Reds (Abbott) vs Brewers (Burnes): 7/7/23, 7:10pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's the most important series of the year. The Reds continue their most improbable run of winning one-run games. Tonight, rookie Andrew Abbott is on the mound. He's been spectacular in a brief run and goes against Corbin Burnes, who the Brewers badly need to revert to 2021 form starting *right now*.

[treego14]

[Outlander]

With Taylor having six games under his belt at AAA might be time for him to come back for this series. Since Abbott is pitching I think Wiemer stays with his success against lefties, maybe Perkins goes back down. Have to think Mejia gets DFA as well but probably a series too early for Wilson to make his debut. Not today but have to think Houser will be used in the bullpen Saturday/Sunday which should help. 

[BruisedCrew]

I’m a little puzzled by the references to the Reds’ improbable run of one run games. 
 

I get that during this run of winning 19 of 23 games they have won a lot by one run. By my count they are 8-2 in one run games in that stretch. They have won those games both by coming from behind and holding on for dear life. 

I guess this raises the age old question of whether winning a lot of one run games is a sign of a good team or a sign of unsustainable good luck. 

I note that for the season the Reds are 20-15 in one run games, which isn’t an extremely high percentage. Maybe the recent run is just a balancing off of some bad luck earlier in the year.

By comparison, the Brewers are 15-7 in one run games, so significantly fewer games, but a higher winning percentage than the Reds. Are the Brewers lucky or good to win such a high percentage of their one run games.

For me the issue about the Reds is not that they have been lucky to win so many one run games (while also winning roughly 80% of their games decided by more than one run) but whether their hitting will cool off without getting any improvement from their pitching to compensate.

 

[Jake McKibbin]

43 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I’m a little puzzled by the references to the Reds’ improbable run of one run games. 
 

I get that during this run of winning 19 of 23 games they have won a lot by one run. By my count they are 8-2 in one run games in that stretch. They have won those games both by coming from behind and holding on for dear life. 

I guess this raises the age old question of whether winning a lot of one run games is a sign of a good team or a sign of unsustainable good luck. 

I note that for the season the Reds are 20-15 in one run games, which isn’t an extremely high percentage. Maybe the recent run is just a balancing off of some bad luck earlier in the year.

By comparison, the Brewers are 15-7 in one run games, so significantly fewer games, but a higher winning percentage than the Reds. Are the Brewers lucky or good to win such a high percentage of their one run games.

For me the issue about the Reds is not that they have been lucky to win so many one run games (while also winning roughly 80% of their games decided by more than one run) but whether their hitting will cool off without getting any improvement from their pitching to compensate.

 

Yeah it's more the incredible knack of timely hitting coming just when it's needed recently, as well as some unlucky plays from the opposition in many ways. 

Batted ball luck will likely turn at some point EDlC is massively outperforming his expected stats, but Steer and McLain for me have been brilliant.

Abbott has also taken a lot of hard contact so far, but the strikeouts have helped him stay the course well, but could be worked out post all star break

 

[82brewcrew82]

54 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I’m a little puzzled by the references to the Reds’ improbable run of one run games. 
 

I get that during this run of winning 19 of 23 games they have won a lot by one run. By my count they are 8-2 in one run games in that stretch. They have won those games both by coming from behind and holding on for dear life. 

I guess this raises the age old question of whether winning a lot of one run games is a sign of a good team or a sign of unsustainable good luck. 

I note that for the season the Reds are 20-15 in one run games, which isn’t an extremely high percentage. Maybe the recent run is just a balancing off of some bad luck earlier in the year.

By comparison, the Brewers are 15-7 in one run games, so significantly fewer games, but a higher winning percentage than the Reds. Are the Brewers lucky or good to win such a high percentage of their one run games.

For me the issue about the Reds is not that they have been lucky to win so many one run games (while also winning roughly 80% of their games decided by more than one run) but whether their hitting will cool off without getting any improvement from their pitching to compensate.

 

Greene and Lodolo will, to some extent, help mitigate some as both are significant improvements over what they have in the rotation now.  The real question is how far they are willing to go in dealing prospects or someone like India to improve the pitching this year.  Stupid or not, they have the capital to go get what they need.  The biggest difference is their prospects are performing and ours are not.

[Jopal78]

51 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

Greene and Lodolo will, to some extent, help mitigate some as both are significant improvements over what they have in the rotation now.  The real question is how far they are willing to go in dealing prospects or someone like India to improve the pitching this year.  Stupid or not, they have the capital to go get what they need.  The biggest difference is their prospects are performing and ours are not.

Funny if there is a changing of the guard in the NL Central the Brewers will have to take a long look in the mirror having passed on both Matt McClain (Frelick) and Andrew Abbott (Tyler Black and Russell Smith)
 

 

[LouisEly]

26 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Funny if there is a changing of the guard in the NL Central the Brewers will have to take a long look in the mirror having passed on both Matt McClain (Frelick) and Andrew Abbott (Tyler Black and Russell Smith)

I have a really hard time looking at McClain's last season at UCLA - if not his entire career at UCLA - and projecting him to what he is doing this season. 

He's hit 19 HRs this season so far and he hit a total of 16 in his career at UCLA with aluminum bats.  He slugged .425 in his only season in the Cape Cod League.

As for Abbott, one of these two is Abbott's last season at Virginia and one is Ethan Small's last season at Mississippi State:

106 IP, 89 H, 32 BB, 162 K, 13 HR, 2.7 BB/9, 13.7 K/9
107 IP, 61 H, 32 BB, 176 K, 8 HR, 2.7 BB/9. 14.8 K/9

IIRC, the scouting reports said that both worked in the low 90's in college.  If Small didn't work out/couldn't be fixed, how could we expect Abbott to?

