Packers 2025 offseason

[homer]

Packers just got a ton of cap relief. 

[JosephC]

I suppose that Jalen Ramsey can enter the conversation now.  I'm not for it as it just seems to add a problem right after subtracting a problem.  But there is no question that Ramsey can still play, is likely better than a healthy Alexander and has averaged 14.67 games played over the last 3 years (missed 7 games in 2023, started all 17 games in 2024).

Overthecap has Ramsey's cap number at 16.661 million, but the Dolphins are on the hook for the pro-rated part of his signing bonus and have already paid his roster bonus, so the new team would only pay him 5.816 million this year and not be on the hook for any money past this season.  So at a salary cap figure of less than 6 million, even a Ramsey detractor (like me) cannot find any fault with the money aspect.

Gutekunst likely held onto Alexander this long thinking he could actually get something for him on the trade market, which wasn't the smartest thing considering his contract and the missed playing time.  No doubt the Dolphins would probably start by asking for something like a third and fourth round pick for Ramsey.  When all is said and done I think the max they get out of him is a fifth but it's probably just as likely they either get a sixth OR they end up taking a pick swap...something like getting a 5th in 2026 and then giving back a 7th in 2027.  One thing that helps is that it sound like the most interested party in Ramsey was the Rams, and the national media (who admittedly, has been wrong about just about everything this off-season) is now talking about the Rams being the likely landing spot for Alexander.  So if there was any competition to get Ramsey, having Alexander out there probably removes one team from that list.

Again, I'm not in favor of Ramsey, but if a Ramsey fan would argue that you bring him in and deal with the attitude for one year...at the price-tag of under 6 million and either give up something like a 6th round pick, I don't think I could argue that it's a bad move.

[OldHeidelberg]

It will be interesting to see what sort of contract he gets, my guess is a 7-8 million one year prove it deal. Hopefully it's not with a rival and he goes to the AFC, it will sting a lot less for me. We just had a similar situation with Jones and of course he put in a relatively healthy year with the Vikes although he did slow late in the year. 

 

Jalen Ramsey? 

[OldHeidelberg]

5 minutes ago, JosephC said:

I suppose that Jalen Ramsey can enter the conversation now.  I'm not for it as it just seems to add a problem right after subtracting a problem.  But there is no question that Ramsey can still play, is likely better than a healthy Alexander and has averaged 14.67 games played over the last 3 years (missed 7 games in 2023, started all 17 games in 2024).

Overthecap has Ramsey's cap number at 16.661 million, but the Dolphins are on the hook for the pro-rated part of his signing bonus and have already paid his roster bonus, so the new team would only pay him 5.816 million this year and not be on the hook for any money past this season.  So at a salary cap figure of less than 6 million, even a Ramsey detractor (like me) cannot find any fault with the money aspect.

Gutekunst likely held onto Alexander this long thinking he could actually get something for him on the trade market, which wouldn't be the smartest thing considering his contract and the missed playing time.  No doubt the Dolphins would probably start by asking for something like a third and fourth round pick for Ramsey.  When all is said and done I think the max they get out of him is a fifth but it's probably just as likely they either get a sixth OR they end up taking a pick swap...something like getting a 5th in 2026 and then giving back a 7th in 2027.  One thing that helps is that it sound like the most interested party in Ramsey was the Rams, and the national media (who admittedly, has been wrong about just about everything this off-season) is now talking about the Rams being the likely landing spot for Alexander.  So if there was any competition to get Ramsey, having Alexander out there probably removes one team from that list.

Again, I'm not in favor of Ramsey, but if a Ramsey fan would argue that you bring him in and deal with the attitude for one year...at the price-tag of under 6 million and either give up something like a 6th round pick, I don't think I could argue that it's a bad move.

Was just thinking the same thing and I assumed the cap hit would be larger. I would be all for it but it's not a Packer type move. You have to think Packers are bringing in someone though, looks like Gilmore is off the market now. 

[JosephC]

I'm looking through the list and Stephon Gilmore appears to be, by far, the best free agent option out there.  I don't think he's signed yet.  An internet search pops up a total piece-of-crap headline indicating he's signed with Kansas City, but it is nothing more than click-bait...going into the article and it's just speculation that he could sign with the Chiefs.

