Willie Adames

[Ghostbear]

It's time to get very serious about Willie Adames.  As an old player, coach (high school, college in the summer), I see Willie Adames as one of the top shortstops in baseball. Why? Given not only his on field performance and how he plays shortstop, also his value to the culture of the team off the field and in the locker room.  It has become very, very obvious, that Brewers are one of the youngest teams in baseball.  William Contreras and Willie Adames are the leaders of the team. Both are veteran players who are tough, determined, and lead the team's culture.  Murph has talked about that more than once. Personally, I love Murph's method of baseball, stealing bases, bunting, players hitting for average rather than home runs, it's called knowing how to win and using the skills of his players.  Think about this, Yelich is 27.9 feet per second to first base, but he is now only the 4th or 5th fastest player on the team.  Willie Adames, Bryce Turang, and now Ortiz at third base, make up one of the best defensive infields in baseball. Rhys Hoskins is okay, but he needs to find his swing  again after his ham string injury.   Willie Adames has also lead the National Leage in terms of home runs by a short stop.  Dansby Swanson's contract is 170 million over 7 years with a $7,000,000 signing bonus and other guarantees.  That contract was more, I think, than Swanson is worth.  Adames, this year for sure, has been much better than Swanson. Once again, Antanasio could have had Adames for a long term contract last year when Willie went to them and asked to have discussions about that. But Antanasio and his administration put him off because "he had another year left on his contract."  Now that Mookie Betts is out for the year, the Dodgers will be after Adames.  They realize his value.  What Antanasio never, ever, considers is the importance and value of the player as a part of the team's culture, and as a leader to the team.  The morale crash that happened when Stearns traded Hader was of shock value. The team's culture folded up.  Trading Adames will have a similar if not greater effect.  Meanwhile, Antanasio invests in soccer teams in the UK and Portugal. What?  Hey Mark, why don't you invest in the Brewers. The fans and the state and the county, have made a huge investment in the stadium and thus in the team.  While the Brewers are the smallest market team in baseball they have for years been one of the top attendance draws of all teams.   So, Mark, the time to make a decision about Willie Adames is at a very serious juncture. Go to him, tell him how much of a value he is to the team AND YOUR organization, and that you want to keep him around.  Give him a base of around 5 years at $130 million with a chance to make $30 million more a year based on his performance: 250 BA average-$1,000,000; 25 home runs-$1,000,000, Gold Glove-$1,000,000, shortstop who is among the best five in terms of lowest errors-$1,000,000, play offs-$1,000,000, world series-$1,000,000. Willie is all about leadership and performing. He is and  has always been one of the first guys at the field for practice and batting practice. HE SETS STANDARDS FOR THE TEAM.  Reward the guy for his dedication to the team, because really, it's also his dedication to YOUR ORGANIZATION. It will change the current view of your leadership from an owner who thinks of a player as a commodity, to an owner who values dedication and performance.   

[sveumrules]

His name is Willy.

[tmwiese55]

I would pass on giving him a contract in that Swanson world.   If he doesn't like what he sees out there and takes our 1 year arby (I think that's how it works) I'm down for that but I'll pass on the ages low to mid 30s years for 25+ mil per year when even in his good year right now is at .769 ops and was in the low 700s last year. Remember he already turns 29 in a few weeks.  Or say he decides he needs a Hoskins style prove it deal, sure give that a try here so its minimal risk to us.   

Love all the positives you say too but a team with our budget has to spend that money more wisely.   There is two guys on the team now that can step in and play very good SS D for league min.  Don't get me wrong though, if they did do some kind of deal like that I'll cross my fingers and hope for the best that he can stay above 750 ops with good D for at least the next 3-4 years before we eat it the last 2-3 years. 

[markedman5]

Most people seem to view his tenure as an owner as being  good to very good.

You can value someone and still not be willing to pay him “ whatever it takes” to keep him.

By all accounts Antanasio made a big offer in an attempt to keep him…(100 M plus)….if Willy wanted to stay he could have accepted the offer……..he and his agent decided they wanted to test the market………the reality is other teams have richer owners and more importantly larger revenue streams than the Brewers do.

