Too Many Starting Pitchers: Which Of Nestor Cortes & Aaron Civale Should The Brewers Trade?

[Jason Wang]

Surprisingly, Milwaukee now has an excess of manpower in the rotation. What will they do with the excess resources?

It finally happened. The Brewers’ most valuable trade asset, Devin Williams, was finally sent to new digs. In return, the Yankees gave up $2 million, including infield prospect Caleb Durbin and Nestor Cortes. With Nestor’s arrival, Milwaukee has too many starting pitchers to go around, so who will they get rid of to clear up roster space and payroll?

It’s natural to assume that Milwaukee is simply a temporary landing spot for Cortes and that he probably shouldn’t be considering putting money down for a condo in Historic Third Ward. However, the situation may not be that simple. When healthy, he has proven himself to be a good starter option; his career peaked in 2021-2022, where he posted a 2.61 ERA over a combined 251 ⅓ innings for the Yankees. After struggling in 2023 and sustaining a rotator cuff strain, he pitched to a 3.77 ERA over 174 ⅓ innings in 2024, suggesting a return to form. Unfortunately, some flaws he showed while pitching through injury persisted last season.

Aside from a walk rate of 5.5%, his other statistics were around or below the league average. Most concerning was his tendency to give up hard contact to opposing hitters. His sweeper and four-seam fastball were the biggest pain points, which had respective slugging percentages of .511 and .443. Aside from a slight dip in changeup frequency, there haven’t been too many changes to his velocity, arm angle, or usage between his 2022 and 2024 campaigns. Hence, these results may be affected by lingering injuries. This is further supported by the fact that he missed almost all of the Yankees’ most recent postseason run due to a left elbow flexor strain. 

On the bright side, he did manage to recover in time for the World Series, and it seems that Milwaukee did its due diligence to ensure that he would have a clean bill of health before being included in the trade. He reportedly had an MRI a few weeks ago, which allowed him to begin his offseason throwing program on time.

This means that the Brewers are likely intent on keeping him. After all, why bother with a thorough physical exam unless the team wants to know exactly what they’re working with and whether their reputed pitching development program will get the best out of his arm. It's even more important when considering they may only have him for a short period, given that he’s entering his final year of arbitration and is slated to hit free agency in 2026.

On a similar timeline is Aaron Civale who will become a free agent in the same year as Cortes. Civale had a great showing with the Brewers, making 14 starts and posting a 3.53 ERA, a major step forward following a disappointing tenure with the Rays. While his surface-level numbers were strong, underlying figures may be more concerning. His FIP of 4.79 while with the Brewers was evidence of his susceptibility to the long ball while having a below-average strikeout rate of just 20.9%. Furthermore, a WHIP of 1.22 shows that he’s giving up a few more baserunners than the team would probably like. In comparison, Nestor’s FIP of 3.84 was not only better than Civale’s, it was much closer to his actual ERA. 

Civale made great use of his cutter in 2024 but struggled to deploy an effective pitch outside of it. His sinker and curveball complemented his cutter well in past years but they lacked the same production last season. A quick glance shows that his curveball command regressed while his sinker lacked both the velocity and movement needed to get the necessary outs. 

With the return of great talent like Brandon Woodruff and DL Hall, trading one of these two options seems like a necessary step to optimize the roster heading into 2025. Nestor seems like he has more upside while the team knows what they’re getting (or not getting) out of Civale. Given the prerequisites around the Nestor transaction, it seems like he’s here to stay (at least for a year) while Civale will be shown the door in exchange for some prospect talent. Any suitors looking for a back-of-the-rotation arm could make great use of him and he’d likely benefit them more than he’d benefit Milwaukee. He played an important role while he was with the team but with the talent ahead of him in the depth chart, it's difficult to see a clear road ahead for him.

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[Sugarrayray]

I know they’re operating on a really tight budget but I actually think they will be keeping them both going into the season.

I doubt the Brewers brass is counting on Woodruff for any serious innings in their pre-year formulations. Hoping yes, planning on it yes, counting on it, no. Ashby has been terrible as a starter his entire big league career and dominant as a multi inning reliever. DL Hall has yet to prove he can be relied upon in his entire pro career, although he did look very good at the end of last season. Known quantities like Cortes the killer and Civale are probably much wanted and appreciated after using a record number starting pitchers last year.

