How Should We Interpret Ernesto Martinez Jr's Incandescent Start to 2025?

[Jamie Cameron]

The towering slugger was named International League Player of the Week for April 8th through 13th, after hitting .529 with a 1.501 OPS in a week-long slate against the Memphis Redbirds. What do his under-the-hood numbers say about his performance? Let’s dig in.

Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

You won’t find Ernesto Martinez Jr. on top prospect lists. You might not even find him in organizational top-30 lists. He’s kind of old (turns 26 in June). He doesn't have a ton of positional defensive value (solely first base, except for 10 games in center field, since 2021). He’s also putting up metrics at Triple-A Nashville that warrant a full, Exorcist-style 360° turning of heads.

Martinez has been in the Brewers organization since signing as an international free agent out of Cuba in 2017. To say it’s been a slow burn is underselling it. It took him a full six seasons to get regular playing time even at Double A, finally accruing a full season there in 2024. It was worth the wait. He put up a .284/.365/.466 line there, with 13 home runs and an approach underpinned by solid plate discipline and swing decisions.

In This is Spinal Tap, guitarist Nigel Tufnel touts an amp that goes up to 11.

"Well it’s one louder, isn’t it?" answers Tufnel, bemused at being asked a question of the difference between his amplifier and a standard model. To borrow parlance from the movie, in 2025, Martinez has turned it up to 11.

Martinez is putting up top-of-the-scale power numbers, currently. He carried a 111-mph 90th-percentile exit velocity into game action on April 15th. That’s Aaron Judge territory. His average exit velocity of 97.5 mph would also be tippy-top of the scale in the big leagues, along with Judge and Shohei Ohtani. Insert your Star Wars prequel meme here; There’s some bat-to-ball skill issues right? RIGHT?

Wrong. Through the first few weeks of Triple-A play, Martinez is running an overall contact rate of 77% (very good), with a preposterous 90% contact rate within the zone. That is a unicorn combination of outstanding contact with elite quality of contact. If there’s an Achilles heel, it might be passivity. Martinez' overall swing rate is down significantly. Additionally, he doesn't swing much in zone (around 15th percentile). One wonders if his outstanding bat-to-ball metrics will be eroded at the major league level by pitchers challenging him more in the strike zone. 

It’s hard to know exactly what to make of these numbers, in terms of both stickiness and general interpretation. After all, how often does a career organizational prospect go from essentially off the radar to producing numbers that would place him among the elite in MLB in a particular category, even over the course of a year and a half? I don’t know if I can think of a good example. It's also worth noting that when Martinez became a minor-league free agent (briefly) this fall, no team rushed in to offer him a big-league deal, or even a split contract. That would have been quite a gamble, even after his very strong second half last year in Biloxi, but the Brewers signed Blake Perkins to such a deal a few years ago. They do happen. They didn't materialize for Martinez; that's why he's still in the organization.

Nevertheless, there’s enough of a track record of minor-league success (even without the accompanying recognition) that he warrants week-to-week scrutiny from anyone who enjoys prospecting. If Martinez keeps it turned up to 11, he’s going to find his way to Milwaukee in the not-too-distant future.

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[TURBO]

He's going to deserve his shot at some point.  The way Hoskins is looking, that shot could happen any day as far as I'm concerned.

[Austin Tatious]

Not to mention his insane ability to stretch out on throws to first. 

Also, how many 6’6 first basemen with that impressive physique have we seen who can run?  And play center?   He’s like a mythical creature.

Heard he’s got a great, positive personality too. 

[Brian]

16 hours ago, TURBO said:

He's going to deserve his shot at some point.  The way Hoskins is looking, that shot could happen any day as far as I'm concerned.

Barring injury,  I wouldn't expect much of anything to happen until at least around the All Star break.  Don't forget Martinez was in AA last year so we need more than 12 games to look at him in AAA.

We also have Jake Bauers on the team to think about and he is a lefty hitter just like Martinez. Rhys is a right handed hitter. Murphy likes that more than I do and so did Counsell. 

