What's the ideal way things shake out defensively for this team over the next few years?

[RobDeer 45]

With so many quality players on the major league roster and prospects coming up, what's your ideal scenario for the way things shake out defensively?  Do we try to extend Turang or trade him?  Does he ever move to SS?  I'm not educated enough on the prospects.  I love the flexibility we have with all these athletic, up the middle defenders, but we only have so much room!

[Brewcrew82]

Something like this in two years, I think:

C: Quero/Dinges

1B: Burke/Adams

2B: Turang

SS: Pratt

3B: Made

LF: Williams

CF: Chourio

RF: Frelick

[RobDeer 45]

Does Made profile more like a 3B or SS?  Again I haven't dug that deep in to our prospects so I have no clue.  I know it's on the table.  Could he also end up in CF?

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, RobDeer 45 said:

Does Made profile more like a 3B or SS?  Again I haven't dug that deep in to our prospects so I have no clue.  I know it's on the table.  Could he also end up in CF?

Made profiles for the most part as a SS. It's just that he has the power for 3B as well, while Pratt is potentially a 70 grade defender at SS. 

Probably comes down to who makes their debut first between Pratt and Made and whether Pratt hits enough to force Made over to 3B. 

CF I would say should be Chourio's for the foreseeable future. 

[long ball]

How far in the future are you wondering?

Frelick and Turang are mainstays in the line up, but their last season of team control is 2029. Assuming neither is extended, how far in advance of free agency are they traded? Probably somewhere between 1-2 years. 
 

if I had to predict the 2028 opening day line up:

DH Yelich

C Quero and Dinges time share

1B Andrew Fischer

2B Turang

SS Made

3B Peña 

LF Chourio 

CF Lara

RF Frelick

Durbin and Williams as super subs. (Notably absent: Joey Ortiz, Pratt, Burke, Wilken. Probably a mixture of trade, minor league depth, and failure to pan out) 

this is off the cuff and I am not married to this or prepared to defend it :)

[RobDeer 45]

Yes I was kind of thinking next year and the year after type timeline.  Obviously a lot can change in a year or two so going beyond that would be tough.

[TURBO]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Something like this in two years, I think:

C: Quero/Dinges

1B: Burke/Adams

2B: Turang

SS: Pratt

3B: Made

LF: Williams

CF: Chourio

RF: Frelick

Curious where you think Fischer and Wilken would factor in this situation...Not to mention Pena.

Man, we are loaded (but I think we could be better in 2 of the 3 OF spots)  Is it possible that Fischer or Pena get moved to the OF in the future?

[wallus]

Lot of ambugity on the topic here but I will go with this:

LF: Chourio

CF: Mitchell/Lara

RF: Williams

3B: Fischer

SS: Made

2B: Turang

1B: Adams/Burke

C: Quero/Dinges

DH: Yelich

Bench: Above guys and Pratt

[StearnsFTW]

6 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Something like this in two years, I think:

C: Quero/Dinges

1B: Burke/Adams

2B: Turang

SS: Pratt

3B: Made

LF: Williams

CF: Chourio

RF: Frelick

This is pretty close for me.  I'd swap Chourio and Williams in the hope that Williams is a better CF than Chourio. 

 

Also definitely Fischer at 1B for me.

[Jopal78]

Take a look at the Brewers Top prospect list from 2020. Four of their Top 10 never saw the majors (Tristen Lutz, Antoine Kelly,  Eduardo Perez and Herbert Kelly) three made token appearances for the Brewers (Small, Corey Ray, Feliciano), one was traded (Rasmussen) and Turang and Ashby are regulars in Milwaukee.

Point being, unless they are once in a lifetime lucky,  it is an inevitability that some of these prospects will flame out before Milwaukee and some will be flipped for different players, and who plays where will work itself out that way. 

[Brewcrew82]

12 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Take a look at the Brewers Top prospect list from 2020. Four of their Top 10 never saw the majors (Tristen Lutz, Antoine Kelly,  Eduardo Perez and Herbert Kelly) three made token appearances for the Brewers (Small, Turang, Feliciano), one was traded (Rasmussen) and Turang and Ashby are regulars in Milwaukee.

