Burnes Trade Megathread

[Brewcrew82]

Why not have a dedicated thread for all of the rumors and proposals that are going to inevitably ensue over the next several months?

Despite Arnold's comments yesterday, I feel pretty confident a trade is forthcoming. I was on the fence about it at the end of the season, but Burnes' choke job in the playoffs and the presence of pitching desperate and prospect rich teams such as the Orioles and Dodgers has put me firmly on the trade side. 

The several teams that I think could be interested: LAD, BAL, TEX, SF, SD, PHI, NYY, BOS. 

[Brewcrew82]

Some potential deals. If we want pitching, we should probably look the Dodgers' way. If we want a power infusion, we should definitely talk to the O's. Padres offer the best combination of both imo. 

[LouisEly]

What Arnold needs to do - and I don't know how he does this without it getting leaked to the press and subsequently souring the deal and his reputation - is to allow Burnes' agent to negotiate a contract extension after they come to terms on a deal.  Or negotiate two deals - one that is contingent on an agreement of a contract extension and one that is not.  But if (read: when) that gets leaked to the press, that puts egg on Arnold's face because the deal hasn't been completed yet.

But in order to maximize the return for Burnes, there has to be an agreement for an extension in place to assure that team that Burnes will be around for several years.

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

What Arnold needs to do - and I don't know how he does this without it getting leaked to the press and subsequently souring the deal and his reputation - is to allow Burnes' agent to negotiate a contract extension after they come to terms on a deal.  Or negotiate two deals - one that is contingent on an agreement of a contract extension and one that is not.  But if (read: when) that gets leaked to the press, that puts egg on Arnold's face because the deal hasn't been completed yet.

But in order to maximize the return for Burnes, there has to be an agreement for an extension in place to assure that team that Burnes will be around for several years.

Would be a great idea if Burnes' agent wasn't Boras. 

[brewmann04]

Matt no way is keeping Burnes and I sure Balt is calling 

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, brewmann04 said:

Matt no way is keeping Burnes and I sure Balt is calling 

I thought the same until he said he “expects him to be here next year.” Again, I think he is gone but I cannot go the 100% route. Maybe 80%.

[Jose Cardenal]

With a Burnes trade I would like "another bite of the apple" as it pertains to bringing back pitching.  i.e. I want at least two pitchers coming back.  I would jump at a Padres trade that gave us Snelling, Adam Mazur and Graham Pauley (not big on Martorella) with which would be a similar return to the original Padres proposal above. 

 

[nate82]

I think this would be what a Burnes trade to the Padres looks like, I previously posted this in the 2023-2024 Offseason Ideas thread.

Padres get Burnes

Brewers get Snelling (LHP), Zavala (OF) and Lizarraga (RHP)

Other possible trades:

Burnes to the Mets

Mauricio (2B) and Clifford (OF) to the Brewers

Braves get Burnes

Brewers get Waldrep (RHP) and Ignacio Alvarez (3B)

 

A completely insane never gonna happen deal!!!!

Yankees get Yelich and Burnes

Brewers get Stanton (DH), Jones (OF), Arias (SS), Thorpe (RHP) and $20mm. 

This would solve the DH problem for the Brewers and would save about $15mm going off the base salary for both players for the Brewers.  I am not sure the Yankees or the Brewers would do this but weirder things have happened. 

[Brewcrew82]

Braves are going to be another potential suitor this offseason, with Kyle Wright undergoing the same exact surgery as Woodruff. Bats went ice cold, yes, but their pitching did them no favors. Fried has had some trouble staying healthy recently, as well.

[LouisEly]

I like this a little better

 

[LouisEly]

Or this:

 

[jay87shot]

In any deal I'd prefer for quality over quantity. Instead of 1 solid prospect and 2 or 3 lower prospects we should maybe just look for 2 higher end players.

