NL Wild Card Race

[Jake McKibbin]

16 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

The Cubs are on the losing end of tiebreakers against the D-backs, Reds, Marlins and Phillies, giving all of those teams the advantage if they were to finish the season in a tie with Chicago.

source

Yikes.. this may hurt them

Marlins have so many injuries right now or that'd help

The Reds can't seem to build momentum.

But that final week of games for Chicago could be tight, especially against I'm guessing the Braves frontline starters? They may also give them more innings because of the length of break between then and the NLDS

[BruisedCrew]

Obviously it’s extremely unlikely, but how crazy would it be if the Padres won out and grabbed a wild card spot?  They’re now only one game behind the Giants.

They could get to 84-78 and they would need the Cubs and Marlins to go no better than 4-5 and the Reds to go no better than 5-4.

[sveumrules]

11 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

Obviously it’s extremely unlikely, but how crazy would it be if the Padres won out and grabbed a wild card spot?  They’re now only one game behind the Giants.

They could get to 84-78 and they would need the Cubs and Marlins to go no better than 4-5 and the Reds to go no better than 5-4.

Just won their 8th straight. Record is finally catching up to their run differential.

FanGraphs had a nice deep dive on their chances.

[Outlander]

Too many teams to overtake. One team can collapse but not three 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Well, the Reds and Marlins clearly have a schedule advantage over the last six. DBacks are going to be playing against the Astros last series, and it looks like both teams will have something to play for. Cubs obviously will depend on how hard Atlanta is trying and how much Milwaukee wants to avoid the Cubs. Maybe we throw Peralta Friday, but I don't think either Burnes or Woody will participate in that series.

Further down, Padres and Giants play each other. Unless somebody sweeps, I'd think both teams are out (and I still think both are chasing too many teams).

A more-likely-than-you-think scenario is the DBacks (who now have to play 8 straight) and Cubs both missing out. 3-5 (or 3-4 in the Cubs case) is totally conceivable for both those teams, while the Reds and Marlins go 6-2.

 

[MoreTrife]

I'll be so insanely anxious if we play the Cubs in Wildcard round. I'll be so disappointed too. I was going to go to one game and being overrun with bleeping Cubs fans will be miserable. Not sure I can do it.

[rickh150]

3 minutes ago, MoreTrife said:

I'll be so insanely anxious if we play the Cubs in Wildcard round. I'll be so disappointed too. I was going to go to one game and being overrun with bleeping Cubs fans will be miserable. Not sure I can do it.

Just don’t buy and sell to Cubs fans… ultimate betrayal.

[owbc]

1 hour ago, rickh150 said:

Just don’t buy and sell to Cubs fans… ultimate betrayal.

The WC games aren’t sold out so the Cubs fans can just buy from the Brewers website. 
 

 

[Frisbee Slider]

Reds lose to Pittsburgh after leading 9-0. 

Giants and Padres also lose.

Marlins travel to New York and Pittsburgh after today. Pirates have been pesky.

[Frisbee Slider]

Should be a very exciting conclusion to the season.

Marlins currently hold the final wild card spot. Miami has one more against Mets and at pesky Pittsburgh.

Cubs playing inspired baseball and throwing Stroman today. Stroman has pitched fewer than 4 IP in six appearances since July 15. 

 

[Jake McKibbin]

1 minute ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Should be a very exciting conclusion to the season.

Marlins currently hold the final wild card spot. Miami has one more against Mets and at pesky Pittsburgh.

Cubs playing inspired baseball and throwing Stroman today. Stroman has pitched fewer than 4 IP in six appearances since July 15. 

 

It'd be delicious watching one/both these teams lose their aces on final day, particularly given Marlins injuries and Cubs lack of depth how important those players are

[Brewcrew82]

18 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

It'd be delicious watching one/both these teams lose their aces on final day, particularly given Marlins injuries and Cubs lack of depth how important those players are

Just gotta hope it stays tied or Cubs up one game until the end of play on Saturday. 

[Outlander]

On 9/23/2023 at 11:31 PM, owbc said:

The WC games aren’t sold out so the Cubs fans can just buy from the Brewers website. 
 

 

Exactly, get the feeling it isn't selling. well. My check in offer for going to the Cardinals game was discounted tickets to the Wild Card games.

