MLB 2023/2024 Free Agency Thread

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, tmwiese55 said:

I know this is generally dumb because results are results, and you can't just take out the worst games of everyone.   But if you take out that what 5ish week stretch from Hader in 2022 before and right after the trade he probably moves drastically up those lists.  That was a complete blip on the radar for some unknown reason, I'd assume pitch tipping or something, then he got it fixed and went right back to complete domination. I'm just saying that monthish stretch was fluky.  And it was so drastically bad due to whatever was going on that it hurt his number moreso than when guys just have 2-3 bad games here or there. It wasn't just bad luck of a 2 or 3 run homer at a bad time in games close together like is normal so it inflated numbers more.

Good for him.  And as much as its too much for a closer in general, I would oddly also view it some of the safest money spent this offseason. Basically barring injury you have extreme confidence he's going to be very good for the next few years, you're just paying him a bit too much. And 5 years doesn't have that massive backend drag like most of these 7//8+ year deals for hitters or starting pitchers.   And think of the contracts guys like Jansen, Kimbrell, types have gotten the last few years in spite of being shaky for years now.  He's a better deal than them. 

Bit surprising Houston did this as a team that has let so many of their guys go rather than pay. 

Yeah, that Hader is still Top 3 in rWAR, WPA, K%+ and AVG+ since 2020 despite that atypical stretch in 2022 speaks to how dominant he’s been on either side of those struggles.

Think I’d put Devin, Josh, Emmanuel Clase and Edwin Diaz (assuming a return to form) in a tier of their own at the very top among relievers.

Jordan Romano of the Blue Jays doesn’t have the elite peripherals of the other four with a “only” a 74 FIP- (15th) and 4.4 fWAR (13th) since 2020, but his 55 ERA- (4th), 7.1 rWAR (2nd) and +11.25 WPA (2nd) put him right up there in terms of run prevention and context dependent performance.

[Lathund]

I'll die on the hill that spending this kind of money on players who pitch ~4% (60 innings) of a teams total innings, and thus affects 2% of their total innings, will always be a bad use of money. Yes, you can pick and choose when those innings happen, and they'll rarely be "wasted". But that doesn't change that the # of runs saved/scored is minimal. If you have a $300m payroll and you have a WS caliber team already, then yeah sure go ahead, maximize your chances of winning playoff series. It's bad value in the sense that you pay a lot for any extra win, but on the flipside that extra win carries bigger rewards than normal. But in the vast majority of cases, spending that $20m on the best position player or starter available gets you more of a return. 

Anyway, with that out of the way, *if* you are going to spend that kind of money on a reliever, Hader is about as good a candidate for that as you can find. Crazy dominant over his career. And, correct me if I'm wrong, but he has never been on the (non-COVID) IL as a major leaguer, right? I can't remember any injuries anyway. Any pitcher can get injuried at any time, but that kind of injury history at least reduces the risk. 

It's also interesting to see what direction the Astros will go. Under Luhnow and Click they were one of then most analytically run teams out there. But with the firing of Click and the noises coming out from ownership it seemed they were unhappy with that direction, and while it's only a few signings, the deals for Abreu and particularly for Montero and now Hader seems much more like the kind of thing the Padres or Angels or Rockies would do, than the Astros/Rays/Brewers/Guardians mould. 

[markedman5]

 

[Brewcrew82]

21 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

 

Well, Nutting did say they're ready to compete. Must be his version of an "all-in" move. 

[jay87shot]

It's bad when your jealous of the Pirates spending prowess.

There bullpen is really good now and there rotation is passable (no top of rotation guys). There lineup could be solid if Reynolds, Cruz. Henry Davis (among others) meet expectations.

 

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

It's bad when your jealous of the Pirates spending prowess.

There bullpen is really good now and there rotation is passable (no top of rotation guys). There lineup could be solid if Reynolds, Cruz. Henry Davis (among others) meet expectations.

 

You want the Brewers to spend less?

[jay87shot]

9 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

You want the Brewers to spend less?

Was just looking at the Chapman move. I know they only spend 70-80 million a year. 

They have added Martin Perez, Marco Gonzalez, Chapman, and Rowdy. Nothing special but for the Pirates that is a lot. 

