When do we talk about a Misiorowski extension?

[BrewerFan]

We already have the Yankees, Dodgers fans, the Giants, Cubs...all joking(sorta) about how good Mis is going to look in their uniforms when he's 30 years old. Without an extension, we all know it's likely to be sooner than that if he's anything close to the pitcher we've seen thus far. 

Of course, we ALL know that 3 2/3 IP, 6BB 7 ER game is coming. He's not prime Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax(or whatever other great) right out of the gate, so there will be some bumps along the way.

That said... he's got very few peers in this game in terms of pure stuff. Jacob deGrom was the BEST case scenario from the time we drafted him until now. The best case scenarios are almost ALWAYS just...unrealistic, but that's how we do it. You squint, picture the best possible version and development and see what type of player he can become. Cooper Pratt is a RHed Gunnar Henderson, Chourio is Ronald Acuna Jr, so on and so forth.

But while I don't think Misiorowski is going to be able to continue to just fire half his Fastballs by Hitters at 100MPH and just make hitters look foolish, I do think he's a special talent(that feels like an understatement at this point). Hell, he almost makes the deGrom comp seem feasible(minus deGrom's command, but I'm not expecting deGrom, 

Pro-You get cost certainty, you give Mis some financial security, he's young enough that he could still get a massive contract at the end.

Cons-Injury. It's a pitcher, it's invariably injury. Is it "just" TJ? Is it a shoulder? I'd also mention that Burnes and Woodruff have both suffered injuries toward the end of team control or in Burnes case, the year immediately upon signing.  

This kid just turned 23 years old. I feel like 8 years at 70M, 10M signing bonus+2 option years at say...35M per year with a 5-10M buyout. That'd bring the GTD money to 8/80M.

You could add bonuses. His salary goes up 2.5M per year if he wins a Cy Young, 2M if he finishes top 3, 1.5 for a top 5....something like that. 

It's a salary that is clearly not cheap for the Brewers, but it's NOT a contract that would be some albatross. 

So there's some reason for him to sign, some reason for him not to. But I picture a Paul Skenes scenario. The Pirates got him last-year...and they're already talking about how it makes more sense to trade him and start a rebuild than to build around him and try and compete. 

 

To me, this would come down to Misiorowski...obviously. Does he want to risk that he'll stay healthy? And argument could be made, even if were to deal with injuries, teams would look at his pure stuff and spend in hopes that he'll stay healthy. And if the first two starts are any indication, he could become a FA at 30 and command 40-45M a year(in today's money, 8 years time, that'll likely be 50-60M a year). 

But never having to worry about money again is a helluva consolation prize and it's the only way the Brewers can have an ace atop their rotation past his service time. 

 

 

I'd say it's worth making the offer. And hell, I'm probably short, 8 years 100M with 2 option years is probably more likely, but...even then you get Chourio, Made, Pena, Pratt, Wilken, Adams, Lara, Turang., Quero to anchor the lineup(plus a dozen other options which will only increase with the draft) and you have your foundational CFer.

And you get Misiorowski, Henderson, Letson, Knoch, Hardin, Rodriguez, Patrick, Priester... and a dozen other young arms working their way up(KC Hunt and it's just too long to list everyone). But you have that foundational Gm1 pitcher. 

 

I'm sure people will say I'm jumping the gun because of 2 measly starts and 11 no-hit innings, but that's not it.  When he can throw with a BIT better command and he can throw something that sits around 84-85 so he can really change velocity... what the hell is THAT gonna look like? Just anything where he can change speeds a bit better. 90-92MPH Change ups, 92-94 MPH CB, a mid 90s slider and a 101 FB...it's a lot of fun, but he's STILL got room to grow and he'll still suffer growing pains. 

 

 

****Speaking of Paul Skenes, what if this kid goes wins the damn ROY? Now that's changing the equation even more. Still...now is the time to make the offer. This season. Maybe over the ASB, maybe after the season(assuming he doesn't win the ROY). 

 

-And again, I know this is early, but...that's the only time you can get it done. I'm ready to sign Jesus Made to a 12 year 100M dollar deal now and let him spend 3 more years in the minors! Do the same with Pena, Pratt and Quero! 8 years 50M for the rest of them!

 

Thoughts?

(And sorry, not trying to turn this into a...countdown on his team control, but...from the first time we call him up, that's just the reality of it.)