To LA for Gavin Stone and Miguel Vargas 

NYY for Clark Schmidt and Chase Hampton (maybe a small 3rd piece)

Burnes and Peguro for Coby Mayo, Conner Norby, and P Alex Pham

Burnes and Braves for Vaughn Grissom and Waldrep

Dbacks for Yu-Min Lu, Ivan Melendez, and AJ Vukovich (ok this is quantity over quality)

Boston for Ceddanne Rafaela and Blaze Jordan

Detriot for Jace Jung and Ty Madden (Detriot was sneaky not terrible and should have lots of money to spend, Burnes would be a sneaky great move for them if they could sign long term)

Twins for Bailey Ober and Jose Miranda (maybe 3 piece)

Mets for Ronny Mauricio, Blade Tidwell, Christian Scott (quantity again but the Mets don't have a high end pitcher)

Giants for Carson Whisenhunt, Mason Black, and Aeverson Artega

Cards for Goldschmidt, Tekoah Roby (still love Goldy trade idea)

Rays for Curtis Mead, Jonathan Aranda, and Manny Margot (trade Margot elsewhere in 3 team deal)

Burnes and Peguero to Rangers for Ezekiel Duran and Owen White (maybe 3rd piece)

Jay's for Alex Manoeh,  Addison Barger, and Spencer Horwitz

 

To say there are lots of options is an understatement. I didn't run any through the trade machine but all should be halfway reasonable.

 

 

[Brewcrew82]

27 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

In any deal I'd prefer for quality over quantity. Instead of 1 solid prospect and 2 or 3 lower prospects we should maybe just look for 2 higher end players.

To LA for Gavin Stone and Miguel Vargas 

NYY for Clark Schmidt and Chase Hampton (maybe a small 3rd piece)

Burnes and Peguro for Coby Mayo, Conner Norby, and P Alex Pham

Burnes and Braves for Vaughn Grissom and Waldrep

Dbacks for Yu-Min Lu, Ivan Melendez, and AJ Vukovich (ok this is quantity over quality)

Boston for Ceddanne Rafaela and Blaze Jordan

Detriot for Jace Jung and Ty Madden (Detriot was sneaky not terrible and should have lots of money to spend, Burnes would be a sneaky great move for them if they could sign long term)

Twins for Bailey Ober and Jose Miranda (maybe 3 piece)

Mets for Ronny Mauricio, Blade Tidwell, Christian Scott (quantity again but the Mets don't have a high end pitcher)

Giants for Carson Whisenhunt, Mason Black, and Aeverson Artega

Cards for Goldschmidt, Tekoah Roby (still love Goldy trade idea)

Rays for Curtis Mead, Jonathan Aranda, and Manny Margot (trade Margot elsewhere in 3 team deal)

Burnes and Peguero to Rangers for Ezekiel Duran and Owen White (maybe 3rd piece)

Jay's for Alex Manoeh,  Addison Barger, and Spencer Horwitz

 

To say there are lots of options is an understatement. I didn't run any through the trade machine but all should be halfway reasonable.

 

 

If we're going to give Burnes to the Cards for Goldschmidt, then we shouldn't trade Burnes at all. 

[LouisEly]

4 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If we're going to give Burnes to the Cards for Goldschmidt, then we shouldn't trade Burnes at all. 

Exactly.  If Burnes isn't on the team and Woodruff is going to miss most if not all of the season then there is no reason to have 36-year-old Goldschmidt on the team.

[Redd Vencher]

The trade structure for me to trade Burnes is going to have to be a top 50 prospect or player equivalent, another top 100 prospect or player equivalent, and another piece or 2 further away depending on the front of the package. This framework is based on previous trades for SP with similar control to Burnes.

[bensheeps]

12 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

The trade structure for me to trade Burnes is going to have to be a top 50 prospect or player equivalent, another top 100 prospect or player equivalent, and another piece or 2 further away depending on the front of the package. This framework is based on previous trades for SP with similar control to Burnes.

Does something like this question and answer from the weekend MLBTraderumors chat make sense?

Burnes for 3b Coby Mayo (#27), LHP Cade Povich (#11 on Baltimore's top 30), + a flyer.

BrewCrew

8:41

What’s a realistic trade offer built around Corbin Burnes for Coby Mayo? One-for-one? One of the teams have to add something?

 

Mark P

8:41

Mayo and a couple of lesser prospects might do it.

 

8:42

"Lesser," maybe a top 10-15 guy, and then a lottery ticket type in the lower minors.

Keep in mind that a player who's ranked 10-15 in Baltimore's system would be higher in almost any other system, since the Orioles are so crazy deep in prospects

[Redd Vencher]

24 minutes ago, bensheeps said:

Does something like this question and answer from the weekend MLBTraderumors chat make sense?

Burnes for 3b Coby Mayo (#27), LHP Cade Povich (#11 on Baltimore's top 30), + a flyer.

