Playoff Roster?

[Brewcrew82]

Division is over. Brewers will be in the postseason for the 6th time in the last 7 years. Only real question is whether they'll be starting off in the WC or divisional round. With that in mind, how about some early theorizing on the playoff roster? One thing I will say is that there's still quite a bit of uncertainty for a team that is running away with things here and has one of the best run differentials in baseball, particularly with regard to the bullpen. Anyways, here's my way too early stab that is bound to age poorly over the next 6 weeks: 

C: Contreras, Sanchez

IF: Hoskins, Turang, Adames, Ortiz, Bauers, Black, Monasterio

OF: Chourio, Mitchell, Frelick, Perkins

SP: Peralta, Myers

RP: Williams, Megill, Payamps, Hudson, Koenig, Mears, Hall, Rea, Yoho, Misiorowski, Peguero

Going with a generic 13 position player 13 pitcher roster here. If they start in the Wild Card round, you can probably subtract a pitcher or two for a position player(s). On the pitching side of things, bullpen is clearly going to have to be what carries us similar to 2018. Peralta despite his inconsistencies will almost certainly be the game 1 starter. And I feel confident that Myers is going to be another starter. 3rd starter spot up for grabs imo. Rea has been great and probably should be the 3rd starter based on performance, but I just can't get over the feeling that he'll get eaten alive by playoff lineups. Civale has really turned it on though in the last couple of starts and could solidify himself as the best 3rd starter option. In a Wild Card series winner-go-home Game 3, I think they'd go full bullpen game. In a divisional series, I think they'd go traditional starter in Game 3 followed by a bullpen game for Game 4. 

As you can see, I'm all in on Yoho and Misiorowski being added for the stretch run. Peguero the last man, though you can make a case for Milner, Parades, Wilson, Bukauskas (if he ever gets healthy), etc. Overall, nasty, nasty bullpen

Position player side of things looks pretty stable. Not many guys, if any, you feel bad about being on the outside looking in. Could maybe see Haase making it as 3rd catcher so they can pinch hit Sanchez. 

[shanedog19]

39 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Division is over. Brewers will be in the postseason for the 6th time in the last 7 years. Only real question is whether they'll be starting off in the WC or divisional round. With that in mind, how about some early theorizing on the playoff roster? One thing I will say is that there's still quite a bit of uncertainty for a team that is running away with things here and has one of the best run differentials in baseball, particularly with regard to the bullpen. Anyways, here's my way too early stab that is bound to age poorly over the next 6 weeks: 

C: Contreras, Sanchez

IF: Hoskins, Turang, Adames, Ortiz, Bauers, Black, Monasterio

OF: Chourio, Mitchell, Frelick, Perkins

SP: Peralta, Myers

RP: Williams, Megill, Payamps, Hudson, Koenig, Mears, Hall, Rea, Yoho, Misiorowski, Peguero

Going with a generic 13 position player 13 pitcher roster here. If they start in the Wild Card round, you can probably subtract a pitcher or two for a position player(s). On the pitching side of things, bullpen is clearly going to have to be what carries us similar to 2018. Peralta despite his inconsistencies will almost certainly be the game 1 starter. And I feel confident that Myers is going to be another starter. 3rd starter spot up for grabs imo. Rea has been great and probably should be the 3rd starter based on performance, but I just can't get over the feeling that he'll get eaten alive by playoff lineups. Civale has really turned it on though in the last couple of starts and could solidify himself as the best 3rd starter option. In a Wild Card series winner-go-home Game 3, I think they'd go full bullpen game. In a divisional series, I think they'd go traditional starter in Game 3 followed by a bullpen game for Game 4. 

As you can see, I'm all in on Yoho and Misiorowski being added for the stretch run. Peguero the last man, though you can make a case for Parades, Wilson, Bukauskas (if he ever gets healthy), etc. Overall, nasty, nasty bullpen

Position player side of things looks pretty stable. Not many guys, if any, you feel bad about being on the outside looking in. Could maybe see Haase making it as 3rd catcher so they can pinch hit Sanchez. 

Hard to envision Montas or Civale not being on the playoff roster, regardless of round.

[Team Canada]

I would be shocked if Rea does not get game 2 or 3. I would bet #2, just because Myers is a rookie and Rea has been terrific.

[Team Canada]

1 minute ago, shanedog19 said:

Hard to envision Montas or Civale not being on the playoff roster, regardless of round.

Really? I would not be surprised at all to see at least one of them not on the roster. WC round probably neither of them make it.

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

I would be shocked if Rea does not get game 2 or 3. I would bet #2, just because Myers is a rookie and Rea has been terrific.

Yeah. Like I acknowledge, he probably deserves to start based on performance. I guess I've just never been much of a Rea believer and have been anticipating a fall off towards his peripherals for a while. Can't say I feel comfortable with him on the mound against the Dodgers, for example, as we saw this past week. 