Best of luck to Adames…….I’ve enjoyed having him as a member of the Brewers.

ps wait a few weeks for the “Adames stinks …..we should have traded him” sentiment when he goes into a slump…….which he is prone to do.

[Frisbee Slider]

Paying Adames in his 30’s for the player he sometimes was in his 20’s is not likely worth the investment.

We would all have pitchforks out after one bad month after he signs a nine-figure deal.

[BrewerFan]

So many flaws in this...in my opinion, but lets start here;

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It's time to get very serious about Willie Adames.

What is there to suggest we haven't been? The Brewers seem like a pretty serious organization. They've talked about an extension with Adames. 

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Once again, Antanasio could have had Adames for a long term contract last year when Willie went to them and asked to have discussions about that. But Antanasio and his administration put him off because "he had another year left on his contract." 

Yeah, this is NOT what happened. Just for starters, Attanasio is going to be involved in those discussions, but for those who follow the Brewers closely, they understand Attanasio is now MUCH more removed from the day to day decision making. While he would obviously play a role in giving Adames what will likely be a ~7-8 year and ~200M deal, that'd start with Arnold and staff. They DO have two of their best young players who play Shortstop and the Brewers have a finite amount of resources given their TV deals are worth HUNDREDS of MILLIONS less per year than the likes of the Dodgers who...apparently can figure out things the Brewers can't.

As for the Brewers just dismissing Adames and this quote you came up with why they didn't try and sign him because "He had another year left on his contract," who are you quoting and please cite the source?

Attanasio;

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“plenty of offers” to Adames throughout the offseason in hopes of retaining him on a long-term deal. While Attanasio did not provide further details on those offers, his comments appeared to suggest that he does not have confidence in his ability to keep Adames in Milwaukee long term at this point.

 

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Now that Mookie Betts is out for the year, the Dodgers will be after Adames.  They realize his value.

Yeah, the Brewers also realize his value and the Dodgers had tried to trade for Adames well before Betts went down with an injury. The Brewers said no(they were serious about him). 

The Dodgers aren't special in seeing Adames value, they just have a TV deal that pays them...what, 8.5B over 25 years whereas the Brewers get ~30-35M a year and that's up in the air with Bally declaring bankruptcy. I can assure you, if the Brewers had 200-300M more in TV revenue...their payroll would be higher and then THEY'D be one of those teams that "realize his value."

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 What Antanasio never, ever, considers is the importance and value of the player as a part of the team's culture, and as a leader to the team.  The morale crash that happened when Stearns traded Hader was of shock value. The team's culture folded up.  Trading Adames will have a similar if not greater effect.

First of all, this is absurd. Everyone, including Attanasio has talked about Adames importance as a leader.

Second, circling back to an earlier point, Attanasio isn't the one making these calls. When Hader was traded, Stearns called him and he did clear it with him, but Attanasio looked as upset as anyone. It didn't save money. It DID get us a really good-looking young pitcher, then led to a superstar catcher, a really good HL reliever, and a 3rd reliever who has good stuff. May never develop, but you get Gasser, Contreras, Payamps...not to mention Hader was just melting down at the time, hard to point to that trade.

As for the "team morale," sure. The Brewers have said that was a mistake. I think that's a bogus argument personally. They were playing poor baseball the previous two months and they played the same after the trade. It was a team that basically had a hot start and...that's it. They were roughly ~500. 

 

I don't think we're trading Adames though...but frankly, I'd consider it. If the Dodgers want to REALLY pay for him, they want to give up a Bobby Miller and Kyle Hurt, I'm gonna make that deal. As you point out, this is a young team. The window is just opening. So getting a couple of guys who can be TOR type arms, that's worth it when you have two guys who can slide back to SS, their natural positions.

But short of some outrageously lopsided trade(that I think any team would make)...I don't think there's been any indication they're shopping Adames.

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Meanwhile, Antanasio invests in soccer teams in the UK and Portugal. What?  Hey Mark, why don't you invest in the Brewers. The fans and the state and the county, have made a huge investment in the stadium and thus in the team.  While the Brewers are the smallest market team in baseball they have for years been one of the top attendance draws of all teams.

