Robert Murray on Brewers and CC

[Fear The Chorizo]

10 hours ago, sveumrules said:

I don’t believe the tools available to attempt to judge manager performance are anywhere near good enough to say anyone is thee best or definitively Top 3.

The main points in favor of Counsell being considered among the better managers in the game would be his regular season success facing a significant payroll disadvantage and the fact that he is clearly coveted within the industry.

His lack of postseason success is ten games spread out over six years. Not a very reliable sample. 

Counting game 163, Counsell started his postseason career 7-3. Turns out those ten games had minimal predictive power over his next ten postseason games. Just like his last ten will likely have minimal predictive power over the next ten.

That the Brewers have played the 8th most playoff games in MLB since 2018 speaks way more to Counsell’s perceived managerial ability, or teams wouldn’t be pursuing him and maybe offering him top level compensation in the first place.

I don't disagree that he's a good manager...but the flip side of all these points is how much of this "get into the postseason" success is tied directly to the division the Brewers play in over the last few years? That payroll disadvantage isn't nearly as dramatic in the NL Central - particularly in seasons before 2022 when they had unbalanced schedules facing the constantly rebuilding Pirates and Reds along with rebuilding Cub teams since 2019.  

And being 8th best in terms of postseason games played actually sounds pretty poor considering most of the playoff fields each year have 10-12 teams in it, and the Brewers have been in the postseason all but one of those seasons.  That stretch includes their NLCS run to game 7 against the LAD, since then they've been just plain bad in the playoffs.  After the 2018 season, there was a clear window for the Brewers to be consistent contenders in the NL Central based on where the other teams in the division were at with their rosters - here we are 5 seasons later and the Brewers haven't advanced beyond the initial round of the 4 postseason berths they earned while being one of the best 2 teams in the NL Central, which has been considered the weakest of the 3 NL divisions each of those years.

I think Counsell's biggest strength as a manager is bullpen management, and doing so using the full 40 man roster with cycling arms between AAA and MLB along with maximizing the value his best relievers provide the ballclub.  I think his biggest weakness is related to putting lineups together that go beyond being handcuffed by the personnel he gets to choose from.  It's yet to be seen how he can manage a team in an outsized market with outsized personalities and way more pressure to win it all than Milwaukee ever will have, and I'm not sure he's cut out for that type of a situation just based on his personality....and I think he'd be the 1st to say the same.

[BrewerFan]

Is the "we'll see how they do in the big market," not ALWAYS levied at a Milwaukee Star...and when they end up in a big market, they almost always seem to be embraced and have success? 

I don't see a reasonable argument that Counsell can manage a bad team, but now when the really hard questions and higher expectations come, he'll just crumble. 

This isn't "Soup pitched well tonight," he's pretty open and upfront when it comes to his team's shortcomings and his own team's shortcomings.

Why do we think Boone is fine in that regard, but Counsell will...what, collapse under the pressure? Seems unlikely. 

[TURBO]

18 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I wonder how CC would feel watching another manager lead the Brewers to their first World Series, when he had the opportunity to do so and probably get a statue/his number retired/HOF, etc....He's stated in the past how he feels like that's the only thing he has left to accomplish in baseball, and that statement would all of a sudden feel really hollow. 

Ultimately, the team will be fine one way or another due to my belief in this FO and the remarkable talent pipeline they've developed. But I can't say there won't be any sore feelings whatsoever on my end if he leaves us hanging to join forces with Cohen and Stearns, especially if Attanasio is willing to be competitive salary-wise. It's pretty natural imo. 

1st World Series?

Ummmmmmmmmmmmmm...

[MrTPlush]

5 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

It's like people think Counsell has had some juggernaut roster every year. Go look at some of the rosters he's had in his time here. It's always been a pieced together rotation or a cobbled together lineup - one or the other. The Brewers have had 5 managers who took the team to the postseason. Counsell has more playoff seasons that the other 4 managers combined.

Not only that but you all literally have the other teams who want to interview him as input as to what other MLB people think of him. Hopefully this is just about setting the market, which he indeed will. Counsell is worth more than some middle reliever, getting more out of his rosters than even the Brewers own modeling expects. But what's really hilarious are the people that think he's just a analytic robot who can replaced by another stats guy who will get the same result. Goldfish-like memories around here

This guy hasn't had a cobbled up rotation his entire competitive tenure and has had a mind boggling bullpen the entire time. The closest to that would be 2018.

