What to do with Tyler Black

[wntrtxn21]

26 minutes ago, Lathund said:

What to do with Tyler Black is simply to let him play. Seems like they don't believe in him as a 3B, though that'd be ideal if he could handle it. So Black should get most of the PAs at 1B vs RHP, with Hoskins playing mostly against LHP, with his quite severe platoon splits. 

Between 1B, DH, some corner OF there should be a decent amount of PAs. 

I don't see any way Hoskins plays mostly against LHP, not for $18M. With Yelich getting the huge majority of the DH opportunities and Contreras getting 35-40, it's hard to see where Black gets many PAs unless they trade one of the OFs or there's injuries. 

[Lathund]

35 minutes ago, wntrtxn21 said:

I don't see any way Hoskins plays mostly against LHP, not for $18M. With Yelich getting the huge majority of the DH opportunities and Contreras getting 35-40, it's hard to see where Black gets many PAs unless they trade one of the OFs or there's injuries. 

The money is spent no matter what, should do what gives the best results. Hoskins is significantly better against LHP than RHP, both in 2024 and for his career. They won't use him in a strict platoon, but even something like every start against LHP and half the starts against RHP is ~2/3 of the games, leaving 50+ 1B starts to someone else. Consider that Hoskins would also at least sometimes DH too. Not talking about Black getting 600+ PAs, but finding 300-400 should be doable if he's healthy even if they prioritize Hoskins more than they should. He's taking Jake Bauers spot on the roster, and he got 346 last year. Take his usage as a starting point, and carve out a start here and there. Yelich will still play a decent amount of LF, Contreras should probably get some more full days off than he did last year. 

There will be a decent amount of days where Contreras is at C and Yelich in LF, or either has a day off (or is injured). Assume 4 PA/start. 50 starts at 1B, 20 at DH, 10 other (LF, RF, 2B, 3B), and one PH PA in 50% of the games he starts on the bench gets you to ~360 PA. This is easily doable without really prioritizing him highly, or by expecting significant injuries to others. And injuries will happen. If Black himself is healthy, he'll have opportunities. 

[Brian]

2 hours ago, Lathund said:

The money is spent no matter what, should do what gives the best results. Hoskins is significantly better against LHP than RHP, both in 2024 and for his career. They won't use him in a strict platoon, but even something like every start against LHP and half the starts against RHP is ~2/3 of the games, leaving 50+ 1B starts to someone else. Consider that Hoskins would also at least sometimes DH too. Not talking about Black getting 600+ PAs, but finding 300-400 should be doable if he's healthy even if they prioritize Hoskins more than they should. He's taking Jake Bauers spot on the roster, and he got 346 last year. Take his usage as a starting point, and carve out a start here and there. Yelich will still play a decent amount of LF, Contreras should probably get some more full days off than he did last year. 

There will be a decent amount of days where Contreras is at C and Yelich in LF, or either has a day off (or is injured). Assume 4 PA/start. 50 starts at 1B, 20 at DH, 10 other (LF, RF, 2B, 3B), and one PH PA in 50% of the games he starts on the bench gets you to ~360 PA. This is easily doable without really prioritizing him highly, or by expecting significant injuries to others. And injuries will happen. If Black himself is healthy, he'll have opportunities. 

I'm sure Hoskins will have a better average this season, even though he hit 26 home runs and missed over 30 games last year.  I don't think his knee was ever quite right last season either after he tweaked it in May last season sliding.  His ACL should be much improved this year, the only thing working against him is his age at 32 in March. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

I'm not necessarily advocating for this-----I think him filling the Bauers role on the roster makes quite a bit of sense---but I'd be interested in knowing how much value he'd have on the trade market. A good hit tool, but didn't produce when at the MLB level. Versatility, but not a good rep defensively. Good athlete w/excellent speed, OF might be his best home but he's barely played there. And from the Brewers perspective you can throw in that there are multiple possibilities to fill his role but none of them are 'there' yet (Martinez, Boeve, Wilken). It's a quandry.

 

[umphrey]

Only issue, I think Bauers is considered a good defensive 1B while Black is below average there at best? 