I cannot express how little I care about Attanasio investing in soccer teams. It's totally irrelevant. Did the Brewers slash payroll after those investments? Are you asking him to run the team at a loss for years on end and that he shouldn't invest in other things but the Brewers?

 

I'd also like to remind people, the man has the right to do as he chooses and he IS spending money on the Brewers, the money the state spent for the stadium wasn't altruism, it was so they didn't lose that tax base and so it didn't kill the businesses around it, but that's beside the point. We ARE the smallest market, we have among the cheapest tickets, but the BIGGEST issue...TV MONEY. We don't have enough eyes in this market to get the type of deals other teams do. That's ALWAYS going to put us at a financial disadvantage. 

Yet...we ARE still spending.

I'd also like to just reiterate the fact ONE more time Mark Attanasio DOES NOT OWN 100% or even 50% of the Brewers. He's the principal owner, not even a majority owner. I believe he owns ~38% of the team, but I may be off a point or two either way.  

 

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So, Mark, the time to make a decision about Willie Adames is at a very serious juncture. Go to him, tell him how much of a value he is to the team AND YOUR organization, and that you want to keep him around.  Give him a base of around 5 years at $130 million

I would be willing to make a BET that if Adames could be signed for 5/130, he'd be signed. The 30M in incentives, that'd be included. You'd be at 5 years and 160M....and I'd guess Adames is looking for 200M over 8 years. Players at his age generally don't want a 5 year deal so they hit FA again just in time for their age-35 season. They generally want to 7-8 years at that AAV knowing that the last ~3 years or so the deal will be a bad contract. 

 

It's also worth noting the Brewers have 3 players in their current IF whose natural position is SS. Who will end up playing SS in the future. Adames is 3rd in WAR for this season behind a rookie and a 2nd-year player in Ortiz and Turang. Probably something worth considering before you go out and spend 200M on Adames...as much as we all like him. 

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Reward the guy for his dedication to the team, because really, it's also his dedication to YOUR ORGANIZATION. It will change the current view of your leadership from an owner who thinks of a player as a commodity, to an owner who values dedication and performance.   

We've tried...again, as I pointed out, they made "many offers," to Adames.

As for this perception of the organization, can you tell me which team doesn't view players as a commodity? Hell, a business that doesn't treat employees as a commodity? 

That's not mutually exclusive with valuing dedication and performance. 

They've valued those. Where's the plea to Willy to take less money than he could get on the open market to sign this 5/130 deal with incentives?

 

Love to see Willy stay in Milwaukee. He has to be willing to(he did not go and ask and the Brewers just ignored his pleas for a contract) and it has to make sense for the Brewers. I'll ALWAYS be a Willy fan...and maybe they can work something out. Just seems pretty unlikely given he's probably a top ~5 FA with Soto and Burnes two of those above him. He's going to get a LOT more than 130...IMO. 

And can we please stop talking about the Soccer clubs as if there's ANY correlation? 

[BrewerFan]

11 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Paying Adames in his 30’s for the player he sometimes was in his 20’s is not likely worth the investment.

We would all have pitchforks out after one bad month after he signs a nine-figure deal.

Yup. I mean, to the OPs point, if he's willing to take 5/130, THAT is a deal I think would be a good, fair deal for the Brewers. But I see him #4 on top FA lists behind Soto, Burnes and Pete Alanso. 

The chasm between what the OP thinks he's sign for and what he'll likely sign for seems pretty wide. 

And then you've got Turang and Ortiz. Pretty damn good backup plans.

[Brewcrew82]

The over the top criticism of Attanasio along the lines of the OP never ceases to astound me. 

Since Attanasio bought the franchise from the Seligs before the 2005 season, the Brewers, with a .517 W%, have had the fourth best record in the NL and the eighth best record in all of baseball. 

In the five years preceding the sale during the early 2000s, we had a W% of .410. Worst in the NL and second worst in MLB behind only Tampa Bay.

