2024-25 Misc Offseason News

[sveumrules]

6 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

One of the best pitchers in the minor leagues? Be serious. Smith wasn’t even the best in his own organization last year. He’s not even in the White Sox’s Top 25 prospects, and he’s a swing man/reliever. One of the best pitchers in the minor leagues, ha!
 

Your anecdotal evidence about Erceg also omits he was a position player (3B) in the Brewers organization for YEARS before turning to pitching. Plus,  Erceg was never on the 40 man roster and was Rule 5 eligible in 2021 and 2022 and went unselected. It’s a straw man argument and not a particularly good one 

Yes, one of the best pitchers in the minor leagues. Among 441 pitchers with at least 150 IP over the last two years…

2.86 xFIP (2nd) | 24.3 K-BB% (3rd) | 32.4 K% (4th) | 1.01 WHIP (5th) | 3.03 FIP (5th) | 2.63 ERA (7th) | .193 AVG (12th)

If Shane put up those numbers as a highly drafted player at age appropriate levels he’d be a top prospect in all of baseball, but since he did it as an older undrafted FA he’ll have to settle for #1 pick in the R5 as far as accolades go.

Of course there were mitigating factors as to why Erceg only threw 147 innings after high school and before MLB, just like there have been mitigating factors for Smith doing the same.

The reason Lucas didn’t get popped in the R5 is because his minor league results were nowhere near as impressive…

4.52 xFIP | 8.5 K-BB% | 23.1 K% | 1.59 WHIP | 5.01 FIP | 5.07 ERA | .245 AVG

[Jopal78]

8 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Yes, one of the best pitchers in the minor leagues. Among 441 pitchers with at least 150 IP over the last two years…

2.86 xFIP (2nd) | 24.3 K-BB% (3rd) | 32.4 K% (4th) | 1.01 WHIP (5th) | 3.03 FIP (5th) | 2.63 ERA (7th) | .193 AVG (12th)

If Shane put up those numbers as a highly drafted player at age appropriate levels he’d be a top prospect in all of baseball, but since he did it as an older undrafted FA he’ll have to settle for #1 pick in the R5 as far as accolades go.

Of course there were mitigating factors as to why Erceg only threw 147 innings after high school and before MLB, just like there have been mitigating factors for Smith doing the same.

The reason Lucas didn’t get popped in the R5 is because his minor league results were nowhere near as impressive…

4.52 xFIP | 8.5 K-BB% | 23.1 K% | 1.59 WHIP | 5.01 FIP | 5.07 ERA | .245 AVG

I don’t much care what a player’s metrics are. The data can be filtered to support any argument one wishes to make. 

You leave out Smith is a reliever/swingman. If he was a bonus baby as you suggest and pitched as a swingman/reliever in the minors, he’d already be considered a disappointment not the #1 prospect. Sheesh. 

There’s a reason the Brewers didn’t add him to the 40 man roster. He’s got arm talent but he’s too inexperienced to predict where he winds up in the future, and 40 man spots in Milwaukee are at a premium.  Equally important  there’s a significant chance he is returned to the Brewers organization anyways.

For the 2024 season, 11 pitchers were taken in the Rule 5 draft and 7 were returned to their original organization. For the 2023 season 13 pitchers were selected in the Rule 5 draft and 9 were returned.  Over the last two years the odds of any random Rule 5 pitcher sticking in the big leagues are about 33%.
 

[CheeseheadInQC]

52 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I don’t much care what a player’s metrics are. The data can be filtered to support any argument one wishes to make. 

You leave out Smith is a reliever/swingman. If he was a bonus baby as you suggest and pitched as a swingman/reliever in the minors, he’d already be considered a disappointment not the #1 prospect. Sheesh. 

There’s a reason the Brewers didn’t add him to the 40 man roster. He’s got arm talent but he’s too inexperienced to predict where he winds up in the future, and 40 man spots in Milwaukee are at a premium.  Equally important  there’s a significant chance he is returned to the Brewers organization anyways.