[adambr2]

I suspect that we approach all our young starters as they come up with the opportunity for them to take life changing money now in exchange for taking a discount on their potential future earnings. When that is, I’m not certain — don’t know if we have anything like that yet for Miz, but I would never be opposed. It makes good business sense, and if something bad happens, it’s not franchise crippling. It’s like diversifying your portfolio. 

Burnes bet on himself, and won. Peralta took the early money, and it ended up being a great deal for us. No idea what the dollars would look like for Miz, but I imagine the structure would be the same as we often see in these deal, like with Chourio — money up front, and as many club options as we can tack onto the end.

Just as a reminder — if we followed this for every young stud, we’d still be paying Keston Hiura (but it wouldn’t be crippling). 

I’d rather do this with every young potential star and take the risk that some won’t pan out, than venture too far out in free agency. Some just won’t do it — depends on the player, the agent, and their priorities. But it’s always worth the inquiry.

[Jopal78]

I’m sure it is now table stakes for MLB teams to offer their premier pre-arbitration eligible players contract extensions. Likewise, before putting anything on paper,  front offices also know which players would be receptive to the concept and which ones intend to go year to year. 
 

I hope they give Misiorowski more than 12 innings in the majors before crossing those bridges.  

[adambr2]

3 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I’m sure it is now table stakes for MLB teams to offer their premier pre-arbitration eligible players contract extensions. Likewise, before putting anything on paper,  front offices also know which players would be receptive to the concept and which ones intend to go year to year. 
 

I hope they give Misiorowski more than 12 innings in the majors before crossing those bridges.  

I mean … Chourio hadn’t had one MLB plate appearance when he got his. So there’s precedent not to wait and see.

Sure, you gain more certainty if you wait until the end of the season with Miz. But if he’s lights out all season and wins ROTY, he’s probably more inclined to play the long game and bet on himself than he would be right now.

[mudbutt]

International players are also more likely to be interested in early extensions since not much of their signing bonus actually goes to the player.

[jay87shot]

Ashby and Peralta had a little over a year each when they were extended. With the injury risk of pitching I would say that around this time next year would sound good to me. I like the idea of like 6 years and than have a multi-tiered option system. Say the option for the team is 3/60 but for every top 5 Cy young finish the option goes up 4 million a year. That would give us a chance to extend him and Misi some piece of mind and incentive to do well. I think Julio Rodriguez did something like that but more complicated.

[Playing Catch]

My first instinct is to not extend pitchers, ever.

But I've seen how the Ashby and Peralta extensions have worked out, and feel like if the worst-case scenario is Ashby, and the best-case scenario is Peralta, than maybe I need to check my instincts, because getting one or two extra years of control ALSO mitigates the risk of UCL surgery torpedoing an entire contract, as you get a couple of years to heal. It isn't merely the team investing in the player, but it is the player investing and trusting the development path the team can offer.

I think if I were a pitcher --- even one as gifted as Misiorowski, that I would love an extension for the same reason. It takes some pressure off of pushing through minor injuries in order to maximize one's next contract. It allows one to develop (gotta keep throwing that changeup!), without the pressure of performing for one's next contract.

Extensions for pitchers like those three often make sense for both parties, as it behooves both parties to do what's best for the pitcher AND the team. When a guy is going year-to-year, both he and the team may be reluctant to choose the best healing/recovery options in favor of staying on the field.

[Jopal78]

6 hours ago, adambr2 said:

I mean … Chourio hadn’t had one MLB plate appearance when he got his. So there’s precedent not to wait and see.

Sure, you gain more certainty if you wait until the end of the season with Miz. But if he’s lights out all season and wins ROTY, he’s probably more inclined to play the long game and bet on himself than he would be right now.

You really think he would doubt himself now, yet after maybe 15 to 18  games he’s suddenly going to decide to “bet on himself“?

As I wrote above, I bet you $100 the Brewers will know soon or already know if an early extension is a concept Misiorowski will even consider. If his team indicated he would then It becomes a matter of details and desire. 
 

If it were me, I’d probably take a wait-and-see approach of the high velocity is going to shred his elbow before his career gets on track. Look no further than Robert Gasser as someone who came up, pitched in incredibly well, and almost immediately hurt their elbow. 

[Team Canada]

It seems to me you almost have to assume every pitcher is going to blow a UCL and factor that into your cost calculations accordingly, rather than be shocked when it happens.