The 90s weren't much better, as we were 22nd in MLB with a .478 W%. 

Reading this you'd swear Ghostbear is a Gen Z'er instead of an "old" player and coach. Attanasio has taken this franchise from the laughingstock it was under the Seligs-Priebs to arguably the preeminent small-market franchise, where the big markets are continually plucking our brain talent (e.g., Stearns, Counsell). And yet we just keep chugging along.... 

[liveforoctober]

If guys got paid for being good clubhouse guys Suter would be making $30mil/yr.

[owbc]

I'll pass on an Adames extension. I don't think we should ever be handing out contracts to top tier free agents. Those type of contracts are frequently burning franchises that have far more spending power than we do. I feel the same way about Contreras -- enjoy him while he's here but we'll surely have someone else in the pipeline to catch for us in 2028. 

I'd rather spend the money trying to buy out arbitration/FA years of our younger players who are on the right side of age 30. More Chourio-like contracts please, and try to buy out the arbitration years of Turang and Ortiz. 

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, owbc said:

I'll pass on an Adames extension. I don't think we should ever be handing out contracts to top tier free agents. Those type of contracts are frequently burning franchises that have far more spending power than we do. I feel the same way about Contreras -- enjoy him while he's here but we'll surely have someone else in the pipeline to catch for us in 2028. 

I'd rather spend the money trying to buy out arbitration/FA years of our younger players who are on the right side of age 30. More Chourio-like contracts please, and try to buy out the arbitration years of Turang and Ortiz. 

Ortiz turns 26 in less than a month. Extending him and buying out some FA years would be getting his age 31/32, 32/33, 33/34 years if you bought out 3 FA years. If you don't want them to extend Adames into his 30's why do you want them to do so with Ortiz?

[tmwiese55]

I probably wouldn't' even do the 5/130 discussed but at least I'd consider since 5 years isn't crazy long.  If you guys ae thinking he's going to drastically top that given the last posts, then yea its a not even close.  Let the Angels do it and then wonder why they're winning 74 games. 

I guess one thing to note is the league is very strong at SS right now, I won't to say the best production ever, so his market might not be so hot.

Random best guess of who could be a good fit for him is SF. They've been looking to spend big money and keep striking out, but did do the shorter terms ones late last offseason. Hope Willy gets paid and does well, but being a HR based player he'd get hurt by that park.

[tmwiese55]

4 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Ortiz turns 26 in less than a month. Extending him and buying out some FA years would be getting his age 31/32, 32/33, 33/34 years if you bought out 3 FA years. If you don't want them to extend Adames into his 30's why do you want them to do so with Ortiz?

Generally I agree with you.  But, the idea that poster proposed would be buying those very cheaply since you're doing it so early, might even be team options.  Its not for 25 mil per year.   The whole contract is probably under 60 mil. 

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, tmwiese55 said:

I probably wouldn't' even do the 5/130 discussed but at least I'd consider since 5 years isn't crazy long.  If you guys ae thinking he's going drastically top top that given the last pots, then yea its a not even close.  Let the Angels do it and then wonder why they're winning 74 games. 

I guess one thing to note is the league is very strong at SS right now, I won't to say the best production ever, so his market might not be so hot.

Random best guess of who could be a good fit for him is SF. They've been looking to spend big money and keep striking out, but did do the shorter terms ones late last offseason. Hope Willy gets paid and does well, but being a HR based player he'd get hurt by that park.

The Dodgers are a pretty obvious fit for Adames. Mookie is not a SS and I doubt they want Mookie playing SS as a long term thing. Their only notable SS prospect is 18 years old and in the ACL.

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Generally I agree with you.  But, the idea that poster proposed would be buying those very cheaply since you're doing it so early, might even be team options.  Its not for 25 mil per year.   The whole contract is probably under 60 mil. 

Yeah you aren't extending Joey Ortiz and buying out 3 years of FA for under $60M. That possibility is long gone.

[tmwiese55]

7 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

The Dodgers are a pretty obvious fit for Adames. Mookie is not a SS and I doubt they want Mookie playing SS as a long term thing. Their only notable SS prospect is 18 years old and in the ACL.

