Impending Roster Crunch?

[Jopal78]

Just now, Thurston Fluff said:

 There are a lot of reasons a team may accept a veteran reliever as part of a trade package. Teams often trade players simply to even out the money. They also trade when they don't want to push a prospect too fast. Especially teams looking at total rebuilds or know they're more than a year or two away. They may also hope a reliever who has a year or more of control with some record of success gets hot in the second half and creates some trade value.

Take Milner for example. A team like the White Sox can offer him arbitration, shop him around to see if there are any takers. If not they can cut him or keep him and see if he rebounds for next season's deadline. If he doesn't, they weren't going to contend anyway. All they lose is a few million. For them it's not a big deal. What is certain is the only way to squeeze another player out of one of the original trade is to have him on the roster.

Anything is possible, I just don’t see it as probable. Most teams are looking to cut payroll at the deadline. Then there is the risk the player continues to struggle/ completely craters then it would be money and opportunity cost down the drain. Most importantly if other teams sense Milner for example is hanging by a thread to a 40 man spot, they’ll simply wait and see if he shakes loose and pick him up for nothing. 

[Outlander]

I do wonder if the Brewers would keep Zastryzny over Milner. Milner has been real bad against lefties this year and going to continue to see an increase in salary with his last year of arbitration in '25 while Zastryny will still be at the minimum. Neither has options so pretty much a guarantee that one or both has to be DFA or part of a minor trade once some of these guys come back.

[CheezWizHed]

Andrew Chafin had similar numbers last year at the time we traded for him as Milner has this year.

Not saying people will be falling over themselves to get Milner from us.  Just saying it is possible.  Being left-handed gets him more opportunities.

[Jopal78]

8 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Andrew Chafin had similar numbers last year at the time we traded for him as Milner has this year.

Not saying people will be falling over themselves to get Milner from us.  Just saying it is possible.  Being left-handed gets him more opportunities.

My point exactly. Chafin came in having a down year with a 4.18 ERA in Arizona and put up a 5.82 ERA with Milwaukee and they had to pay him a 725,000 buyout on top of that awful performance to buy out his club option for 2024.

[Scooterfletcher]

Both Z and Milner will be kept.   Capra could be removed from the 40 as well as the guy that replaced Kuechel. 

[SoCalBrewfan]

I think teams tend to take a longer view of ability and performance than some fans do, especially with relievers. Just to continue with Chafin, plenty of Brewer fans seem to hold him up as an example of a completely valueless pitcher...but he's had a pretty solid first half with Detroit and is likely to draw interest from contenders and get the Tigers something at the deadline. (Also, paying a $725K buyout is not much of a hardship, just as the remainder of Milner's contract is unlikely to be much of a deterrent for any team except perhaps the As.)

Reliever performance is volatile and samples are small, and teams feel like they can fix things and/or get lucky. This will especially be true of Brewers-like orgs that are trying to improve on a budget, so will prefer to pay Walmart prices for a questionable reliever with a bad first half but some track record of success, rather than emptying their system for Mason Miller. Is a team going to just look up first half stats for Payamps or Milner and decide they are trash, or are they going to look at scouting and long-term track records and see some value there? 

As an example (not a good one for us), the Brewers traded for Daniel Norris at the deadline in 2021 despite his ERA of 5.89. His FIP was 3.30 and I'm sure the Brewers considered that and/or thought they could do what they did with Drew Pomeranz, who had an ERA of 5.68 as a Giants starter but was great down the stretch in the Brewers bullpen. (Notably, Pomeranz parlayed that into a multiyear deal from the Padres.) Taylor Rogers looked pretty bad in Milwaukee, after a middling first half in San Diego, but he also got a multiyear deal afterwards and has pitched well in San Francisco. A year or half season of poor performance by a reliever doesn't necessarily mean they are cooked or will have no value. 

Also, the Brewers did some roster cleanup last years' deadline (Urias, Jackson) that was peripheral to the 'big' deals (e.g., Canha and Santana), so it's hardly a laughable suggestion that they would do so this year as well. Milner probably doesn't have much value to a rebuilding team, but it's not hard to see him dealt to a contender looking for LH relief help, either in a multi team deal or as a side trade to get some non-40 roster depth. The Brewers tend to try to squeeze maximal value out of their roster so I could see them picking up some lottery tickets or upper-minors pitching depth as they realign the roster.

Hard to guess, of course, they generally manage to surprise me, for better or worse.

[Thurston Fluff]

14 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

My point exactly. Chafin came in having a down year with a 4.18 ERA in Arizona and put up a 5.82 ERA with Milwaukee and they had to pay him a 725,000 buyout on top of that awful performance to buy out his club option for 2024.

