NL Central

[Frisbee Slider]

Anyone hopeful the Cubs are 0-2 by the time we finish breakfast on Wednesday?

Will the Pirates have their customary ‘fast start’ before fading fast?

Are the Reds ready to be above .500?

Has anyone heard from the Cardinals? 

[Playing Catch]

As the days count down to Opening Day, I'm feeling more and more apprehensive about this season.

I think the Cubs win the division, winning somewhere near 93 games. I think the Reds and Brewers will be behind them in the 88-90 win range. Pirates 80-84, Cardinals 72 wins.

[BeerSlide]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

As the days count down to Opening Day, I'm feeling more and more apprehensive about this season.

I think the Cubs win the division, winning somewhere near 93 games. I think the Reds and Brewers will be behind them in the 88-90 win range. Pirates 80-84, Cardinals 72 wins.

This is pretty much exactly where my mind is at as well as far as order of finish. I just think we're due for a year in line with expert analysis and statistical modeling instead of yet another year of exceeding expectations. Also not crazy to think we could still exceed expectations but fall short in the Central. Admittedly, I thought the same thing last year and was wrong!

[sveumrules]

As of today FanGraphs has the NL Central looking like this...

CHC: 84.0 W | 41.0% winDIV
MIL: 80.8 W | 21.2% winDIV
STL: 79.0 W | 14.2% winDIV
CIN: 78.3 W | 11.8% winDIV
PIT: 78.2 W | 11.9% winDIV

Just for reference, over the eight full seasons in the FG database the Cubs (-4 wins cumulative), Cardinals (+9 wins), Reds (-10 wins) and Pirates (-14 wins) have been some of the more accurately projected teams by the FG computers. The Brewers (+71 wins) have not.

So where might the Brewers find those extra nine or so wins they have averaged over the preseason FG projections in 2025? Let's look at their Depth Charts to see...

Contreras (4.8 projWAR)
Last two years he has been at 5.7 and 5.4 WAR, might be able to sneak an extra win here.

Hoskins (0.9 projWAR)
A return to his pre-injury form (1.9 WAR per 550 PAs from 2018-22) would get us a win here.

Chourio (3.1 projWAR)
Maintaining his last four months pace over a full season would put Jackson around 6.0 WAR or three wins above his projection.

Yelich (2.4 projWAR)
Christian put up 3.8 WAR in a full 2023, and 3.0 WAR in half of 2024. Depending how the back is feeling could get another win or two here pretty easily.

Mitchell (2.0 projWAR)
Garrett has averaged 4.0 WAR per 500 PAs in his MLB career so far. Problem is getting him to 500 PAs. But health maybe finally cooperating could see another win or two here as well.  

Turang/Ortiz/Frelick (6.4 projWAR)
With 7.1 WAR from the trio last year it isn't too hard to see them adding a win or two over that total in 2025 with another year of development.

Bullpen (3.1 projWAR)
Brewers relievers have averaged around 6.5 rWAR/WPA per full season going back to 2016. Could be another three or four wins here. If they keep up their recent performance levels (20 rWAR / +25 WPA) of the last two years there are even more wins out there for the taking.

Pitching Staff (-0.11 projERA-FIP)
Brewers have averaged a -0.25 ERA-FIP going back to 2016. If they hit that level this year it would be another two or three wins. If they keep up their recent performance levels (-0.51 ERA-FIP) of the last two years that would be more like an extra six or seven wins.

Of course all these things aren't going to happen, but the Brewers have plenty of viable avenues toward beating their FG projections once again.

[Oxy]

5 hours ago, sveumrules said:

As of today FanGraphs has the NL Central looking like this...

...  ...

Of course all these things aren't going to happen, but the Brewers have plenty of viable avenues toward beating their FG projections once again.

Good stuff.  On the other end, barring injury it's hard to see anybody doing a lot WORSE than those FG projections.  Contreras could disappoint and Yelich/Mitchell could be hurt...otherwise it's basically excellent defense and okay pitching with a good bullpen--and the depth in the pitching staff leads me to believe finding UPSIDE there is more likely than downside, since if a guy stinks we just replace him with a different talented-ish arm.

[Playing Catch]

19 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Just for reference, over the eight full seasons in the FG database the Cubs (-4 wins cumulative), Cardinals (+9 wins), Reds (-10 wins) and Pirates (-14 wins) have been some of the more accurately projected teams by the FG computers. The Brewers (+71 wins) have not

I never even took stats in high school, but can't help but think that the FG folks are looking at this. That's a whopping +9 wins/season for 8 seasons. At some point, that becomes a real trend, and they would need to ask themselves what is happening.

My guess is that over time, DRS is proving to be a better metric for projections than UZR or OAA.

[sveumrules]

12 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I never even took stats in high school, but can't help but think that the FG folks are looking at this. That's a whopping +9 wins/season for 8 seasons. At some point, that becomes a real trend, and they would need to ask themselves what is happening.

My guess is that over time, DRS is a better metric for projections than UZR or OAA.

Yeah, looking at Depth Charts they have the Brewers projected for +8.8 FLD. They were at +64 DRS last year and +68 in 2023.

There’s some heavy overlap with the ERA-FIP here, but it looks like the regression they bake into their fielding projections is costing the Brewers five or six wins from the jump.

Also saw they have the Brewers projected for +7.2 BsR after they notched a +19.7 last year. Could be another win waiting out on the bases too.

