Maximizing Burnes and Woodruff

[RobDeer 45]

These guys are being discussed all over the board but I wanted to get down to what everyone thinks is the best way to deal with these two.  How do we both maximize their impact on the field for our team and also maximize their potential return in a trade?  This would also include potential signing or extending them.  They are two of the better talents we've had as pitchers and they've had a big impact on our success over the last few years.  Unfortunately we are a small market team and we can't just let these guys walk, or over pay and then have them not meet expectations.  Something has to give, so what's the smart move with these two?

[sveumrules]

After the way this draft played out - and with Woodruff hurt, Adames underperforming and Burnes out of our price range - I'm more and more tempted to let them all play out the string in 2024, offer them each the QO, and then let Tod Johnson and company have fun in 2025 with all the extra picks and bonus pool cash.

[Playing Catch]

26 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

After the way this draft played out - and with Woodruff hurt, Adames underperforming and Burnes out of our price range - I'm more and more tempted to let them all play out the string in 2024, offer them each the QO, and then let Tod Johnson and company have fun in 2025 with all the extra picks and bonus pool cash.

This is basically where I've settled. I understand, but don't necessarily agree with the adage that small-market teams like the Brewers "can't afford to let guys walk for nothing". Having them play for a FA contract while playing for a championship in 2024 for the Crew is definitely not nothing.

Right now, the Brewers have the best of all worlds. An affordable playoff contender, AND a farm that's nearly ready for harvest.

With that said, I have this feeling like the Brewers will decide to trade them this offseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I still try to extend Woodruff. Maybe the injury bumps him down a few bucks.

I probably trade Burnes.

I let Adames play out the string and hope he's worth a QO after 2024.

[wibadgers23]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I still try to extend Woodruff. Maybe the injury bumps him down a few bucks.

I probably trade Burnes.

I let Adames play out the string and hope he's worth a QO after 2024.

I think this is exactly how things play out. Burnes will be gone in the offseason and Woody and Adames will be Brewers on Opening Day.

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

After the way this draft played out - and with Woodruff hurt, Adames underperforming and Burnes out of our price range - I'm more and more tempted to let them all play out the string in 2024, offer them each the QO, and then let Tod Johnson and company have fun in 2025 with all the extra picks and bonus pool cash.

I've also been thinking this as well. Brewers should clear out a decent amoung of salary this offseason with non-tenders and FA, so they might have a bit of money to get a FA bat and hopefully another year of experience for the kids lets them be more impactful next season.

Winker - $8.25M

Lauer - $5.08M

Tellez - $4.95M

Urias - $4.7M? Feel unsure of what the future holds for him

Anderson - $3.5M

Miley - $3.5M

Ruf - $3M

Caratini - $2.8M? Brewers might consider retaining him as a backup catcher

Hiura- $2.2M

Voit - $2M

Teheran - $1.5M

Brosseau - $1.4M

That's about $43M that could come off the books this offseason. I don't think the arb raises will come close to reaching that number which should leave the Brewers some room to bring in a bat or 2.

 

 

[StearnsFTW]

Play out the season.  Trade em all this offseason.

[Jopal78]

10 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I've also been thinking this as well. Brewers should clear out a decent amoung of salary this offseason with non-tenders and FA, so they might have a bit of money to get a FA bat and hopefully another year of experience for the kids lets them be more impactful next season.

Winker - $8.25M

Lauer - $5.08M

Tellez - $4.95M

Urias - $4.7M? Feel unsure of what the future holds for him

Anderson - $3.5M

Miley - $3.5M

Ruf - $3M

Caratini - $2.8M? Brewers might consider retaining him as a backup catcher

Hiura- $2.2M

Voit - $2M

Teheran - $1.5M

Brosseau - $1.4M

That's about $43M that could come off the books this offseason. I don't think the arb raises will come close to reaching that number which should leave the Brewers some room to bring in a bat or 2.

 

 

If it were only that easy. That’s 6 players on the 26 man roster or major league injured list.  That 43 million won’t help add any impact players when it’s spread out to cover arbitration raises plus signing players to replace this year’s 1B, 3B, DH, back up Cather and 2 starting pitchers and bench players. 

[OldHeidelberg]

13 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Play out the season.  Trade em all this offseason.

Yeah, unless you just don't get big enough offers for Woody and Adames due to injury/play in which case you see how 2024 goes and maybe trade them at deadline if things aren't going well. But Burnes you trade, he is such a talent and has been durable, I think the risk of passing up the haul he will demand is too high for the Brewers.  A lot probably depends on how big they swing this deadline, we may need to restock the prospects but I doubt it. 

[wiguy94]

13 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

If it were only that easy. That’s 6 players on the 26 man roster or major league injured list.  That 43 million won’t help add any impact players when it’s spread out to cover arbitration raises plus signing players to replace this year’s 1B, 3B, DH, back up Cather and 2 starting pitchers and bench players. 

You know you really don't have to play devil's advocate or be the contrarian on every single post. Also the 2 SP is such a reach. Teheran is only in the rotation because of injuries. If Brewers kept Woodruff and Burnes they would have Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, Houser, Rea, Gasser as the 7 deep for the starting rotation.

Also the names I listed have combined for -0.9 fWAR this year in that roughly $43M worth of salary, so no it would not be very difficult to replace those names.

[Jopal78]

19 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

You know you really don't have to play devil's advocate or be the contrarian on every single post. Also the 2 SP is such a reach. Teheran is only in the rotation because of injuries. If Brewers kept Woodruff and Burnes they would have Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, Houser, Rea, Gasser as the 7 deep for the starting rotation.

Also the names I listed have combined for -0.9 fWAR this year in that roughly $43M worth of salary, so no it would not be very difficult to replace those names.

