Collins, Mears to KC for Angel Zerpa

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

12 hours ago, trwi7 said:

Baddoo's pedigree is literally having a rookie year where he hit about as well as Collins and has hit like 2025 Joey Ortiz since.  That's not a pedigree I want anywhere near starting for my favorite major league team.  It's bad enough we have one Joey Ortiz, we certainly don't need another in a corner outfield spot.

He's a 2nd round pick (Baddoo) vs. a 9th round pick (Collins). That's the pedigree I'm talking about.

Alls I'm saying is, I think arguing over whether you'd rather have Collins or Baddoo is a little po-tato po-tah-to. One guy had his good year four years ago. One guy is coming off of his good year. One guy is a little more toolsy and profiled better upon being drafted, the other guy came out of nowhere. Again, totally fine if you'd much rather have Collins. I just don't see anything special there. In a lot of ways, I'll feel great for Collins if he proves that take wrong. He's a good story!

I'm also with @sveumrules and a little higher on Black than some and definitely think Lara could be a big part of this club's future. All of that is why I think this is a good gamble for the Crew (which recognizes that gambles involve risk). 

[Playing Catch]

I just mentioned this in the Transactions Forum, but I'll repeat it here.

I would love to acquire another clear starting-caliber outfielder. But I don't think it is important to acquire one before July. It may be the easiest position to acquire at the deadline, and the Brewers could use a couple more months to decide which prospects to promote/keep/trade away.

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, trwi7 said:

And fangraphs has him at 0.1WAR in that same span.   On top of this, shouldn't we try to be, I don't know, improving?  Collins may very well turn back into a nobody but his actual contribution did happen last season.  That should be our baseline, trying to improve on what every player provided last year.  We have now removed one of our most productive hitters from a lineup that needs more productive hitters and currently our replacements are a guy who can't stay on the field, a guy who has 0.1 WAR since he's decent rookie season four years ago and a couple other guys who can't hit.  This is on top of the 3 starters we already have who were in the 8th percentile or worse of xwOBA on contact last year.

Sure, we should try to improve - especially at our weak spots. 

So, if we stayed with Collins, do you think he would improve from 2025? Personally, I expect his ceiling to be around a 750-800 OPS with good defense.  But his floor is probably a 600-650 OPS.  So a lot more potential to go down than up.  It would seem that the Brewers agree with that... hence the trade. 

They basically took two players that they didn't put on the playoff roster and had no options and turned them into two very similar players with options. 

Not every move is an obvious upward improvement.  Sometimes you move sideways so you can move up with other moves. 

Similar to last year's 3B... we had several different people on the roster as options and ultimately found the improvement from one of them.  But not many people were thrilled about Durbin when we traded for him.  Sometimes you just need several backup plans when you can't go pay for a sure-fire improvement. 

Conversely, how many people thought Hoskins was a great FA signing when we got him....and how many people think it was a good deal now? 

[owbc]

1 hour ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

He's a 2nd round pick (Baddoo) vs. a 9th round pick (Collins). That's the pedigree I'm talking about.

Alls I'm saying is, I think arguing over whether you'd rather have Collins or Baddoo is a little po-tato po-tah-to. One guy had his good year four years ago. One guy is coming off of his good year. One guy is a little more toolsy and profiled better upon being drafted, the other guy came out of nowhere. Again, totally fine if you'd much rather have Collins. I just don't see anything special there. In a lot of ways, I'll feel great for Collins if he proves that take wrong. He's a good story!

I'm also with @sveumrules and a little higher on Black than some and definitely think Lara could be a big part of this club's future. All of that is why I think this is a good gamble for the Crew (which recognizes that gambles involve risk). 

This is an easy decision for the Brewers FO when it comes to depth pieces. Sell the guy who just had his good year and buy the guy who had it 4 years ago. 

[TURBO]

12 hours ago, liveforoctober said:

If you had to guess right now how many at bats Baddoo is going to get for the Brewers in 2026 - what would your guess be?

Probably too many...

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, trwi7 said:

If we're going this route, we should probably replace Frelick who had an xBA of .256 and xSLG of .337

This actually is a decent point that probably hasn't been talked about enough. Frelick is younger, more well rounded and has more pedigree than Collins but like Collins he significantly overperformed his underlying numbers last season. We should probably be expecting some regression with the bat next season for Frelick.

[homer]

41 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

This actually is a decent point that probably hasn't been talked about enough. Frelick is younger, more well rounded and has more pedigree than Collins but like Collins he significantly overperformed his underlying numbers last season. We should probably be expecting some regression with the bat next season for Frelick.