If you are going to be condescending, at least find something provable. Not sit here and claim everything good is an attribute to Counsell managing the team even though it very well might have nothing to do with Counsell. Are we outplaying our projections because of Counsell or because we have elite pitching (notably bullpen arms) to win a ridiculously abnormal number of close games? Literally no one here knows the impact Counsell does or does not have. Definitely a good impact, but past that it is quite a gray area. 

There is 100% many guys out there that could manage just as well as Counsell, if not better. The problem is, it isn't exactly easy to figure out who they are. A lot of these guys seem good at face value (especially the former player types) and some end up not so great in the grand scheme. It isn't a matter if we can or can't find someone to do a similar job for half the price...we can. It is whether or not it is worth risking ending up with someone notably worse trying to save $5mil or whatever that price may be. I am definitely in the camp of paying him and not finding out what the alternative is...but then again, I am not the one who needs to pony up the likely $5mil+ a year more to do so. 

Counsell is just like anyone else on the payroll. $7mil guy is better, but is he so much better than the guy for $2.5mil? Are the results outweighing the additional cost? That is the question. The Brewers can easily afford to pay Counsell...but they may not feel his added value is worth the added cost. 

[MrTPlush]

10 minutes ago, TURBO said:

1st World Series?

Ummmmmmmmmmmmmm...

To be fair...you gotta be pushing like 60 years old to have been an adult when they went last time...

[sveumrules]

15 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

This guy hasn't had a cobbled up rotation his entire competitive tenure and has had a mind boggling bullpen the entire time. The closest to that would be 2018.

2018 rotation was 20th by FIP based WAR. Games Started were Jhoulys Chacin (35), Chase Anderson (30), Junior Guerra (26), Brent Suter (18), Wade Miley (16), Freddy Peralta (14) and Zach Davies (13). Luckily the defense put up +121 DRS (2nd in MLB) so their runs allowed based WAR (15th) was a little more respectable.

2019 rotation was again 20th by FIP based WAR and 16th by runs allowed based WAR.

Rotation didn't break out for a full season until 2021 (2nd in both fWAR and rWAR), they regressed in 2022 (13th in both fWAR and rWAR) then bounced back somewhat this year (13th in fWAR but 4th in rWAR) but again were somewhat bailed out by the defense with +68 DRS (2nd). 

 

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I don't disagree that he's a good manager...but the flip side of all these points is how much of this "get into the postseason" success is tied directly to the division the Brewers play in over the last few years? 

From 2018-2023 Brewers are 6th in wins in MLB, Cardinals are 9th so they've had some pretty good direct competition. Cubs were still spending big when the Brewers had their success in 2018 and 2019.

Reds (22nd) and Pirates (26th) have been bad over that stretch but nothing compared to the dregs of the ALC with KCR (30th), DET (29th) and even CHW only 19th. Yet CLE is still twenty wins behind the Brewers over that stretch, the Twins are 44 wins back.

If divisional strength was such a large factor you'd think CLE/MIN would be ahead of MIL/STL, but the opposite is the case. 

[True Blue Brew Crew]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

This guy hasn't had a cobbled up rotation his entire competitive tenure and has had a mind boggling bullpen the entire time. The closest to that would be 2018.

If you are going to be condescending, at least find something provable.

Oh really, not even once, huh. Here are the rotations he's had and their ERAs...

2016: Nelson (4.62) Davies (3.97) Chase Anderson (4.39) Wily Peralta (4.86) Junior Guerra (2.81) Matt Garza (4.51)

2017: Davies (3.90) Nelson (3.49) Anderson (2.74) Garza (4.94) Suter (3.42) Guerra (5.12)

2018: Chacin (3.50) Anderson (3.93) Guerra (4.09) Suter (4.44) Miley (2.57) F Peralta (4.25)

Counsell took that 2018 collection of aces to 96 wins and 1 game shy of the WS

2019: Davies (3.55) Anderson (4.21) Woodruff (3.62) Houser (3.72) Chacin (5.79) Gio Gonzalez (3.50)

2020: Woodruff (3.05) Burnes (2.11) Houser (5.30) Anderson (4.21) Lindblom (5.16) - 50 game season where the team batted .223

The past 3 years (2021-2023) Counsell has had some very fine rotations to work WITH but that's also exactly when the lineups went south batting .233 in '21, .235 in '22 and .240 in 2023

When the arms in the rotation arrived (2020), the lineup had everyday players like the following dragging the team down...

