Article: Is Jesse Winker Running Out of Time?

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Brewers' offense has gone dormant during their recent streak of lousy play, and the designated hitter position has failed to buoy them. In fact, they're the fifth-worst team in MLB in getting production from that spot this season. How safe is Jesse Winker's playing time? And who could replace him?

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Though fans particularly malign the lack of thump against left-handed pitchers, the Brewers also haven't been raking against righties of late, and Jesse Winker (their left-hitting, righty-mashing offseason import at DH) is right in the middle of those problems. Overall, the Crew is getting just a .216/.319/.313 batting line from their designated hitters, with Winker (who's hitting .214/.341/.257 in that role) getting about 60 percent of the playing time.

A free agent at year's end, Winker is not someone in whom the team is especially invested. They got him in exchange for Kolten Wong, who has been terrible with the Mariners, and they also got Abraham Toro in that deal, so they don't even need to call that swap a wash if they cut bait with Winker. That's not to say that they're (yet) close to doing so, but it would be both actually and psychologically easy to do so based on what Winker cost and the lack of upside in giving him endless opportunities.

The problem, of course, is the lack of good, obvious alternatives to Winker at that position. If the Brewers had a player raking on their bench, they would already have gone to them. Neither Owen Miller nor Mike Brosseau has had an inspiring start. Luke Voit's struggles have been well-documented. All three of those players are right-handed hitters, too, which makes it hard to justify replacing Winker with any of them. At Triple-A Nashville, the guy looking most like a viable DH in MLB is Keston Hiura, whose history and roster status both make entrusting him with that job unlikely.

There is one hitter who has looked great this year, though, who is already on the roster, and who bats left-handed (at least against righties). The biggest hurdle to giving him time at DH is the position he plays otherwise. It's Victor Caratini, the team's backup catcher. He's hitting .300/.417/.450, with better numbers against righties than against lefties. In 48 plate appearances, he's drawn eight walks and struck out only seven times, and he hits the ball hard. The big weakness in his offensive game--that he hits far too many ground balls to consistently tap into his power--is comparatively untroubling. He's not likely to sustain an OPS over .850 all season, but those underlying skills are promising. Since the start of 2021, against righties, he's batted .226/.322/.358--hardly scintillating, but a step up from what the Brewers are currently getting. 

Caratini is, of course, primarily a catcher. Putting him and William Contreras in the lineup together poses inherent logistical risks, which is why Craig Counsell has done so only three times this season--all against left-handed starters. That might need to change at some point, as the team tries to get better production out of a position at which only offense matters. The arrival of Sal Frelick or Jackson Chourio would open up different options, like using Christian Yelich or Tyrone Taylor as the DH. The eventual return of Luis Urias could displace Brian Anderson on the infield and force him to find some of his time at DH. For various reasons, though, those things are still far off on the horizon. In the meantime, the team should give Caratini a shot at infusing some offense.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

Yikes, I just checked FanGraphs and Brewers' DHes have the lowest SLG in baseball. The Reds are 29th.

To add insult to injury, the Brewers aren't even close. They're .043 SLG behind 29th place on the list.

[wiguy94]

Winker has some pretty alarming trends from 2021 to 2023. He was hurt last year which could explain some of his problems. He is supposed to be healthy now but those trends have continued downwards. The most alarming trend to me is his trend against Fastballs. 

His xwOBA against FB has completely fallen off a cliff since peaking in 2021. That trend line looks like a guy who just can't keep up against velocity anymore. 

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

I don't believe they would regularly use Caratini as a DH w/o another catcher on the roster. I also see no way Urias would supplant Anderson at 3B. THAT might be your revolving DH if Winker never gets untracked-----Urias the primary guy, occasionally giving Anderson or Adames a day off (they then DH). Attractive option? No. That's why Winker isn't going anywhere any time soon. Of course there's always the ultimate coin flip mashing down in Nashville.

[Brewcrew82]

2022 and his start to this season have been huge outliers from a slugging perspective (though backed up by batted ball metrics). It's important to remember that he had two separate injuries last year and is coming off neck surgery this year, which can take time to recover power. He's also only 29, which is not generally an age where players fall off the face of the earth (though he could be an exception) Do I think this can go on forever? No. But his .355 OBP (2nd on the team) is still quite valuable for a team that has otherwise struggled to get on base. He doesn't have forever, but I don't think he's running out of time just yet (at least a month). He's had less than 30 games...

Voit is the one whose time is running out. DFA Voit, call up Hiura, and rotate him at DH/1B/LF to see if he's truly turned the corner. If he has and Winker is still showing no power, then go ahead and DFA Winker and make him the regular DH. 

 

[wiguy94]

19 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

...is coming off neck surgery this year, which can take time to recover power.

I have seen you cite this multiple times. Is this based off a study somewhere on performance post neck surgery or is it just an assumption on your part because it being statistically true would be a welcomed sight.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think a player who plays through injuries like Winker has requires time to get over the phantom effect. It's not as easy to get over it as simply once the pain is gone everything automatically goes back to normal. For some the mechanical adjustments made to get through it gets imprinted and it takes time to readjust. For others it takes time to get used to not feeling pain. All in all, give it another month and lets see where he's at.

[igor67]

If Black could play defense at the moment or was at AAA already posting those numbers it would be different. Another month or so is about right to see if there is some improvement. Not too early to start exploring trade options though.

[Lou Buell]

Not doing the salary dump of Hunter Renfroe would have given the team a consistent power hitter that hit to the opposite field in the clutch and who could carry the team for a week besides playing a solid right field and sometime DH role especially for a team that has been offensively challenged for several years.  Renfroe leads the Angels in home runs (10) and RBI's not Trout or Ohtani.  Of the Brewers mentioned in the article only Miller puts the bat on the ball consistently and will move runners or bring them in from 3rd with less than 2 outs. Winker had the one big year with the Reds and now the Brewers are the second team hoping he can recapture those results and there could be a third team soon.

