Rumor: Angels Reportedly Considering Ohtani Trade, A Reversal From Last Week

[wibadgers23]

Just for fun, what you all be comfortable with giving up for two months of Ohtani? I’d probably do one of Frelick/Black, one of Gasser/Rodriguez, Luis Lara and a lottery ticket.

[Oxy]

4 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Just for fun, what you all be comfortable with giving up for two months of Ohtani? I’d probably do one of Frelick/Black, one of Gasser/Rodriguez and a lottery ticket.

Those guys are basically Blake Perkins and Abraham Toro...and Andrew Monasterio...and Tyrone Taylor...and Pablo Reyes, Keston Hiura, Ethan Small....  etc. etc. etc. Perhaps ONE of them becomes a Michael Brantley or Khris Davis or Nelson Cruz type guy....but which one? Give em all for Ohtani this year and a run at a title...

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Oxy said:

Oops. I read forums from the bottom up so I responded to the other thread in kind.

Basically, the Brewers should offer their ENTIRE farm other than Chourio, Misiorowski and Quero for Ohtani. Literally 15 or 20 of the next guys on the prospect list for Shohei.  

I’m thankful you’re not the GM. You do know Ohtani is a FA in 3 months…right?

[Oxy]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I’m thankful you’re not the GM. You do know Ohtani is a FA in 3 months…right?

Outside of the 3 guys I mentioned, who do you think is actually more valuable than  any number of dozens of guys available every March 30th of every year?

EDIT: other than 1st year draftees, who I believe are ineligible to be traded anyway...

[sveumrules]

4 minutes ago, Oxy said:

Outside of the 3 guys I mentioned, who do you think is actually more valuable than  any number of dozens of guys available every March 30th of every year?

March 30th availability is nowhere near comparable to trade deadline value.

On March 30th, teams have ideas about how competitive they’ll be but no proof yet. Rosters are mostly set so you can slip some heavily flawed guys like Hiura or one of how so ever many fungible relief arms through without losing them.

If you’ve been optioned multiple times, teams have gotten a pretty good look at you. You probably haven’t fulfilled some element of whatever promise got you forty manned in the first place.

Guys like Frelick, Black, Gasser, Rodriguez still have far more perceived upside than back of the 40 man churn.

Maybe they’ll never live up to it, but teams will give up more value for younger players with higher perceived upside and additional years of control than they will give up for older guys who already have middling MLB track records and ticking service clock.

[TURBO]

30 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Just for fun, what you all be comfortable with giving up for two months of Ohtani? I’d probably do one of Frelick/Black, one of Gasser/Rodriguez, Luis Lara and a lottery ticket.

That is absolute crazy talk... :(

[Oxy]

7 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

March 30th availability is nowhere near comparable to trade deadline value.

On March 30th, teams have ideas about how competitive they’ll be but no proof yet. Rosters are mostly set so you can slip some heavily flawed guys like Hiura or one of how so ever many fungible relief arms through without losing them.

If you’ve been optioned multiple times, teams have gotten a pretty good look at you. You probably haven’t fulfilled some element of whatever promise got you forty manned in the first place.

Guys like Frelick, Black, Gasser, Rodriguez still have far more perceived upside than back of the 40 man churn.

Maybe they’ll never live up to it, but teams will give up more value for younger players with higher perceived upside and additional years of control than they will give up for older guys who already have middling MLB track records and ticking service clock.

Sure...and Shohei Ohtani is the most valuable 2 month rental in the history of baseball with a real chance to give a solid team like the Brewers a real chance to win the WS. I'll take the risk of what I have stated.  The entire farm system other than  Quero, JC and JM for 2 months and the playoffs of Ohtani.

[homer]

50 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Just for fun, what you all be comfortable with giving up for two months of Ohtani? I’d probably do one of Frelick/Black, one of Gasser/Rodriguez, Luis Lara and a lottery ticket.

I'd do that in a heartbeat but I sincerely doubt the Angels would. My guess is that it would take Chourio or Misiorowski or Quero + what you have listed there.

[sveumrules]

9 minutes ago, Oxy said:

Sure...and Shohei Ohtani is the most valuable 2 month rental in the history of baseball with a real chance to give a solid team like the Brewers a real chance to win the WS. I'll take the risk of what I have stated.  The entire farm system other than  Quero, JC and JM for 2 months and the playoffs of Ohtani.

It’s fun hyperbole, but the Angels don’t have the capacity to absorb an entire farm system nor do the Brewers have the capacity to surrender one.

The most recent similar trade was probably when the Dodgers traded for two months of Max Scherzer and eight months of Trea Turner in exchange for Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray who were both ranked around Top 50-75 entering 2021.

Obviously Ohtani is a unique case, but considering he comes with six fewer months of team control than that package (and doesn’t play SS everyday), I’m not sure he will garner a significantly greater return if the Angels do decide to deal him.

[Oxy]

14 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

It’s fun hyperbole, but the Angels don’t have the capacity to absorb an entire farm system nor do the Brewers have the capacity to surrender one.

The most recent similar trade was probably when the Dodgers traded for two months of Max Scherzer and eight months of Trea Turner in exchange for Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray who were both ranked around Top 50-75 entering 2021.

Obviously Ohtani is a unique case, but considering he comes with six fewer months of team control than that package (and doesn’t play SS everyday), I’m not sure he will garner a significantly greater return if the Angels do decide to deal him.

Well. They name 20 guys from our system other than the three I mentioned...and they give us 20 guys of their choosing from their system.  Boom, done.  It's not that hard. Give me half an hour and I could do it.

[homer]

17 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

It’s fun hyperbole, but the Angels don’t have the capacity to absorb an entire farm system nor do the Brewers have the capacity to surrender one.