He's old and one of these years he's going to come back and just be too slow to play.  That could happen this year, or it could happen in 2026 or it could happen in 2027.  He's only missed 3 games total in the last 3 years.  PFF has last year's coverage grade as 118/222 cornerbacks, so below average, but his yards/target was 7.1 and QB rating against was 94.1.  Everything you look at indicates he is either average or just below average.  You won't find anything much better at this point in free agency.  He plays outside and fits the bill for what the Packers need.

Other free agent CB options are Asante Samuel Jr who only played in 4 games last year and has a horrible reputation of NOT playing the run.  Rasul Douglas who couldn't afford to lose a step...and has lost that step.  Kendall Fuller who had two concussions last year and ended the season on IR with a knee injury.  Mike Hilton who is considered a slot-only cornerback.  Gilmore seems to be the only guy left in free agency.

That said, I think Gutekunst is done and what the Packers have now is what they will enter the pre-season games with.  I think it's a big mistake, but time will tell.

[JosephC]

34 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

It will be interesting to see what sort of contract he gets, my guess is a 7-8 million one year prove it deal.

It sucks that we'll never know what the Packers re-structured offer was, so we'll never be able to make the comparison to see if Alexander made the right choice or not.  

Hard to believe Alexander will get anything other than a 1 year deal.  Even if a team did throw out a two-year offer, it would likely come with a modest signing bonus and maybe a base salary of something like 16 million in 2026 (that a team could walk away from after this season).  Even from Alexander's perspective, it makes more sense just to do a 1 year deal, do everything to get on the field for 15-17 games, and then next off-season he could be in line for something like a 3 year, 54 million dollar deal with nearly half of that guaranteed.  A one-year deal just makes sense for everybody.

[Sixtolezcano]

I equate this move to the Brewers not acquiring a 3rd baseman last off-season. Gutey knew that an outside CB was a great position of need and has not dealt with it adequately. Maybe the Packers can cover up this deficiency with a stronger pass rush (Van Ness, Cox Jr., Gary, Enagbare, Brooks, Wooden, Wyatt and Clark to name a few)but this doesn’t look any better than last season. It appears we will be looking forward to many high scoring games this season. I hope the offense will be up to the challenge.

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I equate this move to the Brewers not acquiring a 3rd baseman last off-season.

Caleb Durbin was acquired in the offseason and has been the Brewers primary 3B this year.

His +1.02 Win Probability Added is tops among Brewers batters so far this year. 

[OldHeidelberg]

1 hour ago, JosephC said:

It sucks that we'll never know what the Packers re-structured offer was, so we'll never be able to make the comparison to see if Alexander made the right choice or not.  

Hard to believe Alexander will get anything other than a 1 year deal.  Even if a team did throw out a two-year offer, it would likely come with a modest signing bonus and maybe a base salary of something like 16 million in 2026 (that a team could walk away from after this season).  Even from Alexander's perspective, it makes more sense just to do a 1 year deal, do everything to get on the field for 15-17 games, and then next off-season he could be in line for something like a 3 year, 54 million dollar deal with nearly half of that guaranteed.  A one-year deal just makes sense for everybody.

It is reported that it was a deal that would have made him a FA after 25, which would have been nice since we could get a potential comp pick. He didn't like the structure which likely means it had too much money in incentives or the incentives were tougher to hit like 80% of snaps or something. 

I would guess as free agent he will get more in base salary than the Packers were offering, a lot of contenders would take a gamble on a 1 year deal with him. I would like to know if they lowballed him or just converted a lot of that $17 million in new money to incentives. Maybe it will leak. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It's the Packers. They won't sign a known name floating around in July. The fill-in will be a UDFA from Western Applegate Tech,

[HarryDoyle]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Caleb Durbin was acquired in the offseason and has been the Brewers primary 3B this year.

His +1.02 Win Probability Added is tops among Brewers batters so far this year. 

Considering who he’s replacing that’s hardly a surprise.

[HarryDoyle]

I’m going to miss hearing his name on the inactive list every week.

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I equate this move to the Brewers not acquiring a 3rd baseman last off-season. Gutey knew that an outside CB was a great position of need and has not dealt with it adequately. Maybe the Packers can cover up this deficiency with a stronger pass rush (Van Ness, Cox Jr., Gary, Enagbare, Brooks, Wooden, Wyatt and Clark to name a few)but this doesn’t look any better than last season. It appears we will be looking forward to many high scoring games this season. I hope the offense will be up to the challenge.

I will happily accept a defense that meets last year's level:

• Total Points Allowed: 6th
• Total Yds Allowed: 5th

That was with Alexander playing in 33% of the total snaps and giving up 3 TDs in 6+ games. 