[biedergb]

Agree. The quantity of starters is high, and several in the minors too.

But, unless this is a “soft” retool year which this trade argues against, then they need the quality.

Last year it was Peralta, Rea and Myers (and Gasser for a few starts) who covered the quality innings until Civale arrived. But with Rea gone, Myers no longer a rookie and unknown entity where regression can occur, Gasser in the shelf. That leaves Hall (ineffective as a starter last year). Woodruff (coming back from serious injury) as the other MLB starters. Sure Miz, Henderson or Patrick could be a quality starter, or Ashby or another arm could cover starts.  But by keeping Peralta, Cortes and Civale at the top of the rotation you have some quality innings on a consistent basis.

Civale or Cortes are sure fire candidates for a trade deadline deal if this is in fact a down year (and boy it’s hard to always stay competitive with losing quality like Hader, Burnes, Adames and D Williams in a 2.5 year span). If not one or the other pitch their way to being a QO’d free agent and another early round pick.

So in some sense I guess I agree with @Jason Wangthat a starter could be traded but disagree it will be this offseason - and expect next trade deadline if it happens.

[long ball]

We’ve seen the Brewers use a 6 man rotation with some frequency in recent seasons. With Woodruff coming back from a serious injury and DL Hall never putting up a starters workload before, I suspect the Brewers will use a 6 man rotation at times again this season. The depth behind the top 6 guys is basically Ashby plus a bunch of guys who have never pitched in the majors. I don’t think they should or need to trade a starter. 

[wallus]

I disagree with the premise and think we could use another starter.

[brewmann04]

keep them and see what the team is at the deadline

[Jason Wang]

8 hours ago, biedergb said:

Agree. The quantity of starters is high, and several in the minors too.

But, unless this is a “soft” retool year which this trade argues against, then they need the quality.

Last year it was Peralta, Rea and Myers (and Gasser for a few starts) who covered the quality innings until Civale arrived. But with Rea gone, Myers no longer a rookie and unknown entity where regression can occur, Gasser in the shelf. That leaves Hall (ineffective as a starter last year). Woodruff (coming back from serious injury) as the other MLB starters. Sure Miz, Henderson or Patrick could be a quality starter, or Ashby or another arm could cover starts.  But by keeping Peralta, Cortes and Civale at the top of the rotation you have some quality innings on a consistent basis.

Civale or Cortes are sure fire candidates for a trade deadline deal if this is in fact a down year (and boy it’s hard to always stay competitive with losing quality like Hader, Burnes, Adames and D Williams in a 2.5 year span). If not one or the other pitch their way to being a QO’d free agent and another early round pick.

So in some sense I guess I agree with @Jason Wangthat a starter could be traded but disagree it will be this offseason - and expect next trade deadline if it happens.

Good shouts!

[Soupy]

Would Civale for Casas work 

[Soupy]

No

i didn’t realize he had that many years of control left. 
Not to mention the Hoskins issue

[BrewersRice]

I guess I’m more of the tilt to adding another starter. I see Freddie, Civale, Cortes, Myers to start off the year. Woodruff will likely need more innings under his belt after surgery. Hall stunk as a starter. I think they still view Ashby as a starter, but would like to start him in the bullpen. So I think Hall and Ashby are going to start the year in the bullpen. I think they are looking for a cheap 5th starter lefty- maybe that is their style 5 draft pick.
 

I was hoping they would get a couple million in international free agency money instead of just money from Yanks. I do think they still trade out of some of their bullpen talent and outfield depth for hopefully higher end pitching prospects and SS AAA prospects in case of injury.  (Dodgers, Angels, Rangers have several pitching prospects that could be nice)

[Team Canada]

7 hours ago, wallus said:

I disagree with the premise and think we could use another starter.

Yeah, I'm going to need like 9 starters before I say we have too many starters.

[MNBrew]

"Too many starters" is based on a lot of assumptions -- among them: perfect health, no missed turns, and a couple guys coming back from injuries -- and since the FO's goal is clearly to improve our rotation and overall SP depth, there's zero reason to consider moving any of them right now, especially the reasonably proven, veteran arms of Cortes & Civale.

[Jason Wang]

1 hour ago, Team Canada said:

Yeah, I'm going to need like 9 starters before I say we have too many starters.