The most recent similar trade was probably when the Dodgers traded for two months of Max Scherzer and eight months of Trea Turner in exchange for Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray who were both ranked around Top 50-75 entering 2021.

Obviously Ohtani is a unique case, but considering he comes with six fewer months of team control than that package (and doesn’t play SS everyday), I’m not sure he will garner a significantly greater return if the Angels do decide to deal him.

Good post. He certainly is a unique case given the fact that he can help you with the bat and on the mound. Not sure how he'll be valued but it feels like it's gonna take a lot even if it's just a rental. How is WAR even calculated for a guy like that? Do you just add pitching + hitting to get a number?

[owbc]

6 minutes ago, homer said:

Good post. He certainly is a unique case given the fact that he can help you with the bat and on the mound. Not sure how he'll be valued but it feels like it's gonna take a lot even if it's just a rental. How is WAR even calculated for a guy like that? Do you just add pitching + hitting to get a number?

Add it up! 4.0 oWAR, 2.5 pitching WAR, and -0.8 dWAR this year (not sure if I trust that last number). 

The other thing about Ohtani is that he's one guy taking up two roster spots. So in theory he also lets you have an extra guy on your team. But that's also the real risk -- if he gets injured then you're down your best hitter and best pitcher. 

If we ever want to see Ohtani in a Brewers uniform, this would be the time to do it. The turning point of this franchise was trading for CC Sabathia. We probably shouldn't do it, but it sure would make for a fun few months :) 

 

[wibadgers23]

1 minute ago, owbc said:

If we ever want to see Ohtani in a Brewers uniform, this would be the time to do it. The turning point of this franchise was trading for CC Sabathia. We probably shouldn't do it, but it sure would make for a fun few months :) 

Sellouts just about every game I would imagine. It would be absolutely nuts in Milwaukee for two-plus months.

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, owbc said:

Add it up! 4.0 oWAR, 2.5 pitching WAR, and -0.8 dWAR this year (not sure if I trust that last number). 

The other thing about Ohtani is that he's one guy taking up two roster spots. So in theory he also lets you have an extra guy on your team. But that's also the real risk -- if he gets injured then you're down your best hitter and best pitcher. 

If we ever want to see Ohtani in a Brewers uniform, this would be the time to do it. The turning point of this franchise was trading for CC Sabathia. We probably shouldn't do it, but it sure would make for a fun few months :) 

 

The negative dWAR is just the positional adjustment for playing DH.

I can kinda see the logic for hand waving it away in Ohtani’s singular case since he’d probably be a gold glove RF if he didn’t have to DH in order to stay healthy enough to pitch every six days.

[Playing Catch]

My suspicion is that if they decide to trade him, the Angels will get at least 2 prospects the caliber of Chourio, Misirowski, and Quero, kind of like the Scherzer/Turner trade.

If I'm the Angels' GM, I just don't think you can trade him for guys that *might* pan out. They gotta get sure things.

[wallus]

Ohtani would be amazing but he wouldn't make us World Series favorites. We need guys that are above average players to complement our good rotation and awesome bullpen.

[igor67]

Frelick, Black, Urias, Keston and a couple of other prospects in the 10-20 range? 20 players is over the top, but the Angels need a lot of players having failed terribly at the 2 all time greats approach so quantity may actually be more useful to them then normal.

[Playing Catch]

11 hours ago, wallus said:

Ohtani would be amazing but he wouldn't make us World Series favorites. We need guys that are above average players to complement our good rotation and awesome bullpen.

While I agree they wouldn't be WS favorites, it would significantly improve the team. If the Brewers suddenly traded for 2022 Aaron Judge and 2008 Sabathia, I think the rest of their roster, especially the pitching and defense, would be plenty to expect a big run in the playoffs.

The thing about Ohtani is that if there has ever been a "sure" thing to give your team a shot at a World Championship, Ohtani is it.

Prospects come and go. Babe Ruth is forever.

[owbc]

I wonder if Ohtani's pursuit of 62 HR is going to be what keeps him in an Angels uniform through the end of the year. The Angels would have to be crazy to trade someone in the middle of the greatest season in baseball history. Who cares about the playoffs? 

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, owbc said:

I wonder if Ohtani's pursuit of 62 HR is going to be what keeps him in an Angels uniform through the end of the year. The Angels would have to be crazy to trade someone in the middle of the greatest season in baseball history. Who cares about the playoffs? 

Yup. That, with a little of Moreno’s insistence on being obstinate mixed in.

[wibadgers23]

Yeah I think I’m starting to lean toward the Angels not trading him, even if they do get a pretty good offer. I think they’ll take their chances and try to resign him in the offseason.

[tmwiese55]

A quirk of this that popped in my head too is that if traded to an NL team like LAD it could cost him an MVP.   If there's gamblers out there it might not be the dumbest bet right now on whoever the #2 in the AL is or if there is an Ohtani vs field bet. 

[owbc]

13 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

A quirk of this that popped in my head too is that if traded to an NL team like LAD it could cost him an MVP.   If there's gamblers out there it might not be the dumbest bet right now on whoever the #2 in the AL is or if there is an Ohtani vs field bet. 

I'm entirely serious when I say he could win MVP in both leagues in that scenario. 

[sveumrules]

16 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

A quirk of this that popped in my head too is that if traded to an NL team like LAD it could cost him an MVP.   If there's gamblers out there it might not be the dumbest bet right now on whoever the #2 in the AL is or if there is an Ohtani vs field bet. 

Wander Franco (best player on best team in AL) is currently +3500 for AL MVP at Poto.

*this post for informational purposes only sveumrules has no affiliation with any gambling services

[Scooterfletcher]

Quero, Frelick, and Small for ohtani has to happen