Brewers (Burnes) vs Cubs (Steele): 8/29/23, 7:05pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

This should be a great pitcher's duel, which means it will probably end as a 10-9 barnburner.

[Jake McKibbin]

Steele has struggled a little more of late... I think this may entirely depend on whether Cy Burnes turns up. Deserves some leeway his last start for the soaking ball, but the two before that were a little fortunate in ways compared to his previous month of excellence. If he's nails I think the Brewers take this one

[treego14]

[Fear The Chorizo]

20 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Steele has struggled a little more of late... I think this may entirely depend on whether Cy Burnes turns up. Deserves some leeway his last start for the soaking ball, but the two before that were a little fortunate in ways compared to his previous month of excellence. If he's nails I think the Brewers take this one

He is also already 20 IP over his previous season-long career high - definitely think that's related to his recent struggles, although it's not like he's been a pumpkin either.  For the Cubs to make a run they're going to need to lean on him hard and hope he doesn't break down, especially with Stroman injured (and prior to that struggling mightily himself).

[rluzinski]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

He is also already 20 IP over his previous season-long career high - definitely think that's related to his recent struggles, although it's not like he's been a pumpkin either. 

Doesn't look like he has lost any velo on his fastball yet, so no obvious signs of him fatiguing.

[wibadgers23]

Just take one of these next two and you’re up 5 games with 29 to go and feeling pretty comfortable.

[treego14]

3 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Just take one of these next two and you’re up 5 games with 29 to go and feeling pretty comfortable.

Win 'em both and we are up 7 ... with only one more needed for free burgers at George Webb!  Keep the Brewers Storm churning!

[AKCheesehead]

FYI for folks out of market, tonight's game is on TBS.

[RobertCrawley]

Just keep hitting!

[Underachiever]

1 hour ago, treego14 said:

Win 'em both and we are up 7 ... with only one more needed for free burgers at George Webb!  Keep the Brewers Storm churning!

And have the tie breaker!

 

[TURBO]

Screw winning 1 or 2 from this series! 

I WANT THEM ALL!

[KeithStone53151]

It boggles my mind that Steele is an effective pitcher, and nobody will change my mind about that. He's clearly getting it done, but it defies everything I've ever seen regarding successful pitching. With Burnes on the mound we definitely have a great shot to guarantee a series win tonight. I'm expecting a very very heavy RH lineup today. Steele has had reverse splits this year, better numbers against RHH than LHH. CC has shown a complete inability to comprehend reverse splits...so naturally Frelick/Turang/Tellez will all hit the bench today(unless Santana is unavailable).

[BruisedCrew]

25 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Steele has had reverse splits this year, better numbers against RHH than LHH. CC has shown a complete inability to comprehend reverse splits...so naturally Frelick/Turang/Tellez will all hit the bench today(unless Santana is unavailable).

I’ve often seen comments to the effect that Counsell is clueless with respect to reverse splits.

So, what do you do in the situation in which the pitcher has reverse splits (at least for this season if not his career) and one of your hitters has “normal” splits?

For example, should Counsell ignore that Turang has had trouble hitting LHP and put him in against Steele, or should he play a RH hitter who has had much more success against LHP? Same for playing Frelick or Tellez.

Or do you try to slice things deeper and try to see how some of the hitters have done against other pitchers with reverse splits, at which point you might have trouble having a significant sample size. 

I suspect that Counsell does not have a complete inability to comprehend reverse splits. I just think there’s more to it than completely letting the opposing starting pitcher’s splits dictate your lineup. 

My guess is that Turang will be in the lineup tonight if only because of his defense, and that Santana will be in if he’s available.

BTW, I wonder if some LHP SP might have reverse splits because opponents only use their best LH hitters against them. 

 

[Brewcrew82]

32 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

It boggles my mind that Steele is an effective pitcher, and nobody will change my mind about that. He's clearly getting it done, but it defies everything I've ever seen regarding successful pitching. With Burnes on the mound we definitely have a great shot to guarantee a series win tonight. I'm expecting a very very heavy RH lineup today. Steele has had reverse splits this year, better numbers against RHH than LHH. CC has shown a complete inability to comprehend reverse splits...so naturally Frelick/Turang/Tellez will all hit the bench today(unless Santana is unavailable).

Wouldn't be shocked to see Canha at 1B tonight if Santana is unavailable again. Remember, DH will be Contreras due to Caratini catching Burnes.

Yelich LF

Contreras DH

Canha 1B

Adames SS

Monasterio 3B

Frelick/Taylor RF

Caratini C

Wiemer CF

Turang 2B (Like why have Anderson on the roster at this point if he's not going to play against LHP?) 