[BruisedCrew]

41 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Funny if there is a changing of the guard in the NL Central the Brewers will have to take a long look in the mirror having passed on both Matt McClain (Frelick) and Andrew Abbott (Tyler Black and Russell Smith)
 

 

Every team, even successful ones, could point to players that turn into superstars that they could have drafted, but didn’t. As much as anything it’s the uncertainty of how 18-21 year olds will develop over the next 3-5 years. 

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

I have a really hard time looking at McClain's last season at UCLA - if not his entire career at UCLA - and projecting him to what he is doing this season. 

He's hit 19 HRs this season so far and he hit a total of 16 in his career at UCLA with aluminum bats.  He slugged .425 in his only season in the Cape Cod League.

As for Abbott, one of these two is Abbott's last season at Virginia and one is Ethan Small's last season at Mississippi State:

106 IP, 89 H, 32 BB, 162 K, 13 HR, 2.7 BB/9, 13.7 K/9
107 IP, 61 H, 32 BB, 176 K, 8 HR, 2.7 BB/9. 14.8 K/9

IIRC, the scouting reports said that both worked in the low 90's in college.  If Small didn't work out/couldn't be fixed, how could we expect Abbott to?

If I remember correctly the Brewers drafted Small because they projected him to move fast, but also don’t overlook he was well under slot, which illustrates half of what GMs say is baloney.

Given where McClain and Abbott were drafted in relation to the Brewers pick they likely were on their radar and yet they passed for some specific reason, early returns are that reasoning was flawed.

[homer]

31 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

If I remember correctly the Brewers drafted Small because they projected him to move fast, but also don’t overlook he was well under slot, which illustrates half of what GMs say is baloney.

Given where McClain and Abbott were drafted in relation to the Brewers pick they likely were on their radar and yet they passed for some specific reason, early returns are that reasoning was flawed.

It's way too early to say one way or the other.

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, homer said:

It's way too early to say one way or the other.

Particularly when Frelick is a top 25 prospect himself and yet to even see a MLB at-bat. 

[sveumrules]

4 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Funny if there is a changing of the guard in the NL Central the Brewers will have to take a long look in the mirror having passed on both Matt McClain (Frelick) and Andrew Abbott (Tyler Black and Russell Smith)

But why wouldn't the Reds have to take a long look in the mirror for drafting OF Austin Hendrick #12 overall in 2020 (currently OPS of 602 in A+) instead of OF Garrett Mitchell (#20 overall, 1.5 MLB WAR) or OF Mac Wainwright #113 overall in 2020 (never played, sexual assault conviction) instead of OF Joey Wiemer (#120 overall, 1.0 MLB WAR)?

[treego14]

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Particularly when Frelick is a top 25 prospect himself and yet to even see a MLB at-bat. 

Ditto for Black.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

But why wouldn't the Reds have to take a long look in the mirror for drafting OF Austin Hendrick #12 overall in 2020 (currently OPS of 602 in A+) instead of OF Garrett Mitchell (#20 overall, 1.5 MLB WAR) or OF Mac Wainwright #113 overall in 2020 (never played, sexual assault conviction) instead of OF Joey Wiemer (#120 overall, 1.0 MLB WAR)?

Or in 2016 taking platoon hitter Nick Senzel with the #2 pick and his career fWAR of -0.2.  Would have been better taking Ray at #2 in 2016 with his career 0 fWAR or maybe they should have picked Corbin Burnes at #2. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

Controlling the running game this weekend is going to be important. This team not only tries to pick up steals but is aggressive in taking the extra base on balls to the OF. I'm concerned about Yelich particularily.

We're starting to show some success when getting into a teams' bullpen. There are some opportunities in innings 6-8 this weekend.

[csbysam]

Our makeup is just grinding. Elite D, best in MLB and doing what it takes to win. I’m feeling sweep. Oh and yeli is going to be MVP. 

[willie key]

 I really want the brewers to prove me wrong.   But I just think this is where the reds open up a significant lead.    I would be surprised if we won either of these series

[rickh150]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Particularly when Frelick is a top 25 prospect himself and yet to even see a MLB at-bat. 

Absolutely.., and Black too.

[Brewcrew82]

25 minutes ago, willie key said:

 I really want the brewers to prove me wrong.   But I just think this is where the reds open up a significant lead.    I would be surprised if we won either of these series

You think Elly de la Cruz makes that big of a difference? Granted the Reds are scorching hot, but we're also playing better ball than when we took 3/4 from the Reds in Cincy...

[willie key]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You think Elly de la Cruz makes that big of a difference? Granted the Reds are scorching hot, but we're also playing better ball than when we took 3/4 from the Reds in Cincy...

I’d like to see the brewers prove me wrong.  Love to see it 

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You think Elly de la Cruz makes that big of a difference? Granted the Reds are scorching hot, but we're also playing better ball than when we took 3/4 from the Reds in Cincy...

They do have Votto back too and he’s a notorious Brewer killer. 

The biggest thing that concerns me with the Reds is that  they have so many guys who are hitting well that they can strike at any time with a big inning. They also showed in Cincy that they can and will steal a base at every opportunity so every baserunner can become an instant scoring threat. 

Burnes will have to be at his best because I don’t think the Brewers can get into a slugfest with these guys. 

[82brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You think Elly de la Cruz makes that big of a difference? Granted the Reds are scorching hot, but we're also playing better ball than when we took 3/4 from the Reds in Cincy...

Do you predict the Brewers will win the series?

[HarryDoyle]

The Brewers are wearing their Jetson's jerseys so this will be a loss.