Brewers trade with Phillies. Acquire Oliver Dunn

[HarryDoyle]

World Series, here we come!!!

[Brewcrew82]

19 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Sure...seems like we've got a log jam of SS/2B prospects in A and HiA and Pratt, Bitonti just add to that. Guilarte, Areinamo, O'Rae, Brown Jr(AA probably), and then Ereu, Baez and Di Turi. I get there's some 3B in there and again, Brown is likely ticketed for AA along with Adams.

Just looking at Dunn's numbers don't inspire a ton of confidence. Guys who break out at 25...meh, but the Brewers have earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to player evaluation.

Not sure this is the strongest argument😅

But it's good enough for this particular trade. 

(Just kills me to think about all that money we're wasting in LA when we could be adding a MRP in Free Agency!)

I mean the strongest argument against Mendez is his swing is atrocious. But it's also reality that the chances of hitting on two IFAs from the same class are next to nil. 

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

World Series, here we come!!!

On November 8th 2022, the Diamondbacks claimed Cole Sulser off waivers from the Marlins.

I'd imagine some DBacks fan somewhere inevitably proclaimed them World Series bound after the transaction was made.

That DBacks fan was right.

[BrewerFan]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I mean the strongest argument against Mendez is his swing is atrocious. But it's also reality that the chances of hitting on two IFAs from the same class are next to nil. 

Yes, I get it was more an...ancillary observation and not actually a rationale for trading him. 

It does make me wonder what the best IFA class ever has been. 

Doing the minimal work, I found an interesting article.

https://rogermunter.substack.com/p/whos-had-the-greatest-international

[markedman5]

57 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Since the Phillies just traded him, that tells me they are not buying into it...

And the reverse argument must also be true……if the Brewers believed in Moore and/or Mendez they wouldn’t have made this trade either……that’s what makes a market

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs article on the trade.

Encouraging: Dunn has a lot of late bloomer indicators that make the age relative to level maybe a lil less concerning: 2019 draftee from Utah, missed year in 2020, dealt with injuries in 21/22.

Discouraging: sounds like he is a pretty marginal 2B only type of defender.

[LouisEly]

Anyone getting a LHH Keith Ginter vibe here? 

[homer]

2 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Anyone getting a LHH Keith Ginter vibe here? 

wow. blast from the past. 
 

Wanna feel old? Keith Ginter is 47.

[igor67]

I don't think I ever realized Ginter was actually older then me... Oh the early Brewerfan years.

[Underachiever]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

On November 8th 2022, the Diamondbacks claimed Cole Sulser off waivers from the Marlins.

I'd imagine some DBacks fan somewhere inevitably proclaimed them World Series bound after the transaction was made.

That DBacks fan was right.

More like Oliver “playoff hopes are” Dunn, right?

[Underachiever]

59 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

FanGraphs article on the trade.

Encouraging: Dunn has a lot of late bloomer indicators that make the age relative to level maybe a lil less concerning: 2019 draftee from Utah, missed year in 2020, dealt with injuries in 21/22.

Discouraging: sounds like he is a pretty marginal 2B only type of defender.

Funny how being injured for two years ends up on the “encouraging “ side of the ledger.

[CheezWizHed]

Wait... we traded for who??

 

Oh OlivER Dunn.... Nevermind.

[jay87shot]

If you told me we would package Moore and Mendez I would have hoped for more than a guy who ranks 23rd on our prospect list. I do like the stats last year and in the AFL. I don't worry much about the age but I wonder if the 20+ HR power is for real. He was like a 3-7 HR guy through college and until last year. If he takes walks, has decent speed, plays a decent 2B, and has decent power this could be a nice find. If the power isn't real he isn't much better than Miller or Montesario. 

Moore and Mendez aren't huge loses but I probably ranked each from 25-35. For a guy I would put borderline top 20 that will be 26 next year and no AAA experience is meh.

[CheezWizHed]

4 hours ago, TURBO said:

Since the Phillies just traded him, that tells me they are not buying into it...

