Long Term is Patrick a Starter or reliever?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Love the success that the Brewers are having.  While I’m excited about Patrick becoming a “go to guy” in the bullpen, I worry that we’re not leaving ourselves the best possible 5 options for the rotation.

With QP still finding his way back and Woody not likely part of the future plan (next 3-5 years), do we really have 5 better starter options than Patrick?

Miz and Harrison are in there for sure. QP if healthy should be there.  That leaves Henderson, Sproat, Drohan, Gasser, Crow (if not Patrick) for the final 2 spots.

given how well he pitched for us last year and so far this year, I feel Patrick has proven more than any of the other 5 guys.

why not keep Patrick on the rotation and use guys like Sproat and Gasser in the bullpen for now?

as we all know, pitching depth is vital and all the guys should get a shot, but it just feels to me like Patrick has earned his spot.

go Brewers!  Sweep the scrubs

 

 

 

 

 

[Outlander]

Right handed pitching out of the bullpen has has been a weakness of this team so understandable why Patrick would move there. I like Patrick as a starter probably more than most but bullpen sure seems like the route the Brewers are going. Don't think the depth is as deep as it initially appears either with Gasser having much to prove and Crow only pitching 50 innings in 2025 and hardly at all in 2024. Not counting on Priester at all. Hoping Woodruff can be a starter down the stretch and into the playoffs but that hasn't worked real well the last few years. 

[sveumrules]

Out Getter.

Going back to last year, there are 144 pitchers in MLB with at least 100 IP as a starter. Here are some of Patrick's vitals along with their ranks on that leaderboard...

140 IP (105th) | 119 FB+ (17th) | 73 HR+ (19th)
107 K+ (47th) | 103 BB+ (103rd) | 102 K/BB+ (80th)
100 AVG+ (68th) | 100 WHIP+ (86th) | 109 LOB+ (29th)
82 ERA- (35th) | 86 FIP- (35th) | 103 xFIP- (89th)
3.4 rWAR (48th) | 2.9 fWAR (45th)

Despite an innings total just outside the Top 100, Chad has put up bottom line production just inside the Top 50...and that might not even be enough for him to crack the Brewers Top Five SP. Pretty good stuff.

With K/BB rates that are nothing special though, the whole enterprise has been propped up by getting really good HR prevention despite one of the higher fly ball rates in the pool with an assist from stranding runners at an above average clip. His xFIP- shows how much of a tightrope he has walked during those 140 IP.

If we look at how some of those rate stats move around during Patrick's 19 regular season IP out of the bullpen things like his fly ball rate (124 FB+) and K rate (109 K+) are pretty much the same. His HR rate goes up a bit (84 HR+), but improvements in his walk rate (75 BB+) and hit limiting (90 AVG+) have resulted in fewer base runners (80 WHIP+). Put it all together, with a slight uptick in strand rate (113 LOB+) to boot, and Chad comes out at 68 ERA- | 82 FIP- | 93 xFIP- in his limited pen time.

Between Priester & Woodruff's health issues, Sproat's inconsistency & 75 to 85 pitch ceiling, plus none of Henderson, Crow & Gasser really being built up for a full season's workload just yet, I'd guess that Patrick bounces back and forth between the bullpen and rotation as needed throughout the rest of the season.

 

[igor67]

It is entirely possible the team is not quite fully embracing piggyback starters but has found enough arms that can go more than an inning at a time that Patrick along with Drohan are in these new roles where sometimes they are traditional come in for an inning guys, but also there when you need a longer stint and you can still remain in the game. It's hard to argue with the results at the moment. And while Sproat may eventually end up in a similar role he is young enough it is worth trying to see if  you can build him up because he has the stuff to absolutely match Miz and Harrison as weapons in the rotation.

[CheezWizHed]

15 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Out Getter.

...

Between Priester & Woodruff's health issues, Sproat's inconsistency & 75 to 85 pitch ceiling, plus none of Henderson, Crow & Gasser really being built up for a full season's workload just yet, I'd guess that Patrick bounces back and forth between the bullpen and rotation as needed throughout the rest of the season.

 

This. 

I've been a big proponent of Patrick starting last year, but the more I see of him the more I understand why the Brewers are using him the way they are.  As a starter, he is probably more of a 4 or 5 (yes, I know his stats will say otherwise but that is mostly because the Brewers are limiting his exposure). 

His best ability for the team is his flexibility.  Spot starts when needed, multiple relief innings to backup a short start, and even some high leverage single innings.  Not many guys can handle that variety mentally.  

Sproat clearly has higher potential as a starter... just got to get him over that 80 pitch hump.  Henderson, Gasser, and Crow are pretty similar stuff-wise to Patrick.  Crow has an elite CB that might distinguish him a bit though.  Likewise with Henderson and his change.  And lefties (Gasser) always get extra opportunities. I thought Drohan was going to be a AAAA SP or BP guy... now I'm not so sure. 

Oddly, it is probably Patrick's flexibility that works against him being a consistent starter. 

[Playing Catch]

There was a thread earlier this season about this topic, and at the time, I wanted Patrick in the rotation due to the history the Brewers have had developing young pitchers beginning with bullpen work, whether that leads to a backend role, like Hader, a swingman role, like Tobias Myers/Chad Patrick, or a starting role, like Burnes/Woodruff. So I wanted to just keep Patrick in the rotation to ease the transition for the young guns.

However, the young guns have taken to the starting roles so comfortably, and as many have noted, Patrick has been solid working in relief, so I'm now totally onboard with Patrick moving full-time into a bullpen role of some kind.

I don't care at all about using the length the lengthy bullpen guys have to offer. Instead I embrace it. Therefore, I'd love for Patrick to be a RH flex-piece out of the pen, like Ashby has been from the left, and let him roll through an order a couple of times.

I think the Baseball World is ready for a new appreciation for long-relievers, with so many 5-and-dive guys in the league. They just need to re-brand the role, as swingmen have the long-standing reputation as being the last guys in the pen. With Ashby and Patrick, too, you can bring them in to finish an inning with one batter on back-to-backs to mitigate their weekly pitch-counts without sacrificing bullpen depth day-to-day.

This is all with the hope that Uribe and Megill return to form, and that their remaining one-inning lefties (Hall/Rob Z/Fitzpatrick) can stay healthy and perform well-enough. (And it's easy enough to move Ashby to that role, and backfill with the rotation depth).