BrewCrew

8:41

What’s a realistic trade offer built around Corbin Burnes for Coby Mayo? One-for-one? One of the teams have to add something?

 

Mark P

8:41

Mayo and a couple of lesser prospects might do it.

 

8:42

"Lesser," maybe a top 10-15 guy, and then a lottery ticket type in the lower minors.

Keep in mind that a player who's ranked 10-15 in Baltimore's system would be higher in almost any other system, since the Orioles are so crazy deep in prospects

I'd want someone better than Povich or much better than just a single flyer at the back end. Mayo, Norby, and then one of Baumeister/De Leon/Nunez would be what I look for.

[Brewcrew82]

Robert Murray, who's pretty plugged in when it comes to the Brewers, says it "could be unlikely" Burnes is traded in light of Woody's season-ending injury. 

https://fansided.com/posts/mlb-rumors-grading-baltimore-orioles-offseason-wish-list

[wiguy94]

5 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Robert Murray, who's pretty plugged in when it comes to the Brewers, says it "could be unlikely" Burnes is traded in light of Woody's season-ending injury. 

https://fansided.com/posts/mlb-rumors-grading-baltimore-orioles-offseason-wish-list

“Could be unlikely” reads entirely like speculation.

[CheezWizHed]

You almost have to trade him or extend him.  Anything in between seems like a humongous waste of resources. 

[wibadgers23]

34 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

You almost have to trade him or extend him.  Anything in between seems like a humongous waste of resources. 

Yeah I'd much rather get a proven prospect or two who is close to contributing right away as opposed to a draft pick.  Not trading Burnes this offseason would be extremely risky.

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

You almost have to trade him or extend him.  Anything in between seems like a humongous waste of resources. 

Another crack at the crapshoot that is the MLB playoffs and a draft pick in the 30s isn't a waste of resources. Worst case, you trade him at the deadline if you're out of contention.

Of course, if the Orioles are willing to give up Mayo/Basallo or the Dodgers are willing to give up one or two of their young pitchers, I'm all ears. But I'm not trading him just for the sake of trading him. 

 

[CheezWizHed]

12 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Another crack at the crapshoot that is the MLB playoffs and a draft pick in the 30s isn't a waste of resources. Worst case, you trade him at the deadline if you're out of contention.

Of course, if the Orioles are willing to give up Mayo/Basallo or the Dodgers are willing to give up one or two of their young pitchers, I'm all ears. But I'm not trading him just for the sake of trading him. 

 

Did last year's team look like we were ready to compete for the WS? I don't see a path where this year's team improves the SP and offense to be better than last year's. 

No one is advocating dumping Burnes for peanuts... he should bring back the equivalent of a couple high draft picks (with a track record and closer to the majors) plus a few lottery cards.  Better than getting a single comp pick, IMO.

Our new "core" just came up last year and/or is in AAA/AA.  That is the team we should be building on.  Yes, we step back this year, but improve our chances for future years. 

[brewerfan82]

9 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

 wRC+Did last year's team look like we were ready to compete for the WS? I don't see a path where this year's team improves the SP and offense to be better than last year's. 

Yes. You don't have to have the best team to win the World Series and they don't even necessarily need to be better than this year to go further in the playoffs next year. The Arizona Diamondbacks just made their way into the Series with the 18th best offense (97 wRC+ vs. the Brewers' 92), 19th best pitching (4.36 xFIP vs. the Brewers' 4.13) , and 5th best defense (4.5 UZR/150 vs. the Brewers' 7.7).

[alwz4gbp]

I have no problem whatsoever with taking a step back.  Unless you're trying to talk yourself into it, the Crew has no "realistic" shot at a WS with the current team.  Woody's loss it just too much to overcome and they didn't do anything when they did have him.  Sign Woody to a friendly 2 yr, prove it deal, trade Burnes and Adames and prepare for 2025.  Insist on major league ready talent in return.  

Tell Turang and Weimer to get to AZ to work on their respective hitting issues or they'll be in AAA again next year.  I understand that Weimer was brought up out of necessity but how did he advance that far with THAT swing?  I'm rooting for Turang if for no other reason than his defense but you simply can't hide a sub .600ops, nor should you have to at this level.  If they can get Weimer straightened out, you trade one of the OFers at the deadline next year.