Taylor, Houser to NYM

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I am also hoping this means they are confident that Ashby’s velocity is back and he will be ready to go.

The Brewers did acquire a number of guys with higher ceilings than Houser, but there is a lot of risk there. If they were going to move Houser I kind of wish it was closer to the start of the season when they have at least slightly more info on health factors.

Arnold did say Ashby's velocity was pretty much back in his season ending presser.

Will be interesting to see what role they have planned for him. 

[DR28]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

Arnold did say Ashby's velocity was pretty much back in his season ending presser.

Will be interesting to see what role they have planned for him. 

He has interviewed at the end of WM and said Ashby will be in rotation.

Burnes, Peralta. Ashby. Rea. Miley, Ross.... Yea I like that!

[tmwiese55]

22 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Steamer projects Rea to be better than Houser, too....

Didn't someone just say it says Miley is worse than all these guys too?    Sure there is some value on these projections, especially on guys we've never seen.  But we've seen Houser for years and we all saw Rea.  I know which I'd bank on being better and Houser also seems the easier transferrable guy to the BP too.  Drastically different and impossible to be the other way? no of course not. But I know which I'd bet on and my point was to have them all because 5 starters isn't enough especially when 3 are just blah innings eater types and one is 40 years old.  And I'm a general a Rea supporter for what he is, low end cheap innings eater in emergency.  Looks like we're paying him 4.5 mil right and are cool with it, a smidge more for Houser seems fine then too.   

Low chance of course but worth mentioning, a pie in the sky thing on Houser too would be if he happen to have a good start of the year, which he has had a few really good 3-4 month stretches a few times over the years and you could more back at the deadline than what you got here. 

ETA: I know I've said a lot of words, but I know this isn't a huge deal or anything. Not angry etc.  I know these are marginal things and more moves are coming to judge it all later, we'll see.   But this is one I scratch my head at and chalk up to money saving primarily. 

[homer]

12 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Good joke homer!

OK don't be condescending? Act like an adult? take your pick. Just be nice.

[yourout]

9 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Arnold did say Ashby's velocity was pretty much back in his season ending presser.

Will be interesting to see what role they have planned for him. 

I'm pretty much wait and see with Ashby.

Right now i don't expect much.

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Didn't someone just say it says Miley is worse than all these guys too?    Sure there is some value on these projections, especially on guys we've never seen.  But we've seen Houser for years and we all saw Rea.  I know which I'd bank on being better and Houser also seems the easier transferrable guy to the BP too.  Drastically different and impossible to be the other way? no of course not. But I know which I'd bet on and my point was to have them all because 5 starters isn't enough especially when 3 are just blah innings eater types and one is 40 years old.  And I'm a general a Rea supporter for what he is, low end cheap innings eater in emergency.  Looks like we're paying him 4.5 mil right and are cool with it, a smidge more for Houser seems fine then too.   

Low chance of course but worth mentioning, a pie in the sky thing on Houser too would be if he happen to have a good start of the year, which he has had a few really good 3-4 month stretches a few times over the years and you could more back at the deadline than what you got here. 

Yeah. But even then Miley is still projected to be Houser....

We're making Houser into more than he is. There's arguably more untapped upside with Rea than Houser at this point, despite Rea being a few years older than Houser. They did just sign Ross as additional rotation depth. I'd imagine they'd get even more in a Burnes trade. And then you have Rodriguez, Misiorowski, etc. starting to knock on the door. 

We lose Houser in a year, and if we are retooling, I'd rather go with the younger, higher upside guy now. Could we have gotten more for Houser (and Taylor)? Maybe. But I'm not going to lose sleep over it when it doesn't even make us worse on paper in the immediate term, while providing us increased flexibility and upside in the future. 

[sveumrules]

6 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Didn't someone just say it says Miley is worse than all these guys too? 

That's because for most pitchers, FIP is stickier year over year than ERA. Miley is the biggest outlier in baseball though with regards to beating his FIP.

Since 2018, among 91 starting pitchers with at least 500 IP, his 3.45 ERA is 0.79 runs better than his 4.25 FIP. The next biggest gap in the sample is Kershaw at 2.77 ERA vs 3.36 FIP for a 0.59 run difference. 