2020: Navarez .176 Smoak .186 Hiura .212 Sogard .209 Yelich .205 Ben Gamel .237

2021: Vogelbach .219 Yelich .248 Bradley Jr .163 Urias .249

2022: Caratini .199 Tellez .219 Adames .238 Jace Peterson .236 Taylor .233 McCutchen .237

2023: Turang .218 Adames .217 Anderson .226 Wiemer .204 Winker .199

So like I said, HE'S ALWAYS EITHER HAD A COBBLED TOGETHER ROTATION OR A PIECED TOGETHER LINEUP. Not one single year where he had a good to great lineup paired with a good to great rotation or vice versa. Yet he's taken those squads to 5 PLAYOFFS.

But you could simply have a memory and I shouldn't have had to plot all of this out. Again, goldfish-like memories.

 

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

To be fair...you gotta be pushing like 60 years old to have been an adult when they went last time...

Regardless, we have been to the World Series, so if we make it to another one in the next few tears, or anytime after, it would be the second appearance.  It's freakishly ridiculous to abandon that fact.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

From 2016-2019 Chase friggin Anderson was the #2 starter twice and the #3 starter twice. And Junior Guerra was in the rotation 3 straight years! Zach Davies was the #1 starter twice in that span. And that was right in the midst of when the team came the closest to only its second World Series. How do people forget so easily. A lesser manager easily might only get those squads to the playoffs once in these past 9 years.

[Fear The Chorizo]

41 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

From 2018-2023 Brewers are 6th in wins in MLB, Cardinals are 9th so they've had some pretty good direct competition. Cubs were still spending big when the Brewers had their success in 2018 and 2019.

Reds (22nd) and Pirates (26th) have been bad over that stretch but nothing compared to the dregs of the ALC with KCR (30th), DET (29th) and even CHW only 19th. Yet CLE is still twenty wins behind the Brewers over that stretch, the Twins are 44 wins back.

If divisional strength was such a large factor you'd think CLE/MIN would be ahead of MIL/STL, but the opposite is the case. 

Cleveland and Min have both been in short term retooling/rebuilds due to roster turnover over chunks of that 6 year stretch, too.  If not for a late season surge by MN the AL central winner this year could have been sub- 0.500.  Until this season, both the Pirates and Reds could be routinely counted on to lose about 100 times a season and be an afterthought in preseason predictions.

The Cubs still spent big in 2018-2019 because it was the aftermath of the buildup to their 2013-2017 seasons where they were truly trying to win it all and all the arbitration salary bills came due before they started trading everyone away.  The Cards have been the consistent biggest spender in a division they expect to be in contention for every season, so it's no surprise they have a top 10 win total in all of baseball despite an awful 2023.  The top two NL Central clubs the past 6-7 years have typically been the Brewers and either the Cards or Cubs....credit goes to Milwaukee for being that consistent top two team during that stretch, but how much of that goes to CC compared to the front office really is debatable in a division that hasn't had more than 1 team both spending big and wanting to contend each season.  Following their 2018 trip to the NLCS, EVERYTHING was set up for the Brewers to establish a stranglehold on the division and use it as a springboard for deep postseason runs - despite making the playoffs 4 of those 5 seasons that bite of the apple approach hasn't worked out them come October at all.  

Again, I'm not saying the lack of postseason success over the past 5 seasons is heavily influenced by CC being a bad playoff manager - however I I do think it's fair play to look at it negatively if we're going to also heap potentially underserving praise towards CC for managing a team that has consistently found ways to win ~90 games a regular season in one of baseball's two weakest divisions.  I don't know if the Brewers of the past 5 seasons win as many games had they been playing in the AL East of NL West over that stretch, and because of that they probably aren't in the playoffs 4 of those years in the first place.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't see a reasonable argument that Counsell can manage a bad team, but now when the really hard questions and higher expectations come, he'll just crumble. 

I guess my biggest counter to that is I really don't think the Brewers should be considered to be a bad team in terms of talent level on paper over a majority of Counsell's tenure as manager - particularly once they had Yelich in the fold and young, talented pitching across both the rotation and bullpen.  To me it's more about the environment surrounding a team in NY compared to the smallest market in MLB - sure, he could excel in that spot and be fantastic, but I don't see him as being the type of personality that thrives on that type of attention.  

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

1st World Series?

Ummmmmmmmmmmmmm...