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[Terry]

I get that Ashby as a starter back in 2022 is sometimes frustratng, but saying that he's terrible is a stretch. I'm all board on the starter experiment if he's healthy.

[SF70]

I don’t see the team retaining Civale and his $8M salary. 

I think the team believes 1 of Ashby-Hall will rotation and will want to preserve shuttle flexibility for Patrick-CRod-Hunt-Henderson.

1. Peralta 2. Myers 3. Cortes 4. Woodruff 5. Ashby/Hall 6. Patrick 7. CRod 8. Hunt 9. Henderson 10. Duplantier 11. Ashby/Hall 12. Minor-league signing. 13. Misiorowski

 

[biedergb]

3 hours ago, Terry said:

I get that Ashby as a starter back in 2022 is sometimes frustratng, but saying that he's terrible is a stretch. I'm all board on the starter experiment if he's healthy.

He was mostly bad all last year as a starter. I know he had a start or two in the bigs, but in Nashville he had a few nice starts, but had issues with control/command and had big innings that limited any effectiveness as a starter. Once he went to the bullpen he went from a DFA candidate to a 40 man roster pitcher. I don't see him as a starter at this time point based upon both his injury history and the results of last season, in addition to the fact he wasn't great as a starter prior to the injury. I would love to be wrong, but counting on him or DL Hall to be starters when both look like solid bullpen arms is not the best if you are trying to truly compete. If this is a retool type of year - go with what you have and see if you get lucky - then yes stretch them out and see what happens. If this is a year they want to try to go for a 3rd consecutive division title, then can't expect him to be a starter.

 

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

1. Peralta 2. Myers 3. Cortes 4. Woodruff 5. Ashby/Hall 6. Patrick 7. CRod 8. Hunt 9. Henderson 10. Duplantier 11. Ashby/Hall 12. Minor-league signing. 13. Misiorowski

Like above, with Peralta and Cortes yes you have 2 MLB starters. Woodruff is coming off major injury. Myers had an amazing season, but I am not ready to anoint him as a top/middle of the rotation piece quite yet. The rest are young and/or limited as starters. The Brewers have been excellent at running out less experienced arms in the past and found ways to make them work (Jason Alexander for example; or how we had a near Cy Young two half seasons from Eric Lauer), but having 3-4 pitchers you can count on consistent, reliable innings is so important to not tax the bullpen. Plus pitchers can get injured, and we need starters to be insurance in case of those things.

[SF70]

With Cortes-Woodruff the ‘25 rotation has more solid starter options than they had going into last year, a year they went thru a record-breaking number of starters and still pitched well.

They have SP depth at Nashville they just didn’t have last season as well.

[Terry]

52 minutes ago, biedergb said:

I don't see him as a starter at this time point based upon both his injury history and the results of last season, in addition to the fact he wasn't great as a starter prior to the injury.

So...a starter with a 4.06FIP and 3.72xERA is bad nowadays I see. There's absolutely no reason not to try stretching him out at spring training if he's fully healthy. He already showcased his ability to produce whiffs and groundballs and that his ceiling is probably the same as Peralta's, If we're seriously considering going deep in the playoffs, we're gonna have to give him a chance and hope it works.

Edit:
And I don't think the team had ever considered him as a DFA candidate. Yes he had command issue, but this year's early-on disatrous control issue mainly stem from his arm angle change that he's not accustomed to initially after the injury. Not because of the role he's in. 

[jay87shot]

I would only trade Civale/Cortes for a really sweet deal at this point. I really like a rotation of Peralta, Woody, Civale, Cortes, Myers with Ashby, Hall, Misi, Patrick, Henderson, and Patrick making crazy good depth. There might not be an ace there but all of those guys can be solid #3 with upside to be #2 starters if firing on all gears. My guess is that 1 of Woody, Cortes, Civale are really good and surefire QO options, 1 is solid and an iffy QO candidate (possible trade candidate for good offer) and 1 isn't great (or injuries) and would be an easy trade candidate (if not hurt). Between the 6 non rotation guys I would guess a couple have really good years and take over a rotation spot and the swing man spot.

[biedergb]

2 hours ago, Terry said:

And I don't think the team had ever considered him as a DFA candidate.

I will admit I have no idea what the team was thinking, but there was some discussion amongst folks here that he could be a DFA candidate given his incredibly poor results last season. 