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, Lou Buell said:

Not doing the salary dump of Hunter Renfroe would have given the team a consistent power hitter that hit to the opposite field in the clutch and who could carry the team for a week besides playing a solid right field and sometime DH role especially for a team that has been offensively challenged for several years.  Renfroe leads the Angels in home runs (10) and RBI's not Trout or Ohtani.  Of the Brewers mentioned in the article only Miller puts the bat on the ball consistently and will move runners or bring them in from 3rd with less than 2 outs. Winker had the one big year with the Reds and now the Brewers are the second team hoping he can recapture those results and there could be a third team soon.

If there's one thing Jesse Winker has zero issues with, it's putting the bat on the ball....

Also, Wiemer has produced the exact same bWAR as Renfroe. Renfroe is what he is at this point. FWIW, one of the guys we got for him has been a huge help out of the bullpen so far. 

[Jopal78]

Had winker not been coming off a terrible season two major surgeries he wouldn’t have been available for spare parts like Wong. They took a calculated gamble and so far it’s coming up snake eyes. If they had anyone better, we could probably already start losing time.

[Robocaller]

9 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If there's one thing Jesse Winker has zero issues with, it's putting the bat on the ball....

Also, Wiemer has produced the exact same bWAR as Renfroe. Renfroe is what he is at this point. FWIW, one of the guys we got for him has been a huge help out of the bullpen so far. 

Wiemer's calculated value is largely due to getting 3 assists already. He's a negative offensively.  I'd suggest the defensive value is small-sample-related: teams will learn not to test his arm.

[Jake McKibbin]

26 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Wiemer's calculated value is largely due to getting 3 assists already. He's a negative offensively.  I'd suggest the defensive value is small-sample-related: teams will learn not to test his arm.

It's a lot more than that, his range has been immense in the outfield on a regular basis, something Hunter Renfroe really didn't have last season. He's starting to get a bit of a handle on things but if he can tap into his power even semi regularly, that's a great outcome

Plus he's just fun

[Playing Catch]

It's just so frustrating. The DH position, perhaps more than any other spot on the roster has been a huge problem. Admittedly, I thought Winker would bounce back. I thought Voit was fine as a PH/part-time bat. I thought Yelich and Contreras would be there to fill in for Winker/Voit. The injuries hurt too, as not having Urias, Mitchell, Taylor and Frelick forced Yelich to LF. The Brewers depth has been tested, and has failed, at least for the DH position. And for the posters that believe that this was all predictable, I would respectfully disagree. It isn't that the roster plan going into the season was expecting the DH platoon to produce All-Star level performance (like the Aguilar/Thames platoon at 1B did for one season). It was just expected to be around league-average; expected to allow Counsell to mix-and-match, play matchups, get everyone involved and stay fresh.

I do wonder how much of an impact playing a tough schedule has had. Even now, Adames, Yelich, Winker, Voit, and even Wiemer are ALL performing below their rest-of-season projections on fangraphs.

[owbc]

17 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Had winker not been coming off a terrible season two major surgeries he wouldn’t have been available for spare parts like Wong. They took a calculated gamble and so far it’s coming up snake eyes. If they had anyone better, we could probably already start losing time.

Right, and the Mariners needed a DH but dumped him anyway and the reports that came out made it clear that he wasn't interested in putting the work in to get better. Like many, I figured that he was frustrated about his injury and would be motivated to perform in a contract year, but I wonder if there isn't something else going on. 

That all said, as long as he keeps getting on base he'll have a job with the Brewers. 

[Harold Hutchison]

10 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

It's a lot more than that, his range has been immense in the outfield on a regular basis, something Hunter Renfroe really didn't have last season. He's starting to get a bit of a handle on things but if he can tap into his power even semi regularly, that's a great outcome

Plus he's just fun

I think Wiemer's growing pains will subside. The Brewers have had a lot of tough opponents, but maybe he will get better as the game slows down for him. In any case, his defense and the fact his arm keeps baserunners honest add a lot of value.

I think it may be time to think about cutting Winker and calling up Hiura, and bringing Black to AAA, with an eye to Black getting the call in September. I'm wondering if Black might not be the long-term answer at first.

[jay87shot]

I think his 10 million salary makes it a bit hard to just dump him. He is also a really good pinch hitter. Maybe he gets an "injury"  and Keston gets an extended look and then figure it out from there.

[yourout]

The Brewers have been hurt by the addition of the DH.

Back in the day we had some of the better hitting pitchers and Our starters were good at getting some easy outs at the end of lineups that allowed for longer starts.

Now the starters have to work harder and the Brewers cant find a decent DH to save their butts.

[Robocaller]

19 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

It's a lot more than that, his range has been immense in the outfield on a regular basis, something Hunter Renfroe really didn't have last season. He's starting to get a bit of a handle on things but if he can tap into his power even semi regularly, that's a great outcome

Plus he's just fun

I'm talking about the value as a calculated number, not the real, though obviously subjective value. 

Though if they don't demote Wiemer for at least 2 weeks sometime this season, the management has done  malpractice.

[Playing Catch]

9 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I'm talking about the value as a calculated number, not the real, though obviously subjective value. 

Though if they don't demote Wiemer for at least 2 weeks sometime this season, the management has done  malpractice.

I'm not sure the calculated value vs. subjective value are mutually exclusive. It seems to me that if we imagine likely positive career paths for Joey Wiemer, he would be an extension candidate. I like to believe that good will negotiations can play a role in making that happen (perhaps that's naive). The goal of deriving an additional year of control would be mitigated by a long-term extension, which, presumably would be aided by not playing service time games.