Fangraph's summary makes perfect sense here:

 

Not only was Bryson Stott blocking Dunn, but Rodolfo Castro and Kody Clemens each have a similar profile but with louder tools. Both Mendez and Moore have 2025 40-man roster timelines, so the team has two full years to develop them further before either can be considered on deck to contribute in Philly. Dunn’s power gives him a bigger ceiling than I’d forecast for either Mendez or Moore, despite those two each being at least five years younger than Dunn, but if Dunn isn’t going to be an everyday second baseman, he has to become a viable defender at at least one more position to play any kind of meaningful role for Milwaukee.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brewers-add-to-2024-infield-mix-with-oliver-dunn-trade/

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I actually expected the Brewers to make multiple trades or waiver claims. This is underwhelming and the cost was a little more than I expected for a guy who needed a 40 man roster spot (though Mendez and Moore are both trending the wrong way). The fangraphs article stated Reading is a hitters park, which is what I was able to find as well. I think Dunn truly did find a power stroke but whether that translates into double digit HR numbers in the majors is questionable. He probably makes Toro expendable. Cant see Toro getting $1M+ considering he is out of options.

In the end, its probably not that big of a deal and getting the guy closer to the majors is the way to go.

Its possible the brewers could still swing a trade. A number of players were DFA'd today. Those teams could still trade them to the Brewers who have plenty of open spots available (even more so with non-tender decisions to happen yet)

[sveumrules]

4 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Funny how being injured for two years ends up on the “encouraging “ side of the ledger.

Encouraging in that it provides additional context with regards to him being old for his level last year.

Sure, he was 25 in AA, but he also only got 277 combined PAs at A/A+ spread out over 2019-21 before making the jump.

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

He was like a 3-7 HR guy through college and until last year.

Looking at raw HR totals is misleading because of his correspondingly low PA totals.

Power actually showed up in 2022.

Posted a .182 ISO at A+ and a .162 ISO at AA in 2021.

That jumped to a .242 ISO at AA in 2022 with 77 PA of 333/439/576 (173 wRC+).

Showed it was no small sample fluke with 505 PA of .235 ISO in 2023 on an overall line of 271/396/506 (148 wRC+).

[markedman5]

 

[yfinn6]

2 hours ago, homer said:

wow. blast from the past. 
 

Wanna feel old? Keith Ginter is 47.

Holy crap. 

And I'm just reminded that Ginter brought Nelson Cruz to Milwaukee. 

 

 

[brewmann04]

26 year old in Double A is a mediocre at this point 

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 minute ago, brewmann04 said:

26 year old in Double A is a mediocre at this point 

These are the type of trades that happen at this stage in the offseason leading up to when 40 man rosters have to include minor leaguers teams want to protect from the rule v draft.  Guys who different organizations can't protect anymore due to depth at that position or lack of 40 man roster spots get sent packing between organizations who have a spot for them and in exchange the acquiring team sends blocked minor leaguers of their own back to teams who don't yet need to be added to a 40 man.

[sveumrules]

8 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

26 year old in Double A is a mediocre at this point 

He was 25 in AA this past season.

He’ll be spending his age 26 season in AAA and maybe even MLB at some point depending how things go.

Moore and Mendez have time on their side, but at this point they’re dreaming of achieving the kind of mediocrity that Dunn has put up to find himself on a 40 Man roster.

Many were up in arms when the Brewers gave total unknown Blake Perkins (who spent most of his age 25 season at AA) a 40 Man spot around this time last year. He ended up chipping in 1.2 WAR as the 5th OF. 

[Austin Tatious]

I’m not going to pretend that I’d ever focused on Dunn before today but I love the move from a risk/reward standpoint.  No guarantees here but I love that our analysts liked enough to focus on him.  This is the type of move that we can make and get excess value from.   Moore and Mendez may make it but I always thought they were overrated and I like Dunn’s potential more.   I have always been quality over quantity and I really like the move.  

[Pugger]

5 hours ago, homer said:

wow. blast from the past. 
 

Wanna feel old? Keith Ginter is 47.

47?  He's just a kid.  😉

[BrewCrew8675309]

21 hours ago, sveumrules said:

FanGraphs article on the trade.

Encouraging: Dunn has a lot of late bloomer indicators that make the age relative to level maybe a lil less concerning: 2019 draftee from Utah, missed year in 2020, dealt with injuries in 21/22.

Discouraging: sounds like he is a pretty marginal 2B only type of defender.

Might be older due to Mormon mission not necessarily repeating Low A or the like...