I fear we will fall out of contention sooner than later

[edfunderburk]

This team has been in a nosedive - we’ve lost seven of nine series after a strong start - but remain in first place (tied)

How on earth is that possible? The NL Central is truly a terrible division 🤓

Injuries to our greatest strengths - starting pitching & depth - have cost us significantly

The offense has struggled to hit with RISP over the last few weeks

I want to believe that we can win this year, but it may be wise to consider trading Adames & Burnes if quality prospects are part of the return

Based on what I see today, I’d rather see Turang at SS & let Urias play 2B once he is healthy

Burnes would be too expensive to sign long-term

Unfortunately, the 2023 Brewers look eerily similar to the 2022 Brewers - hard to watch

Here’s hoping we have a few players - both pitchers & hitters - emerge soon as catalysts to keep us competitive

[Jopal78]

Where are them hot takes, dumping on the Cardinals now? 8-2 in their last 10, 3rd place and the Brewers already hear the foot steps coming up behind them
 

Let’s face it, the ‘23 Brewers are just not good enough.  Theres a lack of hitting talent and they were always going to rely on a wing and a prayer, and now the pitching staff where all the talent is has become a MASH unit, with arms being signed off the street and going right to the major leagues. 
 

Anything is possible, but I assume that July will bring radical changes to the roster.
 

 

 

[sveumrules]

It’s not just the NL Central.

The Mets broke all the payroll records this offseason. The World Series was a foregone conclusion, just a matter of if they’d sweep the AL team or let them win one game out of pity. They are currently 24-23.

The Padres broke all the runner up payroll records this offseason. Stacked lineup with Bogaerts, Machado, Soto, Tatis Jr, etc. They are 21-26 and have scored fewer runs than the Brewers.

Phillies actually went to the WS last year then they went out and spent $300M on Trea Turner just to rub it in. They have outscored us by a half dozen runs at least, but are still only 22-24.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers were supposed to maybe finally take a step back this year since they trimmed payroll by their normal standards, but instead they are the class of the NL with the Braves. The only two teams that have played like “legit contenders” whatever that means.

The last three full season WS entrants from the NL were a 6th seed, a team with the 5th most RS wins and a Wild Card. If recent history is any indication, it’s the Braves and Dodgers who should be sweating because odds are one of the other four eventual NL playoff teams will end up in the WS over them.

[brewmann04]

I am sorry because we are in a bad division. they will remain in contention but watch the cards.

[MrTPlush]

It’s hard to care much about this team these days.

FO tosses out a lineup this year full of rookies with questionable bats and prayers like Winker. We now watch that lineup be a joke night after night.

We spend a large part of the off-season listening to Burnes complain about how ripped off he is, just to be statistically worse in every facet of the game. We listened to Adames compare himself to the greatest SSs in the game and how much he should make someday, to once again be a bum struggling to find an OBP over .300. All that talk and Adames looks like a guy trying to get non-tendered at the end of the year.

 

[pitchleague]

I do find it interesting that our offense and the fun (read as: a different looking team compared to last season) seemed to disappear once Garrett Mitchell was shelved for (presumably) the season.  To me, it seems like he was something of an “igniter” (not to be confused with the “Ignitor”) for this team, with his energy being a catalyst for the hitters.  Don’t get me wrong:  both Turang and Weimar have some of that energy, but they’re both rookies and learning how things work, while Mitchell, at least, had a bit of time last year with success.

I am hopeful that the Crew can at least hang in there and maybe make a move or two at the deadline.

[zurch1818]

There are too many doom and gloom sky is falling threads popping up here. I understand the field product is underperforming from the high expectations set from the start of the year, but we need some optimism after beating the Rays at home by 2 runs! The offense has also averaged 5 runs/game these last 2 days.

*Bring someone that doesn't watch movies, I also have no idea where this came from. I'm also up in the middle of the night holding our newborn twins. I'm optimistic that Brewers will find their groove before the twins don't need to be held all night.