Title. We haven’t won one last time I checked.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

1 minute ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I don't see a reasonable argument that Counsell can manage a bad team, but now when the really hard questions and higher expectations come, he'll just crumble. 

I guess my biggest counter to that is I really don't think the Brewers should be considered to be a bad team in terms of talent level on paper over a majority of Counsell's tenure as manager - particularly once they had Yelich in the fold and young, talented pitching across both the rotation and bullpen.  To me it's more about the environment surrounding a team in NY compared to the smallest market in MLB - sure, he could excel in that spot and be fantastic, but I don't see him as being the type of personality that thrives on that type of attention.  

Except when he finally had the young talented pitching, Yelich had already broken his kneecap and has never been the same since. The pitching arrived in 2020. Yelich's injury came at the end of 2019. When Counsell had the bats, Yelich, good Cain, good Hiura, good Aguilar, Braun, good Shaw, good Domingo Santana, etc, he was working with a misfit rotation.

I thought people knew this. It never overlapped.

[Brewcrew82]

24 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Regardless, we have been to the World Series, so if we make it to another one in the next few tears, or anytime after, it would be the second appearance.  It's freakishly ridiculous to abandon that fact.

Calm down. No one’s abandoning that fact. I forgot one word. It happens.

[MrTPlush]

30 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Oh really, not even once, huh. Here are the rotations he's had and their ERAs...

2016: Nelson (4.62) Davies (3.97) Chase Anderson (4.39) Wily Peralta (4.86) Junior Guerra (2.81) Matt Garza (4.51)

2017: Davies (3.90) Nelson (3.49) Anderson (2.74) Garza (4.94) Suter (3.42) Guerra (5.12)

2018: Chacin (3.50) Anderson (3.93) Guerra (4.09) Suter (4.44) Miley (2.57) F Peralta (4.25)

Counsell took that 2018 collection of aces to 96 wins and 1 game shy of the WS

2019: Davies (3.55) Anderson (4.21) Woodruff (3.62) Houser (3.72) Chacin (5.79) Gio Gonzalez (3.50)

2020: Woodruff (3.05) Burnes (2.11) Houser (5.30) Anderson (4.21) Lindblom (5.16) - 50 game season where the team batted .223

The past 3 years (2021-2023) Counsell has had some very fine rotations to work WITH but that's also exactly when the lineups went south batting .233 in '21, .235 in '22 and .240 in 2023

When the arms in the rotation arrived (2020), the lineup had everyday players like the following dragging the team down...

2020: Navarez .176 Smoak .186 Hiura .212 Sogard .209 Yelich .205 Ben Gamel .237

2021: Vogelbach .219 Yelich .248 Bradley Jr .163 Urias .249

2022: Caratini .199 Tellez .219 Adames .238 Jace Peterson .236 Taylor .233 McCutchen .237

2023: Turang .218 Adames .217 Anderson .226 Wiemer .204 Winker .199

So like I said, HE'S ALWAYS EITHER HAD A COBBLED TOGETHER ROTATION OR A PIECED TOGETHER LINEUP. Not one single year where he had a good to great lineup paired with a good to great rotation or vice versa. Yet he's taken those squads to 5 PLAYOFFS.

But you could simply have a memory and I shouldn't have had to plot all of this out. Again, goldfish-like memories.

 

I just want you to know, whatever this post says was an entire waste because the first thing I saw was a bunch of all caps bolded.

I mean, grow up man. Can't we have a legit conversation without childish behavior?

[MrTPlush]

33 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

From 2016-2019 Chase friggin Anderson was the #2 starter twice and the #3 starter twice. And Junior Guerra was in the rotation 3 straight years! Zach Davies was the #1 starter twice in that span. And that was right in the midst of when the team came the closest to only its second World Series. How do people forget so easily. A lesser manager easily might only get those squads to the playoffs once in these past 9 years.

Chase Anderson put up a 2.75 ERA...I mean, regardless, that is quite the production.

I guess you could say he has never had an elite team, but he also has never had resounding success either. I don't think one can underestimate the benefit of playing in one of only two divisions not loaded with massive payrolls. Put Counsell in any non central division and he probably doesn't own a single division title and maybe a fraction of the postseason appearances. The Brewers are lucky to be in the central so we know what any kind of success is.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

11 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I just want you to know, whatever this post says was an entire waste because the first thing I saw was a bunch of all caps bolded.

I mean, grow up man. Can't we have a legit conversation without childish behavior?