For the 2024 season, 11 pitchers were taken in the Rule 5 draft and 7 were returned to their original organization. For the 2023 season 13 pitchers were selected in the Rule 5 draft and 9 were returned.  Over the last two years the odds of any random Rule 5 pitcher sticking in the big leagues are about 33%.
 

Are you sure you are right about the seasons you are citing? The Rule 5 draft in the 2023-2024 offseason had 10 total players selected and five of the eight pitchers stuck (and two of the ones who didn’t had injury problems).

[TURBO]

4 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Equally important  there’s a significant chance he is returned to the Brewers organization anyways.

 

Highly doubtful in Smith's case.

I'd take that bet too.

Look, I realize you want to be right in this case, but you aren't.  Smith is a really good pitcher that we made a mistake about.  It's ok to admit that everything we do doesn't work out.

When he was left unprotected, there were a lot of people on this very board that were not happy, and there is a reason for that.

[HarryDoyle]

22 hours ago, markedman5 said:

TJ for Cole

 

It's official now. Guess we won't be seeing him Opening Day.

[liveforoctober]

I wonder what the Yankees would give us for Cortes? (Blue)

[TURBO]

45 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

I wonder what the Yankees would give us for Cortes? (Blue)

I wonder about Peralta to be honest...

[Jopal78]

5 hours ago, TURBO said:

Highly doubtful in Smith's case.

I'd take that bet too.

Look, I realize you want to be right in this case, but you aren't.  Smith is a really good pitcher that we made a mistake about.  It's ok to admit that everything we do doesn't work out.

When he was left unprotected, there were a lot of people on this very board that were not happy, and there is a reason for that.

Mistake about what? Protecting a  25 year old relief pitcher who’s never played in the majors? I’ve always conceded the fact Smith could make it, but the indisputable reality is the probabilities of him doing so aren’t great.

Next, people can throw out metrics all they want, but reality is if Smith was anything why haven’t the pundits who write for a living acknowledged it? On MLB Pipeline Smith is not ranked as one of the Sox’s Top 25 prospects, Keith Law doesn’t have him amongst his Top 20 on the Sox, yet more than one poster here has clamored that Smith  is one of the best pitchers in the  minor leagues. Somebody has to be wrong….. .
 

As for Milwaukee they’ve got relievers coming out their ears. It’s simply not a spot they’re going to invest an extra 40 man roster spot right now, especially when there’s fair odds Smith gets returned to them anyhow before the end of 2025.

[brewerfan82]

15 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

On MLB Pipeline Smith is not ranked as one of the Sox’s Top 25 prospects, Keith Law doesn’t have him amongst his Top 20 on the Sox, yet more than one poster here has clamored that Smith  is one of the best pitchers in the  minor leagues. Somebody has to be wrong….. .

Even if you don't think he's a highly regarded prospect, it's hard to argue that he hasn't statistically been one of the best pitchers in the minors for two years. That said, two years isn't a long time. So yes, it is possible for him to both not be in those top 25 lists, while at the same time have performed as one of the best pitchers in the minors for two years.

I don't know if the Brewers made a mistake or not with him yet, but there are reasons why he's not ranked higher and the Brewers didn't protect him (short sustained success and limited room in a stacked, competitive Brewers' system) and also reasons the White Sox took him with the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft (he literally has been one of the best pitchers in the minors for two years now and their team is in a position to absorb him at the major league level).

Any additional arguing about him "being one of the best pitchers in the minors" feels more like semantics at this point ("has been statistically" vs. "is").

[mudbutt]

I’d much rather have Shane Smith over Grant Wolfram, who they signed to a MLB deal despite never playing in the MLB and is 28.  Now maybe they thought they could have both and miscalculated on Smith getting picked.  Either way I’ll take Smiths future over Grants. 

[BallFour]

I remember being mad when the Padres plucked Miguel Diaz from the Brewers in 2017. After that experience I think it would be really hard for me to get upset about losing someone through the Rule-5 Draft. 