If you narrow it down to Miley's 201 IP with the Brewers he is at a 2.91 ERA vs 4.25 FIP for an even more massive 1.34 run difference.  

 

[torts]

World series here we come!!!!!

[MrTPlush]

Doesn’t exactly scream “we are trying to compete”. So probably dumping some guys that just aren’t that valuable…surprised they are this worthless though. No point spending $3mil+ to just hope to get a similar return mid season (or nothing at all).

[markedman5]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2023/12/20/milwaukee-brewers-trade-adrian-houser-tyrone-taylor-to-mets-for-minor-league-pitcher-coleman-crow/71987146007/

[Playing Catch]

It's been a couple of hours, and this thread is already outstanding.

I was initially pretty disappointed, and of course, after some background on Crow, I feel better about the return... While not a contributor this season, he profiles as a pretty sure bet (presuming health -- a big presumption), as a big league starter, as he was demonstrating both high-floor, and high-ceiling stuff before the injury (which certainly needs to be considered). If he's already throwing 3 MLB-quality pitches for strikes, his floor is probably close to an Adrian Houser, or like league-average backend starter, and with some ceiling too, considering these "double-plus" scouting reports on his pitchers. A pretty similar scouting report as Gasser, albeit from the right side, and with TJ. We all know the value of "controllable" starting pitching, based on our collective belief in Peralta's value. This looks like the Brewers are taking a risk that Crow turns into a legit MLB starter... those don't come cheap unless you trade for them BEFORE they are legit MLB starters.

I find it hilarious that the posters that think the FO is terrible and simply looking out for "Montgomery Burns" Attansio's interests, also believe that rostering their beloved mid-rotation starter and 4th OFer represent is the path toward what? Free spenders? World Series contenders? Does their collective loss "move the needle" in the opposite direction? I ALSO think it's funny when those of us that defend the organization most of the time are unconcerned about the loss of consistent, league-average production with nothing to show for it on the big league team. In a vacuum, this move ABSOLUTELY makes the Brewers a lesser team in '24, and it certainly smacks of cutting salary corners. Good thing this move didn't happen in a vacuum.

IMHO, this has more to do with 40-man space than dollars. Or, rather, it has to do with dollars-per-40-man spot, future value versus present value, and looking for the best possible return for these guys. I think it signals that Taylor wasn't going to play, and that they had their heart set on trading Houser.

I'm worried about losing Houser. I thought TTaylor had more value. I'm nervous about prospects recovering from TJ (especially soft-tossers). I'm thrilled that Crow's scouting report has some exciting aspects.

 

[wiguy94]

Mets turned half a season of washed Eduardo Escobar into Landon Marceaux, 1 season of Adrian Houser, and 3 seasons of Tyrone Taylor. That's pretty outstanding work from them.

[Sixtolezcano]

No worries, we just signed Eric Haase as our backup catcher.

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Mets turned half a season of washed Eduardo Escobar into Landon Marceaux, 1 season of Adrian Houser, and 3 seasons of Tyrone Taylor. That's pretty outstanding work from them.

It's nice work on a strict value basis, but it's not really changing their organizational outlook much. Houser is gone after this year, Marceaux is a fringe top 30 organizational prospect, and Taylor is a 30 year old league average hitter. They might be more competitive this year, but is it enough in the NL East? They really should trade Pete Alonso. 

Angels are also just a really stupid organization. 

[brewers888]

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

We can sign Santana without making this trade.... This saved $ better be going to Hoskins.

There is a better chance of Jake Bauers being our first baseman than Rhys Hoskins. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, brewers888 said:

There is a better chance of Jake Bauers being our first baseman than Rhys Hoskins. 

Still at least we'll have signed Santana, when you told us Jake Bauers was going to be the starting first baseman. 

[Bulldogboy]

If Mark A is weighing in on fo matters as some have reported then we are heading for a brutal fall. Taylor was out of a job so understand dumping him but Houser has to be kept in some role imo. Things just do not add up as a team trying to compete. If Burnes and Adames are here for spring training it is an epic fail. Please just get someone who doesn't need surgery just to play.

