Long Term is Patrick a Starter or reliever?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Love the success that the Brewers are having.  While I’m excited about Patrick becoming a “go to guy” in the bullpen, I worry that we’re not leaving ourselves the best possible 5 options for the rotation.

With QP still finding his way back and Woody not likely part of the future plan (next 3-5 years), do we really have 5 better starter options than Patrick?

Miz and Harrison are in there for sure. QP if healthy should be there.  That leaves Henderson, Sproat, Drohan, Gasser, Crow (if not Patrick) for the final 2 spots.

given how well he pitched for us last year and so far this year, I feel Patrick has proven more than any of the other 5 guys.

why not keep Patrick on the rotation and use guys like Sproat and Gasser in the bullpen for now?

as we all know, pitching depth is vital and all the guys should get a shot, but it just feels to me like Patrick has earned his spot.

go Brewers!  Sweep the scrubs

 

 

 

 

 

[Outlander]

Right handed pitching out of the bullpen has has been a weakness of this team so understandable why Patrick would move there. I like Patrick as a starter probably more than most but bullpen sure seems like the route the Brewers are going. Don't think the depth is as deep as it initially appears either with Gasser having much to prove and Crow only pitching 50 innings in 2025 and hardly at all in 2024. Not counting on Priester at all. Hoping Woodruff can be a starter down the stretch and into the playoffs but that hasn't worked real well the last few years. 

[sveumrules]

Out Getter.

Going back to last year, there are 144 pitchers in MLB with at least 100 IP as a starter. Here are some of Patrick's vitals along with their ranks on that leaderboard...

140 IP (105th) | 119 FB+ (17th) | 73 HR+ (19th)
107 K+ (47th) | 103 BB+ (103rd) | 102 K/BB+ (80th)
100 AVG+ (68th) | 100 WHIP+ (86th) | 109 LOB+ (29th)
82 ERA- (35th) | 86 FIP- (35th) | 103 xFIP- (89th)
3.4 rWAR (48th) | 2.9 fWAR (45th)

Despite an innings total just outside the Top 100, Chad has put up bottom line production just inside the Top 50...and that might not even be enough for him to crack the Brewers Top Five SP. Pretty good stuff.

With K/BB rates that are nothing special though, the whole enterprise has been propped up by getting really good HR prevention despite one of the higher fly ball rates in the pool with an assist from stranding runners at an above average clip. His xFIP- shows how much of a tightrope he has walked during those 140 IP.

If we look at how some of those rate stats move around during Patrick's 19 regular season IP out of the bullpen things like his fly ball rate (124 FB+) and K rate (109 K+) are pretty much the same. His HR rate goes up a bit (84 HR+), but improvements in his walk rate (75 BB+) and hit limiting (90 AVG+) have resulted in fewer base runners (80 WHIP+). Put it all together, with a slight uptick in strand rate (113 LOB+) to boot, and Chad comes out at 68 ERA- | 82 FIP- | 93 xFIP- in his limited pen time.

Between Priester & Woodruff's health issues, Sproat's inconsistency & 75 to 85 pitch ceiling, plus none of Henderson, Crow & Gasser really being built up for a full season's workload just yet, I'd guess that Patrick bounces back and forth between the bullpen and rotation as needed throughout the rest of the season.