Playoff Opponent Options

[nate82]

3 hours ago, owbc said:

You have to beat bad opponents. The Rays and White Sox had their chances against the White Sox as well and didn't take advantage.

The White Sox sucked so bad they couldn’t even beat themselves!

[StearnsFTW]

22 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

If it’s considered irrational to even think of the possibility that a team with an 8 game lead in mid August could blow the lead, it is really irrational to think that a team is going to blow a 4 game lead with 6 to play.

I’m sure the probability of the Brewers getting a bye at this point is significantly less than 5%.

 

 

 

According to FanGraphs, it's .4%.  Which seems about right.

 

[wiguy94]

The MLB seriously screwed up not having the Braves and Mets play a doubleheader today. As of now it looks like they are going to need to play a doubleheader on Monday in Atlanta to see who makes the playoffs.

 

[Outlander]

Good to see. Anything that can benefit the Brewers I am for. Pitch their top guys and their bullpen.

[shanedog19]

The Padres sure look like they may have the team to beat in the playoffs. Wouldn’t it be something if they passed the Dodgers and made them a wild card team?

[Stealofhome]

1 hour ago, shanedog19 said:

The Padres sure look like they may have the team to beat in the playoffs. Wouldn’t it be something if they passed the Dodgers and made them a wild card team?

Just reading through some of the quotes after their win last night really shows a team that is riding high right now.

Quote

In the aftermath, a champagne-soaked Machado was asked about beloved late owner Peter Seidler, who passed away last November. Machado was quick to say, “He’s been with us all year.” Then he added this …

“In a tough spot there with Ohtani in the on-deck circle, we turn a triple play to end the game, against one of the best teams in baseball?” Machado said. “I mean, he's looking upon us.”

Quote

“There’s more to be had than just a Wild Card spot,” said rookie phenom Jackson Merrill. “We’ve still got a chance at this [division title], and we’re going to give it everything we’ve got.”

Quote

“Surprised? With the group of guys we have? No,” Profar said. “It's a surprise if we didn't do it. Like last year. That's more of a surprise than what we did -- and what we're going to do -- this year.”

 

[shanedog19]

1 hour ago, Stealofhome said:

Just reading through some of the quotes after their win last night really shows a team that is riding high right now.

 

They don’t seem to have any glaring weaknesses on offense, defense or pitching. I would much prefer their offense over ours, and probably their pitching staff as well. I think they are going to be an extremely tough out in the postseason.

[Outlander]

The Dodgers have to balance the fine line of not allowing the Padres to catch them for the division while still allowing the Phillies the #1 seed so the Dodgers can avoid the Padres in their first series.

[wiguy94]

Interesting Braves development is they did not pitch Chris Sale today which means he probably threw a simulated game or something yesterday and they are saving him for Game 1 of the WC round. That's a seriously bold decision.

[Team Canada]

I read somewhere that if they have to use him, it'll be Monday, and then he'd just line up for G1 of the NLDS and could go 3 times. Obviously they'd have to get there.

They just know we're going to sweep the Mets. ;)

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

The current situation:

Looks like the Mets and DBacks will trail the Braves by one game heading into the final day of the regular season. DBacks are low-team out on tiebreakers in any scenario.

My thought is that I want either the Mets or Braves, hoping they have to play two competitive games Monday.

So, the scenario we DON'T want is for the DBacks to lose and the Mets and Braves to win. If that happens, they don't need to play on Monday. Any other result means they have to play at least one meaningful game on Monday.

The other scenario we don't want is for the DBacks and Braves to both win and the Mets to lose. That means the Mets will have to sweep a DHer to make the playoffs, in which case we'd get the Braves because that would give the Mets the 5 seed. Or, they'd fail to sweep, and we'd get the DBacks.

In other words, root for the Royals tomorrow to ensure meaningful games Monday.

Beyond that, two ways to look at it:

1) We want a three-way tie entering Monday. Three teams, two spots. This way, the Mets and Braves both HAVE to win at least one win game to both make it. A split gets them both in. Two losses, and you're out. You would think, under this scenario, Game 1 is full go for both teams. Game 2 is rest for one and full go for the other. We'd get the Mets in a split scenario, so we'd ideally want Atlanta to win game 1 and force the Mets to at least try to win the second. The risk here is either a) one team actually loses both games and we get the DBacks or b) both teams do some soft (or more overt) collusion to just get a split while maximizing rest.

