Luis Urias to the Red Sox

[LouisEly]

I wouldn't put much stock in the MLB top 30 prospects now.  I don't think it has been fully re-ranked, other than just bumping up a few guys who are blowing up or changing organizations, since before the season.  Moore is not #8, Small certainly is not #11, Mendez is not #13, Valerio is not #16, Perez is not #17, and Garcia is not #20, even without the draft picks slotting in.

Blalock might be close to where he really is, but they're just slotting him into a new organization and not looking at the entire list.

[CheezWizHed]

Blalock sounds like he could be a near-term BP candidate with 2 solid pitches and a big FB. 

I also found this interesting write-up from a Red Sox site: https://soxprospects.com/players/blalock-bradley.htm

It details each pitch he throws and the strengths.  Here is the summary:

Summation: Potential up-and-down swingman type with the ceiling of a back-end starter. Stuff could also play in a bullpen role, where he could cut down his arsenal as his secondary pitches are all inconsistent. Development of secondary pitches and command will be key for him to stick in the rotation, and scouts are skeptical of that development happening. Shows confidence and pitches with some swagger. Splitter development is an interesting new wrinkle that gives him a better chance to profile in a multi-inning role.

[Playing Catch]

Very happy with this trade. Urias has been getting squeezed for playing time, and his limitations are kind of irritating limitations (e.g. speed, baserunning, contact, arm, inability to play SS). You trade 2.5 years of control of a UTL for 6 years of a guy with backend bullpen upside.

I had higher expectations for Urias coming into the season. I was on record not believing that there was much difference between him and other options, but I really liked what Anderson brought to the team with his skillset and ability to play really, really good defense at two positions (it's really nice from a roster-perspective to have a guy that can play IF AND OF). I hope they re-sign Anderson for next season, allowing Black to get some more reps at 3rd next season in the minors as well as better gauge the timetables for Adams, Wilken and Boeve.

[TBBrewCrew]

I think that people are selling Luis short based on a 2023 that has likely been hampered by a hamstring injury. He had our 3rd highest positional bWAR in 2021 and our 2nd highest positional bWAR in 2022.

 

2021 (570 PA): .249, 23 hr, 75rbi, .789 OPS (OPS+ 112), 3.3 bWAR, 2.1fWAR - 24 Years Old

2022 (472 PA): .239, 16 hr, 47 rbi, .739 OPS (OPS+ 110), 3.1 bWAR, 2.3fWAR. - 25 Years Old

 

His career with the Brewers came to an end because he dove head-first into 1B in his 1st at bat of the year. It was a shame. I would take a 3WAR guy any day of the week and he was average if not above average on defense at 3B too. 

I'm all in on Blalock now, however, and wish Luis the best of luck in Boston.

[homer]

3 minutes ago, TBBrewCrew said:

I think that people are selling Luis short based on a 2023 that has likely been hampered by a hamstring injury. He had our 3rd highest positional bWAR in 2021 and our 2nd highest positional bWAR in 2022.

 

2021 (570 PA): .249, 23 hr, 75rbi, .789 OPS (OPS+ 112), 3.3 bWAR, 2.1fWAR - 24 Years Old

2022 (472 PA): .239, 16 hr, 47 rbi, .739 OPS (OPS+ 110), 3.1 bWAR, 2.3fWAR. - 25 Years Old

 

His career with the Brewers came to an end because he dove head-first into 1B in his 1st at bat of the year. It was a shame. I would take a 3WAR guy any day of the week and he was average if not above average on defense at 3B too. 

I'm all in on Blalock now, however, and wish Luis the best of luck in Boston.

Welcome to the board!

[Oxy]

21 minutes ago, TBBrewCrew said:

I think that people are selling Luis short based on a 2023 that has likely been hampered by a hamstring injury.

Maybe...but clearly the coaching staff saw something they really didn't like this year and preferred other options (AM, AT, OM) to Luis.  Depth is nice to have, but not THAT much depth and he was on the bottom of the totem pole.

[RobDeer 45]

I just came to say I'll miss him.  He always seemed happy and having fun out there.  I wish him nothing but good luck in his new place and hope he can get his mojo back.

[CheezWizHed]

2 hours ago, TBBrewCrew said:

I think that people are selling Luis short based on a 2023 that has likely been hampered by a hamstring injury. He had our 3rd highest positional bWAR in 2021 and our 2nd highest positional bWAR in 2022.

