MLB 2023/2024 Free Agency Thread

[wallus]

4 hours ago, brewerfan82 said:

Rosario (w/ Rays) and Urshela (w/ Tigers) have each signed 1 yr, $1.5M contracts this week (link). If Solano can be had on a similar contract, I would really like how the roster is shaping out. The IF/DH spots would have some nice options to rotate through:

2021-23 vs. RHP:

2021-23 vs. LHP:

*Plus Ortiz and Black who obviously don't have MLB splits available

Not that we'd have all 10 of those guys on the roster at the same time, but it would create some nice competition in camp for the last couple spots and add depth and security for the year.

IKF's agent must be a genius. 

[sveumrules]

Team Remaining Free Agents (with FanGraphs Depth Charts Projected WAR)

C: Pina (0.5) Zunino (0.3)

IF: Belt (0.9) Solano (0.7) Andrus (0.6) Crawford (0.9) Mondesi (0.7) Chapman (3.4)

OF: Bellinger (2.8) Taylor (1.2) Duvall (0.9) Pham (0.9)

DH: JDM (0.6)

SP: Snell (3.3) Montgomery (3.2) Clevinger (1.5) German (1.4) Lorenzen (1.3) Greinke (1.0)

LR/MR: Syndegaard (0.7) Cueto (0.5) Lauer (0.5) Rucinski (0.4)

SU: Martin (0.2) Bass (0.2)

CL: Stanek (0.3)

Had to cheat a little in the bullpen with only three FA relievers projected for even 0.2 WAR, but if I added this all up right it comes out to 14.4 WAR on offense and 14.5 WAR of pitching.

That 28.9 projected WAR is better than four teams - COL (18.3), WAS (21.5), CWS (23.7), OAK (24.8) - and just behind a fifth, KCR (29.3).

Assuming say $100M for the Boras four, plus some one year $5M type deals for like a half dozen of the other guys and then $1M each for the rest comes out around $150M in payroll which looking at Cots would rank 15th in MLB, just ahead of the Rockies in a somewhat hilarious bit of kismet.

[Brewcrew82]

 

[SF70]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

 

Hoyer played this one right. 

Not much downside with only 3 years, all of them still in his peak-performance years. 

His versatility allows for the Cubs to bring up their young talent, even if he sticks for 3, which he’s not likely to do.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, SF70 said:

Hoyer played this one right. 

Not much downside with only 3 years, all of them still in his peak-performance years. 

His versatility allows for the Cubs to bring up their young talent, even if he sticks for 3, which he’s not likely to do.

 

Bellinger and Chapman are prime examples where being willing to sign an extension a few years before reaching free agency would have been better longterm options for their career earnings after mvp-level seasons.  When it comes to players who aren't quite the marquee talent in their free agent classes, Boras' approach actually hurts them, IMO.

 

This deal could have been signed the day free agency started last November.  The 3 month plus delay got Bellinger absolutely nothing.

 

As for Bellinger going back to the Cubs, to me it gets them back to where they were last season, which is decent.  Maybe this breaks the stalemate and they turn around and add either Snell or Montgomery to their rotation, which would be a significant improvement to a team that managed to finish over 0.500 last season.

[TURBO]

Crap.

Wanted him to go someplace else other than St. Louis or the Cubs.. 

 

[wiguy94]

57 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Bellinger and Chapman are prime examples where being willing to sign an extension a few years before reaching free agency would have been better longterm options for their career earnings after mvp-level seasons.  When it comes to players who aren't quite the marquee talent in their free agent classes, Boras' approach actually hurts them, IMO.

 

This deal could have been signed the day free agency started last November.  The 3 month plus delay got Bellinger absolutely nothing.

 

As for Bellinger going back to the Cubs, to me it gets them back to where they were last season, which is decent.  Maybe this breaks the stalemate and they turn around and add either Snell or Montgomery to their rotation, which would be a significant improvement to a team that managed to finish over 0.500 last season.

Yeah Boras might have actually hurt Bellinger here. He way overperformed his peripherals last year in a way that doesn’t look super sustainable. If he regresses then he’s really going to regret not signing a long term deal.  
 

I agree the Cubs didn’t improve much this offseason. Bellinger returned and Imanaga replaced Stroman. That leaves their 2 best additions at Michael Busch and Hector Neris. Not exactly big time upgrades. I think I’d put them and St. Louis ahead of us going into the year though. 

[Jopal78]

18 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah Boras might have actually hurt Bellinger here. He way overperformed his peripherals last year in a way that doesn’t look super sustainable. If he regresses then he’s really going to regret not signing a long term deal.  
 

I agree the Cubs didn’t improve much this offseason. Bellinger returned and Imanaga replaced Stroman. That leaves their 2 best additions at Michael Busch and Hector Neris. Not exactly big time upgrades. I think I’d put them and St. Louis ahead of us going into the year though. 

Bellinger hit 111 homeruns, was a two time all star, won a gold glove and was an MVP before he turned 24. What incentive was there for him to take a long term deal, he looked like a Hall of Fame player his first three years?