I think our biggest opportunity for gain is on the WR and QB performance.  Love had a "meh" season and our WRs certainly underplayed to their talent level.  

2 hours ago, JosephC said:

Gutekunst likely held onto Alexander this long thinking he could actually get something for him on the trade market, which wasn't the smartest thing considering his contract and the missed playing time.  No doubt the Dolphins would probably start by asking for something like a third and fourth round pick for Ramsey.  When all is said and done I think the max they get out of him is a fifth but it's probably just as likely they either get a sixth OR they end up taking a pick swap...something like getting a 5th in 2026 and then giving back a 7th in 2027.  One thing that helps is that it sound like the most interested party in Ramsey was the Rams, and the national media (who admittedly, has been wrong about just about everything this off-season) is now talking about the Rams being the likely landing spot for Alexander.  So if there was any competition to get Ramsey, having Alexander out there probably removes one team from that list.

Perhaps Gute thought he could get a trade around the draft, but he clearly was working on contract negotiation.  He held onto him... because he could.  When it came down to putting him on the field, he had to play the cards dealt him. 

[patrickgpe]

2 hours ago, homer said:

Packers just got a ton of cap relief. 

that they won't use....

[OldHeidelberg]

2 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

I’m going to miss hearing his name on the inactive list every week.

Yes, and the unexpected midweek additions on the injury list. I haven't forgotten how disappointing it was that he didn't make it back for the playoffs as expected. I just wish we had better options without him.

[patrickgpe]

10 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

It's the Packers. They won't sign a known name floating around in July. The fill-in will be a UDFA from Western Applegate Tech,

thats the frustrating thing. I get they get 17MM extra cap space, but unless they make a trade for Hendrickson and extend him. don't see the point. Yes they can use that money to extend their own, which is nice but that doesn't help in 2025. 

[Brian]

Eagles News: Philadelphia named among potential Jaire Alexander landing spots

Philadelphia Eagles news and links for 6/9/25. 

https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2025/6/9/24446026/eagles-news-philadelphia-potential-jalen-alexander-landing-spots-cornerback-packers-release-nfl

[CheezWizHed]

4 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Obviously the games aren’t played on paper, surprising players could break out, etc, but no unbiased Packer can say this looks like a more talented roster than what we went into the 2024 season with. 

With losing JA, looking at sheer talent... you could be right.  With looking at who played and availability, I think it is close to being the same:

• OL: Out with Myers (and Dillard), In with Banks, Belton, and Williams - I think this is a big improvement on talent. Banks can be an average G with Jenkins being a top 10 C.  Depth is greatly improved. 
• RB: Out with Dillon (didn't play); essentially adding Lloyd that missed just about the whole year. Technically not an addition, but more talent will be available this year.  Neutral if you'd rather not look at it that way. 
• WR: Out is Watson due to injury, but will probably return sometime mid-season. Adding Golden and Williams and Hardman.  I vote for a small positive depending on when Watson returned.  Neutral if he doesn't return. 
• DL: Out with Slaton, In with Brinson and Stackhouse.  This is a small negative on talent.  Slaton was solid, but didn't play many snaps overall (39%). 
• LB: Out with Wilson, In with Oliver.  Wilson was a solid backup and ST player, but not a huge loss.  These players bring very different skills, but I'll call it neutral for talent. 
• CB: Out with JA, Ballentine, Rochell, and Stokes. In with Hobbs and Robinson.  A healthy and happy JA makes this a top 5 defense easy (considering they were knocking at the door mostly without him).  Overall, this is a negative, but IMO mostly due to depth and less on the starting end (given JA's lack of availability). 

For net acquisitions, I think the offense came out better than defense, but overall "talent" level seems to be about the same.  But that is normal for how most of the best teams operate; fill gaps with FA and draft and develop.

So what are our biggest development opportunities?