I’m not playing devils advocate, the opposite. It’s as though you pay no attention to how this team actually operates.

They have Yelich making a 5th of the payroll. The starting pitching staff takes up an even bigger chunk, and they fill in the roster with rookies, bargain buys, bounce back players, etc. In years when they don’t have the talent to compete they cut payroll pretty close to the bone.

Thus, I don’t know why you think they would suddenly deviate from how they’ve gone about roster construction for the last 10 years by suggesting they should  go sign a couple of impact free agents. Maybe you just want to be a Cubs fan. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think they all are on the opening day roster for 2024, with Adames being thr most likely offseason trade candidate.  Depending how the season starts, both woodruff and burnes could still land quite a bit in trade at next years deadline, or if the Brewers are in contention you go all in with trades for one last ride with them before the organization moves into Chourio's grasp.

[nate82]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Woodruff hurt, Adames underperforming and Burnes out of our price range - I'm more and more tempted to let them all play out the string in 2024, offer them each the QO, and then let Tod Johnson and company have fun in 2025 with all the extra picks and bonus pool cash.

This would also be a year where the Brewers have a comp A pick.  So after the first round assuming Adames, Burnes and Woodruff all decline their QO and sign with another team that would be 4 picks after the 1st round for the Brewers in ‘25.

A bit of a gamble but no more than gambling on the prospects you would get in return via trades.  

[jay87shot]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I still try to extend Woodruff. Maybe the injury bumps him down a few bucks.

I probably trade Burnes.

I let Adames play out the string and hope he's worth a QO after 2024.

This.

If Woody pitches well I doubt his contract would be to crazy. 5/100ish maybe an opt. out or the last year or two are options.

Burnes will still bring in a top50-ish prospect and at least a couple other strong pieces (I still love Burnes for Goldschimt and a second piece in the offseason).

Adames hasn't hit well enough to pay or for someone to give a substantial trade package.

[Jim French Stepstool]

37 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

This.

If Woody pitches well I doubt his contract would be to crazy. 5/100ish maybe an opt. out or the last year or two are options.

Burnes will still bring in a top50-ish prospect and at least a couple other strong pieces (I still love Burnes for Goldschimt and a second piece in the offseason).

Adames hasn't hit well enough to pay or for someone to give a substantial trade package.

I wouldn't bet the farm on it or anything, but I've felt for a while now that Woodruff re-upping isn't impossible.

I'm all over the map re Burnes. Don't have a strong feeling how they'll go. Letting him walk for the picks isn't something I'd be adverse to.

[Brock Beauchamp]

46 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

This.

If Woody pitches well I doubt his contract would be to crazy. 5/100ish maybe an opt. out or the last year or two are options.

Burnes will still bring in a top50-ish prospect and at least a couple other strong pieces (I still love Burnes for Goldschimt and a second piece in the offseason).

Adames hasn't hit well enough to pay or for someone to give a substantial trade package.

I'm a big believer in letting a player opt out if that's what it takes to sign them. If you get two good/great years and they leave, that's not the worst thing in the world. You received two prime-age seasons and then someone else assumes later risk.

[Jake McKibbin]

Adames to the Dodgers may no longer be feasible, theyve just acquired amed rosario

 

EDIT didn't realise he was a FA after 2023!

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

I’m not playing devils advocate, the opposite. It’s as though you pay no attention to how this team actually operates.

They have Yelich making a 5th of the payroll. The starting pitching staff takes up an even bigger chunk, and they fill in the roster with rookies, bargain buys, bounce back players, etc. In years when they don’t have the talent to compete they cut payroll pretty close to the bone.

Thus, I don’t know why you think they would suddenly deviate from how they’ve gone about roster construction for the last 10 years by suggesting they should  go sign a couple of impact free agents. Maybe you just want to be a Cubs fan. 

Show me where I said we would sign an impactful FA. I said it would give us the money to sign a FA bat or 2. I never used to word impactful. You made I gigantic assumption because you can’t help the need to be the site contrarian. 

[Brewcrew82]

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers didn't trade any of Burnes, Woodruff (and Adames) this offseason. And I don't think I would get all too mad about it or fault them either.

[Brewcrew82]

On 7/26/2023 at 6:41 PM, wiguy94 said:

Show me where I said we would sign an impactful FA. I said it would give us the money to sign a FA bat or 2. I never used to word impactful. You made I gigantic assumption because you can’t help the need to be the site contrarian. 

Not even the site contrarian. 

It's not like the Brewers haven't used extra payroll space to go out and sign a Yasmani Grandal before, right? Or to sign Yelich to a $200 million dollar extension...

[Team Canada]

4 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I’m not playing devils advocate, the opposite. It’s as though you pay no attention to how this team actually operates.

...

Maybe you just want to be a Cubs fan. 

It's really tiresome how so many of your responses basically imply the poster is an idiot and you're there to set things straight. And the unnecessary personal shots.

Love,
Civility Police

[Jopal78]

25 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

It's really tiresome how so many of your responses basically imply the poster is an idiot and you're there to set things straight. And the unnecessary personal shots.

Love,
Civility Police

Laying on the snark while scolding others for it… nice.

[rickh150]

I would be surprised if Burnes is back in 2024. 
I would be surprised if Woody and Adames weren’t on the team in 2024. Trades would not bring back much, especially with Adames hitting .200 and Woody being hurt.

[KeithStone53151]

Im incredibly torn on how to handle these guys. On one hand, we're a small market and need to recoup some value. On the other, these young bats will all be a year older...and chourio just might arrive next year. It could be something special, it might make sense to keep all the talent...eat a year in the red...and take one last run at it. We can still get a lot more for burnes at the deadline than the giolito trade if 2024 goes south.

[KeithStone53151]

I'll add I don't think any will or should be brewers in 2025