[The Beat Goes On]

2 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

If Mark A is weighing in on fo matters as some have reported then we are heading for a brutal fall. Taylor was out of a job so understand dumping him but Houser has to be kept in some role imo. Things just do not add up as a team trying to compete. If Burnes and Adames are here for spring training it is an epic fail. Please just get someone who doesn't need surgery just to play.

Agreed. I know the official line is still “bites at the apple” but if they were heading into rebuild mode instead I’m not sure how you could tell the difference. 

[brewers888]

12 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Still at least we'll have signed Santana, when you told us Jake Bauers was going to be the starting first baseman. 

I don't want either Santana or Bauers playing everyday for this team but you can continue your Baghdad Bob routine defending everything this organization does.

[brewers888]

I just hope we get a far better return when we trade Burnes which is something that absolutely should happen.

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

I don't want either Santana or Bauers playing everyday for this team but you can continue your Baghdad Bob routine defending everything this organization does.

Baghdad bob? LOL. I've criticized this organization plenty. This particular trade, however, is a nothing-burger. 

You were so certain and made it known to us all that Bauers was going to be the starting first baseman. By most indications, he will not be. Likely, it will be Santana, who proved to be a boon (along with Canha) to this team last season.

[brewcrewdue80]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

He wouldn't be on the 26 man roster...he would be on the 60 day IL...

He wasn't selected in the rule 5 draft. This means he can rehab all year as just a minor league player and not be put on the 40man and optioned off the 26man to do so, before removing him to 60day IL off the 40man.

Try to keep up. 3options remaining >2 only. 0 days of service time > than any days spent service time in 2024.  

Rule 5 draft protection doesn't need to happen for him now until after this season placed on the 40man.  He has a full year to rehab and not need protection or any ML move doing so.  Drafting him in rule5 draft starts it all.

[Devinep]

In a vacuum this is a bad deal. And it only makes sense if the money is invested to sing some quality talent. I’m not holding my breath 

[LouisEly]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

FWIW, we had zero room available on the 40 man roster after the Haas signing. This creates two open spots. 

Ding ding ding!

My scientific, wild-arsed guess:

It's to free up 40-man spots for a Burnes or Adames (or both) trade.  You don't make this trade if you're trying for one last hurrah.

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Crow had TJ mid August. You're looking at around 12 months rehab and could easily be milked for longer. That will likely push the Rule 5 roster time requirement to 2025. Yes he will need to be on the 26 man for 90 days before being optioned in that scenario but he's going to added to be added to the 40-man next offseason either way. So in regards to 40-man flexibility the only difference between Rule 5 and the trade is him being on the 40-man this offseason. In season he will be on the 60 day-IL which will take him off the 40 man. Next offseason he would have been added either way. 

Let's walk through the timeline here and requirements:

Scenario 1 - Brewers select Crow in Rule 5 draft:

• Crow must be put on 60-day DL rehabbing for most of 2024 or be returned to Mets
  • Crow accumulates MLB service time while on 60-day DL in 2024, reducing how long the Brewers have control while he is (anticipated to be) healthy
  • Crow likely does not accumulate 90 days on the 26-man active roster in 2024 to satisfy Rule 5 draft ownership
• Crow is added to the 40-man roster after 2024 season ends
• Crow must spend 90 days on the 26-man MLB active roster in 2025 to satisfy Rule 5 draft ownership requirements
  • Brewers cannot option Crow to the minors until he has spent 90 days on the active roster in 2025
  • Crow has to make the jump from AA to the majors in 2025 and perform at the major league level to not be a liability to the major league team in 2025
  • Crow accumulates MLB service time during those 90 days whether he is ready for the majors or not

 

Scenario 2 - Brewers trade for Crow

• Crow is rehabbing most of 2024 but does not have to be put on the 60-day DL
  • Crow does not accumulate MLB service time rehabbing in minors since he does not have to be put on 40-man roster
• Crow is added to 40-man roster after 2024 season ends
• Brewers can option Crow to the minors anytime in 2025 without having to spend any time on the 26-man major league roster
  • Crow does not have to start the season on the major league team
  • Crow does not have to make the jump from AA to the majors
  • Crow does not have to be a potential liability to the major league team for a minimum of 90 days
  • Crow does not accumulate MLB service time if he is not ready for the majors

 

Did I miss anything?