[brewcrewdue80]

On 12/18/2024 at 1:26 PM, TURBO said:

I think EMJ is going to make his debut this season at some point.  Love this guy!

This is the basic feeling on Tyler Black heading in to last season.

[JohnBriggs12]

One thing that puzzled me with Black is that when he did come up, they batted him 3rd for more than half his plate appearances.  What were they thinking?  That seemed ludicrous.  If they're going to give him any extended role as DH/1B, it's got to be at or near the bottom of the order until he shows he can handle major league pitching.  I've never thought of him as a guy with a high ceiling but maybe he can produce enough to be a productive hitter.  But if you asked me who I'd prefer in that role, Black or bringing back Bauers, I'd take Bauers in a heartbeat.  

[Devinep]

I was thinking Tyler Black would be this year’s Jake Bauers. But with his defensive struggles at 1B, he looks to be a better fit as an OF-only. Maybe at this point Black would be of best use as a trade piece to an OF-needy team. To the rays for Brandon Lowe or to Miami for Jonah Bride+. Those 2 trades also bring back a backup 1B as well as needed hitter

[Brian]

14 hours ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

One thing that puzzled me with Black is that when he did come up, they batted him 3rd for more than half his plate appearances.  What were they thinking?  That seemed ludicrous.  If they're going to give him any extended role as DH/1B, it's got to be at or near the bottom of the order until he shows he can handle major league pitching.  I've never thought of him as a guy with a high ceiling but maybe he can produce enough to be a productive hitter.  But if you asked me who I'd prefer in that role, Black or bringing back Bauers, I'd take Bauers in a heartbeat.  

The only reason I can think of for batting him in that spot is his running speed.  I believe we modeled ourselves last season after the Arizona Diamondbacks more so than the traditional lineup .  But I agree, you have to be a much better hitter than Black to be batting #3. 

[sveumrules]

Black was hitting 3rd because Yelich was hurt and Murph likes to alternate L/R.

It was either Black, Turang, Frelick, Bauers or Perkins who was going to be hitting 3rd in those six whole games that Black started in the three hole (with the Brewers going 4 W - 2 L in those games.)

[Brian]

16 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Black was hitting 3rd because Yelich was hurt and Murph likes to alternate L/R.

It was either Black, Turang, Frelick, Bauers or Perkins who was going to be hitting 3rd in those six whole games that Black started in the three hole (with the Brewers going 4 W - 2 L in those games.)

Ok, I forgot about that line of thinking, I thought Counsell was the famous one for that. My personal opinion is to simply put your best hitters and hottest hitters towards the front of the front of the order as being a better strategy. 

[TURBO]

I think we need to commit to letting him get regular at bats for at least a solid month before giving up on the kid.  Not - playing him for a game, then sitting him for 3 games, then pinch hitting him the next game, then sitting him for 2, then starting him, etc...  Regular, daily at bats for at the very least a solid month.  Even a month just isn't enough.  Look how long it took Chourio to get going. (NO, I am not comparing Black's talent to Chourio)

[Thurston Fluff]

Am I the only one who doesn't know if Black is capable of playing decent defense at first or not? It seems like everyone just accepts Black is not good enough to play first but how much time and information do we have to know that for sure? He's a young, athletic guy who hasn't played a lot at first. It seems premature to make any valid assessment going forward IMHO.

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Am I the only one who doesn't know if Black is capable of playing decent defense at first or not? It seems like everyone just accepts Black is not good enough to play first but how much time and information do we have to know that for sure? He's a young, athletic guy who hasn't played a lot at first. It seems premature to make any valid assessment going forward IMHO.

Same thing with OF.  What do we really know about his OF ability?  

[markedman5]

It seems to be the Brewers brass who have the doubts about his defense……based on their never ending movement of Black from one position to another. 
 

The reports from Brewer fan regulars who watch lots of minor league games have also been less than glowing.

 

Obviously none of us have seen enough of his defense at the major league level to see it for ourselves but we didn’t have to see Keston play major league 2nd base to make assumptions that he would struggle there and I didn’t need to see Turang play defense in the majors to feel very confident that he would be excellent up here……..all the reports said it was a strength.

