BrewerFan]

9 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Called the Douglas trade.

No, you listed veterans who we'd save money on if we traded them(while omitting veterans who could be traded re; money saved in a trade).

Everyone was talking about Douglas being on the trade block.

[BrewerFan]

On 10/29/2023 at 9:04 PM, CheezWizHed said:

He is a FA next year.  Packers declined his 5th year option. 

 

Yes...and then extended him a year.

The author is saying you don't want to go into a QBs final year with him NOT under contract further and that's...just silly. 

[BrewerFan]

On 10/27/2023 at 1:44 PM, kestrel79 said:

I like following this guy. I agree it's not all the QB here. The WRs are part of it as well. I remember after that play linked above where the 2 WRs ran the same route, MLF looked super pissed on the sideline yelling at them. You could tell something wasn't executed right.

I'd like to see the Defense play better, and the running game step up to help out the passing game and Love's play. But with the injuries not sure that will happen we'll see.

Yes, Benkert actually provides context beyond, "what are they doing," and "Love sucks." 

That was bad. I heard this game was worse. 

I'm still taking Caleb Williams(he'll be a Bear or Cardinal( or maybe Drake Maye...zero chance on JJ McCarthy) if we can, otherwise, Fashanu, Alt...build the smart way. 

Now, you can also trade back up, add a pick in the ~15 range for another elite OT in this elite draft class.

 

[adambr2]

One thing to keep in mind this year too is that we are paying the bill that was always going to come due at some point from years of kicking salary down the road. 

You can only get away with the "cap isn't real" mentality for so long. Eventually, you have to pay the piper. But we shouldn't be hamstrung for too long. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

41 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

One thing to keep in mind this year too is that we are paying the bill that was always going to come due at some point from years of kicking salary down the road. 

You can only get away with the "cap isn't real" mentality for so long. Eventually, you have to pay the piper. But we shouldn't be hamstrung for too long. 

And that is one of the reasons the current Packer offensive roster is the lowest paid offense in the entire NFL in terms of actual salary paid out this season.

There is still value in developing young players through a growing pain NFL season that was inevitable to happen - but you need to have the right coaching/development staff in place to make that worth the onfield growing pains.  Jury is very much out in that regard when it comes to coaching/young player development in Green Bay right now.

To me, the biggest disappointment on the offensive side of the ball is the O-line and terrible run game.  Jones/Bakh/Jenkins injuries definitely doesn't help that, but their line had long been a unit of strength and depth - and now it just looks plain bad.  A good amount of personnel turnover and what appears to be a lack of young player development Packer fans had grown accustomed to once Stenavich become OC the past few seasons are both to blame for this.  Not having any semblance of a running game or competent Oline really puts a young quarterback on an island - couple that with young receivers who don't seem to know what routes to run half the time and an NFL offense winds up looking like what it has the past month or so in Green Bay.

[CheezWizHed]

Losing Douglas might have some interesting trickle down effects... Clearly a good rebuild move for next year with Douglas' salary.  But it looks a bit like a "tank move" for this year also. 

Alexander isn't 100% yet.  Stokes just went on IR.  Valentine, Nixon, and Ballentine become our CB starters if Jaire can't play.  Our CB strength just went to a glaring weakness.  

Maybe Gute has his eyes on Williams/Maye after all?

[kestrel79]

20 hours ago, patrickgpe said:

A 3rd for Douglas and a 5th seems like a nice trade. I'm glad they are not trying to add pieces and give up draft capital. 

Here comes another TE!

[nate82]

2 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Maybe Gute has his eyes on Williams/Maye after all?

If he does he will need to trade with the Bears or Cardinals to do so unless one of them takes someone else with the 1-3 picks which is possible but not likely.  The Bears are probably the only team that will trade out of their pick at least one of them.  One will be used for a QB or a OT or maybe for a WR.

I believe the Bears and Packers have traded in the past.  I think it was a first round pick in the 70’s?  So there is some history of that happening.

Maybe Arizona trades out of the #1 pick but that would take at least the Packers first round pick in ‘24 and ‘25 to do so along with some other picks.  Maybe the Packers trade for Murray instead???? 

[adambr2]

I know we're bad...tough to see us being #1 bad though. More like #5-#8. 

I don't think Arizona will be #1 either. Getting Kyler back should make them better, or at least not the worst team in the league. 