I assumed they'd pull back on spending a bit and/or look for a better spot than him.  For example, Bichette after next year, though he's struggling this year

[tmwiese55]

32 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah you aren't extending Joey Ortiz and buying out 3 years of FA for under $60M. That possibility is long gone.

Then don't do it.   But that's the OPs point, put money in that area to get it to a number that does work, so if you say 60 doesn't, getting to 75 maybe does, or whatever example you want to do. Either way, its more cost efficient than paying guys 25 mil at age 35.   There's others here who are bigger experts than me on doing all this math on their years/arby etc, but remember he's playing for like nothing the next 3 years gambling his health until he's in 30s before he can get that payday.  So you don't have to give much for those first few years. Then its arby and a couple more years.  Hey, you were just frustrated hanging in AAA at age 25 doing nothing, you've had 2 good months, here's 50 mil right now and you never have to worry about money no matter what happens.  Or gamble year by year on your play and health, only to hit FA at a bad age where teams won't want to pay you since you came up late.  That's the basic discussion, up to him.     

Just us brewers fans saw a few examples of guys in his similar situation who should've took a contract like that, Villar, Arcia, Keston, etc.      And to a larger scale degree, Woodruff and Nelson

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Then don't do it.   But that's the OPs point, put money in that area to get it to a number that does work, so if you 60 doesn't, betting to 75 maybe does, or whatever example you want to do. Either way, its more cost efficient than paying guys 25 mil at age 35.   There's others here who are bigger experts than me on doing all this math on their years/arby etc, but remember he's playing for like nothing the next 3 years gambling his health until he's in 30s before he can get that payday.  So you don't have to give much for those first few years. Then its arby and a couple more years.  Hey, you were just frustrated hanging in AAA at age 25 doing nothing, you've had 2 good months, here's 50 mil right now and you never have to worry about money no matter what happens.  Or gamble year by year on your play and health, only to hit FA at a bad age where teams won't want to pay you since you came up late.  That's the basic discussion, up to him.     

Just us brewers fans saw a few examples of guys in his similar situation who should've took a contract like that, Villar, Arcia, Keston, etc.      And to a larger scale degree, Woodruff and Nelson

I don't understand this big reluctance by fans here to extend Adames. You can sign these players to pre-arb extensions while Adames is extended. By the time Chourio's contract actually gets expensive, Yelich would be off the books and Adames would be towards the end of a hypothetical extension. If you did extend Joey Ortiz same story. By the time his deal actually is expensive Adames at the end of his extension. Chourio's first year making over $10M is 2029 where he's at $15M and he's not set to make over $20M until 2032. 

[owbc]

38 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Ortiz turns 26 in less than a month. Extending him and buying out some FA years would be getting his age 31/32, 32/33, 33/34 years if you bought out 3 FA years. If you don't want them to extend Adames into his 30's why do you want them to do so with Ortiz?

5/130 is a pipe dream for Adames. His next contract will be for the rest of his career production. 

With a younger guy like Ortiz, you are not buying his entire career worth of production. You are buying out the arbitration years and giving him financial stability. Even if the ship has sailed on it being a highly discounted deal like Chourio's, there is still plenty of opportunity to come up with a deal that works for both sides.

Then again, we don't have to sign any longer term contracts to anyone. Adames probably wouldn't be here right now if he didn't have a down year in 2023 that reduced his return value. Otherwise he would have been traded already. 

 

 

[tmwiese55]

9 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I don't understand this big reluctance by fans here to extend Adames. You can sign these players to pre-arb extensions while Adames is extended. By the time Chourio's contract actually gets expensive, Yelich would be off the books and Adames would be towards the end of a hypothetical extension. If you did extend Joey Ortiz same story. By the time his deal actually is expensive Adames at the end of his extension. Chourio's first year making over $10M is 2029 where he's at $15M and he's not set to make over $20M until 2032. 