[Jake McKibbin]

16 minutes ago, zurch1818 said:

There are too many doom and gloom sky is falling threads popping up here. I understand the field product is underperforming from the high expectations set from the start of the year, but we need some optimism after beating the Rays at home by 2 runs! The offense has also averaged 5 runs/game these last 2 days.

*Bring someone that doesn't watch movies, I also have no idea where this came from. I'm also up in the middle of the night holding our newborn twins. I'm optimistic that Brewers will find their groove before the twins don't need to be held all night.

The fact you're able to be in any way optimistic while holding twins in the middle of the night as they cry is just awesome. Hats off to you sir!

[zurch1818]

2 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

The fact you're able to be in any way optimistic while holding twins in the middle of the night as they cry is just awesome. Hats off to you sir!

Also it's not exactly crying. My wife and I alternate as "bassinets" while we try to rest on the couch. Hers has an optional feeding option while mine does not. Each of my shifts lasts from 1.5 hrs to 3ish hours (once they hunger cry). Sometimes on my shorter shifts, I'll "double shift" where I probably won't sleep for the half hour while she feeds them and take them again. My wife does not really sleep while holding them but I can if I'm tired enough otherwise I'm just mindlessly scrolling my phone. This is what my lap looks like when I don't have to hold them.

My vote is we hijack this thread and turn it into the 2023 optimism thread!

[MrTPlush]

As much as we poop on the Brewers, it isn't like they are leading the division and that is the only reason they would be in the postseason otherwise. We would be the #2 WC right now just behind the D Backs. The Twins, on the other hand, wouldn't be in a WC spot if they weren't the divisional leader. 

The NL Central features 3 positive run differential teams and nearly a 4th with the Brewers. The west features two teams and the Braves are the only team in the east with a positive run differential. The NL is just that terrible so far...it is the Braves/Dodgers and then a bunch of .500 type teams. 

Now, that will likely change. A few teams will probably put things together....but for now, we are kind of playing as 'blah' as the rest of the league. 

[sveumrules]

5 hours ago, zurch1818 said:

There are too many doom and gloom sky is falling threads popping up here. I understand the field product is underperforming from the high expectations set from the start of the year

Are they even underperforming expectations though?

Coming into the season they were almost unanimously picked as the 7th best team in the NL.

NYM, SDP, PHI, LAD, ATL and STL all made the postseason in 2022 and entered the season with payroll advantages between $55M and $110M over the Brewers. That’s an extra two to four superstars per team.

At this point they have the 3rd/4th highest playoff odds in the NL, so even with their recent underwhelming play they’ve still gained ground from before the season started.

Anyone who thought they were a true talent .737 W% team after starting 14-5 or who now thinks they are a true talent level .407 W% team after going 11-16 since is probably overreacting to a small sample.

Entering the season they were projected at 86 wins by FanGraphs and 87 wins by 538. They are currently on pace for 88 wins.

Barring miraculous circumstances, this was never a team who was going to jump out in front of the field and run away with things before 30% of the season was even complete.

What we have experienced to this point is exactly what we knew we were in for before the season started, a flawed team that would have ups and downs throughout the 162 game marathon and hopefully when it all shakes out at the end will be a little less flawed than nine other NL teams.

[Fear The Chorizo]

There's no way this team is "falling out of contention" any time soon - not with their division competition and not with the talent on this roster despite all the injuries early this season.  

Would it be better if the Brewers win 8 out of every 10 series they play all year long?  Sure - but that isn't realistic.  I think it's definitely in their best interest to start scouring the rosters of the current MLB dregs (Royals, As, Rockies, Nationals) and the very disappointing teams to open this season (White Sox, Mariners, Giants) and see what significant upgrades could be found to bolster the Brewers roster and improve a team that going into the season was pegged as the 2nd best in its division that as a whole was viewed as one of MLB's weakest.  I think at this point with the injuries and offensive inconsistency that the Brewers could really use a good veteran starter, a lefty reliever, and if they can find an impact 3B I think it's worth pulling the trigger.  Urias will be back at some point before the AS break to add IF depth, and getting Woody back in the rotation will be huge.