Frelick has 87th percentile sprint speed so he could very likely have a high BABIP and outperform his xBA/SLG for a few years. Collins is 58th %.

[trwi7]

2 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Sure, we should try to improve - especially at our weak spots. 

So, if we stayed with Collins, do you think he would improve from 2025? Personally, I expect his ceiling to be around a 750-800 OPS with good defense.  But his floor is probably a 600-650 OPS.  So a lot more potential to go down than up.  It would seem that the Brewers agree with that... hence the trade. 

They basically took two players that they didn't put on the playoff roster and had no options and turned them into two very similar players with options. 

Not every move is an obvious upward improvement.  Sometimes you move sideways so you can move up with other moves. 

Similar to last year's 3B... we had several different people on the roster as options and ultimately found the improvement from one of them.  But not many people were thrilled about Durbin when we traded for him.  Sometimes you just need several backup plans when you can't go pay for a sure-fire improvement. 

Conversely, how many people thought Hoskins was a great FA signing when we got him....and how many people think it was a good deal now? 

So if we're going the "bunch of options" route, wouldn't it make sense to keep our best option from last year and if he falls back, you go with a different option?  Especially since all we got in return is a modest bullpen upgrade to what is already a strength of the team at best and that assumes our pitching lab can fix Zerpa.

[wiguy94]

40 minutes ago, homer said:

Frelick has 87th percentile sprint speed so he could very likely have a high BABIP and outperform his xBA/SLG for a few years. Collins is 58th %.

Sprint speed is factored in to xBA on topped and weakly hit balls.

[CheezWizHed]

27 minutes ago, trwi7 said:

So if we're going the "bunch of options" route, wouldn't it make sense to keep our best option from last year and if he falls back, you go with a different option?  Especially since all we got in return is a modest bullpen upgrade to what is already a strength of the team at best and that assumes our pitching lab can fix Zerpa.

As I said before I'm not necessarily on board with the trade because I was a Collins fan.  I'm just trying to discern that the FO is doing with the trade.  Obviously, they feel pretty high on Zerpa (at least higher than Collins) and wanted the flexibility. 

But can't really just this one trade in isolation either... got to see what the rest of the offseason brings.  

[Jim French Stepstool]

5 hours ago, sveumrules said:

 

It's the fourth B though that might have the best chance of pulling his own Collins this year. Let's see, Isaac was a LF only guy, who doesn't have the best wheels but managed to be a positive base runner anyway, and built his offensive game mostly around being overly passive in the box...sounds kind of like Tyler Black? Who's still only 25, two years younger than Collins was last year.

 

A forgottten man in all this, with ABs (as the roster now stands) available & LF almost certainly his best bet defensively. Great point.

Certainly leaning to the LH side in the OF group though, maybe to a fault.

[owbc]

34 minutes ago, trwi7 said:

So if we're going the "bunch of options" route, wouldn't it make sense to keep our best option from last year and if he falls back, you go with a different option?  Especially since all we got in return is a modest bullpen upgrade to what is already a strength of the team at best and that assumes our pitching lab can fix Zerpa.

Winning organizations are proactive, not reactive. We've already predicted that Collins will likely fall back and that our pitching lab can fix Zerpa and made the appropriate move based on that prediction. 

If you wait, then Collins has no value after he falls back and Zerpa may have already figured out whatever it is that we think he can improve on. 

[homer]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Sprint speed is factored in to xBA on topped and weakly hit balls.

Well that's stupid.  😁

[treego14]

2 hours ago, owbc said:

Winning organizations are proactive, not reactive. We've already predicted that Collins will likely fall back and that our pitching lab can fix Zerpa and made the appropriate move based on that prediction. 

If you wait, then Collins has no value after he falls back and Zerpa may have already figured out whatever it is that we think he can improve on. 

Good positive spin!

I hope you're right!

It seems like we are making the smallest-market team move, though ... financially based transaction rather than a transaction to make the team more talented.

I don't blame the Brewers, though.

I blame MLB!

[Roderick]

17 hours ago, treego14 said:

Good positive spin!

I hope you're right!

It seems like we are making the smallest-market team move, though ... financially based transaction rather than a transaction to make the team more talented.

I don't blame the Brewers, though.

I blame MLB!

But if the Brewers can make him a #4 starter, that throws this all out, with Zerpa's years of control.  Big if, but if you believe the GM speak. 