Point being, unless they are once in a lifetime lucky,  it is an inevitability that some of these prospects will flame out before Milwaukee and some will be flipped for different players, and who plays where will work itself out that way. 

It's also a much better farm now than it was in 2020. 

[edfunderburk]

9 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Something like this in two years, I think:

C: Quero/Dinges

1B: Burke/Adams

2B: Turang

SS: Pratt

3B: Made

LF: Williams

CF: Chourio

RF: Frelick

I don’t like Chourio in CF

I like Fischer over Adams 

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

This is pretty close for me.  I'd swap Chourio and Williams in the hope that Williams is a better CF than Chourio. 

 

Also definitely Fischer at 1B for me.

Yeah, I thought about Fischer, but went with Burke and Adams due to them already being in the high minors. 

It's honestly not much of a debate for me in CF. Chourio is a 60 grade CFer with elite range, even if still working on consistency. Nothing I've seen on Williams indicates he's at that level. 

[Brewcrew82]

19 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

I don’t like Chourio in CF

I like Fischer over Adams 

Chourio was among the league leaders in 5 star catches. As Jack Stern said in a recent article, Chourio has elite range and jumps and is the highest potential CF (taking into account his bat). He's 21 and still developing. 

[SeaBass]

9 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Chourio was among the league leaders in 5 star catches. As Jack Stern said in a recent article, Chourio has elite range and jumps and is the highest potential CF (taking into account his bat). He's 21 and still developing. 

I'm curious if there is more or less risk of injury playing in CF as compared to a corner spot? Perhaps Chourio does have the stuff to be an exceptional CF but if someone else can play above average out there and Chourio is in a corner and there's less risk of injury I'd be ok with that. Injuries can happen anytime anywhere but to me, without really knowing, CF seems a little riskier. Maybe it's negligible so that it wouldn't matter.

[jay87shot]

If everyone develops the way the should I think Pratt ends up being traded next offseason or maybe at the deadline. I think Jett gets a chance at SS and/or CF around midseason this year. 

In a perfect scenerio here is my 2028 lineup

C)Quero/Dinges  

1B)Burke/Adams or Fischer

2B) Turang (extension?)

SS) Made    (by all accounts he has the highest defense ceiling if he develops consistency)

3B)Durbin/Pena  (maybe Fischer)

RF) Sal

CF) Lara/Jett              (L/R platoon)

LF)Chourio

DH)Yeli

Utl)Jett, Pena, possibly Fischer

Rotation) Misi, Preister, Henderson, Sproat, Patrick, Letson, many other possiblities

Pen)Uribe, Yoho, Koenig, again probably to many options to list.

This is also not taking into effect whomever we get in likely trades for Contreras next offseason and whomever we would get for trading Pratt. If Pena hits well this year I could see Turang traded in the 2027-28 offseason and the Pena would be 2B and 3B would be Durbs and maybe Fischer. This is also leaving out Josh A, who I think would be ready by 2028, if he continues to rise and plays a good OF maybe Sal could be moved Josh A to LF and Chourio to RF.  There are really to many high ceiling prospects to predict to far, I don't think it would be crazy to see guys like Payne or Bitonti have chances to be everyday guys in a couple years if either one has a big 2026 or 27.

 

 

[igor67]

Catcher really feels like the big wild card. So many infield guys and a bunch of corner guys that it seems likely that we will have good options for awhile. Quero's development though is a big question and with only Dinges at the moment there just isn't the same level of depth. Not that I would call it a 'problem' but it is the position with the most potential to prove challenging to fill and come close to replacing Contrearas contributions.

[RobDeer 45]

12 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

It's also a much better farm now than it was in 2020. 

I was thinking the same thing.  Of the prospects listed, were many of them in the top 100 for MLB?  Right now it seems like we have way more high end prospects.  Of course the success rate is still low, but I like our chances with this group to get a couple very good players.  Time will tell!  

[RobDeer 45]

1 hour ago, igor67 said:

Catcher really feels like the big wild card. So many infield guys and a bunch of corner guys that it seems likely that we will have good options for awhile. Quero's development though is a big question and with only Dinges at the moment there just isn't the same level of depth. Not that I would call it a 'problem' but it is the position with the most potential to prove challenging to fill and come close to replacing Contrearas contributions.