[Joseph Zarr]

The actual time to start really paying attention to EMJ was the summer of 2023. Is this the extreme representation of trends he set in motion nearly two years ago? Likely so. I'm just elated he is finally getting national recognition - he's deserved it well before this week. What I'm getting at is he has been showcasing facets of this run consistently over that entire span. His contact rate and ability to barrel the ball (as I've said on many many occasions) is the best in the system - it was trending that way and has now been that way for well over a year. Where he has really improved over the last four years is the contact rate in the zone. I've spoken to this on numerous occasions in reports and in the Minor League forum so I won't belabor it here. His rise to notoriety in the first month of the season also validates my own long-standing opinion: prospect rankings just rarely ever matter. Where was RHP Chad Patrick ranked? How's he doing? Where was RHP Shane Smith ranked? How is he doing? And on and on. The rankings are fun for fans to get to know their team but there are always players worthy of more accolades who fall beyond that arbitrarily coveted Top 30 list. Come to think of it, where was INF Josh Adamczewski ranked before ST this year? And on and on and on... 

[igor67]

Is some possible explanation that being as tall as he is delayed him a bit both in coordinating the swing, and refining control of the bigger strike zone? It is certainly prudent to get some more time in AAA and see how he adjusts to their adjustments. 

[biedergb]

7 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

The rankings are fun for fans to get to know their team but there are always players worthy of more accolades who fall beyond that arbitrarily coveted Top 30 list.

Good point, but in general the top prospect lists do have a higher rate of success than those off the list, but the key point of future MLB starters or even stars do not only come from these highly publicized lists. We will see important players for the Brewers who are not in our top10-20 lists, or arrive late on the lists just as they ascend to the upper levels/bigs. Like a Brandon Woodruff who was not on lists until he burst on in 2016-2017.

So it is similar to like a 6th round QB going to have HOF careers, or late round skaters or goalies becoming HOFers, among many others. But the 1st/2nd rounds of NFL and NHL draft produce more top talent, just like more of the top talent in MLB comes from those lists. But we see every year key players or pieces who come from relative obscurity to become bona fide MLBers.

[Playing Catch]

27 minutes ago, igor67 said:

Is some possible explanation that being as tall as he is delayed him a bit both in coordinating the swing, and refining control of the bigger strike zone? It is certainly prudent to get some more time in AAA and see how he adjusts to their adjustments. 

IIRC, he credits his own maturation into a professional. Like, he simply decided to start taking things more seriously, and to listen to his coaches/try to improve.

Or am I imagining that interview?

[Brian]

21 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

IIRC, he credits his own maturation into a professional. Like, he simply decided to start taking things more seriously, and to listen to his coaches/try to improve.

Or am I imagining that interview?

Here is the interview. 

Our Esquina (@ouresquina) • Instagram 連續短片

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30 likes, 1 comments - ouresquina 於 March 17, 2025 : "Ernesto Martinez Jr talks about what is clicking for him this spring training!".

 

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, Brian said:

Barring injury,  I wouldn't expect much of anything to happen until at least around the All Star break.  Don't forget Martinez was in AA last year so we need more than 12 games to look at him in AAA.

We also have Jake Bauers on the team to think about and he is a lefty hitter just like Martinez. Rhys is a right handed hitter. Murphy likes that more than I do and so did Counsell. 

Being in AA last year means nothing.  Last year was not the first year this kid started to show something.  We are looking at far more than a 12-15 game sample here.

Jake Bauers?  What is there to think about.  We know what we have in him, yet we continue to roster him.  I have not one doubt in my mind, not a single one, that Martinez can offer a lot more than Jake Bauers.

I can think of only one reason not to have Martinez on this roster currently, and that would be because I don't see regular at bats.  I can't see the organization playing him in front of our 22 million dollar paper weight Rhys Hoskins,  If he stays at AAA until we finally figure out that we can use him on the big squad, at least he continues to get regular at bats there...

EMJ deserves his shot, and I hope we give it to him, especially if our issue at 1B continues.  We literally have nothing to lose in giving him regular at bats to see what we have.

[ARobsBrewCrew]

I remember seeing flashes of this version of EMJ even as far back as 2019 with the Rocky Mountain Vibes, but he truly is a testament of how taking things slow with some players can pay off.  While players like Chourio and Made are the obviously exception, I hate the fact that rushing top prospects through the minors has become the norm.  I truly believe it ruins a lot of talented players the way some organizations (Angels, Padres, etc.) push these youngsters.  Some players take time to develop, but when they arrive they are much more polished and ready to contribute. 