 

2021 (570 PA): .249, 23 hr, 75rbi, .789 OPS (OPS+ 112), 3.3 bWAR, 2.1fWAR - 24 Years Old

2022 (472 PA): .239, 16 hr, 47 rbi, .739 OPS (OPS+ 110), 3.1 bWAR, 2.3fWAR. - 25 Years Old

 

His career with the Brewers came to an end because he dove head-first into 1B in his 1st at bat of the year. It was a shame. I would take a 3WAR guy any day of the week and he was average if not above average on defense at 3B too. 

I'm all in on Blalock now, however, and wish Luis the best of luck in Boston.

First, Welcome to the board!

Second, I doubt people sell him short.  We all saw what he could do and potentially could be again.  I tend to think the FO sold low because of injuries and other similar options. 

And Blalock as a return isn't bad.  I'm guessing a  2023 Adrian Houser floor (5th/6th SP, multi-inning RP), albeit with his own injury issues. 

Certainly a change of scenery trade. 

[adambr2]

It blows my mind how fast this board changed its tune on Luis Urias. Just last year he was a 3.1 WAR player. Just a few short months ago some had him pegged as team MVP. The consensus from most is that he was a key cog of our infield, we won the Grisham trade, etc. etc.

Literally a mere 55 ABs later returning from a significant injury and now we're just thrilled to have him gone for anything we can get.

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

3 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

It blows my mind how fast this board changed its tune on Luis Urias. Just last year he was a 3.1 WAR player. Just a few short months ago some had him pegged as team MVP. The consensus from most is that he was a key cog of our infield, we won the Grisham trade, etc. etc.

Literally a mere 55 ABs later returning from a significant injury and now we're just thrilled to have him gone for anything we can get.

 

I'm not. He's a talented player. Brewers sold extremely low, and that sucks. I thought Urias was the 2B of the future. The fact that they are giving up on him now makes me think that they are perhaps trying to sign Adames to an extension, which would keep Turang at 2B.

Hopefully Blalock ends up being something.  

[brewers888]

3 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I'm not. He's a talented player. Brewers sold extremely low, and that sucks. I thought Urias was the 2B of the future. The fact that they are giving up on him now makes me think that they are perhaps trying to sign Adames to an extension, which would keep Turang at 2B.

Hopefully Blalock ends up being something.  

This team should have no interest in paying anywhere near market prices for Adames.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

4 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

This team should have no interest in paying anywhere near market prices for Adames.

I don't know if I necessarily disagree with you. But I wouldn't be surprised if that's what's happening.

[RWeeksFan23]

One thing about Urias you have to remember is there's a third aspect of the game besides offense and defense. It's speed/baserunning.

Urias was really lacking in that area. One of the slowest 'skinny' in-their-prime players you'll ever see.

[yourout]

He was basically a mid-level utility guy and now that the NL has the DH the demand for utility guys has all but disappeared.

Will be interesting to see if a different franchise can fix his mechanical issues at the plate.

[LouisEly]

3 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Certainly a change of scenery trade. 

I think it was an expiring asset trade. 

The Brewers knew that they weren't going to bring back Urias at ~$5M next year, and the delta between Urias and Monasterio/Toro/Miller is negligable, so the Brewers took an expiring asset and traded it for an asset with three option years remaining.

[Playing Catch]

18 hours ago, adambr2 said:

It blows my mind how fast this board changed its tune on Luis Urias. Just last year he was a 3.1 WAR player. Just a few short months ago some had him pegged as team MVP. The consensus from most is that he was a key cog of our infield, we won the Grisham trade, etc. etc.

Literally a mere 55 ABs later returning from a significant injury and now we're just thrilled to have him gone for anything we can get.

 

I think this is a fair observation toward my own views of Urias. But Urias is making $4.7M this season. Would someone really want to pay him nearly $5M next season? I mean, Brian Anderson is only making $3.5M.

Additionally, I don't view Blalock as "... anything we can get." I think the Brewers see a guy who is destined to pitch in the big leagues sooner rather than later, and that he's got good upside. Anytime you can get a cheap guy that can contribute to the big league club in a trade for an expensive guy that can't, that's probably a good trade.

(Edit to add: "Basically what LouisEly said.)