[Jopal78]

55 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

It seems to me you almost have to assume every pitcher is going to blow a UCL and factor that into your cost calculations accordingly, rather than be shocked when it happens.

Yes, that’s one reason why the pre-arbitration extensions rarely occur. 

[brewcrewdue80]

He's already made extension impossible after his 2 starts.  The extension talks would begin upon his 1st long term injury. Until then, he should continue year to year. The prices in Arb for pitchers like him, increase yearly. Same as FA salaries. He's already a Millionaire and insured. Different story on Chourio, Freddy, even Ashby.

[Redd Vencher]

23 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

He's already made extension impossible after his 2 starts.  The extension talks would begin upon his 1st long term injury. Until then, he should continue year to year. The prices in Arb for pitchers like him, increase yearly. Same as FA salaries. He's already a Millionaire and insured. Different story on Chourio, Freddy, even Ashby.

He hasn't made an extension impossible after his 2 starts. Spencer Strider owns the largest pre arb extension for a SP that I can find. (6 years $75 M + 7th year option maxing out at $92 M) That was signed after his rookie season in 2022.

[brewcrewdue80]

Strider's final 3 years are 20, 20, and 22 million with 22Mil option or 5 Mil buyout.

At what point has the Brewers ever paid 20 million or more in a season to a starting pitcher? That's what keeps him from signing an extension. One TJ shelves for 12-15 months.  I don't see Milw risking potentially 40 mil on 2 seasons where Miz could be out for the playoffs both season.

[MadThinker88]

Just FYI - if Jacob M finishes in top 3 of the NL RoY voting this year he gets credit for a full year of service time in 2025 (not just the time of call up to the end of the year).  That was what happened with Tanner Bibee in CLE back in 2023.

IMHO - both sides need to know if he finishes the year in the top 3 of RoY voting (or not) as that impacts the math and how Free Agent much time is being bought out with any extension.  Additionally you also want to see how much "prize pool" money Jacob gets.  One of the reasons OF Steven Kwan has declined extension overtures in CLE is he has gotten extra monies each year due to winning Gold Gloves and making the All-Star team.

Working in MKE favor - the upcoming end to the CBA.  There have been rumblings that  contract structure and contract limits could be happening with the next CBA (and likely work stoppage).  Some players (like the aforementioned Bibee) have signed pre-arb extension deals to have the security in place before this CBA expires..

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, MadThinker88 said:

Just FYI - if Jacob M finishes in top 3 of the NL RoY voting this year he gets credit for a full year of service time in 2025 (not just the time of call up to the end of the year).  That was what happened with Tanner Bibee in CLE back in 2023.

IMHO - both sides need to know if he finishes the year in the top 3 of RoY voting (or not) as that impacts the math and how Free Agent much time is being bought out with any extension.  Additionally you also want to see how much "prize pool" money Jacob gets.  One of the reasons OF Steven Kwan has declined extension overtures in CLE is he has gotten extra monies each year due to winning Gold Gloves and making the All-Star team.

Working in MKE favor - the upcoming end to the CBA.  There have been rumblings that  contract structure and contract limits could be happening with the next CBA (and likely work stoppage).  Some players (like the aforementioned Bibee) have signed pre-arb extension deals to have the security in place before this CBA expires..

It's Top 2 finish not Top 3. NL rookie class is very weak but Misiorowski is probably only going to throw at most 75 innings for the Brewers this year due to his innings limit. Unless he keeps a sub 2.00 ERA, he probably won't finish Top 2.

[rickh150]

No way they give him anything more than A Peralta like deal….too much risk with arms. Paying him about nothing thru 2028 looks good too. 

[BrewerFan]

On 6/23/2025 at 11:52 AM, Jopal78 said:

If it were me, I’d probably take a wait-and-see approach of the high velocity is going to shred his elbow before his career gets on track. Look no further than Robert Gasser as someone who came up, pitched in incredibly well, and almost immediately hurt their elbow. 

Gasser is a soft tossing lefty.

But sure, you should probably assume a pitcher will have a TJ. 

The Brewers seem as though they've been better than just about anyone else at keeping their young arms healthy and acclimating them to the stresses and rigors of pitching than anyone, but sure. 

How long do you wait and see though? Paul Skenes is probably already going to be 200M+ to extend. 

There's a risk with every pitcher, every position. 