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, ARobsBrewCrew said:

I remember seeing flashes of this version of EMJ even as far back as 2019 with the Rocky Mountain Vibes, but he truly is a testament of how taking things slow with some players can pay off.  While players like Chourio and Made are the obviously exception, I hate the fact that rushing top prospects through the minors has become the norm.  I truly believe it ruins a lot of talented players the way some organizations (Angels, Padres, etc.) push these youngsters.  Some players take time to develop, but when they arrive they are much more polished and ready to contribute. 

The thing with Ernesto is in terms of actual PA by each level he hasn't moved through the system very slowly. He just missed a minor-league season because of COVID and hadn't been able to stay healthy.

2017 to 2019 - 530 PA of rookie ball (would be a lot now but pre-2020 with more rookie ball levels was pretty normal)

2020 - COVID

2021 - 311 PA at A

2022 - 102 PA between A+ and rookie ball (injury riddled season)

2023 - 394 PA between A+ and AA

2024 - 457 PA at AA

2025 - 49 PA at AAA

All together this is how his minor league PA path ignoring rehab stints

Rookie - 530 PA

A - 311 PA

A+ - 347 PA

AA - 581 PA

AAA - 49 PA

Ernesto has 1843 professional PA. Christopher Morel who was from the same IFA class as Ernesto has 2998 professional PA.

 

[Team Canada]

On 4/15/2025 at 3:39 PM, TURBO said:

The way Hoskins is looking, that shot could happen any day as far as I'm concerned.

Hoskins's hot streak is quickly raising his season stats to a respectable level, so let's not hold our breath.

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, Team Canada said:

Hoskins's hot streak is quickly raising his season stats to a respectable level, so let's not hold our breath.

True...

[Brian]

Hoskins will be ok this season IMHO.

[ARobsBrewCrew]

6 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

The thing with Ernesto is in terms of actual PA by each level he hasn't moved through the system very slowly. He just missed a minor-league season because of COVID and hadn't been able to stay healthy.

2017 to 2019 - 530 PA of rookie ball (would be a lot now but pre-2020 with more rookie ball levels was pretty normal)

2020 - COVID

2021 - 311 PA at A

2022 - 102 PA between A+ and rookie ball (injury riddled season)

2023 - 394 PA between A+ and AA

2024 - 457 PA at AA

2025 - 49 PA at AAA

All together this is how his minor league PA path ignoring rehab stints

Rookie - 530 PA

A - 311 PA

A+ - 347 PA

AA - 581 PA

AAA - 49 PA

Ernesto has 1843 professional PA. Christopher Morel who was from the same IFA class as Ernesto has 2998 professional PA.

 

I was referring more to his age rather than anything.  They have been very conservative with his promotions throughout his career.  Teams don’t hesitate to have a prospect skip a level (or multiple levels) these days.  While there were definitely plenty of injury concerns along the way and he hasn’t always been quite this polished, he could certainly have been promoted to full-season ball in 2019, to Wisconsin in 2021, to Biloxi earlier than he was, and to Nashville at any point last year.  I honestly hadn’t broken it down by PA’s so that gives me a fresh perspective about it.  All things considered, I just like the way the organization has handled him, allowing him to mature as a player and not A.) giving up on him as another failed big-time international FA in his rookie ball days or B.) seeing him start to come into his own, hitting the gas, and burning him out the way many prospects have been recently.  I hope people are starting to realize that, despite a slightly advanced age, he is absolutely every bit of a top prospect as any other player in the system.  

[Kozlowski Klub]

We needs to prove it in a larger sample size in AAA, but with that being said come June if he is still putting up insane numbers I think he is going to get his chance. He already might be a better option than Bauers but I would rather have him getting everyday AB's in AAA for now 

[Brewer77]

I’d love to see him get a shot in the big leagues tomorrow, but there just aren’t enough ABs to go around and make it worthwhile for his development. Wait for someone to get banged up or until he’s accumulated a few months of AAA ABs before adding him to the 40 man.