Hauser just got paid $11M for next year to be a #4/#5 starter.

[Playing Catch]

3 hours ago, Roderick said:

But if the Brewers can make him a #4 starter, that throws this all out, with Zerpa's years of control.  Big if, but if you believe the GM speak. 

Hauser just got paid $11M for next year to be a #4/#5 starter.

Yeah, I mean how many of us were confident in Patrick or Henderson at this point a year ago? Or Priester nine months ago?

If the worst-case scenario is that Zerpa is what he is, the Brewers very well could "lose" the trade. But I doubt any of us are concerned that Collins or Mears will perform to such a level that we are gnashing our teeth about the trade years from now. But if they DO make Zerpa into something more, even if it is just as a high-leverage lefty? Well, Zerpa could just turn into the next Arnold masterstroke.

But as Roderick said, this isn't some guarantee that it will work.

[thebruce44]

IMO its stilly to compare Sal to Collins. One is 25 and a first round pick while the other had a breakout year at 27 as a 9th round pick. Besides their height, they are very different "prospects."

[markedman5]

51 minutes ago, thebruce44 said:

IMO its stilly to compare Sal to Collins. One is 25 and a first round pick while the other had a breakout year at 27 as a 9th round pick. Besides their height, they are very different "prospects."

Not to mention one is a gold glove caliber right fielder and one……..is a converted infielder who to his credit became an average left fielder.

As was mentioned above…….I’m not overly confident that this trade will turn out to be a home run……but I’m also not too concerned that this will be one that fans will be regretting for years to come.

It’s the kind of trade the brewers routinely make.

[trwi7]

1 hour ago, thebruce44 said:

IMO its stilly to compare Sal to Collins. One is 25 and a first round pick while the other had a breakout year at 27 as a 9th round pick. Besides their height, they are very different "prospects."

I guess Frelick is more similar to Ryan Braun than he is to Collins since Frelick and Braun are both 1st round picks.

And Frelick was only brought up as an example because all the talk is we got rid of Collins before he falls off and has no value because of his xBA and xSLG.  I merely used Frelick to point out that his xBA and xSLG numbers are also way lower than his actual numbers and nobody is saying we should get rid of him before he regresses.

[thebruce44]

18 minutes ago, trwi7 said:

I guess Frelick is more similar to Ryan Braun than he is to Collins since Frelick and Braun are both 1st round picks.

And Frelick was only brought up as an example because all the talk is we got rid of Collins before he falls off and has no value because of his xBA and xSLG.  I merely used Frelick to point out that his xBA and xSLG numbers are also way lower than his actual numbers and nobody is saying we should get rid of him before he regresses.

This makes more sense than how I initially read the argument. Despite what the advanced stats say for Sal, I could see him adding some power in the next 3 years and eventually hitting 20+ HRs in a season. Not to say the ball jumps off his bat like Braun's, but I would agree he is closer to Braun in tools than Collins.

We have so many solid above average players in their mid 20s, its exciting to see this team continues to develop as these guys get to their 27/28 yo seasons.

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, trwi7 said:

I merely used Frelick to point out that his xBA and xSLG numbers are also way lower than his actual numbers and nobody is saying we should get rid of him before he regresses.

Sal lifts weights in the offseason, so we know his exit velocity will be higher in 2026.

[markedman5]

59 minutes ago, thebruce44 said:

This makes more sense than how I initially read the argument. Despite what the advanced stats say for Sal, I could see him adding some power in the next 3 years and eventually hitting 20+ HRs in a season. Not to say the ball jumps off his bat like Braun's, but I would agree he is closer to Braun in tools than Collins.

We have so many solid above average players in their mid 20s, its exciting to see this team continues to develop as these guys get to their 27/28 yo seasons.

I think he was being facetious in the comparison to Braun……lol

[Scooterfletcher]

1 minute ago, markedman5 said:

I think he was being facetious in the comparison to Braun……lol

No doubt he was being facetious.   Also no doubt Frelick is closer to Braun than Collins, so in being facetious he also did make the more accurate comparison. 

[trwi7]

34 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

No doubt he was being facetious.   Also no doubt Frelick is closer to Braun than Collins, so in being facetious he also did make the more accurate comparison. 

In no possible way Frelick more comparable to Braun as a player other than both being 1st round picks.

[endaround]

54 minutes ago, trwi7 said:

In no possible way Frelick more comparable to Braun as a player other than both being 1st round picks.

Well Harold would pencil them both in at 3B so they have that in common