[GreatNWwi]

5 hours ago, jay87shot said:

Was just looking at the Chapman move. I know they only spend 70-80 million a year. 

They have added Martin Perez, Marco Gonzalez, Chapman, and Rowdy. Nothing special but for the Pirates that is a lot. 

You are jealous that they signed three pitchers that we have the equivalent to and dove in the Brewers dumpster?  Hmmm.

[Ro Mueller]

$5-6m seems cheap to me for a 2-time gold glover (in RF), left-handed hitter with pop. Hopefully this bodes well for us to get an even better first baseman.

Nationals, Joey Gallo Agree To One-Year Deal

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

16 minutes ago, damuelle said:

$5-6m seems cheap to me for a 2-time gold glover (in RF), left-handed hitter with pop. Hopefully this bodes well for us to get an even better first baseman.

Nationals, Joey Gallo Agree To One-Year Deal

 

Pop yes ... but those batting average numbers are a dumpster fire.

[CheeseheadInQC]

As far as I can tell, Gallo has the second highest career strikeout rate among non-pitchers with at least 1,000 plate appearances. Anyone care to guess who is No. 1?

[AKCheesehead]

Adam Dunn?

[brewerfan82]

22 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

As far as I can tell, Gallo has the second highest career strikeout rate among non-pitchers with at least 1,000 plate appearances. Anyone care to guess who is No. 1?

Because you're asking this board... Keston Hiura? 😬

[CheeseheadInQC]

26 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

Because you're asking this board... Keston Hiura? 😬

Wrong Ex-Brewer. Hiura was 5th.

[markedman5]

Apparently Brewers were interested In Chapman 

 

[owbc]

1 minute ago, markedman5 said:

Apparently Brewers were interested In Chapman 

 

That would have been an interesting signing. The dude's arm is close to falling off, but not quite there yet. 

[AKCheesehead]

20 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Wrong Ex-Brewer. Hiura was 5th.

If it’s an ex-Brewer then maybe Chris Carter. Or maybe Jose Hernandez

 

ETA Russell The Muscle 

[owbc]

3 minutes ago, AKCheesehead said:

If it’s an ex-Brewer then maybe Chris Carter. Or maybe Jose Hernandez

Carter is more impressive because not only does he have a higher K rate than Hiura, but he maintained it over more than 2.5x as many PAs before getting booted out of MLB. 

Jose Hernandez is over 10% lower than Carter LOL. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

3 minutes ago, owbc said:

Carter is more impressive because not only does he have a higher K rate than Hiura, but he maintained it over more than 2.5x as many PAs before getting booted out of MLB. 

Jose Hernandez is over 10% lower than Carter LOL. 

I’ve got Carter lower than Hiura, but I am using K% not K/9. Not Branyan either, but he was up there. This player played for five teams, but his only full seasons with one team came in Milwaukee. He was also known as a plus defender.

[brewcrewdue80]

41 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I’ve got Carter lower than Hiura, but I am using K% not K/9. Not Branyan either, but he was up there. This player played for five teams, but his only full seasons with one team came in Milwaukee. He was also known as a plus defender.

Keon Broxton?  

[CheeseheadInQC]

12 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Keon Broxton?  

Bingo

[TURBO]

5 hours ago, damuelle said:

$5-6m seems cheap to me for a 2-time gold glover (in RF), left-handed hitter with pop. Hopefully this bodes well for us to get an even better first baseman.

Nationals, Joey Gallo Agree To One-Year Deal

 

Awesome, this takes away any outside chance, any chance at all, that we would consider this guy!  YES!

[markedman5]

 

[Matt Breen]

2 hours ago, markedman5 said:

 

I would have loved Turner for the Brewers. Play some 1B/3B/DH. And the beard would have been fun. But after signings Hoskins, probably not so much. Dude still can hit, but he's 39 - the wheels have to fall off at some point - correct? 

[Matt Breen]

2 hours ago, markedman5 said:

 

Turner is fascinating in that he didn't become an everyday major leaguer until he was 31 years old. Yet he's managed to take home $135m (including the upcoming season). Not bad for a guy who was waived at age 25 (by Baltimore), and allowed to be a free agent by the Mets (rather than offer arbitration) at age 29. Even with the Dodgers it took him until he was there for three years to get 500+ ABs.