2) We want the Braves to have clinched and the Mets to be even with the DBacks. This way, ATL would be resting, and the Mets would have to go all out to win at least one. Here, you probably don't get two super competitive games, but you at least guarantee that the Brewers most likely opponent has to play hard for nine innings. The downside is that, with the DH not meaning anything for the Braves, the stress on the Mets gets reduced. Or, they blow it, and we end up with the DBacks.

There are other permutations, but those are the best two for the Brewers. I think, right now, I'd lean toward scenario one. I'd like to enter Monday with the Mets only needing to win one game, but having to really go for it.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

The current situation:

Looks like the Mets and DBacks will trail the Braves by one game heading into the final day of the regular season. DBacks are low-team out on tiebreakers in any scenario.

My thought is that I want either the Mets or Braves, hoping they have to play two competitive games Monday.

So, the scenario we DON'T want is for the DBacks to lose and the Mets and Braves to win. If that happens, they don't need to play on Monday. Any other result means they have to play at least one meaningful game on Monday.

The other scenario we don't want is for the DBacks and Braves to both win and the Mets to lose. That means the Mets will have to sweep a DHer to make the playoffs, in which case we'd get the Braves because that would give the Mets the 5 seed. Or, they'd fail to sweep, and we'd get the DBacks.

In other words, root for the Royals tomorrow to ensure meaningful games Monday.

Beyond that, two ways to look at it:

1) We want a three-way tie entering Monday. Three teams, two spots. This way, the Mets and Braves both HAVE to win at least one win game to both make it. A split gets them both in. Two losses, and you're out. You would think, under this scenario, Game 1 is full go for both teams. Game 2 is rest for one and full go for the other. We'd get the Mets in a split scenario, so we'd ideally want Atlanta to win game 1 and force the Mets to at least try to win the second. The risk here is either a) one team actually loses both games and we get the DBacks or b) both teams do some soft (or more overt) collusion to just get a split while maximizing rest.

2) We want the Braves to have clinched and the Mets to be even with the DBacks. This way, ATL would be resting, and the Mets would have to go all out to win at least one. Here, you probably don't get two super competitive games, but you at least guarantee that the Brewers most likely opponent has to play hard for nine innings. The downside is that, with the DH not meaning anything for the Braves, the stress on the Mets gets reduced. Or, they blow it, and we end up with the DBacks.

There are other permutations, but those are the best two for the Brewers. I think, right now, I'd lean toward scenario one. I'd like to enter Monday with the Mets only needing to win one game, but having to really go for it.

My concern with scenario 2 is if all 3 teams win tomorrow and the Mets win game 1 of the DH and both teams have clinched the playoffs would they play the second game of the doubleheader even if both teams are tied? If no then by my understanding the Mets would have the tiebreaker and be the 5 seed. They would be 6-6 against each other and the Mets have the better divisional record which the tiebreaker would defer to.

In that scenario the Braves already clinched so they don’t won’t use any of their good pitchers. They would have Sale, Fried, Lopez lined up for the WC series which honestly seems like worst case scenario to me.

[young guns]

My understanding is they would play the games if it could effect seeding.  Potentially worst case scenario would be braves and Mets win and dbacks lose which would eliminate them.  In this scenario the Mets likely just don't try on Monday, lose game 1 and game 2 doesn't get played as all seeding is locked in at that point.  I don't see them trying for the sweep, wearing out their players, just for the chance to move up 1 seed.  Though we still face a Mets team we've dominated this year.

[bucks2281]

My guess is that if Arizona is eliminated Sunday, both the Mets and Braves will agree to cancel the DH and Manfred will concur. In this scenario, the 6 seed is more advantageous to both teams, as they avoid the Padres and Dodgers side of the bracket. No point in both teams burning their pitching staffs and subjecting themselves to a brutal travel turnaround just for seeding - especially when the best outcome for both teams is to lose both games.