[treego14]

Brewers win 100 games this season.

Brewers win the World Series this season.

Rob Manfred is scratching his head on how he let this happen.

League-wide trend is to no longer hire/employ high-priced talent and follow the Brewers model of winning!

A self-imposed salary cap rules the day.

MLB players threaten to strike.

Rob Manfred advises players to get off-season jobs to supplement their incomes!

And, finally Counsell, Stearns, and Adames seek professional counseling!

[Frisbee Slider]

Cubs take 1-0 lead against Dodgers. Counsell goes to bullpen after 4 innings of zero hits from Imanaga. Four walks allowed though.. 

After a stomach bug (Betts) and rib soreness (Freeman), the Dodgers lineup doesn’t seem too tough.

[Frisbee Slider]

…As Cubs bullpen immediately surrenders lead. 

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs published their staff predictions today. Votes shook out like this…

Cubs
WinDiv (15)
Brewers
WinDiv (7) WildCard (3)
Reds
WinDiv (3)
Cards
WinDiv (1)
Pirates
WinDiv (0)

Looks like Jay Jaffe and Ben Clemens were among the main writers who picked MIL to win the NLC.

Contreras (2 votes) and Chourio (1 vote) got some NL MVP love too while Logan Henderson also picked up a vote for NL ROY.

Nobody picked the Brewers to make the World Series. Dodgers vs Red Sox (6 votes) was the most predicted pairing.

[Frisbee Slider]

Cubs are 7-2 since returning to America. They even took the first two games against the Padres, who appear to be a tough team.

[Frisbee Slider]

Justin Steele getting MRI on pitching elbow and is now in the 15 day DL. Colin Rea will likely join rotation. Or, Cubs may recall Jordan Wicks from Iowa.

 

[igor67]

The Cubs first month schedule just looks rough. A ton of the good West Coast teams and a lot of travel.

[MoreTrife]

1 hour ago, igor67 said:

The Cubs first month schedule just looks rough. A ton of the good West Coast teams and a lot of travel.

And worryingly they've handled it pretty well. We'll see. 

[owbc]

We’re 2 weeks in and the standings are getting pretty close to projections. The Cubs look pretty good, nobody else in the Central seems like a threat. I suspect the Reds will get better as the year goes on. 

[sveumrules]

4 minutes ago, owbc said:

We’re 2 weeks in and the standings are getting pretty close to projections. The Cubs look pretty good, nobody else in the Central seems like a threat. I suspect the Reds will get better as the year goes on. 

Yeah, FanGraphs playoff odds have already started migrating some of the projected Wins and Division% upwards…

MARCH 14
CHC: 84.0 W | 41.0% winDIV
MIL: 80.8 W | 21.2% winDIV
STL: 79.0 W | 14.2% winDIV
CIN: 78.3 W | 11.8% winDIV
PIT: 78.2 W | 11.9% winDIV

TODAY
CHC: 85.4 W | 51.5% winDIV
MIL: 81.9 W | 25.5% winDIV
STL: 78.2 W | 11.1% winDIV
PIT: 76.6 W | 7.1% winDIV
CIN: 75.4 W | 4.9% winDIV

[Frisbee Slider]

I still don’t see the Cubs having 2x the potential to win the division compared to Milwaukee. I guess more veterans means more data points to project success.

[Frisbee Slider]

Cubs at LAD this weekend. Yamamoto tonight and then Sasaki/Glasnow. Both Sasaki and Glasnow have shown very mixed results over their first 2-3 starts.

Phillies at STL and CIN at PIT.

 

[Jopal78]

23 hours ago, MoreTrife said:

And worryingly they've handled it pretty well. We'll see. 

Plus, after April they will be done for the season with LAD, SD and AZ all tough teams. 

[AKCheesehead]

6 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Cubs at LAD this weekend. Yamamoto tonight and then Sasaki/Glasnow. Both Sasaki and Glasnow have shown very mixed results over their first 2-3 starts.

Phillies at STL and CIN at PIT.

 

Go Dodgers feels like such a strange thing to say.

[sveumrules]

On 4/10/2025 at 11:37 AM, Frisbee Slider said:

I still don’t see the Cubs having 2x the potential to win the division compared to Milwaukee. I guess more veterans means more data points to project success.

If you think the FanGraphs projections are a lil outta whack, don't look at PECOTA over on BPro...

CHC: 93.6 W | 92.3% winDIV
MIL: 79.6 W | 4.5% winDIV
STL: 74.9 W | 1.4% winDIV
PIT: 73.8 W | 1.4% winDIV
CIN: 72.2 W | 0.4% winDIV

[Frisbee Slider]

13 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

If you think the FanGraphs projections are a lil outta whack, don't look at PECOTA over on BPro...

CHC: 93.6 W | 92.3% winDIV
MIL: 79.6 W | 4.5% winDIV
STL: 74.9 W | 1.4% winDIV
PIT: 73.8 W | 1.4% winDIV
CIN: 72.2 W | 0.4% winDIV

Kyle Tucker is worth 10 wins, I guess.

[Playing Catch]

17 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Kyle Tucker is worth 10 wins, I guess.

4.2 fWAR in 78 games last season... so yeah, maybe.

[Frisbee Slider]

Colin Rea takes the mound for Chicago against Tyler Glasnow and the Dodgers. It will be interesting to see how Rea does and if some of the Dodgers rotation begins to improve.