[jerichoholicninja]

Seems like every team outside of Tampa sucks this year. That said, this Brewers team is bad. Same crap offense we've seen for years but finally our pitching luck in terms of health for the starters and finding gems in the bullpen has run out.

[Thurston Fluff]

15 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Where are them hot takes, dumping on the Cardinals now? 8-2 in their last 10, 3rd place and the Brewers already hear the foot steps coming up behind them
 

Let’s face it, the ‘23 Brewers are just not good enough.  Theres a lack of hitting talent and they were always going to rely on a wing and a prayer, and now the pitching staff where all the talent is has become a MASH unit, with arms being signed off the street and going right to the major leagues. 
 

Anything is possible, but I assume that July will bring radical changes to the roster.
 

 

 

While I wasn't in the group counting them out I wouldn't be so quick to say I told you so. They played a pretty hard schedule early and their record showed it. They're playing a soft part of their schedule now and it shows. Since the Cards went on hot their streak they've gone 11-3 to get all the way up to a 21-27 record. During that streak the two good teams they've played in that stretch, the Brewers and Dodgers, are both teams dealing with significant injuries to their pitching staffs. That bit of luck does help them in the long run but if their performance against good teams not dealing with a rash if injuries is any indication they'll need a lot more luck to catch up. The Cards are not as bad as they started out but they also are not a good as the last 15 games might suggest either.

[Axman59]

I don't see the need for pessimism. It's a long season and there will be stretches of poor play/results.

 

Patience is called for.

[brewmann04]

Brewers are in a great division all teams mediocre at best 

[sveumrules]

56 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

but finally our pitching luck finding gems in the bullpen has run out.

Brewers relievers are currently second in MLB with +3.18 Win Probability Added. No name newcomers Payamps (54 ERA- | 83 FIP- | +1.15 WPA), Wilson (67 ERA- | 81 FIP- | +0.44 WPA) and Peguero (33 ERA- | 89 FIP- | +0.32 WPA) have been a big part of that success which is keeping the team afloat along with their defense (+25 DRS | 2nd).

[Jopal78]

2 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Brewers relievers are currently second in MLB with +3.18 Win Probability Added. No name newcomers Payamps (54 ERA- | 83 FIP- | +1.15 WPA), Wilson (67 ERA- | 81 FIP- | +0.44 WPA) and Peguero (33 ERA- | 89 FIP- | +0.32 WPA) have been a big part of that success which is keeping the team afloat along with their defense (+25 DRS | 2nd).

That’s the great thing about analytics you can find a stat to argue anything you want, it ignores that they’ve ridden those pitchers hard too. 
 

Payamps hasn’t recently tossed more than 60 innings in a season, he’s at 23 already. Same deal with Peguero, unless they simply burn them out, eventually the Brewers will have to go more often to those relief pitchers with eras over 8 who’ve so far they’ve only called on to throw 30 innings. 

 

[owbc]

5 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Brewers relievers are currently second in MLB with +3.18 Win Probability Added. No name newcomers Payamps (54 ERA- | 83 FIP- | +1.15 WPA), Wilson (67 ERA- | 81 FIP- | +0.44 WPA) and Peguero (33 ERA- | 89 FIP- | +0.32 WPA) have been a big part of that success which is keeping the team afloat along with their defense (+25 DRS | 2nd).

I saw that our pitching staff 27th in FIP!!! It's just us, the Mets, and the Red Sox down there with the dregs of MLB. Our defense is clearly bailing out our pitching. 

We're basically the opposite of the Cardinals, who are league-average in FIP but allow 0.5 R/G more than us because of their terrible defense. 

I had a feeling that our lack of rotation depth was going to be a problem this year and it seems like that, more than anything, is really hurting us. 

 

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, Jopal78 said:

That’s the great thing about analytics you can find a stat to argue anything you want, it ignores that they’ve ridden those pitchers hard too. 
 

Payamps hasn’t recently tossed more than 60 innings in a season, he’s at 23 already. Same deal with Peguero, unless they simply burn them out, eventually the Brewers will have to go more often to those relief pitchers with eras over 8 who’ve so far they’ve only called on to throw 30 innings. 