He said almost the exact opposite of what you were saying. Chafin got his original team a prospect even when he was struggling based on his history. You said nobody would want someone with a similar profile. Milner would be even more attractive because there isn't a buyout if he struggles and is under control for another year if he does get it together.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 hour ago, Thurston Fluff said:

He said almost the exact opposite of what you were saying. Chafin got his original team a prospect even when he was struggling based on his history. You said nobody would want someone with a similar profile. Milner would be even more attractive because there isn't a buyout if he struggles and is under control for another year if he does get it together.

Chafin had a MUCH larger and more distinguished track record. 

[CheezWizHed]

8 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Chafin had a MUCH larger and more distinguished track record. 

Does that really matter to people when trading for him?  Oh, this guy was great 8 years ago...

Milner has been very good for 2 years (and terrible before that), so it isn't like he is a "flash in the pan".  If someone is going to trade for Milner, it will because they think he can produce something more like the last two year instead of what he is doing now.

The comp with Chafin is simply that they are both 33 year old LH RPs  (Chafin at the time the Brewers traded for him) that are/were having down years.  

Not saying there is a huge market for Milner, but it can happen. He is left-handed for pete's sake!!!!

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Does that really matter to people when trading for him?  Oh, this guy was great 8 years ago...

Milner has been very good for 2 years (and terrible before that), so it isn't like he is a "flash in the pan".  If someone is going to trade for Milner, it will because they think he can produce something more like the last two year instead of what he is doing now.

The comp with Chafin is simply that they are both 33 year old LH RPs  (Chafin at the time the Brewers traded for him) that are/were having down years.  

Not saying there is a huge market for Milner, but it can happen. He is left-handed for pete's sake!!!!

Milner also has really good peripherals this season, so it's not like he's just been getting smashed like Payamps. Plenty of reason for a team to believe that there's better ahead of him for this year. I'm a big Hoby guy, but if the Brewers could swap Hoby out for a younger, cheaper reliever with options, it probably would make sense with the RP log jam we have in front of us. 

I know Zastryzny's sample is really small, but I honestly am buying his success. He's totally changed his pitch mix and this pitch mix was dominating in AAA.

[LouisEly]

There's also still a LOT of teams with 3-4 games of the wild card, and a lot of them need bullpen help.  Arizona has one LHRP (who, like Milner, has a not good ERA but a much better FIP).  And they have Thiago Vieira in their bullpen.  The Mets have Jake Diekman and Adrian Houser in their bullpen.   The Mariners have one LHRP plus Mike Baumann in their bullpen.  Hell, the Mariners have one LHP on their entire team.

Payams and Milner won't be the best guys in anyone's bullpen, but they'll be improvements over a lot of guys in other team's bullpens.

[jay87shot]

I was trying to make the point to trade Hoby and Payamps over a month ago when Hoby had like a low 2 era and Payamps was around 3.5. I am all for trading them if we can get anything interesting that isn't on the 40 man roster. With Hall, Williams, Koenig, Paredes, Ross, Baukauskas coming back and maybe someone like Misi towards the end of the year we have enough depth to loss those vets. We can't have like 27 pitchers on the 40 man.

[Jopal78]

10 hours ago, LouisEly said:

There's also still a LOT of teams with 3-4 games of the wild card, and a lot of them need bullpen help.  Arizona has one LHRP (who, like Milner, has a not good ERA but a much better FIP).  And they have Thiago Vieira in their bullpen.  The Mets have Jake Diekman and Adrian Houser in their bullpen.   The Mariners have one LHRP plus Mike Baumann in their bullpen.  Hell, the Mariners have one LHP on their entire team.

Payams and Milner won't be the best guys in anyone's bullpen, but they'll be improvements over a lot of guys in other team's bullpens.

My whole point  seems to be getting lost. Someone suggested hypothetically if Payamps and Milner are the odd men out in this roster crunch the Brewers could always trade them.
 

My point is/was neither one has been very good this year so the demand to trade for them will be slight and the losing clubs are unlikely to take on payroll at the deadline especially in the form of struggling middle relievers.
 

But more importantly the other teams in the league certainly are aware of the Brewers roster crunch and if they too believe Payamps and/or Milner will be the odd men out, they’re not likely going to trade assets to get them in the here and now when they might be able to pick them up for free if the Brewers drop them in the coming days.

[Outlander]

Teams may be willing to give up something, a lottery ticket, even though they are aware of the Brewers situation. If the Brewers get rid of somebody they have to go through the DFA process which in itself results in trades like when the Brewers obtained Hudson and gave up an asset. So if there is a team interested anyway they might as well speed up the process and get the guy they want.

[Thurston Fluff]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

My whole point  seems to be getting lost. Someone suggested hypothetically if Payamps and Milner are the odd men out in this roster crunch the Brewers could always trade them.
 