In the end, I think Peralta is a definite starter. And Myers, despite being a rookie, has been our best and most consistent starter so I think you have to give him a start. In a Wild Card Series, I think they'd go with a bullpen game for the winner take all Game 3 if necessary. Division series I agree you're likely looking at Rea starting. 

[Brewcrew82]

14 minutes ago, shanedog19 said:

Hard to envision Montas or Civale not being on the playoff roster, regardless of round.

In a Wild Card series, it's very easy to envision them not being on the playoff roster. Last year, we went with only 11 pitchers. So, 3 starters at most and then the rest bullpen. Right now, they're behind Peralta, Rea, and Myers at minimum. 

[wiguy94]

11 hours ago, shanedog19 said:

Hard to envision Montas or Civale not being on the playoff roster, regardless of round.

I think it’s pretty easy to envision Civale not being on the playoff roster. I think Montas probably makes it because he has shown he can sustain throwing upper 90’s in small samples, but I don’t really see why Civale would have an argument for making it. You don’t need 5 SP. 

[shanedog19]

35 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I think it’s pretty easy to envision Civale not being on the playoff roster. I think Montas probably makes it because he has shown he can sustain throwing upper 90’s in small samples, but I don’t really see why Civale would have an argument for making it. You don’t need 5 SP. 

Fair point. Civale just got done shutting out the Guardians and is a veteran. Lots can change between now and October.

[sveumrules]

Brewers reliever depth is insane.

Enoli Paredes, Rob Zastryzny and Kevin Herget have put up pretty ridiculous numbers in AAA and their brief MLB looks and still might not even make the cut for September and beyond...

AAA combined
90.0 IP | 23 ER | 60 H | 32 BB+HBP | 125 K
2.30 ERA | 2.38 FIP | 1.02 WHIP

MLB combined
33.0 IP | 5 ER | 17 H | 15 BB+HBP | 24 K
1.36 ERA | 3.43 FIP | 0.97 WHIP | +0.92 WPA 

[liveforoctober]

Re: Mis .. is he on an innings plan this season that would affect him being available to us for the stretch run?

[markedman5]

4 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

Re: Mis .. is he on an innings plan this season that would affect him being available to us for the stretch run?

Not likely……I’m sure they are monitoring his innings but have said he is under consideration to be called up…….they wouldn’t do that if he wasn’t going to be available.

[Redd Vencher]

56 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

Not likely……I’m sure they are monitoring his innings but have said he is under consideration to be called up…….they wouldn’t do that if he wasn’t going to be available.

He's definitely on an innings limit. He won't pass it pitching out of the pen the remainder of the year, though.

[brewmann04]

Right now Rea and Meyers are one and two 

[Brewcrew82]

19 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

Right now Rea and Meyers are one and two 

I have serious doubts Murphy opts for one of them over Freddy. 

[Austin Tatious]

To me, as of now, Rea has earned a post season start.  The nice thing is we could have any starter on a short leash with the quality of the pen.  I think Montas is on the playoff roster too.  There’s still six weeks to see how the pitchers hold up and maybe somebody gets on a roll.  Civale’s last start was encouraging.   You can have an extra starter sitting in the pen to soak up innings if any game gets away too.  

[SoCalBrewfan]

Possibly they move the extra starters to the pen taking the place of BWilson and Joe Ross, who are valuable length options during the regular season but less likely to make a playoff roster. (Assuming Ross even lasts that long.) Neither Montas nor Civale have much experience relieving at the big league level, of course...

[Playing Catch]

After last night, I'm sure some of us are thinking about Montas getting a start. Before the Civale/Montas acquisitions, and the Tobias ROY chase, I'm sure most of us were thinking Freddy, maybe Rea, and then a whole lotta bullpenning. I'm feeling MUCH better. Even if ALL of those guys are only good through 3 or 4 in the playoffs, if they add Misiorowski and Yoho, who are both profiling as "shutdown multiple innings" guys, you've got enough innings to get to the backend without having to pitch Megill and Devin before their designated slots.

[StearnsFTW]

I have no idea how the bullpen is going to shake out.  The options they have are incredible.

To wit:

RHP

Whatever starter isn't starting (Civale?  Montas?)

Bukauskas

Herget

Mears

Megill

Paredes

Payamps

Peguero

Williams

Wilson

Misiorowski

Yoho

 

LHP:

Ashby

Hall

Hudson

Koenig

Milner

Zastryzny

 

Ridiculous.

 

That's 19 dudes.  And I probably forgot a couple.

[Playing Catch]

20 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

I have no idea how the bullpen is going to shake out.  The options they have are incredible.

To wit:

RHP

Whatever starter isn't starting (Civale?  Montas?)