I like Shane Smith as a reliever. I was mildly surprised we didn't protect him. But if there is one thing I am confident in with the Brewers it is their ability to evaluate and get above and beyond results from relievers. Happy for Shane though seems like he has an extra gear on his stuff to start Spring.

[sveumrules]

Looks like Craig Counsell got Dave Roberts an extra 100K annually on his new deal. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

17 hours ago, TURBO said:

Highly doubtful in Smith's case.

I'd take that bet too.

Look, I realize you want to be right in this case, but you aren't.  Smith is a really good pitcher that we made a mistake about.  It's ok to admit that everything we do doesn't work out.

When he was left unprotected, there were a lot of people on this very board that were not happy, and there is a reason for that.

I am certainly not a fan of giving up good arms for nothing, but it truly remains to be seen whether this was a mistake. I remember many upset when the Brewers gave up on Phil Bickford, who went on to have some short-lived success with the Dodgers before flaming out. 

Middling relief arms are expendable. That's just how it is. And chances are, unless the Brewers REALLY missed on Smith, his ceiling is as a middling relief arm.

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Middling relief arms are expendable. That's just how it is. And chances are, unless the Brewers REALLY missed on Smith, his ceiling is as a middling relief arm.

This might be true if Smith were going to a regular old run of the mill bad team, but he’s not.

Last year’s White Sox bullpen put up -11.22 Win Probability Added, the Nationals had the 2nd worst bullpen in 2024 at -2.68 WPA.

There have been 30 teams in MLB since 1998, so that’s 780 team bullpen full seasons. Only the 1999 Royals (-10.94 WPA) and 2021 Nats (-9.89 WPA) gave the White Sox a run for their money.

White Sox rotation managed 7.2 rWAR (24th) last year, but 6.7 of that came from Crochet and Fedde who are gone. Venable said they are considering Smith as a potential rotation option…

“I think we’ll continue to build him up as a starter, knowing he can be a versatile piece for us,” Venable said. “I think we owe it to him, and his ability, to stretch him out and look at him as a starter here.”

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

10 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

This might be true if Smith were going to a regular old run of the mill bad team, but he’s not.

Last year’s White Sox bullpen put up -11.22 Win Probability Added, the Nationals had the 2nd worst bullpen in 2024 at -2.68 WPA.

There have been 30 teams in MLB since 1998, so that’s 780 team bullpen full seasons. Only the 1999 Royals (-10.94 WPA) and 2021 Nats (-9.89 WPA) gave the White Sox a run for their money.

White Sox rotation managed 7.2 rWAR (24th) last year, but 6.7 of that came from Crochet and Fedde who are gone. Venable said they are considering Smith as a potential rotation option…

“I think we’ll continue to build him up as a starter, knowing he can be a versatile piece for us,” Venable said. “I think we owe it to him, and his ability, to stretch him out and look at him as a starter here.”

I'd be very surprised to see him succeed as a starter. Simply because that conversion from reliever to starter is so rare. But stranger things have certainly happened.

[brewerfan82]

3 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I'd be very surprised to see him succeed as a starter. Simply because that conversion from reliever to starter is so rare. But stranger things have certainly happened.

He started 16 games last year (albeit only averaging 4.1 IP) with pretty good results:

[sveumrules]

4 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I'd be very surprised to see him succeed as a starter. Simply because that conversion from reliever to starter is so rare. But stranger things have certainly happened.

Smith averaged over three innings per appearance and had eleven outings between four and six IP last year.

Only six times did he throw one inning or less. 

Even coming off injury, his 154 IP were 14th among all Brewers farmhands the last two years.

He’s been gradually building up for two years now post-TJ, this isn’t somebody whose been groomed as a one inning reliever.

[markedman5]

No need to push it Bobby……take the first week of the season off and then come back strong 

 

[HarryDoyle]

The Rays have decided not to move forward with plans for a new stadium. Looks like the team's days in Tampa are numbered.