[owbc]

3 hours ago, Outlander said:

Exactly, get the feeling it isn't selling. well. My check in offer for going to the Cardinals game was discounted tickets to the Wild Card games.

Last I checked it looked like there were about 35,000 tickets sold and what was left was all in the terrace. If I was going to go I would wait for the resale market at this point, as soon as they announce the games will be at like 1 PM on a weekday it will be easy to get better seats for cheap. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

So, going into the final three, the Cubs will need to gain a game on the Marlins to make the playoffs. They may need to gain two, depending on the finish of the Marlins-Mets game. Marlins took a 2-1 lead in the top of the ninth, currently in a rain delay, doesn't look like there's much of a window to finish tonight. Might mean they have to play half an inning in New York on Monday.

The Reds are a game and a half out, a game behind the Cubs.

At this point, my desire to avoid the Cubs is mostly emotional. I just don't want those stakes. Objectively, though, the Marlins, Reds, and Cubs are all deeply flawed teams (Cubs maybe most of all giving the lack of pitching options).

Best case scenario for the Brewers is probably something involving the Marlins having to play an inning on Monday and then fly to Milwaukee to play in the WC series. That's a tough scenario to make happen, though, since the Marlins hold tiebreakers over the Reds and Cubs and in case of a three-way tiebreaker. They would only have to finish that game if a) they can't finish tonight and b) they finish a half game behind somebody. Still, I think I'd rather play the Marlins than anyone, if only to help maintain Central Division bragging rights no matter what.

I'd prefer to win this Cubs series, then let the chips fall where they may. That makes it pretty unlikely the Cubs come to Milwaukee. Though I do think we'll be decent-sized favorites over all three likely opponents (and slim ones over the D-Backs should they get swept this weekend).

[Frisbee Slider]

Let’s take 2 of 3 from the Cubs and assume the Marlins will take 2 of 3 from Pittsburgh. 

[YelichPosse]

This is shaking out perfectly.
 

The Cubs are floundering. We probably can grab a win or two even with just getting work in.

The Marlins are in the drivers seat. If they falter, they have to go make up an inning Monday then come here… couldn’t ask for a better scenario from our perspective.

[Jake McKibbin]

2 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Let’s take 2 of 3 from the Cubs and assume the Marlins will take 2 of 3 from Pittsburgh. 

Best case is the Marlins lose the first two, it'd be great to give them zero rest time for the playoffs and use up those starter arms. that's a heavily injured ball club already, and you can see how worn down the Cubs currently look. Cubs have a great shot given the Brewers starters in this series, but Marlins definitely have the advantage now

[sveumrules]

Cubs lost all three to the Braves?

Could have sworn I heard somewhere those games weren’t even going to be all that hard for Chicago since Atlanta was already going to be coasting on a wave of malaise by then.

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Cubs lost all three to the Braves?

Could have sworn I heard somewhere those games weren’t even going to be all that hard for Chicago since Atlanta was already going to be coasting on a wave of malaise by then.

Oh, you definitely heard it. Non-coincidentally, from the same people that said the Cubs (and the Reds and Cardinals before them) were going to overtake us and win the division. Or at the very least be making us soil our pants this weekend. 

[areacodes]

14 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Oh, you definitely heard it. Non-coincidentally, from the same people that said the Cubs (and the Reds and Cardinals before them) were going to overtake us and win the division. Or at the very least be making us soil our pants this weekend. 

Hey now, that’s not fair… the Pirates were involved in that conversation for like a week or two too.

[Frisbee Slider]

Pirates leading Marlins, 3-0. I don’t think this will be an easy series for Miami.

Pittsburgh has played well the past two weeks.

[wiguy94]

Just now, Frisbee Slider said:

Pirates leading Marlins, 3-0. I don’t think this will be an easy series for Miami.

Pittsburgh has played well the past two weeks.

WC3 spot coming down to the final game of the season would be great for the Brewers. Burn those good relievers and starters this weekend!

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Marlins might just slide right past the Dbacks and leave the Brewers with a matchup vs Arizona. Miami holds the tiebreaker between the two. And suddenly the Reds are in the picture as well

[Outlander]

Any word on if that Monday game is played if it just impacts seeding? Would also like to avoid the Diamondbacks if possible. That Astros/Diamondbacks series is huge, will impact both leagues.