 

2 hours ago, Terry said:

So...a starter with a 4.06FIP and 3.72xERA is bad nowadays I see.

That was his line from 2022, and his ERA 4.81 as a starter and WHIP 1.45 as a starter, and his FIP was 4.52 not too bad I agree, but far from a great track record, so that was part of the thinking - he was OK/decent as a starter, then got hurt, and was awful as a starter last year.

Last season in the minors outside of his 5/25 - 6/5 run of three quality starts at AAA, was a disaster. His season was salvaged by his move to the bullpen in August, where he thrived as 1-2 IP reliever.

I stated I would love to be wrong about him, but it got to the point where I would not even watch his starts in July because he would just blow up - his 63 walks and 73 hits in 65.2 IP as a starter in AAA. That is not good no matter how you cut it. Not sure what it was - maybe focusing on just an inning or two, and allowing to max out on his pitches as a reliever clicked for him. But nothing there screams - we have a solid #4 or #5 starter for this season if we want to compete.

[Terry]

1 hour ago, biedergb said:

I stated I would love to be wrong about him, but it got to the point where I would not even watch his starts in July because he would just blow up - his 63 walks and 73 hits in 65.2 IP as a starter in AAA. That is not good no matter how you cut it. Not sure what it was - maybe focusing on just an inning or two, and allowing to max out on his pitches as a reliever clicked for him. But nothing there screams - we have a solid #4 or #5 starter for this season if we want to compete

His advanced numbers back in 2022 as a starter was .306xwoba, 0.374xSLG, 0.366xwobacon, which is actually quite similar to the numbers Peralta posted this year(also similarly had homerun issue which inflated Ashby's FIP), whom I assumed you wouldn't call a no. 4 or 5 starter. His release point was a lot different from the past, even varied between games this season, meaning he's likely searching for what best suits him to begin the season. That early control issue is certainly not a norm. If he can get his BB/9 under 4.0 (not an easy task I know), he get the ingredient of at least being a no.3 starter.

[brewmann04]

Wait till you see who else step in but the deadline might be busy

[biedergb]

OK. I suck at the advanced metrics, and know enough to get me in trouble. So I will agree with what you have there, as I don't know enough to have a good discussion about it. And will agree he did have good stretches in 2022.

19 minutes ago, Terry said:

If he can get his BB/9 under 4.0 (not an easy task I know), he get the ingredient of at least being a no.3 starter.

This I agree with which is why I say I would love to be wrong. But his control issues are not new, and were downright awful last year.  Having watched about 10 of his starts at AAA (give or take), outside of that 3 start span where he still struggled with command, I am not sure anyone would walk away feeling confident about his future, which is why some of us (at least 1 or 2 posters also mentioned it) postulated that we thought he *could* be a DFA candidate because no team would stash him on the 40 man roster with his poor results and take on guaranteed salary (and I didn't explain the DFA comment earlier, it was in the context of opening up a 40 man roster, and that few teams would risk that claim). But his change as a reliever was so great to watch, that is became must see video when he entered the game.

But I don't think at this time point I would rely on a lot of IFs to pencil him in as a possible starter now. I like Ashby a lot and hope he becomes a #3 starter, that would be awesome, but he looked nowhere near that last year, and he had a magical August/September, but I'm not ready to assume he can be a reliable starter, and his value as a long reliever and late inning reliever may be good for a team that's competing. If they were out of contention then yeah see what Miz, Ashby, Hall, Henderson can do, but expecting them to fill out the starting rotation, or assuming Woodruff is health, or assuming no regression for a guy like Myers is just so many question marks, even for an organization so good at pitching development.

Bottom line - I agree he has the stuff, the potential, and has shown in flashes that he can be good. But with injury, inconsistencies, and only a 1-2 month resurgences (as a reliever) I put Aaron as a big question mark for 2025 right now. I want the stuff/potential to come together, but his command (lack thereof for most of last year and even higher BB rates prior) will be one of the keys for his success if he can overcome, which may not be an easy thing to do.

[Sixtolezcano]

1. Keep them both and not pretend that Woodward is a sure thing.

2. Package them together in a trade for a superior starter.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I kind of assumed the whole point of this trade was they only want to count on Woody, Ashby and Hall to fill one starting spot between them and not two.