Lol. So in other words I completely refuted your point but because the most damning point was bolded and capitalized you didn't read it and everything is entirely dismissed. As always is the case with you, when you're proven wrong, there's some other reason to dismiss the other person's point. Exactly as expected.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

9 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Chase Anderson put up a 2.75 ERA...I mean, regardless, that is quite the production.

I guess you could say he has never had an elite team, but he also has never had resounding success either. I don't think one can underestimate the benefit of playing in one of only two divisions not loaded with massive payrolls. Put Counsell in any non central division and he probably doesn't own a single division title and maybe a fraction of the postseason appearances. The Brewers are lucky to be in the central so we know what any kind of success is.

And apparently coaxing that kind of season out of Chase Anderson had nothing to do with Craig Counsell. Year after year, in-spite of either a weak cast of pitchers or a weak cast of hitters, but never both sides of the ball strong at the same time, the man somehow got 5 playoff appearances out of them. But no, Counsell is nothing special. Brewers magic got those results out of those players.

[tmwiese55]

Even this year was generally a cobbled together rotation due Woodruff's injury.  You had Burnes/Peralta stable then scratched through the last 3 spots of injuries, AAAA guys, scapheap pick ups to get by.   In addition, Burnes/Peralta were just ok this year but they were stable all year.

To the comment that he's always had an elite bullpen. That is generally true. However, who is responsible for it? He has to get credit it for at least some of it.  They turn over the bullpen almost every year and the new guys each year that we've never heard of somehow consistently step in and take the places of the guys we all hated to lose.   Like going into this year the only 'known' was Williams. Yet, I had no concern what they/he would do to replace everyone would work out just fine. And it did. 

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Just now, tmwiese55 said:

Even this year was generally a cobbled together rotation due Woodruff's injury.  You had Burnes/Peralta stable then scratched through the last 3 spots of injuries, AAAA guys, scapheap pick ups to get by.   In addition, Burnes/Peralta were just ok this year but they were stable all year.

To the comment that he's always had an elite bullpen. That is generally true. However, who is responsible for it? He has to get credit it for at least some of it.  They turn over the bullpen almost every year and the new guys each year that we've never heard of somehow consistently step in and take the places of the guys we all hated to lose.   Like going into this year the only 'known' was Williams. Yet, I had no concern what they/he would do to replace everyone would work out just fine. And it di. 

Exactly. There's no sense even belaboring the bullpen because the assumption by so many is that CC has just had such a strong pen that an usher out of the stands could have deployed them to great success. No mind paid to other teams' castoffs that CC wound up getting high leverage innings out of. He's had people like Knebel, Hader and recently Williams so a dummy could manage that according to them.

[sveumrules]

Division Wins Since 2018...

ALE: 2290

NLW: 2218
ALW: 2194
NLE: 2168
NLC: 2160

ALC: 2017

The NL Central has been much closer competitively with the NLE (8 game difference), ALW (34 games) and even the NLW (58 games) during Counsell's tenure than it has with the AL Central (143 game difference).

[Fear The Chorizo]

4 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Division Wins Since 2018...

ALE: 2290

NLW: 2218
ALW: 2194
NLE: 2168
NLC: 2160

ALC: 2017

The NL Central has been much closer competitively with the NLE (8 game difference), ALW (34 games) and even the NLW (58 games) during Counsell's tenure than it has with the AL Central (143 game difference).

Checks notes, yep that all shows the NL Central has the 2nd fewest division wins in this timeframe, or I guess from your perspective the 5th most.

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Checks notes, yep that all shows the NL Central has the 2nd fewest division wins in this timeframe, or I guess from your perspective the 5th most.

The gap in wins between the divisions is much more telling than the ordinal ranking.

Especially when 5th place is 8 wins away from 4th, 34 wins away from 3rd and 58 games away from 2nd compared to 143 games away from 6th.

If MLB front offices believed Counsell's credentials were propped up by the NLC to the extent you are implying they wouldn't be pursuing him (and maybe even offering something approaching industry leading compensation) in the first place.

[MrTPlush]

31 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Lol. So in other words I completely refuted your point but because the most damning point was bolded and capitalized you didn't read it and everything is entirely dismissed. As always is the case with you, when you're proven wrong, there's some other reason to dismiss the other person's point. Exactly as expected.

I have no idea, I literally didn’t read it because you couldn’t manage to be a decent forum participant.