Because almost all big deals to guys for their aging seasons turn out to be complete duds unless they're truly elite players like Betts/Freeman.  It's really that simple. I mean just in that other thread we had that talk on Swanson, they are very similar players going into FA in the 750-770 OPS ballpark with good D, and in year two of that deal it already looks rough.  But yea of course there is a number that could work, but you and others just said some pretty high ones that just aren't feasible here.  Think the Padres are loving that Xander deal right now?

But to what the person said about focusing on buying out years for other guys instead. We all like Adames and would generally want him on the team the next 2-3 years if money wasn't factor, just not at 25 mil per year and for another 3-4 years after too.  Lets say during that good first season he had with us that they'd found a way to get him to sign through the 26 or 27 season at what the price would've been way back then, we'd be sitting pretty well right now then looking at his next few years at say 8-12 mil per year. 

[TURBO]

41 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

I assumed they'd pull back on spending a bit and/or look for a better spot than him.  For example, Bichette after next year, though he's struggling this year

Struggling is putting it mildly, he has fallen off a cliff.

[owbc]

These are all essentially career contracts unless noted:

Corey Seagar: 27 at signing / $325M 

Francisco Lintor: 28 at signing / $341M

Trea Turner: 29 at signing / $300M

Xander Bogaerts: 30 at signing / $280M

Carlos Correa: 28 at signing / $200M (6 years)

Dansby Swanson: 28 at signing / $177M (7 years)

Willy Adames: 29 at signing 

[wiguy94]

13 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Because almost all big deals to guys for their aging seasons turn out to be complete duds unless they're truly elite players like Betts/Freeman.  It's really that simple. I mean just in that other thread we had that talk on Swanson, they are very similar players going into FA in the 750-770 OPS ballpark with good D, and in year two of that deal it already looks rough.  But yea of course there is a number that could work, but you and others just said some pretty high ones that just aren't feasible here.  Think the Padres are loving that Xander deal right now?

But to what the person said about focusing on buying out years for other guys instead. We all like Adames and would generally want him on the team the next 2-3 years if money wasn't factor, just not at 25 mil per year and for another 3-4 years after too.  Lets say during that good first season he had with us that they'd found a way to get him to sign through the 26 or 27 season at what the price would've been way back then, we'd be sitting pretty well right now then looking at his next few years at say 8-12 mil per year. 

Adames has been far more consistent than Swanson heading into FA. Adames only season below a 3 fWAR/150 G pace was his rookie season. Swanson was below that pace for 3 of his 7 seasons in Atlanta and that doesn't include his rookie year 

[tmwiese55]

15 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Adames has been far more consistent than Swanson heading into FA. Adames only season below a 3 fWAR/150 G pace was his rookie season. Swanson was below that pace for 3 of his 7 seasons in Atlanta and that doesn't include his rookie year 

Adames was not very good the last two years. OBPs around .300. 756 and 717 OPS, those are not great numbers and I don't think many here would describe him as consistent.  Of course they're not exactly the same, Adames has a bit more power.  But the general idea of both are SSs who are good at D, but only OK (not great/elite) at offense is generally true.  They're also hitting FA at the same age.  Its about as good of a comp as you can get.

On the baseball reference similar players list, Swanson is #4.

Similar Batters through 27

1. Rico Petrocelli (954.7)
2. Miguel Tejada (948.1)
3. Juan Uribe (942.2)
4. Dansby Swanson (936.1)

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Adames was not very good the last two years. OBPs around .300. 756 and 717 OPS, those are not great numbers and I don't think many here would describe him as consistent.  Of course they're not exactly the same, Adames has a bit more power.  But the general idea of both are SSs who are good at D, but only OK (not great/elite) at offense is generally true.  They're also hitting FA at the same age.  Its about as good of a comp as you can get.

On the baseball reference similar players list, Swanson is #4.

Similar Batters through 27

1. Rico Petrocelli (954.7)
2. Miguel Tejada (948.1)
3. Juan Uribe (942.2)
4. Dansby Swanson (936.1)

Adames had a 109 wRC+ and 4.4 fWAR in 2022...how is that not very good? I swear people on this site treat Adames like he's mediocre garbage when he's by far the second best SS in this franchise's history.