Agreed.  Is there any chance we can do anything with Contreras or is he gone for sure?  Obviously I hate to see him go but the trade route next year has to be the move if he's going to get a huge contract when he goes on the market.  

[Playing Catch]

13 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Take a look at the Brewers Top prospect list from 2020. Four of their Top 10 never saw the majors (Tristen Lutz, Antoine Kelly,  Eduardo Perez and Herbert Kelly) three made token appearances for the Brewers (Small, Corey Ray, Feliciano), one was traded (Rasmussen) and Turang and Ashby are regulars in Milwaukee.

Point being, unless they are once in a lifetime lucky,  it is an inevitability that some of these prospects will flame out before Milwaukee and some will be flipped for different players, and who plays where will work itself out that way. 

I know you are dubious (rightfully) about prospects panning out, but I really believe that baseball's scouting and development are light-years ahead of where they were 5-10 years ago, so that the likelihood of players reaching their respective floors/ceilings is higher.

Point being, unless all of the recent success on that front is merely the Brewers being lucky, one can reasonably expect that many of the current crop of guys on the farm will come to harvest and be productive big leaguers. 

But that doesn't change the fact that there's a huge gap for what a "productive" big leaguer means, when comparing two guys like say, Turang and Ortiz (both defense-first, borderline Top-100 prospects), the difference is stark, but minimal, in terms of how slight adjustments can make a huge difference. Heck, it just wouldn't be that weird if Ortiz and Turang had really similar batting lines this season (if one improves and the other regresses).

Just for fun, here's a side-by-side of the two systems according to MLB Pipeline...

2025                        2020

Jesus Made             Brice Turang
Luis Pena                Ethan Small
Jett Williams          Mario Feliciano
Cooper Pratt            Tristan Lutz
Jeferson Quero        Aaron Ashby
Brandon Sproat       Antoine Kelly
Logan Henderson    Eduardo Garcia
Andrew Fischer        Hedbert Perez
Bishop Letson          Drew Rasmussen
Luke Adams             Corey Ray
Braylon Payne          Luis Medina
Marco Dinges           Carlos Rodriguez
Brady Ebel                Devin Williams
Luis Lara                   Zach Brown
Josh Adamczewski  Trey Supak

#29 Josh Knoth        Micah Bello
#30 Blake Burke      Eduarqui Fernandez

I don't think I'm being hyperbolic here. For those of us that really enjoy following the farm, there is NO COMPARISON. You can call in hind-sight if you like, but I remember how I felt about these guys at the time. And aside from 2020 Ashby, and maybe Rasmussen, I didn't have confidence that any of those guys could muster more than a bench role. I HOPED they would be good, of course, and considered the pathway to that end, but my confidence that Josh Adamczewski will someday be a regular big-league player is VERY high compared to any feelings I ever had about Mario Feliciano or Hedbert Perez reaching that pinnacle.

[tmwiese55]

Don't get me wrong, I'm generally fine with trading prospects other than true elites in your Made/Chourio class.  But folks acting like prospects never pan out or at such a bad rate seem to be forgetting all MLB players were prospects at one point. 

I randomly grabbed a 2018 top 100 list.  A lot of the players became solid contributors and of course tons of big stars

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/top-100-mlb-prospects-2018/

top 10:

1. Ronald Acuna | OF | Braves ??

2. Shohei Ohtani | RHP | Angels ??

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3B | Blue Jays ??

4. Eloy Jimenez | OF | White Sox ??

5. Victor Robles | OF | Nationals ??

6. Gleyber Torres | SS | Yankees ??

7. Nick Senzel | 3B | Reds ??

8. Bo Bichette | SS | Blue Jays ??

9. Fernando Tatis Jr | SS | Padres ??

10. Forrest Whitley | RHP | Astros ??

[gregmag]

18 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Take a look at the Brewers Top prospect list from 2020. Four of their Top 10 never saw the majors (Tristen Lutz, Antoine Kelly,  Eduardo Perez and Herbert Kelly) three made token appearances for the Brewers (Small, Corey Ray, Feliciano), one was traded (Rasmussen) and Turang and Ashby are regulars in Milwaukee.