• QB: The NFL is QB driven.  This year will be huge to see what Love becomes.  Was the second half of 2023 a fluke?  Or can he get back there.
• LB: Cooper, Cooper, Cooper.  He is the key to our defense becoming studly.  Only improvement by Love can impact the team more next year, IMO. 
• WR: I suspect that with the extra focus on drops, we will see one of Reed or Wicks step up this year.  Golden and Williams bring a very unique skillset also.  I can see Williams being a goal-line beast. 
• S: Williams and Bullard taking a second-year step would make large impacts to the DB. Both have the talent to expect that to happen.
• OL: I think the starters and the depth are both improved

But there are smaller opportunities too:

• TE: Kraft could take another step. Musgrave also has potential to be dangerous. 
• DL: I think the change in DL coach will have a positive impact on all of them.  Clark not being injured might be enough to offset Slaton's loss.  Not sure what to think about LVN, but I have to imagine Gary is going to be better than last year. 
• CB: Mostly depth players coming from the 7th round/UDFA ranks.  Hobbs or Valentine succeeding on the outside will be interesting to watch. Not much of a ceiling, but not a terrible floor either. 

This is how the GM game works.  With the salary cap, no one gets to go sign All-Pros at every level. 

 

[LouisEly]

3 hours ago, JosephC said:

That said, I think Gutekunst is done and what the Packers have now is what they will enter the pre-season games with.  I think it's a big mistake, but time will tell.

Last season the Packers were 5th in total defense, 5th in yards/play given up, 13th in passing yards given up, 9th in QB rating given up.  They did this with JA playing only 1/3rd of the defensive snaps.  They bring back Nixon (94% of defensive snaps), Bullard (nickel, 72% of snaps), and Valentine (50%), while adding Hobbs.  Hobbs replaces Stokes, Robinson will likely replace Rochell/Ballentine, and they bring back two guys who were late round picks last year in Hadden and King. 

I said before the draft that one of the big factors in the draft was how the Packers felt about the development of Hadden and King, and given that the Packers didn't draft a CB until the 7th round and given that they released JA, the tea leaves suggest that the Packers feel good about Hadden and King as backups.

[sveumrules]

5 hours ago, adambr2 said:

The Packers took care of business against pretty much every inferior opponent on the schedule.

Packers had the 5th best point differential in the NFL last year, the majority of their schedule was inferior opponents.

& this year they'll have a 3rd place schedule instead of a 2nd place schedule.

[adambr2]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Packers had the 5th best point differential in the NFL last year, the majority of their schedule was inferior opponents.

& this year they'll have a 3rd place schedule instead of a 2nd place schedule.

Yes, I think it’s highly likely that once again, the Packers will beat those inferior opponents, get a 6th or 7th seed, and be one and done in January.

Here is my issue — at the end of the 2023 season, when the Packers came within a hair of the NFC Championship, they looked like a team on the drastic rise. The improvement from the first half of 2023 was extreme. The “rebuild” was clearly coming to an end, and expectations were high coming into 2024. 

Stagnation, and even decline, certainly weren’t expected. “They’re young, they’ll improve even more!” was the cliche line repeated.

Fact is, Gute hasn’t done a good job at all of complementing the young talent on this team with any experience. When the expectations were non-existent, that was fine. Now, not so much. The goal isn’t to have the youngest team in the NFL every year. It’s to win a Super Bowl.

I think we can all agree that, a year and a half later after the 49er playoff exit, not even being among the top 5 teams in the conference as far as who should realistically have expectations of achieving that goal this season., is certainly disappointing.

[adambr2]

As an aside, the fact that Gute just cut literally his 1st or 2nd best 1st round pick of all time is a pretty good illustration of how brutal his track record is in the 1st.

[Sixtolezcano]

6 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Caleb Durbin was acquired in the offseason and has been the Brewers primary 3B this year.

His +1.02 Win Probability Added is tops among Brewers batters so far this year. 

Almost all of that accumulated in the last 15 games. Before that most posters were looking to replace him  with Wilkins or Cooper Pratt.

[Sixtolezcano]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Packers had the 5th best point differential in the NFL last year, the majority of their schedule was inferior opponents.

& this year they'll have a 3rd place schedule instead of a 2nd place schedule.

The 2024 season schedule was still weaker than 2025. In 2024 they played against the NFC West and AFC South teams and in 2025 they will play the NFC East and AFC North division teams. The 2025 schedule seems that it will be much more challenging than 2024.

[LouisEly]

8 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

The 2024 season schedule was still weaker than 2025. In 2024 they played against the NFC West and AFC South teams and in 2025 they will play the NFC East and AFC North division teams. The 2025 schedule seems that it will be much more challenging than 2024.

I don't disagree with the subjective opinion of this article, that there will be very few games where the opponents will have a QB advantage:

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2025/5/13/24428710/packers-2025-schedule-ranking-every-opposing-quarterback-the-packers-will-play