If Santana can go, then you'd probably be able to get away with Canha in RF in Wrigley. So, something like: 

Yelich LF

Contreras DH

Santana 1B

Adames SS

Canha RF

Monasterio 3B

Caratini C

Wiemer/Frelick CF

Turang 2B 

I really like the look of that lineup.

[KeithStone53151]

5 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I’ve often seen comments to the effect that Counsell is clueless with respect to reverse splits.

So, what do you do in the situation in which the pitcher has reverse splits (at least for this season if not his career) and one of your hitters has “normal” splits?

For example, should Counsell ignore that Turang has had trouble hitting LHP and put him in against Steele, or should he play a RH hitter who has had much more success against LHP? Same for playing Frelick or Tellez.

Or do you try to slice things deeper and try to see how some of the hitters have done against other pitchers with reverse splits, at which point you might have trouble having a significant sample size. 

I suspect that Counsell does not have a complete inability to comprehend reverse splits. I just think there’s more to it than completely letting the opposing starting pitcher’s splits dictate your lineup. 

My guess is that Turang will be in the lineup tonight if only because of his defense, and that Santana will be in if he’s available.

 

You're making this a bit too serious, but at the end of the day his biggest blunder with splits involved batting Hiura almost exclusively against LHP despite being one of the best hitters in baseball specifically against RHP a couple years back.

As for Turang, I will attribute a good chunk of his struggles against LHP specifically to barely seeing them. He's had 50 PA against LHP compared to 310 vs RHP. He was protected early on in the season from LHP, which made his struggles when he eventually saw them inevitable. He needed to play everyday and face lefties in April/May/June. We're quickly approaching the point in the season where only results matter...whereas development matters almost zero. Now CC is facing a dilemma of whether to put Turang in against lefties to keep his defense in the lineup, or roll the better hitting monasterio who is not the same defender. Worth noting, Turang had negligible splits in the minors against RH vs LH. 

[willie key]

No wiemer.     That kid should be in the minors 

[markedman5]

If anybody thinks CC is setting the lineup without lots of input from the analytics department I’m not sure what to tell you.

ultimately he has the final decision but the Brewers strike me as a very collaborative operation……..in all aspects of the team.

 

[Brewcrew82]

37 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

If anybody thinks CC is setting the lineup without lots of input from the analytics department I’m not sure what to tell you.

ultimately he has the final decision but the Brewers strike me as a very collaborative operation……..in all aspects of the team.

 

I like how we're in the midst of a 9 game winning streak, with CC being almost universally hailed as the best manager in the game, and you still have posters complaining about his lineups and using words like "clueless" in reference to him. 

[Bulldogboy]

Will be interesting to see if Wiemer is in the lineup tonight. Ditto for Anderson. If not might as well send them out and bring up Toro or maybe Owen Miller. 

[KeithStone53151]

10 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Will be interesting to see if Wiemer is in the lineup tonight. Ditto for Anderson. If not might as well send them out and bring up Toro or maybe Owen Miller. 

Regarding Wiemer, I get that he's not hitting and will probably not be a productive hitter much of the rest of the way. That said, he has a very viable role as a defense/speed guy. I'm not sure sending him down to AAA is the call. They also might wait until after Sept 1 so he's eligible for the postseason roster...then send him down for a little tuning.

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Regarding Wiemer, I get that he's not hitting and will probably not be a productive hitter much of the rest of the way. That said, he has a very viable role as a defense/speed guy. I'm not sure sending him down to AAA is the call. They also might wait until after Sept 1 so he's eligible for the postseason roster...then send him down for a little tuning.

Wiemer's still eligible for the postseason regardless as he's on the 40 man. 

[nate82]

52 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Regarding Wiemer, I get that he's not hitting and will probably not be a productive hitter much of the rest of the way. That said, he has a very viable role as a defense/speed guy. I'm not sure sending him down to AAA is the call. They also might wait until after Sept 1 so he's eligible for the postseason roster...then send him down for a little tuning.

Sigh every year this gets asked about postseason eligibility and this hasn't changed in a long time.  Here are the rules for postseason eligibility:

Quote

any player who is on the 40-man roster or 60-day injured list as of 11:59 p.m. ET on Aug. 31 is eligible for the postseason.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/postseason-roster-rules-eligibility

[KeithStone53151]

3 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Sigh every year this gets asked about postseason eligibility and this hasn't changed in a long time.  Here are the rules for postseason eligibility:

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/postseason-roster-rules-eligibility

Apologies for causing you such hardship..

[Underachiever]

Sometimes people get frustrated when they see somebody demonstrate a "complete inability to comprehend" something and they express it poorly.

[nate82]

14 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Apologies for causing you such hardship..

That wasn't pointed at you mostly just disappointed this has to be posted every year to clarify.  The rules haven't changed in a long time either other than going from 25 to 26.