[BrewerFan]

On 9/19/2024 at 12:27 PM, nate82 said:

Braves and the Padres are the two teams that I wouldn't want to face right now.  The Braves are looking like they are getting healthy again.  I don't really want to see that team in the playoffs.  The Padres are just as good as the Phillies and the Dodgers and in some ways better than them and a far worse match up for the Brewers.  I would rather play the Phillies or Dodgers than the Padres. 

The Mets are the obvious answer, but beyond that, the Braves will have to go through a couple of their top pitchers. I'm alright with facing them, but they are very talented...even with a "down" year from some of their studs. 

Mets and then D-Backs in the 1st rd would be fine. 

After that, just getting out of the playoff "drought" which we measure very differently than we used to, I see the Phillies having the most obvious horses in their rotation, they've got a balanced lineup. The Dodgers have a ton of talented arms to throw at you and 3 just incredible franchise players, but...short series... it's so unpredictable.

 

So I'd prefer the Padres over them next, but I don't really care. Weird things happen, it's about who's playing well, who's playing loose. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Montas, Civale, Ashby and Hall giving you 3-4 great innings stretches. I'm limiting Freddy to 4-5 innings and letting him know that going in. Let him empty the tank a bit early this post-season...I like our staff, chances and how we're playing as a team. 

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Any role that the Padres play in all this? Would it be advantageous for them to completely throw the game today against Arizona to ensure that doubleheader has to be played tomorrow? Afterall, they want a team forced to play on Monday and then fly cross country Monday tonight too

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

There are eight possible combinations of results today. Four are probably bad for us.

1) AZ L, ATL W, NYM W (Under this scenario, AZ is eliminated).

2) AZ W, ATL W, NYM L (Under this scenario, the Mets need to sweep a DH to qualify, and we'd be guaranteed to face either the Braves or the DBacks).

3) AZ L, ATL, L, NYM W (the Mets and Braves both clinch).

4) AZ W, ATL L, NYM L (Braves need one win in the DH. Mets need two. Both teams have to go all-out, but we get the DBacks no matter what--in other words, high-drama, but it doesn't help the Brewers ).

Two are probably less bad but still not great:

5) AZ W, ATL W, NYM W (the Braves clinch, and the Mets need one win in the DHer--we would probably hope the Braves win game 1 and the Mets win game 2, giving us the Mets).

6) AZ L, ATL L, NYM L (Braves clinch, Mets need one win, functionally identical to scenario 4).

The worry here is that if the Mets win game 1, they maybe don't play game 2, and we get the Braves who wouldn't have had to expend much energy.

Two are good:

7) AZ L, ATL W, NYM L (Braves clinch, go two games up on the Mets, Mets have to win one game of the DHer to qualify. Under this scenario, we get the Braves if the Mets sweep, but that would seem very unlikely given that they might scrap game 2 if the Mets win the first one. Doubt they'd go all out to avoid the Padres).

8) AZ W, ATL L, NYM W (Three-way tie going into Monday. Both games are necessary. We get the Mets in the case of a split, which be the most likely outcome, and at least one of the games would have to be real).

 

I would be pretty surprised if we were to play all out today, so we're probably AZ and Royals fans. But, if we win, we're probably Braves and Padres fans. The biggest shortcut for me: I'd like the Mets and DBacks to match results.

 

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

There are eight possible combinations of results today. Four are probably bad for us.

1) AZ L, ATL W, NYM W (Under this scenario, AZ is eliminated).

2) AZ W, ATL W, NYM L (Under this scenario, the Mets need to sweep a DH to qualify, and we'd be guaranteed to face either the Braves or the DBacks).

3) AZ L, ATL, L, NYM W (the Mets and Braves both clinch).

4) AZ W, ATL L, NYM L (Braves need one win in the DH. Mets need two. Both teams have to go all-out, but we get the DBacks no matter what--in other words, high-drama, but it doesn't help the Brewers ).

Two are probably less bad but still not great:

5) AZ W, ATL W, NYM W (the Braves clinch, and the Mets need one win in the DHer--we would probably hope the Braves win game 1 and the Mets win game 2, giving us the Mets).

6) AZ L, ATL L, NYM L (Braves clinch, Mets need one win, functionally identical to scenario 4).

The worry here is that if the Mets win game 1, they maybe don't play game 2, and we get the Braves who wouldn't have had to expend much energy.

