White Sox (Nastrini) vs Brewers (Peralta): 6/2/24, 1:10pm

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 minute ago, edfunderburk said:

I enjoy your comments & posts as a general rule - you obviously have a ton of baseball knowledge 

I simply don’t see how the squeeze with no outs by Frelick was a good idea

Because it was Frelick, and it was a L vs L situation. If he 'kills' it it's most likely an easy run. It's one of those deals where IMO the idea was great, the execution poor. And Yelich needed to do a better job of reading & staying put. 

Like I said, a PH would've made a lot of sense there.

Thanx for the props. Look forward to reading your stuff too.

[Brian]

6 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

he was just being Pham.

His father was incarcerated and he would be for most of his life. 

[yourout]

Odd stat of the day... All 6 runs were 2 out RBIs

[wiguy94]

31 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

Murphy got away with it……but without knowing all the particulars I’m not sure I’m a fan of the way he managed the pen today.

 

on to Philly!

Only mistake was trying to get 3 innings out of Herget after he threw 2 innings on Friday. Our A-pen needed a day.

[formerlybis]

7 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

I enjoy your comments & posts as a general rule - you obviously have a ton of baseball knowledge 

I simply don’t see how the squeeze with no outs by Frelick was a good idea

I'm seeking to understand, here, not criticize - why was it a bad idea? As "just a fan", 4-3, bottom 8 with 1st & 3rd nobody out - get me at least that one run and it makes the ninth a whole lot less worrisome.  Don't squeeze plays work most of the time? A guy like Frelick should have that arrow in his quiver.

Sanchez really bailed them out though.

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, yourout said:

Odd stat of the day... All 6 runs were 2 out RBIs

Entering today the Brewers 293 PAs with two outs and RISP were most in MLB.

Their .818 OPS ranks 4th (league average is .704) and only the Phillies have more than their 99 RBIs.

[wiguy94]

17 minutes ago, formerlybis said:

I'm seeking to understand, here, not criticize - why was it a bad idea? As "just a fan", 4-3, bottom 8 with 1st & 3rd nobody out - get me at least that one run and it makes the ninth a whole lot less worrisome.  Don't squeeze plays work most of the time? A guy like Frelick should have that arrow in his quiver.

Sanchez really bailed them out though.

When you know you're not actually going to use your A-pen you shouldn't be playing for 1 run. If Devin Williams or Trevor Megill were pitching the 9th sure, but Enoli Paredes was.

[sveumrules]

Just to weigh in on the Freddy debate from earlier in the thread, I’ve always thought the best “quick and dirty” classification system for starting pitchers was…

5.0+ WAR = ACE
4 to 5 WAR = #1
3 to 4 WAR = #2
2 to 3 WAR = #3
1 to 2 WAR = #4

Using that breakdown and sorting by rWAR, among 117 SP with at least 100 IP in 2023 there were six ACE, fifteen #1, twenty one #2, twenty seven #3, twenty five #4, and then everybody else is essentially in the fungible fifth (or sixth) spot.

For more of a rate stat breakdown I’d go something like…

69 ERA- or lower = ACE
70 to 80 ERA- = #1
80 to 90 ERA- = #2
90 to 100 ERA- = #3
100 to 110 ERA- = #4

Applying that criteria to the same 117 SP with at least 100 IP in 2023 comes out to five ACE, fourteen #1, twenty seven #2, twenty three #3, and thirty #4.

[BruisedCrew]

29 minutes ago, formerlybis said:

I'm seeking to understand, here, not criticize - why was it a bad idea? As "just a fan", 4-3, bottom 8 with 1st & 3rd nobody out - get me at least that one run and it makes the ninth a whole lot less worrisome.  Don't squeeze plays work most of the time? A guy like Frelick should have that arrow in his quiver.

Sanchez really bailed them out though.

There’s room for differences of opinion, but I think bunting there was a bad idea for this reason.

Frelick should not be, and usually isn’t a real free swinger. With the infield drawn way in, I think a hitter like him should be thinking about hitting one past the drawn in infield or popping one over it. Against a lefty he should be thinking about going to left field. 
 

With the infield in a bunt has to be pretty good to get the runner in unless you go all out suicide squeeze, which I wouldn’t want in that situation either. 

[formerlybis]

2 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

There’s room for differences of opinion, but I think bunting there was a bad idea for this reason.