My point is/was neither one has been very good this year so the demand to trade for them will be slight and the losing clubs are unlikely to take on payroll at the deadline especially in the form of struggling middle relievers.
 

But more importantly the other teams in the league certainly are aware of the Brewers roster crunch and if they too believe Payamps and/or Milner will be the odd men out, they’re not likely going to trade assets to get them in the here and now when they might be able to pick them up for free if the Brewers drop them in the coming days.

If a team wants a guy they'd be willing to trade a lottery ticket to make sure they got them. LosisELy pointed out multiple teams that might be interested. If one of them wants to make a minor move that doesn't upset their farm too much that is exactly the type of move you make. Given a lot of teams are on the fringe one would imagine the moves they'd make would also be on the fringe. While it wouldn't make sense to make a big splash on a rental for an outside shot it would make sense to make a small move on a player and see what happens.

To your point that losing clubs are unlikely to take on payroll that's just not true. Teams often take on payroll to facilitate a trade. That's especially true for non impact players and/or rentals. What they don't want is an average player with no  future on the team staying on the team the whole season and get nothing for them. Given those players are less in demand they have fewer options. Thus if evening out the money is not prohibitive.

[LouisEly]

3 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

But more importantly the other teams in the league certainly are aware of the Brewers roster crunch and if they too believe Payamps and/or Milner will be the odd men out, they’re not likely going to trade assets to get them in the here and now when they might be able to pick them up for free if the Brewers drop them in the coming days.

And if they do they will have to compete with multiple other teams to try to sign them as free agents with no guarantee that they will sign with them.  By trading for them they guarantee that they will get them, and it may cost less overall than what they might have to sign them for as a free agent with a handful of other teams competing for the same people.

By trading for them they are eliminating the risk that they choose to sign with someone else.

[Jopal78]

4 hours ago, LouisEly said:

And if they do they will have to compete with multiple other teams to try to sign them as free agents with no guarantee that they will sign with them.  By trading for them they guarantee that they will get them, and it may cost less overall than what they might have to sign them for as a free agent with a handful of other teams competing for the same people.

By trading for them they are eliminating the risk that they choose to sign with someone else.

You could be right, but the odds that happen are nil. Even in the Bryan Hudson cited  the Brewers traded a 19 year old who had TJ surgery and had not taken the mound as a professional. 
 

Im not saying it wouldn’t happen but if Milner or Payamps was cut loose, the totality of the circumstances suggests their won’t be a feeding frenzy and Milwaukee wouldn’t get anything in a trade but a warm body 

[brewmann04]

With Relievers coming back thinking the Brewers can move someone. Besides can’t remember that last time the Brewers added a reliever at the deadline that helped out 

[Lloyd330]

Didn't know where to put this, but what are we going to do with Eric Haase - Guy has earned a roster spot 

[Jopal78]

15 minutes ago, Lloyd330 said:

Didn't know where to put this, but what are we going to do with Eric Haase - Guy has earned a roster spot 

It’s 21 at bats. I don’t think they make decisions based on that size of sample. Although admittedly, I would not say Gary Sanchez has the firmest grip on the back up catcher spot either. 

[Brian]

1 hour ago, Lloyd330 said:

Didn't know where to put this, but what are we going to do with Eric Haase - Guy has earned a roster spot 

Maybe Haase could be both backup catcher/1st base/DH because since we seem to be pretty weak over there. Just a suggestion if he is capable to do so. 

[Brian]

29 minutes ago, Brian said:

Maybe Haase could be both backup catcher/1st base/DH because since we seem to be pretty weak over there. Just a suggestion if he is capable to do so. 

I would cut Bauers. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, Brian said:

I would cut Bauers. 

While I recognize his value to the team, I'm not a huge Bauers fan. That being said, I'd be shocked if they decided to go the rest of the season with Hoskins at 1B backed up by someone like Sanchez (Haase has played a little OF, no 1B that I know of). If Bauers is gone there's no one better than Rhys there, and he's average-ish defensively. They might be a bit more comfortable letting Bauers go if Black was good around the bag but we all know the story there.

[Brian]

2 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

While I recognize his value to the team, I'm not a huge Bauers fan. That being said, I'd be shocked if they decided to go the rest of the season with Hoskins at 1B backed up by someone like Sanchez (Haase has played a little OF, no 1B that I know of). If Bauers is gone there's no one better than Rhys there, and he's average-ish defensively. They might be a bit more comfortable letting Bauers go if Black was good around the bag but we all know the story there.

Yes, I see your point and there is always Garrett Mitchel to cut also. There are a lot of choices of who to cut. 

[Scooterfletcher]

I could see a tired arm going on the DL.   Say, Payamps when Devin is activated .   DL Hall maybe is optioned to AAA to continue starting and working on his pitches.

 

We won’t be cutting a good bullpen arm.  This will work itself out.