I doubt many players, “play it safe” and take an extension because they’re afraid of getting hurt, or don’t believe they can keep it up. Bellinger was clearly betting on himself and he rolled snake eyes. I’m not so sure what Boras has to do with that. With his injury history and unflattering metrics in 2023 the journalists who predicted a 200 million dollar contract got it wrong, to the Cubs’ delight. 

[Underachiever]

20 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah Boras might have actually hurt Bellinger here. He way overperformed his peripherals last year in a way that doesn’t look super sustainable. If he regresses then he’s really going to regret not signing a long term deal.  
 

What offer did Bellinger not take that makes you say this? What if this was the best offer he got? I feel like there has been a dearth of long-term contracts by teams (non-Dodger division). Five players got more than 4 years (Ohtani, Yamamoto, Hader, Nola, Jung-Hoo Lee). Eduardo Rodriguez got 4/80, Jordan Hicks got 4/44, but everyone else got three years or fewer. I think that there was an attempt by teams to keep years down. The opt-outs are another big change.

I just think that there is such a desire to demonize Boras that one, we minimize the players' desire for a big contract out of the equation, and two, we don't account for a possible soft collusion by the owners to keep salaries down.

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Bellinger hit 111 homeruns, was a two time all star, won a gold glove and was an MVP before he turned 24. What incentive was there for him to take a long term deal, he looked like a Hall of Fame player his first three years?

I doubt many players, “play it safe” and take an extension because they’re afraid of getting hurt, or don’t believe they can keep it up. Bellinger was clearly betting on himself and he rolled snake eyes. I’m not so sure what Boras has to do with that. With his injury history and unflattering metrics in 2023 the journalists who predicted a 200 million dollar contract got it wrong, to the Cubs’ delight. 

I wasn’t talking about an extension. I was talking about signing a longer contract in FA…

[Fear The Chorizo]

18 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Bellinger hit 111 homeruns, was a two time all star, won a gold glove and was an MVP before he turned 24. What incentive was there for him to take a long term deal, he looked like a Hall of Fame player his first three years?

I doubt many players, “play it safe” and take an extension because they’re afraid of getting hurt, or don’t believe they can keep it up. Bellinger was clearly betting on himself and he rolled snake eyes. I’m not so sure what Boras has to do with that. With his injury history and unflattering metrics in 2023 the journalists who predicted a 200 million dollar contract got it wrong, to the Cubs’ delight. 

His first three years of performance is plenty of incentive to try and work out a longterm extension with the huge market team that he came up with - Boras clients basically never do that, however, and that approach burned him.  And it's going to burn Chapman, too. If you don't think Boras advises to the point if insisting all of his premier clients to take things year to year and then cash in on free agency, you're kidding yourself.

[SRB]

Huge overpay. He was atrocious in 2021, a worse version of Tyrone Taylor in 2022, and one of the luckiest batters in the major leagues in 2023. All metrics point to him being an average to below average player, especially as his CF defense starts to decline.

 

Delighted the Cubs blundered into this one.

[Jopal78]

10 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I wasn’t talking about an extension. I was talking about signing a longer contract in FA…

Oh, so the world of speculation then. Like I said, journalists like to throw other people’s money around but it sure seems Bellinger‘s  injury history and metrics from ‘23 probably made a top free agent contract a pipe dream.

 Nonetheless , Boras got him an AAV of $30 million in ‘24 which places him in the top 25 or so of highest paid players by AAV, and if he plays well and stays healthy he can be a free agent again next winter. If he turns into a pumpkin in ‘24  he still gets another 30 million in ‘25. Good deal for Bellinger

 

[igor67]

I'd frame this less about Boras in particular and more just good examples of why those early extensions do represent dealing with real risks that all players face.

[LouisEly]

Between his last three years with the Dodgers and his one year with the Cubs, Bellinger had already pocketed $62M.  It's not like he missed his one big payday by rolling the dice for a longer deal.

[Fear The Chorizo]

28 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Between his last three years with the Dodgers and his one year with the Cubs, Bellinger had already pocketed $62M.  It's not like he missed his one big payday by rolling the dice for a longer deal.

If the Brewers exercise a couple club options, Chourio will make close to $150m on a contract he signed as a teenager before ever playing a game in mlb. And then he will be 29 headed to free agency.  

If Bellinger honors all 3 seasons of this $80m free agent contract, the 2nd free agent contract he has signed, his career earnings will be about that of Chourio and he will next be a free agent into his age 32 season.  Had Bellinger tried to iron out a longterm extension  with the Dodgers following his 2019 MVP season, he'd probably  have made at least twice the guaranteed money he's going to make by the time he hits 34/35 years old.

 

Don't get me wrong, Bellinger isn't poor - but he'd have been making alot more money than he will starting a couple seasons ago and through the next 5+ seasons had they tried a different approach.

[Underachiever]

And coming off of that 2019 season, Rendon got 7/245 in FA. I can understand why Bellinger waited. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, Underachiever said:

And coming off of that 2019 season, Rendon got 7/245 in FA. I can understand why Bellinger waited. 