 

On 6/22/2025 at 9:12 PM, adambr2 said:

I’d rather do this with every young potential star and take the risk that some won’t pan out, than venture too far out in free agency. Some just won’t do it — depends on the player, the agent, and their priorities. But it’s always worth the inquiry.

This is definitely where I am as well. As you said, Hiura would be costing us money right now. Hardly devastating...but it'd hurt. 

Others who I'd have done this for, Hader, Williams, Contreras, there's nothing saying you can't trade them still at some point...and I'd assume we offered at least Hader. 

Turang...might be the only guy I'd sign right now. Maybe Frelick, I love the guy and how he plays, but he's a corner OFer with little power so it'd really have to be like 7/35 TO of 10M? Unlikely he's going to take that deal.

You can always say it's not smart for the player...but look at Hiura. You can talk about the risk to the team...but look at what FA's cost. Paul Skenes(I don't think Mis is Paul Skenes, but...it's hard to find another young pitcher as a comp)...he'll likely get 400M? That's why you get a discount. You guarantee money and they sacrifice two years of service time.

 

6 hours ago, rickh150 said:

No way they give him anything more than A Peralta like deal….too much risk with arms

No way...they pay him more than a Peralta like deal?

I'd almost guarantee they'd pay several times more than what Peralta got RIGHT NOW. Peralta was GTD 15.5M. You really think there's no way the Brewers would start the negotiations higher than that range?

Ashby signed a "Peralta like" deal...he got more, but that's almost insulting and kinda a silly point to start. 

I was thinking you wait until after the season when he's experienced some ups and downs and you talk about a 6-year 60M extension with 2TOs and incentives in there. 

There is risk to injury... and there's risk to inaction. The risk to injury is being really exaggerated here. He has a TJ, he misses a year...like most pitchers and he's back. And that's IF it happens before he's ~31/32.

 

[BrewerFan]

On 6/23/2025 at 10:51 AM, Playing Catch said:

My first instinct is to not extend pitchers, ever.

But I've seen how the Ashby and Peralta extensions have worked out, and feel like if the worst-case scenario is Ashby, and the best-case scenario is Peralta, than maybe I need to check my instincts, because getting one or two extra years of control ALSO mitigates the risk of UCL surgery torpedoing an entire contract, as you get a couple of years to heal. It isn't merely the team investing in the player, but it is the player investing and trusting the development path the team can offer.

I think if I were a pitcher --- even one as gifted as Misiorowski, that I would love an extension for the same reason. It takes some pressure off of pushing through minor injuries in order to maximize one's next contract. It allows one to develop (gotta keep throwing that changeup!), without the pressure of performing for one's next contract.

Extensions for pitchers like those three often make sense for both parties, as it behooves both parties to do what's best for the pitcher AND the team. When a guy is going year-to-year, both he and the team may be reluctant to choose the best healing/recovery options in favor of staying on the field.

I get that...and to be fair, it'd be much riskier than Peralta or Ashby. Both were signed when they were really iffy about either starting. Peralta has been a great deal, Ashby not a very good one(still has time). 

You'd be almost certainly be taking a much bigger risk here... so that instinct may be correct. It'll depend on Misiorowski's asking price. We'll likely never hear unless it happens. 

Skenes almost certainly won't sign because he got...what, 10M in a signing bonus? That's 5M take home

Quite a bit different when you get ~2.3 and take home a little over 1M...the risk could either make it a great deal or it could make it a drag on the payroll. 

I'm betting on that arm, that movement and the Brewers ability to handle pitchers(and get them to unlock that pitch that improves their whole repertoire. A Change he can throw in the mid 80s in his case could make everything else look that much better...when he comes back to reality). 

 

In fact, if it were up to me, I'd sign just about every pitching scout, coach and everyone in the front office to about 2X the average salary and a looong term contract! But we won't do that, so we'll focus on the actual players. 

 

For the time being, I'll just appreciate having him for 5-6 more years and then dread the "it's time to trade Mis," but that's 2030's problem I guess!

[adambr2]

For any dissenters, I’d like to make this point:

After he signed, Aaron Ashby missed all of 2023 with a shoulder injury, had shoulder surgery, then had oblique issues, and still nobody is complaining about his contract. I’m glad he’s signed to it - I’m glad we have him.