Frelick should not be, and usually isn’t a real free swinger. With the infield drawn way in, I think a hitter like him should be thinking about hitting one past the drawn in infield or popping one over it. Against a lefty he should be thinking about going to left field. 
 

With the infield in a bunt has to be pretty good to get the runner in unless you go all out suicide squeeze, which I wouldn’t want in that situation either. 

Thanks. What do the analytics say about safety squeezes? It's been my impression that they're hard to defend. 

As for going for more than one run in the inning, they'd still have a RISP with one out after the squeeze. On a sac fly, that would not be true.

[yourout]

A bit of levity for the "He is an ace / He is a #2" - "Less filling/Tastes Great" banter of the thread. For us old guys this seems like yesterday.

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

13 minutes ago, formerlybis said:

 

As for going for more than one run in the inning, they'd still have a RISP with one out after the squeeze. On a sac fly, that would not be true.

Good point. A successful squeeze bunt doesn't necessarily mean you're playing for one run, although in that vaacum i'd have been happy with one.

I'll reiterate though, sending up a PH was preferable to me. Hill still had to face one more hitter, and if Hoskins hits & gets passed I'm perfectly fine w/Ortiz hitting w/the bases loaded.

[82brewcrew82]

38 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

For more of a rate stat breakdown I’d go something like…

69 ERA- or lower = ACE
70 to 80 ERA- = #1
80 to 90 ERA- = #2
90 to 100 ERA- = #3
100 to 110 ERA- = #4

Applying that criteria to the same 117 SP with at least 100 IP in 2023 comes out to five ACE, fourteen #1, twenty seven #2, twenty three #3, and thirty #4.

So if, as quoted earlier in the thread, Freddy was an ERA-  of 88 last year and 90 this year, he looks like a boarder line 2/3 starter which is about what I expected.  A high end mid-rotation starter.

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, formerlybis said:

Thanks. What do the analytics say about safety squeezes? It's been my impression that they're hard to defend. 

As for going for more than one run in the inning, they'd still have a RISP with one out after the squeeze. On a sac fly, that would not be true.

The counterpoint is that swinging away increases the possibility of a hit that would drive in a run and move the other runner into scoring position without spending an out.

Hitting with the infield drawn in significantly increases the probability of a hitter getting a hit, either by hitting one through the infield or blooping one over it. 

I’m in the camp that considers outs a very valuable commodity and I hate giving them away.

[markedman5]

Tommy Pham everyone……..smh

 

[igor67]

I'm inclined to think he's a proud guy and dealing with being on a complete joke of a team ain't a whole lot of fun.

[StearnsFTW]

What a toad.

[formerlybis]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

The counterpoint is that swinging away increases the possibility of a hit that would drive in a run and move the other runner into scoring position without spending an out.

Hitting with the infield drawn in significantly increases the probability of a hitter getting a hit, either by hitting one through the infield or blooping one over it. 

I’m in the camp that considers outs a very valuable commodity and I hate giving them away.

Late inning close games are when trading outs for moving runners up becomes strategically advantageous (or at least you can more easily justify it). You don’t do it in the third inning.

[willie key]

This Phillies series is going to be tough.   It would be nice if a starter went 6-7 for once

 

and isn’t Williams coming back soon?   Is he throwing?

[yourout]

14 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

What a toad.

 

 

[kevinisaname]

Do we think Koenig will get the start in the next couple of days?

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, willie key said:

This Phillies series is going to be tough.   It would be nice if a starter went 6-7 for once

 

and isn’t Williams coming back soon?   Is he throwing?

Last update was still hoping to be back by late July

[wiguy94]

Just now, kevinisaname said:

Do we think Koenig will get the start in the next couple of days?

Him or Milner. Might just use an opener all series. Schwarber and Harper hitting 1 and 3 basically every day for Philly.

[sveumrules]

12 minutes ago, willie key said:

This Phillies series is going to be tough.   It would be nice if a starter went 6-7 for once

The Phillies have one of the deepest lineups in baseball (plus Castellanos).

I’m fine with the “starters” going twice through the order then handing it over to the bullpen with the 2nd highest WPA in MLB this year.

That is the formula.

Trying to get 6-7 IP out of Rea/Wilson versus the Phils is just asking to get bombed.

[willie key]

Props to the brewers.   They had to make some hay this month with an easier schedule.  And have built up a nice lead.   Because they sure as heck got a tough schedule after the all star break.     
 

it will be interesting what the GM is going to do as it looks like we are contenders.   He’s going to have to find some decent starters