[Playing Catch]

17 hours ago, HarryDoyle said:

The Rays have decided not to move forward with plans for a new stadium. Looks like the team's days in Tampa are numbered.

Yeah, that situation is crazy to me. I'm not sure MLB has helped the situation by leaking that they want Sternberg to sell the team, and they want the team to stay in St. Pete. The St. Pete mayor yesterday said they won't negotiate with the Rays current ownership group, and that "that bridge is burned."

If I were Sternberg, why would I sell a team without a stadium deal? That would be lunacy. From context, it sounds as if he is to blame for the new stadium deal disintegrating, but I don't know what MLB's game is here.

I presume, they want to corner Sternberg and the Rays to St. Pete, so that future expansion team locations aren't eaten up by an existing team (thus eliminating a bidding city from buying a team for billions).

[Fear The Chorizo]

On 3/10/2025 at 6:14 PM, HarryDoyle said:

It's official now. Guess we won't be seeing him Opening Day.

Cole basically could only give the Yankees a half season last year, too.  Wasn't there some strangeness with his existing contract "opt out" only for the Yankees to basically keep him on his existing deal last November that included a hesitancy to give him an extension (and also a hesitancy by a Boras client to jump into free agency whenever he could)?  And now he shows up to spring training with a bum elbow that needs surgery - 

 

must be nice to throw upper 90's whenever you're not rehabbing from surgery and get paid $30+ million for something a guy 10 years younger than you can give a team for 95% less cost on the field.

[endaround]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

Yeah, that situation is crazy to me. I'm not sure MLB has helped the situation by leaking that they want Sternberg to sell the team, and they want the team to stay in St. Pete. The St. Pete mayor yesterday said they won't negotiate with the Rays current ownership group, and that "that bridge is burned."

If I were Sternberg, why would I sell a team without a stadium deal? That would be lunacy. From context, it sounds as if he is to blame for the new stadium deal disintegrating, but I don't know what MLB's game is here.

I presume, they want to corner Sternberg and the Rays to St. Pete, so that future expansion team locations aren't eaten up by an existing team (thus eliminating a bidding city from buying a team for billions).

There was a stadium deal, Sternberg couldn't(wouldn't?) get his financing in order for the $700 million he agreed to cover.

MLB might be trying to avoid another A's situation with a MLB team barnstorming different AAA venues.

[Playing Catch]

18 minutes ago, endaround said:

There was a stadium deal, Sternberg couldn't(wouldn't?) get his financing in order for the $700 million he agreed to cover.

MLB might be trying to avoid another A's situation with a MLB team barnstorming different AAA venues.

Yeah, my interpretation was that things were going smoothly until the hurricane damage to the Trop, and at that point, things got messy; Sternberg began to consider a new course, which frustrated the other parties (St. Pete officials/MLB officials).

I think MLB needs to deal with the revenue disparities if they are going to strongarm owners into NOT moving their team to a more lucrative situation. At the same time, MLB doesn't want to subsidize owners that aren't even TRYING to make their city's situation viable.

If MLB is committed to the Tampa Bay market, their best course of action may be to allow Sternberg to move to another market, and commit an expansion team to the Tampa Bay market.

[sveumrules]

34 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

must be nice to throw upper 90's whenever you're not rehabbing from surgery and get paid $30+ million for something a guy 10 years younger than you can give a team for 95% less cost on the field.

Cole has 19.6 rWAR (4th) and 17.2 fWAR (6th) since joining the Yankees.

That’s 3.9 rWAR | 3.4 fWAR per 150 IP.

The only pitchers ten years younger than Cole to hit those numbers last year were Skenes (5.7 rWAR | 4.3 fWAR in 133 IP) and Hunter Greene (5.5 rWAR | 3.8 fWAR in 150 IP).

Bryan Woo (3.2 rWAR | 2.3 fWAR in 121 IP) and Spencer Scheellenbach (3.0 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR in 123 IP) were close, but didn’t quite get there.

[markedman5]