[Jopal78]

The middle infielders in Boston are old friend Pablo Reyes, Christian Arroyo and Yu Chang, they sent Urias to AAA. That Boston does not view Urias  as an immediate upgrade to that trifecta explains why the Brewers were only able to get a 22 year old pitcher who has yet to advance beyond A-ball but is Rule 5 eligible this winter (and one that the Boston media wrote nary a word about in their articles on the trade) 

As pointed out by others, it looks like the Brewers trimming some costs in ‘23 with a player who is no longer in their long term plans. Boston gets some a middle infielder who could still bounce back to being a productive player in time and can more easily afford to take the financial risk in seeing if he can do it. 
 

[jerichoholicninja]

The Red Sox left Urias in the minors when their current middle infielders are all OPS'ing under .700. I think that should tell us a little bit about what teams think of him.

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs ranked the prospects traded at the deadline...

Bradley Blalock (#15), Justin Jarvis (#23), Jhonny Severino (#27), Evan McKendry (#45)

[Jopal78]

21 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

FanGraphs ranked the prospects traded at the deadline...

Bradley Blalock (#15), Justin Jarvis (#23), Jhonny Severino (#27), Evan McKendry (#45)

A real bear market this year based on quality of prospects traded at the deadline if Blalock was the 15th best. 

Fangraphs pegged Blalock’s FV at 40 which they define as a backend starter 5.00 FIP pitcher. (Best FV on any player traded was 50 or ‘average everyday player’).

Urias being shipped out really was just to offset some of the payroll they took on with the other three.

[CheeseheadInQC]

30 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

A real bear market this year based on quality of prospects traded at the deadline if Blalock was the 15th best. 

Fangraphs pegged Blalock’s FV at 40 which they define as a backend starter 5.00 FIP pitcher. (Best FV on any player traded was 50 or ‘average everyday player’).

Urias being shipped out really was just to offset some of the payroll they took on with the other three.

So were the trades to the Brewers salary dumps too since he was rated above Severino and Jarvis? There’s also a difference between a 40 low risk triple A guy and a high risk 40 pitcher in A ball with a lot of upward (and downward) variance in possible results.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

So were the trades to the Brewers salary dumps too since he was rated above Severino and Jarvis? There’s also a difference between a 40 low risk triple A guy and a high risk 40 pitcher in A ball with a lot of upward (and downward) variance in possible results.

Well, obviously. What is the main reason  non-competitive teams trade away veterans in the first place?… to trim payroll.

And before you bring up, Steve Cohen, it’s impossible to know what the Mets are doing because they are paid more now for former players than they are current Mets.

As for Blalock, again obviously if he was in AA his FV would probably be higher. But the statheads at FanGraphs placed his future value at 40 based on what they see right now and in the context of the difficulty of the climb from A ball to the major leagues. What they see is a guy who looks like a backend starter, 5.00 FIP pitcher. He could prove them wrong. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

53 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Well, obviously. What is the main reason  non-competitive teams trade away veterans in the first place?… to trim payroll.

And before you bring up, Steve Cohen, it’s impossible to know what the Mets are doing because they are paid more now for former players than they are current Mets.

As for Blalock, the statheads at FanGraphs placed his future value at 40; they could end up wrong but since these types analytics are their business I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt. 

1. It was 40+ which is basically a 42.5 since they don’t have 40- that I am aware of.

2. They also give risk degree as a metric with the high risk players more likely to exceed expectations or fall well short while the low ones are expected to be pretty much at that level. Blalock is high. Sometimes those 40-level A ballers progress. You stack as many of those guys as you can, especially ones you think are underrated, and work to develop them into 50+ guys. 

3. Saving money is a benefit, but so is getting the prospects.

[Team Canada]

4 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

3. Saving money is a benefit, but so is getting the prospects.

Yeah, I agree with the latter. I don't think teams are trading veterans to save money (generally), the point is they're going to be free agents, and so you should get something for them, whatever that is. It's simple maximization of return.

[sveumrules]

Since hitting a pair of grand slams a month ago, Urias has batted 180/339/240 (70 wRC+) over 62 PA with the Red Sox.

His overall Boston line is 210/340/333 (88 wRC+) in 98 PA.

On 8/2/2023 at 3:36 PM, RWeeksFan23 said:

One thing about Urias you have to remember is there's a third aspect of the game besides offense and defense. It's speed/baserunning.

Urias was really lacking in that area. One of the slowest 'skinny' in-their-prime players you'll ever see.

Truly mind boggling how his wheels fell off. Went from a sprint speed of 28.0 ft/s (75th percentile) in 2018 to 26.1 ft/s (21st percentile) this year.

He’s essentially gone from being as fast as Yelich to being as slow as Santana.