[nate82]

33 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I know we're bad...tough to see us being #1 bad though. More like #5-#8. 

I don't think Arizona will be #1 either. Getting Kyler back should make them better, or at least not the worst team in the league. 

Arizona has a rather hard schedule with their remaining games.  Which should put the Cardinals in the top 3.  The Bears have an easy schedule but they are horrible and haven’t shown any improvement over last year.  So Bears and Cardinals should be the 1-3 picks.

[CheezWizHed]

41 minutes ago, nate82 said:

If he does he will need to trade with the Bears or Cardinals to do so unless one of them takes someone else with the 1-3 picks which is possible but not likely.  The Bears are probably the only team that will trade out of their pick at least one of them.  One will be used for a QB or a OT or maybe for a WR.

I believe the Bears and Packers have traded in the past.  I think it was a first round pick in the 70’s?  So there is some history of that happening.

Maybe Arizona trades out of the #1 pick but that would take at least the Packers first round pick in ‘24 and ‘25 to do so along with some other picks.  Maybe the Packers trade for Murray instead???? 

I was saying it a little-tongue-in-cheek (half-blue?). But we aren't half-way through the season and have 1 win more than the worst team. 

Alexander is dinged up and playing poorly.  Our safeties were bad coming into the season and our best one (Savage) is probably out for the season.  Nixon isn't bad as a slot CB, but hardly a shut-down.  And now we are going to have Val/Ballentine starting at CB.  

Our pass defense was pretty good up to now.  Now we don't have much for pass or run D... Especially if Alexander doesn't get better (physically and level of play).

 

[nate82]

5 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I was saying it a little-tongue-in-cheek (half-blue?). But we aren't half-way through the season and have 1 win more than the worst team. 

Alexander is dinged up and playing poorly.  Our safeties were bad coming into the season and our best one (Savage) is probably out for the season.  Nixon isn't bad as a slot CB, but hardly a shut-down.  And now we are going to have Val/Ballentine starting at CB.  

Our pass defense was pretty good up to now.  Now we don't have much for pass or run D... Especially if Alexander doesn't get better (physically and level of play).

 

Right but still they have to bypass the Bears(Panthers) and Cardinals.  Maybe they bypass one but all three that maybe tough.  If Fields is out for much longer I don’t see the Bears winning many games.  Right now Carolina is the only maybe on their schedule and a toss up with the Packers.  Every other game looks to be a certain loss for them.

Chiefs Rams and Chargers I believe are the only tough games for the Packers left other than the Lions?

I think the Packers could pick as high as 3 but I am not sure they will be bad enough to be 1 or 2.

[homer]

41 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I think the Packers could pick as high as 3 but I am not sure they will be bad enough to be 1 or 2.

Fingers crossed!

[young guns]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

Right but still they have to bypass the Bears(Panthers) and Cardinals.  Maybe they bypass one but all three that maybe tough.  If Fields is out for much longer I don’t see the Bears winning many games.  Right now Carolina is the only maybe on their schedule and a toss up with the Packers.  Every other game looks to be a certain loss for them.

Chiefs Rams and Chargers I believe are the only tough games for the Packers left other than the Lions?

I think the Packers could pick as high as 3 but I am not sure they will be bad enough to be 1 or 2.

Of course Vegas and Denver were teams I'd put below most of teams remaining on the schedule(Carolina and NY exceptions) and we lost to them, so who knows.

[MrTPlush]

3 hours ago, nate82 said:

If he does he will need to trade with the Bears or Cardinals to do so unless one of them takes someone else with the 1-3 picks which is possible but not likely.  The Bears are probably the only team that will trade out of their pick at least one of them.  One will be used for a QB or a OT or maybe for a WR.

I believe the Bears and Packers have traded in the past.  I think it was a first round pick in the 70’s?  So there is some history of that happening.

Maybe Arizona trades out of the #1 pick but that would take at least the Packers first round pick in ‘24 and ‘25 to do so along with some other picks.  Maybe the Packers trade for Murray instead???? 

I am not a huge "teams never trade within the division guy', but there has got to be a negative one bazzilion percent chance the Bears trade with us so we can grab a Top 3 pick QB in the draft.

Like, there ain't no way that is happening. Not a chance in the world. 

 

[endaround]

Gute already throwing Love under the bus so we have the scape goat lined up.