Interesting that you brought up Rendon, another Boras client who cashed in a monster FA year with a huge contract - perfect time to have a monster year.  Since then he's been a pumpkin and is a perfect example of why teams shy away from feeling obligated to break the bank for every free agent who had a really good year.  Strasburg signed a monster deal right around then, too.  Kris Bryant a couple years ago, too.

 

Bellinger had a good year coming off 3 awful seasons, and Boras was trying to get him paid like Rendon without accepting the reality that many of his own clients have fallen on their faces after signing huge deals, and it's impacting how much teams are rightfully leery of lengthy longterm contracts for players with some warts and who havent proven to be consistently elite.

 

Had Boras and Bellinger approached the Dodgers about a longterm extension following the 2019 season, $350m+ would have been the parameters and he'd be right in the middle of that contract right now. I believe at the time the Dodgers were willing to listen but it wasn't even a thought from bellinger/boras.  There's now way to argue that betting on himself hasn't backfired.

[igor67]

From my perspective the somewhat different thing about Bellinger is that while he clearly lost out compared to signing an extension a few years go he has still earned a nice chunk of money. So it is a little different comparison to the Chourio's of the world who are so early in their careers that they have not earned a serious nest egg yet and could easily flame out before making more than a few million in total (which is still pretty good but not a ton of money unless you are very careful at a young age).

[wallus]

Cooper to the Cubs on a minor league deal, surprising to me. Still lots of guys available.

[jay87shot]

I don't think Bellinger lost out, he has opt outs and is 28. He could still have a good year and find a 10 year deal. If anything it shows that the Dodgers were smart to wait, although it is easier for big market teams to wait.

[Fear The Chorizo]

36 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I don't think Bellinger lost out, he has opt outs and is 28. He could still have a good year and find a 10 year deal. If anything it shows that the Dodgers were smart to wait, although it is easier for big market teams to wait.

There is zero chance he ever signs a ten year deal, and frankly it would be a huge mistake for Bellinger to opt out from $30M in 2025.  And it doesn't show the Dodgers were smart to wait, because they didn't have an opportunity to make that choice.  They've been more than willing to extend core guys on their roster before they reach free agency (Betts, Kershaw, etc), but have consistently let Boras clients leave (Bellinger, Seager, JD Martinez, etc) - in part because they know they are looking for more than what their perceived market value is to sign an extension before free agency.

[sveumrules]

11 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Had Boras and Bellinger approached the Dodgers about a longterm extension following the 2019 season, $350m+ would have been the parameters

$350M+ seems like a pretty rich assumption.

Trout extended for 10/360 in March 2019.

Harper got 13/330 as a free agent in March 2019.

Betts extended for 12/365 from the Dodgers in July 2020 after they traded for him with one year before FA.

Tatis Jr extended for 14/340 in February 2021, but he was also two years younger than Belli and a SS at the time.

Lindor extended for 10/341 from the Mets in March 2021 after they traded for him with one year before FA.

Judge needed to hit FA to get 9/360 and that was three years later in 2022.

If $350M+ four years out from FA were the parameters after only one MVP calibre season in 2019, I can see why the Dodgers never went for an extension.

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

There is zero chance he ever signs a ten year deal, and frankly it would be a huge mistake for Bellinger to opt out from $30M in 2025.  And it doesn't show the Dodgers were smart to wait, because they didn't have an opportunity to make that choice.  They've been more than willing to extend core guys on their roster before they reach free agency (Betts, Kershaw, etc), but have consistently let Boras clients leave (Bellinger, Seager, JD Martinez, etc) - in part because they know they are looking for more than what their perceived market value is to sign an extension before free agency.

Why would it be a huge mistake? Even if he pops off for a low .800 OPS, he would easily change that 2/$50mil left on his deal to $150mil+. The only reason he didn't get $200mil+ is because of the two terrible years prior to 2023. If he is anything above average, he is going to rip up that deal and get a huge contract. He would STILL be playing a year of a new contract in his 20s. If he opts out, he clearly played well enough to find a big time contract.

I agree he won't ever sign for 10 years...but he could easily net a 5-6 year contract...maybe even 7-8 if he repeated close to his '23 numbers. 

[jay87shot]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

There is zero chance he ever signs a ten year deal, and frankly it would be a huge mistake for Bellinger to opt out from $30M in 2025.  And it doesn't show the Dodgers were smart to wait, because they didn't have an opportunity to make that choice.  They've been more than willing to extend core guys on their roster before they reach free agency (Betts, Kershaw, etc), but have consistently let Boras clients leave (Bellinger, Seager, JD Martinez, etc) - in part because they know they are looking for more than what their perceived market value is to sign an extension before free agency.

Bellinger plays great defense, runs well, has the ablity to hit 30 HR a year and hit .307 last year. I get that metrics said he overperformed last year but this is a guy who won an MVP at 23. If he puts together a 5 WAR season, I don't think it would be crazy for a big market team to sign him to a 10-250+ deal, maybe 8 years makes more sense.

To contradict some of you Dodgers point, the Dodgers traded for Betts so it's not like the extended him early, JD was on a 1 year deal and they let him leave because they signed Shohei not because of Boras.