 

[duewizard]

2 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Am I the only one who doesn't know if Black is capable of playing decent defense at first or not? It seems like everyone just accepts Black is not good enough to play first but how much time and information do we have to know that for sure? He's a young, athletic guy who hasn't played a lot at first. It seems premature to make any valid assessment going forward IMHO.

Murphy has commented on Black's defensive struggles at third, and its one of the first criticisms sites like BA and Fangraphs  offer. I watched a lot of Shuckers baseball in 2023 and he didn't look great. Awkward moving side to side, which is quite shocking being am athletic guy as you correctly pointed out. I haven't seen him play much first but he generally doesn't look comfortable in the infield.

Im sure @Joseph Zarr and @Spencer Michaelis can give you better, more detailed insight. But generally speaking wherever he plays his defense will be a detriment

[Joseph Zarr]

43 minutes ago, duewizard said:

Murphy has commented on Black's defensive struggles at third, and its one of the first criticisms sites like BA and Fangraphs  offer. I watched a lot of Shuckers baseball in 2023 and he didn't look great. Awkward moving side to side, which is quite shocking being am athletic guy as you correctly pointed out. I haven't seen him play much first but he generally doesn't look comfortable in the infield.

Im sure @Joseph Zarr and @Spencer Michaelis can give you better, more detailed insight. But generally speaking wherever he plays his defense will be a detriment

Black's best defensive performances in the Minor Leagues have come on the OF grass where his innate athletic gifts really take over. He's made some realllly nice ranging catches out in CF and LF. I personally don't trust a single bit of his infield defensive output - it just rarely ever looks or feels clean.  This isn't to say he can't make plays on the infield. He can and he has. But, it just isn't consistently reliable in any fashion. At 1B, in particular, his scoops and stabs on liners or throws to 1B across the infield were very suspect in addition to not understanding positional responsibilities on grounders to the 2B side. How the Brewers end up using him is a hard nut to crack.

[Jim Goulart]

 

[Jim Goulart]

 

[brewcrewdue80]

It's crazy that 2 seasons ago, Black was who Milw promoted to AAA and left Chourio behind in AA longer.  And then here Black is, nearly sounding like there's no future for him because defense. 20pct k rate is on the upper tier these days.  The speed and that should translate to an above average BA.  It would be awful to have a repeat Hiura we selected 1st round at 5-10. 

[sveumrules]

8 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

It's crazy that 2 seasons ago, Black was who Milw promoted to AAA and left Chourio behind in AA longer. 

Black’s almost four years older, had been hitting all year at Biloxi vs one scorching month for Jackson, and played a completely different position than Chourio did.

I don’t recall thinking there was anything crazy about it at the time.

[Austin Tatious]

I’d like to see Black get on track for at least 300 mlb at bats at some combo of 1B and DH, batting 7th or lower.  He can still prove to be a dynamic offensive player.  

[brewcrewdue80]

On 12/30/2024 at 8:53 AM, sveumrules said:

Black’s almost four years older, had been hitting all year at Biloxi vs one scorching month for Jackson, and played a completely different position than Chourio did.

I don’t recall thinking there was anything crazy about it at the time.

I figured the tandem would go up together. Kinda like the trio did the year before.  Chourio was on his way towards all time records for AA at his age.

[BigWoo53]

I would love for Black to get the opportunity if the club looks as currently constructed. The issue with Black is he has an odd skillset and by all accounts isn't good at any position. Also, DH is likely mostly going to be accounted for by Yeli, Contreras and Hoskins. Black I hope gets the Bauers role and potentially hit his way into DH ABs as well. I think Black can be a 20-30 guy at peak (not in 2025) but could be a 10-15 HR and 20 steal guy with Bauers like role. 

[Playing Catch]

8 hours ago, BigWoo53 said:

I think Black can be a 20-30 guy at peak (not in 2025) but could be a 10-15 HR and 20 steal guy with Bauers like role.

This is certainly the hope. That all of the promise shown in the minors will begin to translate to the big leagues, and that he can find a role as a lefty 1B/LF/DH - pinch hitter/runner. That's a lot of little roles that his skillset works with. He may not be able to get 4 PAs a game, but he could consistently get 1-2 PAs a game.