 

Maybe they have ridden them too hard, maybe they haven't. Payamps has thrown back to back days three times, Peguero once, Wilson nonce.

Either way, that doesn't change the fact that to this point they have been found gems and have played a major role in keeping an otherwise mediocre team (outside of their defense) atop the division.

 

[wiguy94]

9 minutes ago, owbc said:

I saw that our pitching staff 27th in FIP!!! It's just us, the Mets, and the Red Sox down there with the dregs of MLB. Our defense is clearly bailing out our pitching. 

We're basically the opposite of the Cardinals, who are league-average in FIP but allow 0.5 R/G more than us because of their terrible defense. 

I had a feeling that our lack of rotation depth was going to be a problem this year and it seems like that, more than anything, is really hurting us. 

 

Varland, Guerra, and Bush are seriously dragging down the team bullpen numbers. 2 of them are DFA'd and the other is on the IL with no known timetable for return so I think the overall bullpen number is pretty misleading. 

Our current 8-man pen has a 2.71 ERA, 3.71 xERA, and 3.67 FIP. The xERA and FIP are weighted by IP so this isn't just a raw average.

[sveumrules]

4 minutes ago, owbc said:

I saw that our pitching staff 27th in FIP!!! It's just us, the Mets, and the Red Sox down there with the dregs of MLB. Our defense is clearly bailing out our pitching. 

We're basically the opposite of the Cardinals, who are league-average in FIP but allow 0.5 R/G more than us because of their terrible defense. 

I had a feeling that our lack of rotation depth was going to be a problem this year and it seems like that, more than anything, is really hurting us. 

 

Yup, 27th in FIP based WAR, but 11th in runs allowed based WAR, mostly on account of that defense and a strand rate that is 3rd best in MLB.

Same story with the position players, 22nd in wRC+, 23rd in R/G, but 14th in WAR on account of the defense.

[owbc]

7 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Yup, 27th in FIP based WAR, but 11th in runs allowed based WAR, mostly on account of that defense and a strand rate that is 3rd best in MLB.

Same story with the position players, 22nd in wRC+, 23rd in R/G, but 14th in WAR on account of the defense.

So the combination of Lauer being terrible and Woodruff being injured is what is really killing this team. As well as Burnes being good but not great. Maybe you throw Peralta being average into that mix as well. Just overall a severely underperforming rotation relative to expectations except for Miley. 

The offense needs to hit better as well, but we knew that was going to be an issue going into the season, and at least their gloves are making up for a decent portion of the poor hitting. We'll win the division if the bats move in the direction that we think they are capable of and starting pitching regresses to the mean.

The Cards still don't scare me much unless they make some deadline moves. They dug a pretty big hole and have at least as many fundamental issues as we do. I still think they fail to win 90 games. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

15 minutes ago, owbc said:

So the combination of Lauer being terrible and Woodruff being injured is what is really killing this team. As well as Burnes being good but not great. Maybe you throw Peralta being average into that mix as well. Just overall a severely underperforming rotation relative to expectations except for Miley. 

 

My fear is that this eventually affects the pen. I looked at the rotation going into the season & thought we had a real good chance to get many more outings of 7 innings than what you normally see these days, occasionally even 7+. Case in point yesterday. Peralta walks back-to-back hitters in the 4th with a 3 run lead. Not only does that eventually tie the game but what was a very tidy pitch count gets flushed right down the toilet.

I feel this BP is good enough to compete successfully but not if the parade of starts where guys are at 90-100 pitches by the 5th inning continues. I thought going a little deeper into games was going to be a hallmark of this staff. Of course Woodruff being out hurts that.

[Brewcrew82]

We need Burnes and Peralta to start pitching to their abilities for the next month until Woodruff comes back. Just too much underperformance across the board from this team. 

We need Frelick as a "safe" option in CF, so we can limit Wiemer's exposure 

We need Urias to add back into the IF mix, so we can limit Turang's exposure. 

And we need to get more from the DH slot.

If these things can get resolved/fall into place, I think we'll find a way. Our bullpen has been great, which is the area we were all worried about heading into the season.