Obviously the dollars and structure aren’t going to look the same — but the point is that you do these deals and bad things happen, you can still operate as a small market team. It doesn’t really hurt. 

[Brian]

The Brewers murky world of contract manipulation. Professional sports is a business, and teams are often focused on maximizing profits, which means paying players as little as possible. 

https://reviewingthebrew.com/this-could-be-the-real-reason-the-brewers-waited-so-long-to-promote-jacob-misiorowski-01jy9s82rgrm 

[SF70]

They can offer an extension that protects from the TJ that Misiorowski will eventually need. 

It adds a year at a set salary when he misses the year rehabbing from his TJ. Numerous extensions have this clause written in.

[endaround]

1 hour ago, Brian said:

The Brewers murky world of contract manipulation. Professional sports is a business, and teams are often focused on maximizing profits, which means paying players as little as possible. 

https://reviewingthebrew.com/this-could-be-the-real-reason-the-brewers-waited-so-long-to-promote-jacob-misiorowski-01jy9s82rgrm 

I don't doubt the exact timing was influenced by Super 2 concerns, but that was more well "let's wait another week"  instead of "he should be up in April but we'll keep him down until June". Misiorowski still has inning concerns and was having serious control issues last year.  Something clicked this season. There is still a chance he get's sent down for a bit in August to keep him stretched out but with severe limits on how long he pitches.

[Jopal78]

9 hours ago, adambr2 said:

For any dissenters, I’d like to make this point:

After he signed, Aaron Ashby missed all of 2023 with a shoulder injury, had shoulder surgery, then had oblique issues, and still nobody is complaining about his contract. I’m glad he’s signed to it - I’m glad we have him.

Obviously the dollars and structure aren’t going to look the same — but the point is that you do these deals and bad things happen, you can still operate as a small market team. It doesn’t really hurt. 

Like I said before it is table stakes now in MLB to approach premier pre-arbitration eligible talent about extensions to get cost certainty in the future and maybe even additional control in exchange for a larger salary guarantee up front. This is especially so for the teams without 250-300 million dollar payrolls.

The Brewers more likely than not already know if a pre-arbitration extension is something Misiorowski is interested in conceptually. (For all we know he may have already shot the concept down).

You’re right there probably isn’t much downside to doing it if both parties are interested. But even if both sides want to do it, the devil is in the details. 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

They can offer an extension that protects from the TJ that Misiorowski will eventually need. 

It adds a year at a set salary when he misses the year rehabbing from his TJ. Numerous extensions have this clause written in.

So eliminate any motivation he has to sign a long term-contract?

No, of course you don't do this. 

And again, people are really jumping the gun with how inevitable that injury is. I remember the same being said about Hader.

Randy Johnson is probably a good comp for a young Mis. For the Brewers, overall, they've been pretty damn good about preventing TJ by not abusing their starters. 

 

Also, just gonna leave this here. This doesn't even touch on his last start where Pitching Ninja had some funny posts about Misiorowski. 

I do suspect after a bad outing people will be far less eager, But that's the only assumption we should make. He's not going to keep up this pace. 

 

[BrewerFan]

10 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Like I said before it is table stakes now in MLB to approach premier pre-arbitration eligible talent about extensions to get cost certainty in the future and maybe even additional control in exchange for a larger salary guarantee up front. This is especially so for the teams without 250-300 million dollar payrolls.

The Brewers more likely than not already know if a pre-arbitration extension is something Misiorowski is interested in conceptually. (For all we know he may have already shot the concept down).

You’re right there probably isn’t much downside to doing it if both parties are interested. But even if both sides want to do it, the devil is in the details. 

Actually, you started out by saying, "I’m sure it is now table stakes for MLB teams to offer their premier pre-arbitration eligible players contract extensions," which infers you're guessing(which...of coure you are as we have no idea) and NOW you're just stating it as a fact.   

Either way, I'm talking about the Brewers doing it early. 

Now with Chourio, I said I thought they'd do it almost immediately when the MLB season started...I didn't think it'd come before the season started, but do the Dodgers do it? The Yankees?

A lot of these teams either don't or they wait until a player has established themselves as elite. 

We made no offer to Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Contreras...according to all of them. 

 

SOME teams do it. The Braves certainly do. Cleveland from time to time. Beyond that, VERY few teams would do this a few months in to team control. 

I would personally be more aggressive and far exceed the Peralta, Ashby offers as... he's just such a unique talent...