Two are good:

7) AZ L, ATL W, NYM L (Braves clinch, go two games up on the Mets, Mets have to win one game of the DHer to qualify. Under this scenario, we get the Braves if the Mets sweep, but that would seem very unlikely given that they might scrap game 2 if the Mets win the first one. Doubt they'd go all out to avoid the Padres).

8) AZ W, ATL L, NYM W (Three-way tie going into Monday. Both games are necessary. We get the Mets in the case of a split, which be the most likely outcome, and at least one of the games would have to be real).

 

I would be pretty surprised if we were to play all out today, so we're probably AZ and Royals fans. But, if we win, we're probably Braves and Padres fans. The biggest shortcut for me: I'd like the Mets and DBacks to match results.

So yeah worst scenario is Braves clinch today and we still end up playing them as they wouldn’t be trying in the double header game tomorrow and would have Sale, Fried, Lopez lined up for the WC round 

[Brewcrew82]

The only scenario that I’d really like to avoid is one which results in us playing the Braves with Sale, Fried, and Lopez lined up against us. Otherwise, all other scenarios are fairly palatable. Despite last weekend and last year, I see no reason to fear the Dbacks as they’re struggling to defeat a San Diego team that is playing for nothing and resting guys right now after losing a series to the Giants.

[Brian]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-picture-and-bracket-2024

 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

17 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The only scenario that I’d really like to avoid is one which results in us playing the Braves with Sale, Fried, and Lopez lined up against us. Otherwise, all other scenarios are fairly palatable. Despite last weekend and last year, I see no reason to fear the Dbacks as they’re struggling to defeat a San Diego team that is playing for nothing and resting guys right now after losing a series to the Giants.

Yeah, you could definitely convince me of that. If you prefer the DBacks to the Braves, it may not be worth hoping the double-header materializes with stakes for both teams because that risks us getting ATL and their pitching staff, should they decide to sit Sale.

Honestly....I think it's very risky for ATL to be throwing Morton today. If you lose, you open the door to having to use him Monday, and then he's toast for the whole WC series. Plus, you may have to play two games that matter if you drop game 1 of that double-header. I think I'd probably still do it the way they're doing it, but, man, that's a move that definitely screams of newer age thinking (namely, that you'd take a higher probability of not making the playoffs over starting your best pitcher on the final day of the season to clinch your spot).

Fascinating game theory stuff going on in the NL today.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Yeah, you could definitely convince me of that. If you prefer the DBacks to the Braves, it may not be worth hoping the double-header materializes with stakes for both teams because that risks us getting ATL and their pitching staff, should they decide to sit Sale.

Honestly....I think it's very risky for ATL to be throwing Morton today. If you lose, you open the door to having to use him Monday, and then he's toast for the whole WC series. Plus, you may have to play two games that matter if you drop game 1 of that double-header. I think I'd probably still do it the way they're doing it, but, man, that's a move that definitely screams of newer age thinking (namely, that you'd take a higher probability of not making the playoffs over starting your best pitcher on the final day of the season to clinch your spot).

Fascinating game theory stuff going on in the NL today.

The only way Sale will pitch tomorrow is if the Braves making the playoffs comes down to the 2nd game of the doubleheader. They have Schwellenbach to pitch game 1 of the doubleheader if they need to win.

[wibadgers23]

Just need the Braves to lose today...I think that pretty much guarantees the doubleheader happens tomorrow.  I  think the Mets and Dbacks both win today.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

4 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Just need the Braves to lose today...I think that pretty much guarantees the doubleheader happens tomorrow.  I  think the Mets and Dbacks both win today.

That's highly unlikely though. The Braves have something to play for while their opponent KC would send themselves to Baltimore with a win while a loss assures them they'll play Houston. Seems like a clear incentive for KC to lose to Atlanta today

[wibadgers23]

11 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

That's highly unlikely though. The Braves have something to play for while their opponent KC would send themselves to Baltimore with a win while a loss assures them they'll play Houston. Seems like a clear incentive for KC to lose to Atlanta today

Good point.  Seems like #5 in your list of scenarios is the likeliest which as you pointed out, is not the best but not the worst outcome.