Bukauskas

Herget

Mears

Megill

Paredes

Payamps

Peguero

Williams

Wilson

Misiorowski

Yoho

 

LHP:

Ashby

Hall

Hudson

Koenig

Milner

Zastryzny

 

Ridiculous.

 

That's 19 dudes.  And I probably forgot a couple.

It doesn't bother me, per se, but SHIFT+ENTER allows you to single-space your entries so you can make such lists...

RHP
Williams
Peguero
Etc.

LHP
Hudson
Koenig
Etc.

[long ball]

I'm been thinking about this a lot lately so I'll put pen to paper. I had to double check, but the 13 pitcher limit still applies to the post season roster. I lean toward rolling with 13 pitchers because our starters aren't likely to go deep and we dont have great position player depth.

 

C: Contreras, Sanchez, Haase

1b: Hoskins, Bauers

2b: turang

SS: Adames:

3b: Ortiz

Inf: Monasterio

OF: Chourio, Mitchell, Frelick, Perkins

Nothing really controversial here. I like Haase over Black because Sanchez is more useful as a PH/DH than a back up catcher once it gets to the post season. 

SP: Freddy, Rea, Myers

RP: Williams, Megill, Hudson, Payamps, Koenig I see these guys as locks

Hall, Misiorowski, Ashby, Parades, Montas. Truthfully not confident about this group as well. Could be a lot of mixing and matching depending on who is healthy come October. I'm hoping to see Yoho and Mis in September, but it will be tough to get them both on the active roster. I could see them making decisions to cut ties with Wilson and Ross midway through September to get all of Hall, Parades, Yoho, and Mis on the active roster. 

[brewfanmn]

The playoff pitching logjam is really interesting. My recommendations would generally adhere to the Fangraphs "depth charts" projections (which blend the two leading projection systems, ZiPS and Steamer)

SP (4)
Peralta (3.85) - Clearly still their top SP despite the inconsistency this year. Last couple starts have been interesting with better efficiency and ERA but decreased strikeouts. Not sure what to make of him right now but you have to run him out there as the top guy
Montas (4.21) - Longest track record of MLB success, and has been great since they traded for him.
Myers (4.41) - This is where things start to get interesting. Least experience, but most consistent performer since the beginning of June.
Rea (4.63) - Actually projects a little worse than Civale, but has been a much bigger part of the team and has pitched much better than Civale lately.

RP (9)
Locks (6)

• Williams (3.02)
• Megill (3.50)
• Hudson (3.82)
• Koenig (3.94)
• Payamps (3.95)
• Civale - Most teams like to carry a long man for blowouts and emergencies, and my guess is Civale has the leg up over Wilson and Ross for that role

Locks if healthy (2)

• Mears (3.49)
• Milner (3.64)
• Both have bad ERAs, but great peripherals which leads to their good projections. Milner has been a big part of the team and is a useful matchup guy to have in the playoffs

Wild cards (1-3 depending on health of Mears / Milner)

• Misiorowski (3.95), Ashby (4.06), Hall (4.08), Peguero (4.10), Yoho (doesn't even have a projection yet)
• Totally depends on who is throwing the best down the stretch, especially which one(s) get up to the big leagues and pitch well there. May only have room for one of them if Mears and Milner are healthy and still looking good, but any of these guys could have a big impact

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, brewfanmn said:

Yoho (doesn't even have a projection yet)

Yoho isn’t listed on the Depth Charts yet, but he does have a Steamer projection on his player page.

3.33 ERA is tied for 39th among relievers on the Rest of Season leaderboard.

3.39 FIP (37th) | 28.6 K% (35th) | .219 AVG (43rd) are some of his other ranks.

Hasn’t pitched an inning in MLB and already projects as more or less a Top 40 reliever in Steamer’s estimation.

[nate82]

I don’t believe Yoho or Misio will be on the playoff roster.  The Brewers would have to add both to the 40-man roster by Saturday or they will be ineligible.

I also don’t believe Myers will be a starter in the playoffs.  He will be in the bullpen.  He may also wind up in the bullpen in September due to innings.

I believe Civale or Montas will take the #3 spot over Myers.  

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I don’t believe Yoho or Misio will be on the playoff roster.  The Brewers would have to add both to the 40-man roster by Saturday or they will be ineligible.

I also don’t believe Myers will be a starter in the playoffs.  He will be in the bullpen.  He may also wind up in the bullpen in September due to innings.

I believe Civale or Montas will take the #3 spot over Myers.  

That rule is basically never enforced in real life as strict as the rule reads. 

 

[nate82]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

That rule is basically never enforced in real life as strict as the rule reads. 

 

MLB commissioner office needs to approve these additions and they are normally because of an injury.  Both Murphy and Luzardo replaced a player who were on the 60-day IL in 2019.  So it would be possible but not guaranteed the commissioner office could deny the Brewers.