Point being, unless they are once in a lifetime lucky,  it is an inevitability that some of these prospects will flame out before Milwaukee and some will be flipped for different players, and who plays where will work itself out that way. 

You make a sound point that some logjams clear themselves up. However, your comparison requires some context.  As of preseason 2020, MLB.com ranked the Brewers’ farm system dead last, and we had zero top-100 prospects.

 

 

[Jopal78]

7 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I know you are dubious (rightfully) about prospects panning out, but I really believe that baseball's scouting and development are light-years ahead of where they were 5-10 years ago, so that the likelihood of players reaching their respective floors/ceilings is higher.

Point being, unless all of the recent success on that front is merely the Brewers being lucky, one can reasonably expect that many of the current crop of guys on the farm will come to harvest and be productive big leaguers. 

But that doesn't change the fact that there's a huge gap for what a "productive" big leaguer means, when comparing two guys like say, Turang and Ortiz (both defense-first, borderline Top-100 prospects), the difference is stark, but minimal, in terms of how slight adjustments can make a huge difference. Heck, it just wouldn't be that weird if Ortiz and Turang had really similar batting lines this season (if one improves and the other regresses).

Just for fun, here's a side-by-side of the two systems according to MLB Pipeline...

2025                        2020

Jesus Made             Brice Turang
Luis Pena                Ethan Small
Jett Williams          Mario Feliciano
Cooper Pratt            Tristan Lutz
Jeferson Quero        Aaron Ashby
Brandon Sproat       Antoine Kelly
Logan Henderson    Eduardo Garcia
Andrew Fischer        Hedbert Perez
Bishop Letson          Drew Rasmussen
Luke Adams             Corey Ray
Braylon Payne          Luis Medina
Marco Dinges           Carlos Rodriguez
Brady Ebel                Devin Williams
Luis Lara                   Zach Brown
Josh Adamczewski  Trey Supak

#29 Josh Knoth        Micah Bello
#30 Blake Burke      Eduarqui Fernandez

I don't think I'm being hyperbolic here. For those of us that really enjoy following the farm, there is NO COMPARISON. You can call in hind-sight if you like, but I remember how I felt about these guys at the time. And aside from 2020 Ashby, and maybe Rasmussen, I didn't have confidence that any of those guys could muster more than a bench role. I HOPED they would be good, of course, and considered the pathway to that end, but my confidence that Josh Adamczewski will someday be a regular big-league player is VERY high compared to any feelings I ever had about Mario Feliciano or Hedbert Perez reaching that pinnacle.

I chose 2020 because that year is mature. We know what happened to those players. 2021 might be the last mature year, and there are six players in the Top 10 who aren’t in the Brewers plan anymore. 
 

It’s math 50% or more aren’t going to make it, unless like I said, it’s nice in a lifetime luck and the Brewers are busting at the seams with talent.

[wallus]

4 hours ago, gregmag said:

You make a sound point that some logjams clear themselves up. However, your comparison requires some context.  As of preseason 2020, MLB.com ranked the Brewers’ farm system dead last, and we had zero top-100 prospects.

 

 

Yes, I just CAN'T BELIEVE he didn't include those very important facts.

Still funny that some very good players came out of that list.

 

[Jopal78]

16 minutes ago, wallus said:

Yes, I just CAN'T BELIEVE he didn't include those very important facts.

Still funny that some very good players came out of that list.

 

Take a look at 2016 then. MLB Pipeline had their system ranked #1 in the mid season rankings.

Yet, just 3 players out of their Top 10 went on to become  regular contributors for the Brewers (Hader Arcia, and Williams).  

2 never saw the major leagues (Gilbert Lara, Kodi Medeiros.

Grisham was traded away. 

The other four were fringey major leaguers who were traded by Milwaukee and subsequently released/put on waivers by their new club, then bounced from organization to organization  (Cody Ponce, Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez and Jacob Nottingham).

Prospect love is cool especially to keep   hot stove going, but the real probability that more than a couple of the Brewers current crop of heralded prospects pan out as regular contributors in Milwaukee is slim.